I know a couple posters will be really upset to see this...

[jj22]

(10-10-2024, 11:58 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Score was 28-20 midway thru the 3rd and at the end of the 3rd QTR.


So, you think an 8 point lead is insurmountable? By a team that never punted all game? By a team that ended up scoring 33 points? Ok.

You do realize that had we recovered the onside kick - which I grant is highly improbably - we probably win that game. But I guess not since you thought the game was over in the 3rd QTR when the Bengals were down by a whopping 8 points.

Who didn't think the game was over at 28-13 in the 3rd never having made a stop against Washington's star QB? Sure in the gameday thread folks who spotted the loss coming (correctly mind you) at that point did. But to your credit there was those who slammed them for being fools. 

[XenoMorph]

i dont think ive seen anyone blaming burrow

[jj22]

(10-10-2024, 12:01 PM)PhilHos Wrote: True, but that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about Burrow being clutch. Burrow made a mistake, and STILL got the Bengals the lead on the next drive. That's the very definition of clutch from those that twist the definition to fit their agendas.


Yes, and most people without agendas put the blame on that INT on Chase, not Burrow.

Burrow played great in those games as he has all season so I'm not going to harp on this. Those plays didn't lose the games correct, but they didn't win them either. And that is what defines clutch. It's unfortunate, but a great game in a loss just doesn't. That's just a great game in a loss and means you can't and shouldn't be blamed for the loss. 

And Burrow did stare down Chase on that INT. But I'm not and never was trying to slam Burrow for his play these games. Just willing to highlight that when we need(ed) a TD (which is tough), FG, or even a 1st down, it didn't and hasn't happen, and hasn't for years now if anyone other than myself and those in my dm's, are willing to be honest. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-10-2024, 11:31 AM)jj22 Wrote: What was the score of the Washington game at the middle to end of the 3rd quarter? Did you forget? 

Clearly you did. 

That game was long over by the 4th.

And anytime you see a lot of yards in the 4th quarter you are dealing with losing teams and garbage time stats. QB's playing from behind. Opposing defenses sitting on leads in prevent mode.

Talk about intelligent. How do you not know this? That's why you don't see any top 5 QB's in that top 5.

But I get it. Yall have Burrow in with the Geno Smiths of the QB tier so now I understand where all this is coming from. 

I was viewing him as a top 5 QB. I get it. Those posters who have Burrow in that tier are the true Burrow haters. 

Long over, eh?  The Bengals scored a TD with 9:42 left in the 4th to make it 31-26 and failed at a 2pt conversion that would have cut it to 3. Is a 5 pt defecit with 9:42 to go in the 4th "over" to you? With a defensive stop on the next Wash drive, would the Bengals have been able to take the lead on that single possession? They obviously didn't get that stop but to say it was over at the end of the 3rd is absolutely ludicrous. 


Here's the thing. I like to believe i'm as honest as anyone you can find when it comes to Burrow supporters. I'm not afraid to point out his shortcomings when they happen or assign blame where others may not. Last night i was wondering how many times Burrow has had a chance, with the ball in his hands to tie or take the lead late in close games but it was too late for me to do any research then. So today i went and looked at all the Bengals one score losses and soon i will go watch the end of those games to find out how many times he failed to get that tie or lead and i'll update this post with the results. The thing is, thoughts of a young Aaron Rodgers have been dancing in my head lately in regards to Burrow not pulling games out late. I know specifically, in 2013, before the Bengals played the Pack in Cincy, people were posting "oh nooooez, A-Rod" and i made a post about, regardless of how elite he was, he's failed numerous times late in games and shouldn't really be considered a clutch QB.

So, for now i'll post the Bengals close losses with Burrow and later i'll watch the game to see what position he was in and how he did. 

Losses since 2020 with Burrow starting a game (injury games included). First number is point differential and 2nd number is how many times they've lost by that score. 

1 - 1
2 - 1
3 - 13 (twice in the playoffs)
4- 1
5 - 2
6 - 1
7 - 0
8 - 0

That's 19 opportunities to tie or take the lead late. There's at least one game (Bears) where they were down big and the final margin looked closer than it was. There may be more, didn't check for that specifically.
They've been "blown out" 9 time with 2 of those being his injury (season ending) games and the Browns were the team in 3 of those 9. 

