Reds - playoffs or no ?

[*bengalfan74*]

With 40 games left on a scale of 1-10 what do you think the Reds chances are? I'll say 4, trying to be optimistic.

There are currently 6 teams ahead of the Reds (59-61) in Wins. The NL west has two teams D'backs and Padres both with 68 wins, I highly doubt the Reds can surpass them barring a major flop. So that leaves one spot open between the Reds, Giants, Cards, and Braves and Mets. And that's not counting the Cubs. 5/6 teams and 1 spot.

A lot has to go right for the Reds down the stretch to have any chance. Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott have to have like 10 wins between them and Martinez needs to add a win or two. The bullpen has to not collapse. And the big one - the offense can't fall flat on it's face again for a 10 game stretch.

We've got some stiff competition ahead with series' vs. the Royals, Brewers, Astros, Mets, Braves, Twins, and Cleveland. So they've got to be on point from here on out. And they pretty much have to sweep or at a minimum win the series against the bad/average teams.

Here's to hoping they get HOT now.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

2

They haven't had a winning record since May 1st. If you aren't a winner for 3.5 straight months, I just assume you are who you have shown you are.

As for the competition ahead, apparently we have the 5th hardest remaining SoS. Other folks in competition for the 3rd wildcard spot...
Braves: 17th remaining SoS
Mets: 16th remaining SoS
Giants: 7th remaining SoS
Cardinals: 4th remaining SoS
Cubs: 28th remaining SoS

[Stewy]

(08-14-2024, 04:03 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: With 40 games left on a scale of 1-10 what do you think the Reds chances are? I'll say 4, trying to be optimistic.

There are currently 6 teams ahead of the Reds (59-61) in Wins. The NL west has two teams D'backs and Padres both with 68 wins, I highly doubt the Reds can surpass them barring a major flop. So that leaves one spot open between the Reds, Giants, Cards, and Braves and Mets. And that's not counting the Cubs. 5/6 teams and 1 spot.

A lot has to go right for the Reds down the stretch to have any chance. Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott have to have like 10 wins between them and Martinez needs to add a win or two. The bullpen has to not collapse. And the big one - the offense can't fall flat on it's face again for a 10 game stretch.

We've got some stiff competition ahead with series' vs. the Royals, Brewers, Astros, Mets, Braves, Twins, and Cleveland. So they've got to be on point from here on out. And they pretty much have to sweep or at a minimum win the series against the bad/average teams.

Here's to hoping they get HOT now.

In other words they have to get better in every facet of the game beyond that which they have shown up to this point.  Unlikely.  They are what they are.

Their biggest problem is pitching.  Their bullpen blows and in this day and age, bullpens are critical to success.  They have 1-2 over achieving starting pitchers and an inconsistent offense.  While I believe the future is bright, this is not their year.

My answer is 2.

[CJD]

I give them a 3.

It's not impossible, but they'd kind of...fundamentally have to change the way they play the game to be consistent enough to sneak into the playoffs. They're 4.5 games out after going on a 3 game winning streak. Can they have a 12 game winning streak like last season to really restart the season? Or are they just going to win 3, lose 2, win 2, lose 3, win 2, lose 3, win 4, lose 2, win 1, lose 3 etc for the rest of the season?

[cinci4life]

Going 5. They are on the verge of sweeping the Cards and jumping to 2nd in the division. They have time to get that last wild card if they can stay hot.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-14-2024, 05:45 PM)Stewy Wrote: In other words they have to get better in every facet of the game beyond that which they have shown up to this point.  Unlikely.  They are what they are.

Their biggest problem is pitching.  Their bullpen blows and in this day and age, bullpens are critical to success.  They have 1-2 over achieving starting pitchers and an inconsistent offense.  While I believe the future is bright, this is not their year.

My answer is 2.

Right

As has been said it's not impossible, but fairly unlikely.

[Stewy]

(08-14-2024, 10:05 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Right

As has been said it's not impossible, but fairly unlikely.

You asked for responses.  *shrugs*

[*ochocincos*]

After the sweep, Reds now just 1 game under .500 and 4.5 games out of the last WC spot.

The first 2 WCs are likely out of the Reds' reach, as that's 8.5 games behind ARZ and SD.
So the question is...can Reds gain 5 games in the standings with 41 games left?
It's difficult to do, and they don't have a super easy SoS, but it's possible.

