Bengals Win Out + Broncos & Colts go 2-3, Dolphins go 3-2 & WE'RE IN!!!

[samhain]

(12-27-2024, 09:33 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: It’s still useful when comparing a player to his own peers. Chase Brown is currently at 52.2% for example. Zach Moss was MUCH worse in the same offense.

I kind of like Herbert anyway.  He's built like a bowling ball and is actually pretty good in the passing game.  I think he'd be a good compliment to Brown in the future.  Maybe he can be the new Perine with a bit more upside.

Don't look now, but it appears that Brown is becoming an actual 3-down back.  His blocking is improving a lot.  He runs hard and fast.  I honestly feel like we have something resembling an all-purpose back on the roster.  

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-27-2024, 09:33 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: It’s still useful when comparing a player to his own peers. Chase Brown is currently at 52.2% for example. Zach Moss was MUCH worse in the same offense.

Meanwhile Kareem Hunt is 3rd among RBs in the NFL at 55.5% despite his 3.6ypc... and Saquon Barkley is 10th with 52.9%, barely ahead of Chase Brown (13th) despite his absurd 5.9ypc and having a chance to break the single-season rushing record (granted in 17 games)


Jonathan Taylor is 40th out of 42, one spot behind Nick Chubb who rushed for 3.3ypc this year.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(Yesterday, 08:33 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Meanwhile Kareem Hunt is 3rd among RBs in the NFL at 55.5% despite his 3.6ypc... and Saquon Barkley is 10th with 52.9%, barely ahead of Chase Brown (13th) despite his absurd 5.9ypc and having a chance to break the single-season rushing record (granted in 17 games)


Jonathan Taylor is 40th out of 42, one spot behind Nick Chubb who rushed for 3.3ypc this year.

It’s obviously not the end all be all, just like any other advanced stat. But when 2 guys from the same team are so drastically far apart it’s interesting. Hell, if anything it’s even more of a knock on Moss that we were still running some 12 personnel with All before they both got hurt. And Moss still wasn’t an efficient runner.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(Yesterday, 10:43 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: It’s obviously not the end all be all, just like any other advanced stat. As for Hunt; I copied this explanation from a thread on another board about the Chiefs rushing success rate as a team. They were basically discussing how KC could be so high despite having such a non-explosive running game.

Success Rate starts with the idea that not all plays in football have the same objective. On first and 10, a two-yard run would be considered a bad result; on third and one, that same two-yard run would be celebrated for moving the chains. This means we can't just use stats like yards to measure how effective an offense is. Instead, Success Rate shows us how effective players and teams are at staying on schedule and creating productive plays. As a result, a successful play depends on the context. We define it as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down.

Yeah, I read how it's calculated... but if you run for 4 yards on 1st and 10 and then 0 yards on 2nd and 6 you have a 50% success rate which puts you above league average (49.4% this year, apparently) despite having 0 first downs and a 2.0ypc. 

Meanwhile if you have 3 yards on 1st and 10, and 7 yards on 2nd and 7 you have the exact same 50% success rate despite having gained a first down and having 5.0ypc.

I just can't buy into it and it's not because it's an advanced stat, but because I just don't think it's a particularly good one.

[Destro]

Sometimes stats are just numbers that do not pass the eye test. Can pick this and that and make something angle towards much argument. Then we are left with opinions with a few facts sprinkled in. I feel Chase Brown is better than Moss, and should have been the one starting. Barkley is light years ahead of both, regardless of any numbers, but some RBs have better run blocking than the Bengals do.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(Yesterday, 11:14 AM)Destro Wrote: Sometimes stats are just numbers that do not pass the eye test. Can pick this and that and make something angle towards much argument. Then we are left with opinions with a few facts sprinkled in. I feel Chase Brown is better than Moss, and should have been the one starting. Barkley is light years ahead of both, regardless of any numbers, but most RBs have better run blocking than the Bengals do.

FTFY.

[Destro]

(Yesterday, 12:19 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: FTFY.

I literally edited it to "some" because if I figured if I wrote "most" that someone would come in all bent out of shape, defending the line, team, coach, spouting off a bunch of things as excuses for our O-line of Pro Bowl club bouncers.

[*bfine32*]

(Yesterday, 12:46 PM)Destro Wrote: I literally edited it to "some" because if I figured if I wrote "most" that someone would come in all bent out of shape, defending the line, team, coach, spouting off a bunch of things as excuses for our O-line of Pro Bowl club bouncers.

I think one of the few things you have to worry about is a bunch of folks defending this IOL or Frank Pollack.

As to the Brown discussion: Sure there were a few brilliant football minds such as yourself who wanted to roll w/ Chase Brown as our #1 this season, but there were some who wanted someone a little more proven. 

The great thing going forward is the Brown has proven himself and we can turn our focus to other needs this offseason 

[coachmcneil71]

(Yesterday, 01:09 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I think one of the few things you have to worry about is a bunch of folks defending this IOL or Frank Pollack.

As to the Brown discussion: Sure there were a few brilliant football minds such as yourself who wanted to roll w/ Chase Brown as our #1 this season, but there were some who wanted someone a little more proven. 

