Ja' Marr Chase's Contract: Should Bengals let him walk?

[J24]

(09-26-2024, 10:11 AM)Whatever Wrote: You completely lost me at paying Tee $30 mil a year.

No player is untradable, imo.  But I need 2 1st's to even consider moving Chase.

So, trading Chase for less than his value because you don't want to pay him what he's worth and then being forced to resign Tee for half again what he's worth because our WR corps will be in such bad shape really doesn't make sense at all.

Then we disagree!

[Whatever]

(09-25-2024, 10:01 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: There is literally zero evidence of this. At LSU he had both Jefferson and Chase, and in Cincinnati he’s always had at least Chase or Tee.

And before anyone brings up Brady or Mahomes they both had HoF TE’s, and HoF HC’s. Asking Burrow to carry a Zac Taylor/Dan Pitcher offense with no high end weapons would be a disaster.

Bottom line is this.  You can't assume Joe Burrow will do Brady/Mahomes things until you actually SEE Burrow do Brady/Mahomes things.  

I love Burrow, but it may be time to be realistic about him.  Is he good enough to win a SB?  Yes.  Is he a guy like Mahomes or Allen that can carry an offense?  No.  He just doesn't have the physical gifts those guys have.  

Look around the league at other QB's.  Sam Darnold has been a joke forever.  Now, with JJ and another 1st round WR in Hunter, he looks like a stud.  Geno Smith washed out in how many places?  Now with Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njaba, he looks like a mid-tier NFL starter.  The Browns put nothing around Baker from a WR standpoint and ran him out of town.  Now with Evans and Godwin, he's making them look foolish.

[*Synric*]

(09-26-2024, 10:52 AM)Whatever Wrote: Bottom line is this.  You can't assume Joe Burrow will do Brady/Mahomes things until you actually SEE Burrow do Brady/Mahomes things.  

I love Burrow, but it may be time to be realistic about him.  Is he good enough to win a SB?  Yes.  Is he a guy like Mahomes or Allen that can carry an offense?  No.  He just doesn't have the physical gifts those guys have.  

Look around the league at other QB's.  Sam Darnold has been a joke forever.  Now, with JJ and another 1st round WR in Hunter, he looks like a stud.  Geno Smith washed out in how many places?  Now with Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njaba, he looks like a mid-tier NFL starter.  The Browns put nothing around Baker from a WR standpoint and ran him out of town.  Now with Evans and Godwin, he's making them look foolish.

Joe is moving the ball perfectly fine but he has been terrible in the redzone. Some of that is new and young receivers but some is Joe. Burrow is 6/19 for 3 TDs inside the 20 (5 of 13 and all 3 TDs are from inside the 10). With Tee back and as he gets more comfortable with the new receivers I can see that percentage climb. Especially if the rush offense continues to improve. 

PS. Sam Darnold is crushing the redzone. 

[Whatever]

(09-26-2024, 10:34 AM)J24 Wrote: Then we disagree!

I just don't get the logic.  Chase signing a 4/$160 extension actually only carries a $36 mil APY, as he still has the 5th year option.  Tee has no remaining years, so he's a full $30 mil APY.  You can't even sign one quality starter with the alleged cap savings from this move.  So, you basically have to pray you hit on another Chase caliber player with one of the two picks(unlikely) and also hit on the other to net anything positive out of this plan of action.

On top of it, Tee is very replaceable.  Using yards as a production metric, he is currently 5th in his draft class behind Jefferson, Lamb, Aiyuk, and Pittman.  He averages approximately 930 yards/year.  Look at '21.  Chase, Brown, Waddle, and Smith all average more per year.  '22, you have Olave, Wilson, Pickens, and London.  '23 you have Puka, Rice, Flowers, Reed, and Addison.  There's 4 or more WR's every year coming into the league that are superior to Tee Higgins.

[3wt]

(09-25-2024, 04:00 PM)Synric Wrote: It's never better to "use the money elsewhere" because you end up with mediocre free agents that don't affect the game the same way.

