Bets For This Season?!

[BFritz21]

I'm heading to training camp on Friday. Anyone else going?

Going to be focused on the line and Joe's mobility with him lining up under center.

Also, while I'm over there, I figured I should stop in Hard Rock Sportsbook to place some bets on the season.

Burrow's only +900 to win MVP, which is sad but I think he's a no-brainer if he can stay healthy. The only competition would be Mahomes, but I think that Burrow just blows the league and fans away now that he finally has a line that can protect him.

I'm laying at least a hundred on that Friday and probably more when I go back on other days.

Ja'Marr is +1,000 to win offensive player of the year, which I think he has a huge year now that Burrow finally has time to throw him the ball.

Burton is +7,500 to win offensive rookie of the year, so I'll probably throw some money on that just for the hell of it. As our #3 receiver, with how many points we'll be putting up, he could easily gain some interest for that.

We're +1,200 to win it all, which I'll obviously put a few hundred on that.

Any other bets I should make?

I have my cousin taking me Friday and then other people on Facebook have said they'll take me, so it shouldn't be a problem to find rides.

Anyone else going that would want to chat?

How do I get tickets? (I haven't looked yet but just wondering if anyone knows.)

[Essex Johnson]

This is season ticket only scrimmage, I don't think you can get in without going with a season ticket holder

[WeezyBengal]

There's no chance I'd touch that Burton OROY bet. Not enough balls to go around.

[Essex Johnson]

I think Stroud is 2nd best odds now and with their division, the solid offseason with FA and draft , I think he might be a the better bet

[WeezyBengal]

I think Stroud and the Texans are going to take a step back this year. They aren't going to surprise anyone and there is tape out on Stroud. The Texans do a ton in their offense to help him. Teams will figure it out.

[Sled21]

I agree with Weezy, Burton as OROY is a bad bet simply because of Chase, Higgins, and the improved TE and RB rooms.

[BFritz21]

I'm presenting at a hotel up in Cincinnati next Friday and I'm going to stop at the casino on the way home to place some bets.

Burrow to win MVP and us to win the ship, of course, but then I might also toss some coin on Chase for offensive player of the year because, if Burrow really is as healthy and as mobile as he has looked, with an offensive line for once, I think he has a massive year.

I'm going to throw some money on us going undefeated in the regular season because betting $100 wins $12,000, so why not?

Anyone else going to place any bets on the season? What do you like? What else should I consider?

[Soonerpeace]

I would certainly bet the over on win total and bet we make AFC Championship

[BFritz21]

(08-11-2024, 10:38 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I would certainly bet the over on win total and bet we make AFC Championship

I like those too but you'd have to put a lot of money on them to make any real profit, and I'm just nervous because, even with our recent success, we still have our luck.

[Bengalbug]

Not bengals…

Derrick Henry rushing yards and TDs.

950.5 and 10.5 respectively.

That works out to 56 yards/game and .62 tds/game.
If Henry averages 4.2 yards/carry, which he did last year in a worse spot, he only needs 13.3 carries/game. Derrick Henry has only one season below that, 932 yards, over the last 6 years (since he became a starter). He only played 8 games. That’s also the only season he wouldn’t have hit his TD prop, but he still hit 10.

Gus Edward’s fell into the end zone 13 times last year.

Sure, Henry is old. Sure, ravens lost some o-line, but these are borderline disrespectful for a generational RB.

I’m seeing a very good year for Henry in that offense, 280 carries, 1,250 yards and somewhere around 15+ TDs.

This would be around a 4.5 YPC, and almost a TD a game. But that’s about what he did on a horrible offense, and now he is going to be with “arguably” the best rushing QB all time and an offense that will have more red zone possessions.

