Toxic differential rankings

[StLucieBengal]

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/toxic-differential/2015/

This was always a big thing for Brian Billick in how he broke down a successful season. It's pretty common but he always championed this .... The link has a breakdown of what is was and breaks the team's down for 2015

[Johnny Cupcakes]

Awesome! Free apps!

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Bengals would have been significantly better on that list if Jeremy Hill didn't turd it up all year. 1 rush of 20+ yards from him, plus another 2 from Gio set them at 3 from their two main RBs. (As many as Wilson and Newton, the two teams ahead of the Bengals each had on their own.)

Should be at the top of that list if Dalton comes back and is still 2015 Dalton, and Hill comes back and decides he wants to run hard/fast for a change. Nice link, StLu.

[StLucieBengal]

Johnny Cupcak Wrote:Awesome! Free apps!

Yeah sorry about that. There is another place for it but I can't remember .

[*Go Cards*]

Hill and the O Line held us back

[StLucieBengal]

I'm anxious to see zampese's twist on the offense.

[Yojimbo]

(01-23-2016, 10:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bengals would have been significantly better on that list if Jeremy Hill didn't turd it up all year. 1 rush of 20+ yards from him, plus another 2 from Gio set them at 3 from their two main RBs. (As many as Wilson and Newton, the two teams ahead of the Bengals each had on their own.)

Should be at the top of that list if Dalton comes back and is still 2015 Dalton, and Hill comes back and decides he wants to run hard/fast for a change. Nice link, StLu.

Kind of shows it was more of a blocking problem than a RB problem when there's only 3 20+ runs between two backs we know can do it better than that.

Hopefully replacing Andre will help that and possibly Bodine if we bring in competition for him.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-24-2016, 03:09 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: Kind of shows it was more of a blocking problem than a RB problem when there's only 3 20+ runs between two backs we know can do it better than that.

Hopefully replacing Andre will help that and possibly Bodine if we bring in competition for him.

The 20+ runs don't normally come from the OL (unless it's a run blitz that you beat and then once you get past the line it's wide open field). They come from the TE and WR. OL gives you the holes to make 5-10 yard runs and, generally speaking, once you get to that next level it's about WR and TE blocking to bust those real big runs.

Not that it matters a ton because it's not an exact science, but I believe PFF ranked the Bengals as the 8th best OL.

The Patriots had one of the most ramshackle lines ever this year. A 2nd rounder, two 4th rounders, a 5th rounder, and an undrafted, who from LT to RT have started 13, 10, 6, 13, and 8 games this year. LeGarrette Blount still had 4 rushes for 20+ yards on 165 carries.

So maybe it's offensive scheme, maybe it's Hill, maybe it's the WRs and TEs not blocking well, who knows. But I am fairly positive it's not OL talent. (Now lets wait for someone to come here and tell us how much of an OL genius Paul Alexander is.)

[fredtoast]

(01-24-2016, 12:47 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The 20+ runs don't normally come from the OL (unless it's a run blitz that you beat and then once you get past the line it's wide open field). They come from the TE and WR. OL gives you the holes to make 5-10 yard runs and, generally speaking, once you get to that next level it's about WR and TE blocking to bust those real big runs.

Not that it matters a ton because it's not an exact science, but I believe PFF ranked the Bengals as the 8th best OL.

FootballOutsiders actually breaks down the running game between yards credited to the O-line and second level yards credited to the RB.  Don't know if their '15 numbers are out yet.

If the RBs are getting stuffed at the line all the itme then the O-line usually deserves the blame.  Longer runs are usually due to the back making a defender miss at the second level, so the RB should get credit for those yards.

[spazz70]

Easy fix for Hill

QUIT RUNNING HIM OUT OF THE SHOTGUN!!!

The kid needs a head of steam...He makes better decisions and hits the hole hard and fast when lined up deep and Dalton under center

[fredtoast]

(01-26-2016, 12:07 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Easy fix for Hill

QUIT RUNNING HIM OUT OF THE SHOTGUN!!!