This

[*ochocincos*]

I voted no.
Chase will have some games where he gets gameplanned out with double/triple coverage. It happens.
But he also has games like against WAS where he puts up 100+ yards and multiple TDs.
Right now, Chase is on pace for another 1200+ yard season.

You don't let 1200+ yard WRs walk.
Only 12 players had 1200+ yards last year.
Chase is also 12th in receiving yards this year.

Sign him to $30+ mill APY on a 3+ year contract, even if it means losing Higgins, who has had way more injury issues and lower production than Chase anyway.

[Bengalitis]

It's a team game... we already have our #1 WR Chase, and are 0-3. We lack the players. With this org, just with Chase ain't gonna get us the wins. Trade him.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-25-2024, 03:55 PM)J24 Wrote: So in essence do you want Chase at 160 or Tee at 90 + a new 3T, + a new NT, + a 1st rd pick , and a 2nd Rd pick.

You're getting a new 3T and a new NT for $10m/yr? Who? Rankins was $12.5m/yr on his own and he isn't the answer.

You would need another WR because Tee can't play a full starter's workload. Never has and probably never will. He peaked at 74.81% of the snaps in 2020. Then 64.60%, 68.38%, 52.67%, and so far this year he's already missed 2 whole games.

So really the question is do you want...
-All-Pro caliber #1 WR
or
-Unreliable lower-end #1 WR (and a much shittier backup WR playing instead 1/3rd+ of the time) + $10m/yr + 1st rd pick + 2nd rd pick (and ~$5.8m/yr of that $10m/yr would be used up by your draft picks, so you're only really freeing up roughly $4.2m/yr)

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-26-2024, 01:11 PM)Bengalitis Wrote: It's a team game... we already have our #1 WR Chase, and are 0-3. We lack the players.  With this org, just with Chase ain't gonna get us the wins. Trade him.

We already have our QB, LT, and DE, and are 0-3. Should trade Burrow, Hendrickson, and Orlando Brown, too. Think about how many more players we could get.

[007BengalsFan]

(09-25-2024, 03:55 PM)J24 Wrote: Yes; we should trade him. No, we should not just let him walk in free agency.

Chase is about to get a 4 year, 160 million dollar deal, and with 120 Million in guaranteed money. If you sign him to that deal; then we can kiss signing any other legit players to long term deals in free agency.

On the other hand if you sign Tee to a 3 year, 90 Million dollar deal, and 60 million guaranteed money. You probably could fit 1 or 2  more players who have decent contracts onto the team.

So in essence do you want Chase at 160 or Tee at 90 + a new 3T, + a new NT, + a 1st rd pick , and a 2nd Rd pick.

I would rather pay Chase 35 million per year vs giving Tee 30 million per year.  I dont think Chase is worth 35 million per year but Tee is certainly not worth 30 million.

[J24]

(09-26-2024, 06:44 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: I would rather pay Chase 35 million per year vs giving Tee 30 million per year.  I dont think Chase is worth 35 million per year but Tee is certainly not worth 30 million.

Chase is going to get 40  a year and he is going to get over 100 million guaranteed. Tee is going to get 25 to 30 million a year in the open market and will get over 50 guaranteed.

[007BengalsFan]

(09-26-2024, 06:51 PM)J24 Wrote: Chase is going to get 40  a year and he is going to get over 100 million guaranteed. Tee is going to get 25 to 30 million a year in the open market and will get over 50 guaranteed.

Chase should not get more than Jefferson.  I wouldnt sign Chase at 160 this year and I wouldnt do it next year.  140 million is more than fair to Chase.  I dont see how some of you guys keep trying to justify Chase getting a 4 year 160 million extension when Jefferson only got 140 for 4 years.  I dont see the Bengals offering Chase 20 million more next year when they didnt this year

[*bfine32*]

(09-26-2024, 06:58 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: Chase should not get more than Jefferson.  I wouldnt sign Chase at 160 this year and I wouldnt do it next year.  140 million is more than fair to Chase.  I dont see how some of you guys keep trying to justify Chase getting a 4 year 160 million extension when Jefferson only got 140 for 4 years.  I dont see the Bengals offering Chase 20 million more next year when they didnt this year

I was on the "Chase shouldn't get more than JJ" kick when the talk was signing him this past off-season. That meant I hate Chase,

But, if Chase has a "Chase Year" he should get more than JJ next off-season.