At this point, Reds have been under .500 for 60+ games straight now, so I'm not expecting them to make the playoffs.
We've seen quite a few times this season where they got hot and people thought they were turning the corner, only for them to s**t the bed after and fall multiple games under .500 after.

Reds have two series against the AL in a row (Royals, Blue Jays), then they get the Pirates and the lowly A's.
If they can get through that stretch and end up just a couple games out of the WC, they may have a shot.
However, last year showed me they weren't quite there yet from a consistency standpoint and they don't seem to be again this year, so I'm skeptical.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(08-14-2024, 05:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 2

They haven't had a winning record since May 1st. If you aren't a winner for 3.5 straight months, I just assume you are who you have shown you are.

The Reds were 9-18 in May, but they are just over .500 in the other months and they are 8-5 in August

2-1 March - 2-1
14-13 April - 16-14
9-18 May - 25-32
14-13 June - 39-45
13-11 July - 52-56
8-5 August - 60-61

They went 4-16 to start May before sweeping the Dodgers which started a 12-3 run that finished off their devastating May and gave them a good push into June.

They are 44-48 since April 29th when they were 16-13. That or their over all record of 60-61 might be who they are . . . However . . . 

 . . . They are 40-31 since their loss to San Diego on May 23rd. That might be who they are. If that's the case, then they have a damn fine chance of making the playoffs because they have good to great pitching and that always gives you a chance.. The Giants just beat the Braves today so now the Reds are only 4 back with at least 3, probably 4 more games vs the Braves

I give them a 6.



And I think that you pore over stats a bit too much if you're worried about strength of schedule with this team.

Up 2-0 on the Braves, won the season series with the Phillies, Dodgers and swept the Yankees while getting swept by Washington and Detroit. I'm more worried about them facing a 3-9 pitcher with a 5.65 ERA than I am about them facing any winning team not named the Brewers. Everything is a straight up coin flip with these guys. That's what makes it so intriguing to watch.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-16-2024, 01:26 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: And I think that you pore over stats a bit too much if you're worried about strength of schedule with this team.

Up 2-0 on the Braves, won the season series with the Phillies, Dodgers and swept the Yankees while getting swept by Washington and Detroit. I'm more worried about them facing a 3-9 pitcher with a 5.65 ERA than I am about them facing any winning team not named the Brewers. Everything is a straight up coin flip with these guys. That's what makes it so intriguing to watch.

Except it isn't. They have a 24-36 record against teams >.500.

So of the 6 teams competing for the final wildcard spot, we have both the hardest schedule remaining and worst record against winning teams.

It's possible, hence my 2, but it's unlikely. 

- - - - -
A thing worth remembering/keeping and eye on... we're in mid-August and both Greene and Lodolo have already either matched or surpassed the highest amount of innings they've ever thrown in a year.

[samhain]

My guess is no. This team has been close to breaking 500 several times this summer. They always shit the bed. The manager takes dumb risks and assembles some real head-scratcher lineups.

If they make it, I'm here for it. They have no shortage of talent. I just continue to feel that this is a poorly managed team that plays dumb baseball way too often.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-16-2024, 09:24 PM)samhain Wrote: My guess is no.  This team has been close to breaking 500 several times this summer.  They always shit the bed.  The manager takes dumb risks and assembles some real head-scratcher lineups.  

If they make it, I'm here for it.  They have no shortage of talent.  I just continue to feel that this is a poorly managed team that plays dumb baseball way too often.

For sure

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-16-2024, 04:17 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Except it isn't. They have a 24-36 record against teams >.500.

So of the 6 teams competing for the final wildcard spot, we have both the hardest schedule remaining and worst record against winning teams.

It's possible, hence my 2, but it's unlikely. 

- - - - -
A thing worth remembering/keeping and eye on... we're in mid-August and both Greene and Lodolo have already either matched or surpassed the highest amount of innings they've ever thrown in a year.

Ugh. I wish I had been forced to eat crow.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-14-2024, 05:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 2

They haven't had a winning record since May 1st. If you aren't a winner for 3.5 straight months, I just assume you are who you have shown you are.