The kid needs a head of steam...He makes better decisions and hits the hole hard and fast when lined up deep and Dalton under center

This is a complete myth.  Hill was very effective running out of the shotgun in '14.

[spazz70]

(01-26-2016, 12:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is a complete myth.  Hill was very effective running out of the shotgun in '14.

Go look at a highlight reel...9 out of 10 long runs from him are not in the shotgun...He is lined up 6-8 yards deep...The Denver run was from the shotgun..He had a guy wrapped around his ankle in the backfield but luckily broke loose for the big run...It is not a myth...

[fredtoast]

(01-26-2016, 12:07 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Easy fix for Hill

QUIT RUNNING HIM OUT OF THE SHOTGUN!!!

The kid needs a head of steam...He makes better decisions and hits the hole hard and fast when lined up deep and Dalton under center

(01-26-2016, 01:27 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Go look at a highlight reel...9 out of 10 long runs from him are not in the shotgun...He is lined up 6-8 yards deep...The Denver run was from the shotgun..He had a guy wrapped around his ankle in the backfield but luckily broke loose for the big run...It is not a myth...

Hill has been more productive running out of the shotgun than out of other formations for his entire career.

'15 shotgun....... 62 car ... 238 yds ... 3.8 avg
'15 other.......... 161 car ... 556 yds ... 3.5 avg

'14 shotgun....... 54 car ... 355 yds ... 6.6 avg
'14 other..........168 car ... 769 yds ... 4.6 avg

[reuben.ahmed]

Carolina is going to destroy Denver.

[spazz70]

(01-26-2016, 03:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hill has been more productive running out of the shotgun than out of other formations for his entire career.

'15 shotgun....... 62 car ... 238 yds ... 3.8 avg
'15 other.......... 161 car ... 556 yds ... 3.5 avg

'14 shotgun....... 54 car ... 355 yds ... 6.6 avg
'14 other..........168 car ... 769 yds ... 4.6 avg

Awesome...Now break down the long runs...Which is what the discussion was about and show me those stats...i can show you a highlight reel from 2014 where a majority of his long runs and 7 of his 9 TDs were from Dalton under center...he may have had some 5,6,8 or 10 yard runs that show more "production" but that is not what the discussion was about....

[fredtoast]

(01-26-2016, 03:52 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Awesome...Now break down the long runs...Which is what the discussion was about and show me those stats...i can show you a highlight reel from 2014 where a majority of his long runs and 7 of his 9 TDs were from Dalton under center...he may have had some 5,6,8 or 10 yard runs that show more "production" but that is not what the discussion was about....

Post your link and I will see what I can find to support my position.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-26-2016, 03:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hill has been more productive running out of the shotgun than out of other formations for his entire career.

'15 shotgun....... 62 car ... 238 yds ... 3.8 avg
'15 other.......... 161 car ... 556 yds ... 3.5 avg

'14 shotgun....... 54 car ... 355 yds ... 6.6 avg
'14 other..........168 car ... 769 yds ... 4.6 avg

So if he had "9 out of 10 of his long runs" out of the shotgun in 2014 and got 4.6 YPC, does that mean outside of those few occasional long runs he was total trash?

That doesn't sound like a very convincing argument to change anything away from the MVP-type season Andy Dalton was having while Hill was only gaining 1.46 yards after contact.

Remember that time they completely changed the offense for Andrew Luck in 2014 because they didn't like him having a 96.5 QB Rating and wanted to get Trent Richardson going instead? Yeah, me either. QBs are the most valuable thing in this league, sadly. I don't buy for one second that the shotgun is the reason why Hill sucked in 2015 (before I even saw Fred's stats). But lets just say it is for conversation's sake.. if Hill can't learn to run out of any formation he's needed to in order to make the QB/offense/team good, then it's time to find a replacement who can. RBs are very replaceable.

No matter how you cut it, you're wrong, Spazz.

[spazz70]

(01-26-2016, 05:08 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: So if he had "9 out of 10 of his long runs" out of the shotgun in 2014 and got 4.6 YPC, does that mean outside of those few occasional long runs he was total trash?