[RegularGuy22]

I'd bet the Bengals struggle in their own division again, injuries will hurt them again, they already are, they won't have a running game and continue to try the screen pass to whoever that loses yards like the last few years. The defense will play safe zone and give up big plays again all over the field. The lack of run game will haunt and force Zac and Burrow to throw 40 passes a game. Opposing D's will pin their ears back and stampede Joe once they see we can't run on them. This is all with Chase playing. Haven't really changed much, new OC likely running the same plays, new RB1, Stone and Bell in the D, same Oline, same coaches. Looking like another 9-8 maybe 10-7 season to me without a MAJOR injury.

[BFritz21]

(08-12-2024, 12:06 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: Not bengals…

Derrick Henry rushing yards and TDs.

950.5 and 10.5 respectively.

That works out to 56 yards/game and .62 tds/game.
If Henry averages 4.2 yards/carry, which he did last year in a worse spot, he only needs 13.3 carries/game.  Derrick Henry has only one season below that, 932 yards, over the last 6 years (since he became a starter).  He only played 8 games.  That’s also the only season he wouldn’t have hit his TD prop, but he still hit 10.

Gus Edward’s fell into the end zone 13 times last year.

Sure, Henry is old.  Sure, ravens lost some o-line, but these are borderline disrespectful for a generational RB.  

I’m seeing a very good year for Henry in that offense, 280 carries, 1,250 yards and somewhere around 15+ TDs.

This would be around a 4.5 YPC, and almost a TD a game.  But that’s about what he did on a horrible offense, and now he is going to be with “arguably” the best rushing QB all time and an offense that will have more red zone possessions.

That does sound like a pretty safe bet!

Thanks!

(08-12-2024, 12:13 AM)RegularGuy22 Wrote: I'd bet the Bengals struggle in their own division again, injuries will hurt them again, they already are, they won't have a running game and continue to try the screen pass to whoever that loses yards like the last few years. The defense will play safe zone and give up big plays again all over the field. The lack of run game will haunt and force Zac and Burrow to throw 40 passes a game. Opposing D's will pin their ears back and stampede Joe once they see we can't run on them. This is all with Chase playing. Haven't really changed much, new OC likely running the same plays, new RB1, Stone and Bell in the D, same Oline, same coaches. Looking like another 9-8 maybe 10-7 season to me without a MAJOR injury.

Are you high?!  

Have you not seen how much healthier is and how he has been taking snaps under center? That will improve the run game by a great deal, and so will the line being better.

The run blocking didn't look great in preseason, but they'll get it figured out, especially once the defense realizes they can't keep too many defenders in the box because of the general Burrow threat.

[RegularGuy22]

No, not high, gave that up decades ago, was fun at the time though. It's the same O'line with a new RT with the same O'line coach that many here are not in favor of. It's the same offense basically w/o Mixon. Couple players have changed but the same coaches, plays and play calls. Only been 1 practice game so we'll see. Bengals always always look terrible in preseason. Hey, I hope all the well wishing and praising comes true but after decades of being let down after all the preseason hoopla I never get too excited. To me, the Bengals are a team always rebuilding but never get it built. They are very good at giving fans a false sense of security.

And as far as Burrow being a threat, there are many QB's in the league that are just as much a threat as Burrow if not more. Mahomes comes to mind, 3 out of 4 SB titles in 6 years? That's a threat. Burrow isn't in his class yet.

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(08-12-2024, 12:19 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: That does sound like a pretty safe bet!

Thanks!

Are you high?!  

Have you not seen how much healthier is and how he has been taking snaps under center? That will improve the run game by a great deal, and so will the line being better.

The run blocking didn't look great in preseason, but they'll get it figured out, especially once the defense realizes they can't keep too many defenders in the box because of the general Burrow threat.

What exactly makes you think "They'll figure out" the run game? We've been trying to "figure out" the run game for years now. I'm not sure how you could have any confidence we will magically figure it out now lol. 

[BFritz21]

(08-12-2024, 03:19 PM)Lucius Cincinnatus Wrote: What exactly makes you think "They'll figure out" the run game? We've been trying to "figure out" the run game for years now. I'm not sure how you could have any confidence we will magically figure it out now lol. 