[Housh]

(09-26-2024, 01:11 PM)Bengalitis Wrote: It's a team game... we already have our #1 WR Chase, and are 0-3. We lack the players.  With this org, just with Chase ain't gonna get us the wins. Trade him.

With this logic why not trade Burrow....

USe the same exact logic

[J24]

(09-26-2024, 06:18 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You're getting a new 3T and a new NT for $10m/yr? Who? Rankins was $12.5m/yr on his own and he isn't the answer.

You would need another WR because Tee can't play a full starter's workload. Never has and probably never will. He peaked at 74.81% of the snaps in 2020. Then 64.60%, 68.38%, 52.67%, and so far this year he's already missed 2 whole games.

So really the question is do you want...
-All-Pro caliber #1 WR
or
-Unreliable lower-end #1 WR (and a much shittier backup WR playing instead 1/3rd+ of the time) + $10m/yr + 1st rd pick + 2nd rd pick (and ~$5.8m/yr of that $10m/yr would be used up by your draft picks, so you're only really freeing up roughly $4.2m/yr)

Let's me clear this up.

 The guranteed money is the main issue not the cap price. If you pay Chase he is going to double what Tee gets in guaranteed money. We're looking at  least 100 million  in guaranteed money and probably closer to 120 million for Chase. While Tee is probably going to get between 50 and 60 million in guaranteed money.





You can get a decent 3T for 18 to 21 Million a year with anywhere from 30 to 45 Million guranteed money and a  nose tackle for 15 to 20 million a year with with 15 to 25 in guranteed money.

So Chase at 120 million guranteed or Tee 60 million guaranteed + 3T at 40 Million guranteed + a NT at 20 million. guranteed. 

Yes, we're going to have cut players for it to work and yes we are going to have to draft a WR early next draft(even if we keep both Wrs we would draft another WR early in the next draft) to make it work it.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-26-2024, 07:31 PM)J24 Wrote: Let's me clear this up.

 The guranteed money is the main issue not the cap price. If you pay Chase he is going to double what Tee gets in guaranteed money. We're looking at  least 100 million  in guaranteed money and probably closer to 120 million for Chase. While Tee is probably going to get between 50 and 60 million in guaranteed money.





You can get a decent 3T for 18 to 21 Million a year with anywhere from 30 to 45 Million guranteed money and a  nose tackle for 15 to 20 million a year with with 15 to 25 in guranteed money.

So Chase at 120 million guranteed or Tee 60 million guaranteed + 3T at 40 Million guranteed + a NT at 20 million. guranteed. 

Yes, we're going to have cut players for it to work and yes we are going to have to draft a WR early next draft(even if we keep both Wrs we would draft another WR early in the next draft) to make it work it.

So then your original equation isn't very good if you're not including the people we'd need to both cut and required draft picks made to make it work.

$40m/yr and by your own numbers $63-71m/yr over a shorter number of years (so there's less time to move it around or backload it) IS a pretty significant cap difference that you can't just put on the backburner when talking about which option is better.

Not to mention that all of that is assuming there is even a really good $18-21m/yr 3T and $15-20m/yr NT are both available in FA in the first place, which I don't think there is. I just saw a list where right now BJ Hill is considered the 5th best DT in the 2025 FA class. Apparently it's a very weak IDL FA class. Alim McNeill is currently the highest rated IDL according to multiple lists I just checked.

[J24]

(09-26-2024, 07:48 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: So then your original equation isn't very good if you're not including the people we'd need to both cut and required draft picks made to make it work.