I'll update this tonight or tomorrow, when i have time and as long as i don't start feeling any worse than i do now with this sinus bullshit. 

[*PhilHos*]

(10-10-2024, 12:02 PM)jj22 Wrote: Who didn't think the game was over at 28-13 in the 3rd never having made a stop against Washington's star QB? 

Everyone who's not an idiot.

(10-10-2024, 12:02 PM)jj22 Wrote: Sure in the gameday thread folks who spotted the loss coming (correctly mind you) at that point did. But to your credit there was those who slammed them for being fools. 

Really? You're using gameday thread folks? The same people who say the game is over in the 1st QTR after the other team scores in games we end up winning? GTFO

[jj22]

I appreciate the work. Hopefully you aren't doing this for me specifically but because you are as interested in if this is an issue or not as I am. And it should be discussed in the privacy of the Jungle where it's a safe space to have honest and open discourse about the players on the team. 

I just think when there is 1:25 left in the 4th down by a FG we should be able to trust the Offense gets it done like KC, INDY, Patriot fans with great QB's have in the past. And for some reason it just isn't happening and hasn't. The SB loss and the AFCC loss is painful to think of given the number of opportunities we had. And this is going to seem like I am picking on Burrow but his interceptions late in the AFCC loss goes kinda unspoken and forgiven around here.

[jj22]

(10-10-2024, 12:18 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Everyone who's not an idiot.

Well I got news for you regarding those "idiots" who realized a loss was incoming... 

[jj22]

(10-10-2024, 12:18 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Really? You're using gameday thread folks? The same people who say the game is over in the 1st QTR after the other team scores in games we end up winning? GTFO

Bengals games are really easy to figure out. If we are up early we tend to win. Most rough starts end in losses. That's the 1 thing about the ZT era. There's typically no blown leads (outside of last Sunday), nor is there typically any dramatic comebacks. 

You can get a good idea of how the game is going to go after the 1st quarter. 

[*PhilHos*]

(10-10-2024, 12:08 PM)jj22 Wrote: Burrow played great in those games as he has all season so I'm not going to harp on this. Those plays didn't lose the games correct, but they didn't win them either. And that is what defines clutch. It's unfortunate, but a great game in a loss just doesn't. That's just a great game in a loss and means you can't and shouldn't be blamed for the loss. 

No, that is what YOU define as clutch. If a QB leads his team to a go ahead FG/TD, but then his defense gives up the game winning score, absolutely NO intelligent person is going to say that QB was not clutch. 

(10-10-2024, 12:08 PM)jj22 Wrote: And Burrow did stare down Chase on that INT. But I'm not and never was trying to slam Burrow for his play these games. Just willing to highlight that when we need(ed) a TD (which is tough), FG, or even a 1st down, it didn't and hasn't happen, and hasn't for years now if anyone other than myself and those in my dm's, are willing to be honest. 

Joe Burrow's QB rating by QTR:
1st 94.1 (19 TDs)
2nd 106.5 (36 TDs)
3rd 100.7 (22 TDs)
4th 100.3 (33 TDs)

I highlighted his TDs because of how many he has in the 4th. Pretty amazing for a guy that's somehow not clutch.

When there's less than 2 minutes to go in a game, regardless of the score Burrow's stats are as follows: 37 comp 62 att 60% comp% 7 TDs 2 INTs 116.47 qb rating. Again, effin' fantastic for a guy that's somehow not clutch.
When trailing less than 4 minutes to go in a gqame, Burrow is 51 of 85 60% comp% 8 TDs 2 INTs 103.6 qb rating.

I mean, I could go on and on if you'd like, but I would love to see your evidence other than you just claiming something as fact and twisting the definition of the word to fit your agenda.

[KillerGoose]

(10-10-2024, 09:28 AM)jj22 Wrote: The other games NE, Balt, KC is where the clutch question comes into play. And why it's come back into discussion. It's the only thing anyone has discussed regarding Burrow this (and the last couple seasons since the SB loss) season. Not 4th quarter yards, not rather he's had good games or not this season. Everything else you are reading in this thread is spin at best, fake news at worst. 