1a Burrow taking the snaps from under center. It gives the defense a lot less time to react and make a decision to commit to stopping the run. 

1b It also allows the backs to hit the hole faster.

2 We'll run the ball more, making us less predictable.

3 Burrow being healthy means a lot better passing game, which means that defenses can't load the box and they'll have less time to react.

4 We have better linemen- Both Browns at tackle (and Mims), and Burrow under center will help the run game and prevent the defense from just teeing off on the pass rush.

[RegularGuy22]

We have the same lineman. T. Brown hasn't set foot on the field yet and Mims is a raw rookie. Until we have a top 5 running game we will never be taken seriously as a real offensive threat. Zac and JB are pass happy, the entire league knows it and is why we are a 1 dimensional offense. Burrow under center does nothing for the run game if our front 5 can't move guys out of the way.

Years past Mixon was the problem, now I read C. Brown is the problem, when Zack Moss fails to be a star then what?

[BFritz21]

(08-12-2024, 04:14 PM)RegularGuy22 Wrote: We have the same lineman. T. Brown hasn't set foot on the field yet and Mims is a raw rookie. Until we have a top 5 running game we will never be taken seriously as a real offensive threat. Zac and JB are pass happy, the entire league knows it and is why we are a 1 dimensional offense. Burrow under center does nothing for the run game if our front 5 can't move guys out of the way.

Years past Mixon was the problem, now I read C. Brown is the problem, when Zack Moss fails to be a star then what?

We have Trent Brown and Mims new, and, like I said, Burrow being under center will help out a lot, as well as moving on from Mixon and having Moss and Brown at back.

We'll dedicate more to the run this year because of a healthier Joe and a better line.

[Soonerpeace]

(08-12-2024, 12:13 AM)RegularGuy22 Wrote: I'd bet the Bengals struggle in their own division again, injuries will hurt them again, they already are, they won't have a running game and continue to try the screen pass to whoever that loses yards like the last few years. The defense will play safe zone and give up big plays again all over the field. The lack of run game will haunt and force Zac and Burrow to throw 40 passes a game. Opposing D's will pin their ears back and stampede Joe once they see we can't run on them. This is all with Chase playing. Haven't really changed much, new OC likely running the same plays, new RB1, Stone and Bell in the D, same Oline, same coaches. Looking like another 9-8 maybe 10-7 season to me without a MAJOR injury.

If you don’t think this team is better than 10-7 with their schedule provided good health then we aren’t following the same team. We were 9-8 last year. Joe was 5-2 when he played the entire game healthy. You are right in some of your assessments actually if we are going to get as far as the AFC Championship. We need to run the ball better. The defense needs to step up.

[BFritz21]

(08-12-2024, 09:53 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: If you don’t think this team is better than 10-7 with their schedule provided good health then we aren’t following the same team. We were 9-8 last year. Joe was 5-2 when he played the entire game healthy. You are right in some of your assessments actually if we are going to get as far as the AFC Championship. We need to run the ball better. The defense needs to step up.

I was wondering if I was the only one that read that.

I can't believe how much he's underestimating how much Burrow under center will improve our offense by making it easier to run and not allowing defenses to just tee off.

Defense needs to strep up but hopefully they can get to the quarterback and Bell, Battle, and Stone can take care of the secondary with Turner, Hill, and Hilton.

[RegularGuy22]

10-7 would be a good season for them. They split with the div. which is tough to do there is 3 Loss, KC a L, Tenn, Dallas, and Phil all could be an L. That's 10-7. They have their work cut out for them. Any given Sunday. Too early to tell. They may go 8-9 or..they may kick azz and go 12-5. They must develop a solid run game and they must have a solid run stop D front and solid D secondary that doesn't give up to many deep balls. We don't know how these other teams are going to develop, some may really surprise.

We talk and talk and talk about how good they SHOULD be, but the great equalizer...unexpected injuries to key players can ruin plans.

I'm not underestimating anything. Burrow being under center doesn't automatically make them a good run team or a better offense.