As for the competition ahead, apparently we have the 5th hardest remaining SoS. Other folks in competition for the 3rd wildcard spot...
Braves: 17th remaining SoS
Mets: 16th remaining SoS
Giants: 7th remaining SoS
Cardinals: 4th remaining SoS
Cubs: 28th remaining SoS

This is my confidence level as well.

It's not logical to see a team be up and down for 5 months and think they are going to magically be different the last month of the season.

Thinking they will is just blind faith.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-18-2024, 08:55 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Ugh. I wish I had been forced to eat crow.

Well you bring up a really good point from what you posted too.

Even if the Reds were to magically make the playoffs, is there really any confidence they wouldn't get their a**es whooped when playing the Phillies, Brewers, or Dodgers in the first round?

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-19-2024, 05:21 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Well you bring up a really good point from what you posted too.

Even if the Reds were to magically make the playoffs, is there really any confidence they wouldn't get their a**es whooped when playing the Phillies, Brewers, or Dodgers in the first round?

Any fairy tale chance the Reds may have had at making the playoffs is 100% over. And it was at best an extreme longshot.

The Reds, if they intend to challenge for the post season next year are going to have to retool their lineup. Benson has to go. They need to do some deep thinking on who of India, CES, Marte, McClain, Friedl and so on are long term parts of this team? 

And they have to get a real "ACE" starter. Greene may be a good uun. But after that it's a lot of questions. Lodolo, Abbott, and Ashcraft all seem to be lower end #4 #5 starters at best. Can Lowder come up next year?

I still believe they have to get a real top shelf starter and a real RH bat in the outfield. Or we're just going to go thru another year of kinda close but no cigar.

[*psychdoctor*]

This Red's team has lost their way. I know Encarnacion-Strand and Mclain were injured but losing all those close games killed their chances of making playoffs. The Reds are not a good organization at this point, and the new owner is evidence of the lethargy engulfing the team. I have no words for this team this year.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-19-2024, 05:57 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Any fairy tale chance the Reds may have had at making the playoffs is 100% over. And it was at best an extreme longshot.

The Reds, if they intend to challenge for the post season next year are going to have to retool their lineup. Benson has to go. They need to do some deep thinking on who of India, CES, Marte, McClain, Friedl and so on are long term parts of this team? 

And they have to get a real "ACE" starter. Greene may be a good uun. But after that it's a lot of questions. Lodolo, Abbott, and Ashcraft all seem to be lower end #4 #5 starters at best. Can Lowder come up next year?

I still believe they have to get a real top shelf starter and a real RH bat in the outfield. Or we're just going to go thru another year of kinda close but no cigar.

I'm willing to say Abbott could be a solid #3.
His ERA's been under 4 last season and this season.

Lodolo's fallen off a cliff.
Dude has given up 23 earned runs in his last 5 outings.
Until he's pitching consistently like he was the first half of the year, he's #4 or #5.

Ashcraft is probably what he is at this point after coming up on the end of his 3rd MLB season and being demoted. #4 best case.

To me though, the more frequent problem during the season has been the quiet bats. The drubbings happened, but not nearly as often as the hitters going MIA.
Reds need to learn to better hit against uncommon opponents.

I think if going into next season as-is, the starting rotation should be:
Greene (assuming he actually only has to miss part/rest of this season and not more)
Martinez (if he signs his player-option)
Abbott
Lodolo
Call-up/Ashcraft/Williamson

Reds should have some $$ available with Montas not going to be here next year, so they could add another arm if the wanted. Even more if Martinez declines his player option.

For bats, they NEED to bring up Hinds.

As you said, Benson is done.
Let Hinds have his roster spot.
Roll with Steer, Friedl, Fraley, Hinds, and one more in the OF. Either Fairchild, a FA, or even try EDLC out there.
For IF, Candelario is ok but not the bat you want for corner IF.
If McLain plays like he did last season, slot him as a long-term SS/2B.
India is serviceable and the fans like him, so I'm ok if he's the 2B.

If keeping EDLC in the INF, I'm putting him at 3B and having an INF of EDLC, McLain, India, and CES/Candelario.

With that said, there's room to add 1-2 bats because of the DH, so I'd look to get someone who can do DH and play corner IF/OF periodically.
Reds should have $30+ mill they can pay out to ARB+FA for 2025, if not close to $50 mill.