The great thing going forward is the Brown has proven himself and we can turn our focus to other needs this offseason 

Not wrong, and wtbs, we still need another RB in the case of an injury to RB1. There's a possibility that RB is already on the roster, but if so, we didn't see it this season. Not something that needs to be addressed early in the draft though. 

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(Yesterday, 01:09 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I think one of the few things you have to worry about is a bunch of folks defending this IOL or Frank Pollack.

As to the Brown discussion: Sure there were a few brilliant football minds such as yourself who wanted to roll w/ Chase Brown as our #1 this season, but there were some who wanted someone a little more proven. 

The great thing going forward is the Brown has proven himself and we can turn our focus to other needs this offseason 

High volume RB's take a beating. I think RB depth is needed. But we do have more pressing needs. 

Heading into the offseason: 

Starters: 
Position, Incumbent, Solution
WR2: Higgins, Higgins
RG: Cappa, FA (get a good one)
DE2: Hubbard, Draft/FA (FA is thin)
DT1: Hill, Draft/FA
DT2: Rankins, Hill (BJ is Robin, not Batman)
LG: Volson/Ford, FA/draft
TE1: Sample, Draft/healthy All
CB3: Hilton, Hilton

Knowing us, we'll convince ourselves Hubbard & Cappa were playing hurt and will be fine next year. Rankins was sick and deserves another chance. Jenkins and Jackson are good to take over for BJ. And Sample & Cody Ford are starters.

OK, maybe not ALL of those, but I'd bet on at least three and probably four. 

Possible starter upgrades, not urgent
WR3: Yoshi: Improvement/Burton, mid draft
LB2: Pratt, draft (I love Campbell Rd2 if there)
FS: Stone,  Stone/draft (I love Watts Rd3)
CB1: we have a bunch of CB2s
SS: Battle, Battle improvement/draft


Probably a year early: 
C: Karras 
LT: OBJ

[KillerGoose]

There's multiple ways to calculate success rate; One is the aforementioned 30% on first down, half on second down and all on third down and the other is by leveraging expected points added. If you add positive expected points, then it is considered a successful play. Success rate tells a very specific story. It favors players who are consistent and, perhaps more importantly, offenses that are consistent. In the eyes of success rate, a 70 yard TD run and a nine yard run on first down are the exact same, which is a successful play. Below is a chart plotting rushing consistency for Kareem Hunt, Saquon Barkley, and Chase Brown.



This chart is showing the likelihood that a player gets at least X yards which are displayed on the horizontal axis. Chase Brown is about as consistent as Barkley until you hit the four yard mark. That is where Saquon starts pulling away until they hit the 10+ range, where Brown closes the gap again. For Kareem Hunt, he immediately falls off at a neutral gain. He is a notable tier below both guys. The Chiefs have ran a ton of plays this year, leading the league in attempts and are 7th in rushing attempts. Kareem is likely getting favorable down and distances to run the ball which are boosting his success rate stats. 

[*bfine32*]

(Yesterday, 01:23 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: Not wrong, and wtbs, we still need another RB in the case of an injury to RB1. There's a possibility that RB is already on the roster, but if so, we didn't see it this season. Not something that needs to be addressed early in the draft though. 

I said last off season I'd like us to bring in a big-back. My #1 pick in FA was Derek Henry and in the draft I liked Braelon Allen and Auric Estime. The Ravens jumped on Henry and Allen/Estime went in the 4th/5th Rds. This year I'm wishing for Najee Harris in FA or Phil Mafah/ Rahiem Sanders (5th Rd)

[BengalsLUFC]

Tua ruled out tomorrow and Richardson is banged up.

Not sure who sold their soul for things to fall our way but it appears to be working.

[BengalsLUFC]

**** me Richardson has now been ruled out

[Frank Booth]

(Yesterday, 03:42 PM)BengalsLUFC Wrote: **** me Richardson has now been ruled out

The colts are better without Richardson

[BengalsLUFC]

(Yesterday, 03:49 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: The colts are better without Richardson

Oh look mr happy has come to piss on the parade.

Mate it’s Christmas have a bit of hope eh.

[Bengal Billy]

(Yesterday, 03:39 PM)BengalsLUFC Wrote: Tua ruled out tomorrow and Richardson is banged up.

Not sure who sold their soul for things to fall our way but it appears to be working.

Haha Wow. We all saw how pathetically terrible the Dolphins were without Tua this year. Hopefully down on the Browns DTR level now.

"Mr Happy" lol..

NYG are awful. Not sure it matters if Richardson or Flacco plays against them they suck. But,, there's always hope and last couple games Flacco played he sucked.

Some good Holiday news for Bengals fans though for sure.

[Frank Booth]

(Yesterday, 03:51 PM)BengalsLUFC Wrote: Oh look mr happy has come to piss on the parade.

Mate it’s Christmas have a bit of hope eh.

I’m just saying Richardson is historically incompetent

[cinci4life]

(Yesterday, 03:39 PM)BengalsLUFC Wrote: Tua ruled out tomorrow and Richardson is banged up.

Not sure who sold their soul for things to fall our way but it appears to be working.

Well this is the time of year for miracles. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(Yesterday, 04:05 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I’m just saying Richardson is historically incompetent

And Joe Flacco has thrown 15 INT in his last 10 starts. (Just 2 less than Jameis pace.)