Unable to get in FG range or a TD to win it with multiple opportunities late in games, or even a  first down to close out the game and get the win. That is what we are supposed to be discussing. It's changed now to how many yards a QB throws in the 4th quarter. Which is a weird stat given the records of the teams and much of those yards is due to garbage time stats, playing from behind, and the opposing teams D in prevent mode riding out the win.

I actually am not sure what the point of the stats were trying to show. 

I think of Burrow in the same category of the current top QB's Mahomes, Allen, Lamar etc. That's who I compare him to. Not the Geno Smiths, an aged Stafford, certainly nonclutch Prescott, and Brock Purdy's of the league.

If anything I now know who the true Burrow haters are with who they consider him being amongst. 

It depends on how you are trying to define "clutch". Out of curiosity, I queried data from 2021 --> 2024. This is a pretty narrow situation we are talking about so I want to make sure we have enough data. The situation I defined is as follows...

1. 4th quarter or overtime
2. Tied, or losing by at most 8 (one score game)
3. Five minutes left or less
   

The library that I am using has a field called "drive_ended_with_a_score". By using this, we can figure out what percentage of drives within our set situation have ended in a score. Since 2021, Burrow has had 20 opportunities in such situations. Of these 20, he has led the offense to a score in 11 of them (55%). This is good for 10th best scoring percentage out of 48 quarterbacks. Josh Allen ranks 7th with 61%. Lamar ranks 25th with 43% and Mahomes ranks 39th with 30%. It's funny that you mention Dak Prescott being non-clutch as he leads the entire league in this category, leading the offense to a score on 74% of his opportunities with Tom Brady close behind (71%). 

Next, you mention getting a first down to close out the game to get a win. I've narrowed down the situation to try to account for this. We are still looking at 4th quarter or later but have narrowed down the time remaining to two minutes or less. I have also changed the score situation to be tied or winning by at least one score. I'm classifying this as a "close out" situation. Finally, I am finding the amount of series that either get a first down or end in a touchdown. A series is different from a drive and represents a series of downs. 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down and then you get the first, the series of downs repeats. Since 2021, Burrow has had 15 series within this set of criteria and has been successful on 10 of them, or 67%. This is good for 5th in the league over that timeframe. Allen is 7th, Jackson is 10th and Mahomes is 17th. 

Now, here is where Burrow gets tripped up. When it comes to actually winning those games, Burrow ranks 18th with a win percentage of 60%. Mahomes is tied for second, Allen at 7th, and Lamar Jackson is 20th. He's lost four games - Baltimore last week, Dallas week 2 of 2022, Pittsburgh week 1 of 2022 and Green Bay week 5 of 2021. Despite being one of the most effective QBs in the league at getting first downs or scores in this scenario, he has one of the worst win percentages. Here's a quick summary of the losses...

1. Dallas - Tie game, offense goes three and out. A 63 yard punt returned for 14 yards and then a 33 yard drive to kick a game winning field goal. 
2. Pittsburgh - Offenses secures a first down but Burrow ends up getting sacked and fumbling (recovered by Cincinnati) to push Cincinnati out of FG range. Steelers drive 45 yards for the game winning field goal.
3. Green Bay - Burrow leads a 35 yard drive to get into field goal range. McPherson misses the field goal. They go into overtime. On the first play in OT, Burrow throws an interception. This is followed up by a Green Bay missed FG. Finally, Burrow leads a 40 yard drive to get into FG range again. Evan McPherson misses the field goal. Green Bay goes 36 yards to kick the game winner.
4. Baltimore - Burrow is sacked on the first play from scrimmage in his 4th quarter drive. They go three and out and punt. Burrow doesn't get much of an opportunity in overtime. Cincinnati recovers a fumble, ultimately run the ball three times and miss a FG. 
   

So, to summarize, Burrow is one of the most effective QBs in the league in late game situations but his win percentage has suffered due to poor luck on field goals. 

[*PhilHos*]

(10-10-2024, 12:24 PM)jj22 Wrote: Well I got news for you regarding those "idiots" who realized a loss was incoming... 

No one realized anything of the sort. The same people post the same game over shit WAY too early and sometimes we lose and sometime we win. Just because someone is pessimistic, doesn't mean they were right if the Bengals go on to lose the game. 

