MLB Draft 2025

[cinci4life]

(Yesterday, 07:43 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Who you thinking for the Reds?

JoJo Parker? Ike Irish? Or just another pitcher because they want to try to win every game 2-1 and 3-2?

Hernandez to the Pirates, and I know there was talk about him dropping to the Reds.

I wouldn't mind Ike Irish.

[Goalpost]

At pick 8, Toronto takes Jo Jo Parker SS. Reds on the clock.

[cinci4life]

Steele Hall SS

[Goalpost]

And the Reds pick at 9 is Steele Hall SS.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

.....a 180lb SS.....

Quote:Hall's quick right-handed swing looks better in batting practice -- where he focuses on driving the ball from gap to gap -- than it does in games, where it gets longer as he looks to lift and pull pitches for power. The Tennessee recruit is a bit of a free swinger who struggles to recognize secondary pitches. He still has room to add more strength and should become at least an average hitter with 15-homer pop, and perhaps more, if he can moderate his approach.

[Goalpost]

The Reds have a ton of infielders playing succesfully in the minors with Steele now added to it.

Sal Stewart..age 21..3rd best Reds prospect now playing in AA...3B/2B...hitting .306 with .850 OPS...now promoted to AAA
Cam Collier..age 20...4th best Reds prospect now playing in AA..3B/1B..hitting .314 with .863 OPS
Edwin Arroyo.. age 21..7th best Reds prospect now playing in AA...SS...hitting ,272 with .687 OPS
Sammy Stafura..age 20..8th best Reds prospect now playing in A...SS...hitting .260 with .792 OPS
Tyson Lewis.. age 19..9th best Reds prospect now playing Rookie ball..SS..hitting .338 with .919 OPS

At the major league level, they are young with.... Marte(23), McLain(25) and Elly(23).  Steer is only 27 as well.

[Goalpost]

Irish so far is dropping.

edit...Baltimore takes him 19th.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(Yesterday, 08:27 PM)Goalpost Wrote: Cam Collier..age 20...4th best Reds prospect now playing in AA..3B/1B..hitting .314 with .863 OPS
Edwin Arroyo.. age 21..7th best Reds prospect now playing in AA...SS...hitting ,272 with .687 OPS
Sammy Stafura..age 20..8th best Reds prospect now playing in A...SS...hitting .260 with .792 OPS

On pace for 6.5 HR per 600 PA this year.
On pace for 2 HR per 600 PA this year.
On pace for 6.7 HR per 600 PA this year.

Now they draft a 180lb SS with subpar power.

Just don't understand what the Reds think they're going to do with a ton of guys with zero power.

[Goalpost]

https://blogredmachine.com/reds-front-office-reinforces-flawed-mlb-draft-strategy-2025-first-round-pick

The dilemma of the big board this year and some second guessing.

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With the 51st pick, the Reds select Aaron Watson HS RHP

[Goalpost]

With the 83rd pick the Reds select Mason Morris RHP

[CJD]

It may just be because Cincinnati is primarily a football town nowadays (they should be a baseball town, but the Castellinis have bled us dry for years), but I see a lot of fans treating the MLB draft like the NFL draft.

The 2025 Cincinnati Reds could use an outfielder. That doesn't mean you should draft an OF in the 2025 MLB draft. If you need an outfielder, trade for one or sign one in the following off season. The draft is for accumulating talent.

Even if we drafted Ike Irish with the idea that he could play outfield for the 2026 Reds, he'd still just be a rookie. Rookies very rarely come up and blow the world up. And, in a lot of cases, even when they look great in the minors, the jump to the majors is still too much in the first year or two.

Look at Jac Caglianone, for example. In his 1 year in the minor leagues, he destroyed baseballs to the tune of a .322/.389/.593/.982 line. He had a 10% walk rate in the minors. So the Royals called him up. He is currently batting .140/.196/.264/.459 in 138 plate appearances across 35 games with a 4% walk rate.

Look at Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Over his minor league career, he has a line of .322/.387/.605/.992. But in 3 tries in the majors (granted, only 501 plate appearances), he is hitting .233/.275/.404/.679. And that's bolstered by his decent 2023 season. So far in 2024, his line is .208/.234/.377/.610. He was recently sent back down to the minors because he was not good enough to get playing time on the major league roster.

Look at Rece Hinds. He is been bouncing between AAA and MLB all season. Every time he is in AAA, he mashes. His AAA line this season is .300/.375/.555/.931. But then we call him up and his batting line shrinks to .119/.140/.286/.425.

I could go on, but the jump from college to the majors is MASSIVE and, even if you have a generational talent, they still will likely need adjusting to the majors for a season or two. You don't fill needs in the MLB draft because the odds of you actually filling that need in a time in which it serves the purpose are very small. If you need an outfielder, go pay a damn outfielder.

As for Steele, he and Eli Willits are 17 year olds being drafted in this year's draft because they were able to reclassify to be drafted sooner. Steele Hall was already talented enough to be a top 10-12 prospect in all of college and high school baseball at 17 years old. If he had gone back to school and played in his senior year, there is a decent chance he would go even higher in the 2026 MLB draft. This pick was the Reds betting on the development of an immense physical talent.

I won't lie. I was pulling for Jamie Arnold at our pick, but I understand the appeal of the Hall selection. It's the equivalent in the NFL of drafting a redshirt sophomore instead of a Senior because you believe that extra year of development will make them a superior talent once they're a "senior" relative to the senior you could have drafted. In the world of sports, the younger the prospect, the higher the upside, especially if they're already performing well at their age. I am not worried about having a bunch of highly touted SS in our farm system. SS is the most physically demanding position in baseball. If you can succeed at SS, odds are you can play any position. So, if the need arises, they can always convert one or two of these SSs into outfielders or third basemen or whatever position they need by the time these guys are ready. We won't see any of them in the majors for at least 2 years (and likely won't see Steele for 3 to 4), I imagine.

[CJD]

With the 114th overall pick in the 4th round, the Cincinnati Reds select OF Mason Neville out of Oregon University.

BIG power left handed college bat with good speed and arm strength. Some scouts think he can stick at CF.

He does have some swing and miss concerns, but he cut his strikeout rate by 10% from his sophomore to his junior season (from 33.5% to 23.5%). Tied for the Division I lead in home runs with 26 and had a line of .290/.429/.724/1.152 last season.

He also walks a fair amount. He has a 16.67% walk rate through 3 seasons in college, with an 18.9% walk rate this past season.

He was a consensus top 50 prospect in the entire draft. I was listening to some Reds draft coverage yesterday and he was mentioned as one of the best available players going into day 2. The analysts said that him not being taken in the first 3 rounds may be an indication that he's considering returning to college for his senior season and thus would be an overslot draftee.

The Reds probably went underslot for their 3rd and possibly 2nd round choices so that they could afford to go overslot to secure Neville. We'll see how the numbers work out.

Fun fact: In 2022, when Neville was coming out of high school, the Reds threw an 18th round selection at him in case he chose to bypass college. He obviously didn't sign, so this is the Reds' second crack at drafting and signing him. I doubt they'd do it a second time unless they're confident he'll sign this time.

[Goalpost]

Reds take high schooler, Eli Pitts, OF, out of Atlanta in round 5. MLB.com does not list a rank of him, but i found some info elsewhere.

https://threequarterslot.com/2025/05/27/2025-mlb-draft-eli-pitts-of-north-atlanta/

[Goalpost]

https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/2025/all/team/reds

1st ten picks end up being 5 pitchers, 3 OF's, 1 SS, 1 1B.