That doesn't sound like a very convincing argument to change anything away from the MVP-type season Andy Dalton was having while Hill was only gaining 1.46 yards after contact.

Remember that time they completely changed the offense for Andrew Luck in 2014 because they didn't like him having a 96.5 QB Rating and wanted to get Trent Richardson going instead? Yeah, me either. QBs are the most valuable thing in this league, sadly. I don't buy for one second that the shotgun is the reason why Hill sucked in 2015 (before I even saw Fred's stats). But lets just say it is for conversation's sake.. if Hill can't learn to run out of any formation he's needed to in order to make the QB/offense/team good, then it's time to find a replacement who can. RBs are very replaceable.

No matter how you cut it, you're wrong, Spazz.

And I do not disagree with you or Fred for that matter...My point was not about Hill being the focal point of the offense...My point was as follows....

Discussion was talking about runs of 20+ yards
I said do not run Hill in shotgun
Fred says Hill was great in shotgun...showing his stats from all of his carries ( I did not mention all of his carries, the discussion was about runs of 20+ yards)
I posted that most of his long runs (20+ yards) were from Dalton under center and also his TD runs were 
You and Fred both respond with stuff not even to do with what the discussion is about and tell me that I am wrong 

You are correct...you do not change the game plan to revolve around Hill....BUT...you can change it enough to allow Hill to play to his strengths when in the game..

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-26-2016, 06:18 PM)spazz70 Wrote: And I do not disagree with you or Fred for that matter...My point was not about Hill being the focal point of the offense...My point was as follows....

Discussion was talking about runs of 20+ yards
I said do not run Hill in shotgun
Fred says Hill was great in shotgun...showing his stats from all of his carries ( I did not mention all of his carries, the discussion was about runs of 20+ yards)
I posted that most of his long runs (20+ yards) were from Dalton under center and also his TD runs were 
You and Fred both respond with stuff not even to do with what the discussion is about and tell me that I am wrong 

You are correct...you do not change the game plan to revolve around Hill....BUT...you can change it enough to allow Hill to play to his strengths when in the game..

Which I understand, but the problem is I still think you're wrong about the 20+ yard carries, too. For instance, his 85 yard run (the longest of his career) came out of the shotgun in 2014. You keep repeating that most came with Dalton under center, but you've not actually come out with any numbers to support it is I guess the problem here, when all the stats say Hill is actually better in shotgun.

Maybe it seemed to you that he had more long runs of 20+ when Dalton was under center because he was run more that way, not because he is actually better there. 2 runs of 20+ on 50 carries is the exact same ratio as 6 runs of 20+ on 150 carries. You might look and see "6 vs 2!" but it really is "1 per 25 vs 1 per 25".

[spazz70]

(01-26-2016, 06:43 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Which I understand, but the problem is I still think you're wrong about the 20+ yard carries, too. For instance, his 85 yard run (the longest of his career) came out of the shotgun in 2014. You keep repeating that most came with Dalton under center, but you've not actually come out with any numbers to support it is I guess the problem here, when all the stats say Hill is actually better in shotgun.

Maybe it seemed to you that he had more long runs of 20+ when Dalton was under center because he was run more that way, not because he is actually better there. 2 runs of 20+ on 50 carries is the exact same ratio as 6 runs of 20+ on 150 carries. You might look and see "6 vs 2!" but it really is "1 per 25 vs 1 per 25".

Like I said in my original post (talking about 20+ yard run plays)...Here is his career runs of 20+ yards...I think it is quite obvious that he is more likely to have a big gain when not in shotgun and the QB under center....

Runs over 20 yards..2014

Jaguars
60 yds…not in Shotgun
Saints
21 yds…not in shotgun
62 yds…not in shotgun
Browns
21 yds…not in shotgun
Denver
85 yds..shotgun
Steelers
22 yds…not in shotgun
2015..Ravens…only run over 20 yds
38 yds…not in shotgun
 
And if you go scroll through the play by play you will pick up obvious tendencies of when we are in shotgun and when Hill is in versus Bernard...Again, I am not saying that Hill is not effective in shotgun just his big plays come when not...