$40m/yr and by your own numbers $63-71m/yr over a shorter number of years (so there's less time to move it around or backload it) IS a pretty significant cap difference that you can't just put on the backburner when talking about which option is better.

Not to mention that all of that is assuming there is even a really good $18-21m/yr 3T and $15-20m/yr NT are both available in FA in the first place, which I don't think there is. I just saw a list where right now BJ Hill is considered the 5th best DT in the 2025 FA class. Apparently it's a very weak IDL FA class. Alim McNeill is currently the highest rated IDL according to multiple lists I just checked.

New question l; would you rather  have Tee Higgins contract 3 years, at 84 million with 55 million guaranteed + a NT, and + 3T + a 1st rd pick in 2025  and a  2nd Rd pick in 2025 or Chase at  4 years, 160 million, with 120 million guaranteed. That's the question; Yes or No!

There's merit to both answers; Chase is the best Wr game and arguably the best non QB in the game and in the other scenario you can practically fix the Dline and get two high rd picks. Along with signing Tee. It all depends on what you value. 

I think we can have a championship  caliber offense with Tee as the #1 WR and I think we can fix the interior Dline in the offseason with the money saved. 

While resigning Chase will only keep our Offense at a high level and we would still be pretty thin at the Dline

Secondly,  I disagree with your assessment on the free agency  interior defensive line. 

Milton Williams, Alim Mcneill,  and Osa Odighizuwa all fit what the Bengals want at 3T with age, production,  and athleticism requirements. Bobby Brown is really the only NT that fits the what the Bengals want.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-26-2024, 09:16 PM)J24 Wrote: I think we can have a championship  caliber offense with Tee as the #1 WR

If the team felt that way they never would have drafted Chase in the first place. All these Tee proposals are a moot point anyway though. They are not getting a deal done with that agent.

[Bengalitis]

(09-26-2024, 07:26 PM)Housh Wrote: With this logic why not trade Burrow....

USe the same exact logic

The QB has always been the leader of the offense, and runs it, dictates the plays and decides where the ball goes.  If the QB sucks the team tends to suck, if he does magic, he can make a bad offense look competent. Everybody else is expendable. 

[Whatever]

(09-26-2024, 09:16 PM)J24 Wrote: New question l; would you rather  have Tee Higgins contract 3 years, at 84 million with 55 million guaranteed + a NT, and + 3T + a 1st rd pick in 2025  and a  2nd Rd pick in 2025 or Chase at  4 years, 160 million, with 120 million guaranteed. That's the question; Yes or No!

There's merit to both answers; Chase is the best Wr game and arguably the best non QB in the game and in the other scenario you can practically fix the Dline and get two high rd picks. Along with signing Tee. It all depends on what you value. 

I think we can have a championship  caliber offense with Tee as the #1 WR and I think we can fix the interior Dline in the offseason with the money saved. 

While resigning Chase will only keep our Offense at a high level and we would still be pretty thin at the Dline

Secondly,  I disagree with your assessment on the free agency  interior defensive line. 

Milton Williams, Alim Mcneill,  and Osa Odighizuwa all fit what the Bengals want at 3T with age, production,  and athleticism requirements. Bobby Brown is really the only NT that fits the what the Bengals want.

How are you arriving at being able to sign a 3 tech and a NT?  

Chase's real APY due to still having a year left on his deal would be $36 mil per.  Tee's APY would be $28 mil. That's only an $8 mil cap savings.  Even if we use the $40 mil APY for Chase, it's still only a $12 mil savings.  BJ Hill has a $10 mil APY.  Rankins has a $13 mil APY.  If you're using true APY, you can't even get ONE player of their quality, let alone two.  If you're just going off new money, you'll only be able to sign one player of their caliber, meaning zero improvement.

You can't just sign two upgrades at DT because you want to sign two upgrades at DT for your scenario.  The math has to add up and it doesn't.  Now, if we're also letting Tee walk and trading Chase, you can rebuild the IDL in FA, but you leave the cupboard completely bare at WR.