[*PhilHos*]

(10-10-2024, 12:27 PM)jj22 Wrote: Bengals games are really easy to figure out. If we are up early we tend to win. Most rough starts end in losses. That's the 1 thing about the ZT era. There's typically no blown leads (outside of last Sunday), nor is there typically any dramatic comebacks. 

You can get a good idea of how the game is going to go after the 1st quarter. 

You sure about that? Scores after the 1st QTR:
Patriots 0-0
Chiefs 3-3
Commanders 7-7
Panthers 0-7 
Ravens 7-0

Yep, certainly looked like in each game both teams were going to score 25 or more points

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-10-2024, 12:21 PM)jj22 Wrote: I appreciate the work. Hopefully you aren't doing this for me specifically but because you are as interested in if this is an issue or not as I am. And it should be discussed in the privacy of the Jungle where it's a safe space to have honest and open discourse about the players on the team. 

I just think when there is 1:25 left in the 4th down by a FG we should be able to trust the Offense gets it done like KC, INDY, Patriot fans with great QB's have in the past. And for some reason it just isn't happening and hasn't. The SB loss and the AFCC loss is painful to think of given the number of opportunities we had. And this is going to seem like I am picking on Burrow but his interceptions late in the AFCC loss goes kinda unspoken and forgiven around here.

Like i said, Aaron Rodgers came to mind because i've felt Joe has come up short in crucial situations. Difference between you and me, in what i've viewed with this thread, is i'm not willing to put as much blame on him, since he's kept the team in games and provided the end-game scenarios that allow them a chance to win. 

I watched a show with Shady McCoy, Acho, Chase Daniel and James Jones yesterday about 'does burrow deserve a pass'. My initial thought was yes, due to how well the pass offense is playing. I think that's a legitimate leg to stand on. Then i looked at it through just the 'clutch' eye. He had the ball in his hands against KC with a 3 pt lead and a chance to build on that and failed. He had the ball in his hands twice at the end of the Ravens game with a chance to ice it and failed. So the 'no pass' is also a legitimate leg to stand on. 

[jj22]

(10-10-2024, 12:49 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Yep, certainly looked like in each game both teams were going to score 25 or more points

Did I say that? Or is this just more fake news. 

[*PhilHos*]

(10-10-2024, 12:55 PM)jj22 Wrote: Did I say that? Or is this just more fake news. 

You said you could determine how the games were going to end up after the 1st QTR. Please enlighten me, then, on how at no time did any team score more than 7 points after the 1st QTR, you could determine wins/losses and final scores? I mean, what else does "determine how the game is going to go" mean?

[jj22]

I'm going by their win loss record when the Bengals end the 1st quarter ahead... It's remarkably high.

Also going by the lack of big comeback wins (outside of 2021) or blown leads (outside of Sunday) we've seen in the Burrow / ZT era.

 

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-10-2024, 12:34 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: It depends on how you are trying to define "clutch". Out of curiosity, I queried data from 2021 --> 2024. This is a pretty narrow situation we are talking about so I want to make sure we have enough data. The situation I defined is as follows...

1. 4th quarter or overtime
2. Tied, or losing by at most 8 (one score game)
3. Five minutes left or less
   

The library that I am using has a field called "drive_ended_with_a_score". By using this, we can figure out what percentage of drives within our set situation have ended in a score. Since 2021, Burrow has had 20 opportunities in such situations. Of these 20, he has led the offense to a score in 11 of them (55%). This is good for 10th best scoring percentage out of 48 quarterbacks. Josh Allen ranks 7th with 61%. Lamar ranks 25th with 43% and Mahomes ranks 39th with 30%. It's funny that you mention Dak Prescott being non-clutch as he leads the entire league in this category, leading the offense to a score on 74% of his opportunities with Tom Brady close behind (71%). 

Next, you mention getting a first down to close out the game to get a win. I've narrowed down the situation to try to account for this. We are still looking at 4th quarter or later but have narrowed down the time remaining to two minutes or less. I have also changed the score situation to be tied or winning by at least one score. I'm classifying this as a "close out" situation. Finally, I am finding the amount of series that either get a first down or end in a touchdown. A series is different from a drive and represents a series of downs. 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down and then you get the first, the series of downs repeats. Since 2021, Burrow has had 15 series within this set of criteria and has been successful on 10 of them, or 67%. This is good for 5th in the league over that timeframe. Allen is 7th, Jackson is 10th and Mahomes is 17th. 

Now, here is where Burrow gets tripped up. When it comes to actually winning those games, Burrow ranks 18th with a win percentage of 60%. Mahomes is tied for second, Allen at 7th, and Lamar Jackson is 20th. He's lost four games - Baltimore last week, Dallas week 2 of 2022, Pittsburgh week 1 of 2022 and Green Bay week 5 of 2021. Despite being one of the most effective QBs in the league at getting first downs or scores in this scenario, he has one of the worst win percentages. Here's a quick summary of the losses...

1. Dallas - Tie game, offense goes three and out. A 63 yard punt returned for 14 yards and then a 33 yard drive to kick a game winning field goal. 
2. Pittsburgh - Offenses secures a first down but Burrow ends up getting sacked and fumbling (recovered by Cincinnati) to push Cincinnati out of FG range. Steelers drive 45 yards for the game winning field goal.
3. Green Bay - Burrow leads a 35 yard drive to get into field goal range. McPherson misses the field goal. They go into overtime. On the first play in OT, Burrow throws an interception. This is followed up by a Green Bay missed FG. Finally, Burrow leads a 40 yard drive to get into FG range again. Evan McPherson misses the field goal. Green Bay goes 36 yards to kick the game winner.
4. Baltimore - Burrow is sacked on the first play from scrimmage in his 4th quarter drive. They go three and out and punt. Burrow doesn't get much of an opportunity in overtime. Cincinnati recovers a fumble, ultimately run the ball three times and miss a FG. 
   

So, to summarize, Burrow is one of the most effective QBs in the league in late game situations but his win percentage has suffered due to poor luck on field goals. 

Good stuff. It would be nice to correlate how that computes with this.



There are a lot of factors that go into play at the end of a game. I just get annoyed when anyone either tries to take one set of data and use that as the measuring stick, or they make up about 50 "excuses" why it didn't happen. There are reasons and there are excuses for everything, it's just a matter of fleshing it all out. 

EDIT: AH, i just paid closer attention to the end of your post. Good stuff, my man.

[KillerGoose]

(10-10-2024, 01:03 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Good stuff. It would be nice to correlate how that computes with this.



There are a lot of factors that go into play at the end of a game. I just get annoyed when anyone either tries to take one set of data and use that as the measuring stick, or they make up about 50 "excuses" why it didn't happen. There are reasons and there are excuses for everything, it's just a matter of fleshing it all out. 

PFR defines a 4QC as follows...

Quote:A 4th Quarter Comeback (4QC) must involve these:

• team must end up with a win or tie
• team must, at some point, have an offensive scoring drive while trailing in 4th quarter or OT
• the drive must conclude in the 4th quarter or OT. It can begin in the 3rd quarter so long as scrimmage plays that are part of the drive are run in the 4th quarter. This means you can't kick a FG on 1st play of 4th quarter to tie or take lead and have it count as 4QC.
• the scoring play to put the tying/winning points on the board must be the result of an offensive drive
  

There's definitely a bit of overlap, but some key differences around time. For example, if Cincinnati is down 21-24 at the end of the third quarter and Burrow throws a touchdown on the first play of the 4th quarter to go up and ultimately win 28-24, then that is counted as a 4QC. 

[jj22]

*A team must end up with a win or tie

This is what is challenging for some around here to accept.

It's the reason Mahomes gets the glory in the 2021 divisional game and Allen doesn't. 13 seconds... Allen had that game won and was "clutch" by all checked boxes but the most important one.

Yes a QB can play great and Yes even clutch in the 4th quarter. But in a loss, none of that matters. There is no glory in a loss. No QB is bragging about being clutch in a loss. It's unfair but it's reality.

I doubt Burrow would even claim out loud he was clutch in these losses. No matter how great he played. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-10-2024, 01:09 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: PFR defines a 4QC as follows...



There's definitely a bit of overlap, but some key differences around time. For example, if Cincinnati is down 21-24 at the end of the third quarter and Burrow throws a touchdown on the first play of the 4th quarter to go up and ultimately win 28-24, then that is counted as a 4QC. 

True. But that is the same for all QBs. That's why i want to go watch the game and chart exactly what happens inside of 5 mins for those losses.