How much does our compensatory pick strategy play into pending free agents in 2016?

[samhain]

Simple question. The Bengals have a ton of FAs and won't sign all of them. Many of them will get big money and start for whoever pays them. This will lead to 2017 comp picks, which the team loves. Not all that horrible of a strategy really, but it comes at a cost.

Will the team hesitate to sign outside FAs to replace departing contributors due to the comp pick repercussions? Will planning for the distant future get in the way of building the 2016 roster?

[ItsOdellThurman]

This is the NFL. A year by year league. Smart teams don't plan more than 1-2 years into the future. With that said, the Bengals have a history of trying to keep everyone who is eligible for free agency. It's not like they have let tons of impact players over the years go for draft picks. Why would it start now?

Obviously, this year some big decisions have to be made. But the Bengals are a top 5-10 team in the NFL, there's no way they just let everyone walk to play for 2017 and beyond.

[jj22]

Theoretically Marvin shouldn't be thinking about 2017 with it being his "last season". Should be all in. But it probably plays a role.

[fredtoast]

If a team really felt they needed a player I doubt the prospect of a future draft pick would convince them to let him walk.

[leonardfan40]

I think you guys are reading into the first paragraph too much and not enough into the 2nd one. I don't think the op is suggesting not signing OUR players for the comp picks, but suggesting that the players we lose we may be hesitant to replace via FA because we value the future picks more than over paying an outside FA.

This is probably what will happen and the bengals have a long history of doing this, it's part of the building through the draft philosophy. We are clearly going to lose a few of our guys and I do not expect the bengals to sign many if any outsiders to replace them. We will continue to find replacements in the draft like always.

I don't expect an "all in" type of push by the front office and Marvin. We are in good shape to compete for a championship next season as long as we keep a few of our key FA's and draft well

[Bengal Dude]

I think they kind of consider it. Hobson wrote that the team was looking for the 3rd round comp pick from Michael Johnson when he signed with Tampa. If/when Marvin Jones signs a big deal, I could see them keeping with their method of signing bottom of the barrel scrapings and cut players. Then they can get a 3rd or 4th in 2017.

[bengals67]

(02-09-2016, 05:39 PM)Bengal Dude Wrote: I think they kind of consider it. Hobson wrote that the team was looking for the 3rd round comp pick from Michael Johnson when he signed with Tampa. If/when Marvin Jones signs a big deal, I could see them keeping with their method of signing bottom of the barrel scrapings and cut players. Then they can get a 3rd or 4th in 2017.

More important to spend money on Eifert and our guard whose contract is up next year than Jones.

Pittsburg replaced Mike Wallace and got better and we can replace Jones. Green is our main guy and you cannot stack too much money in WR.

I trust Bengals will sign Jones to a reasonable contract for a good number 2 but not more.

[Daddy-O]

(02-09-2016, 04:24 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: I think you guys are reading into the first paragraph too much and not enough into the 2nd one. I don't think the op is suggesting not signing OUR players for the comp picks, but suggesting that the players we lose we may be hesitant to replace via FA because we value the future picks more than over paying an outside FA.

This is probably what will happen and the bengals have a long history of doing this, it's part of the building through the draft philosophy. We are clearly going to lose a few of our guys and I do not expect the bengals to sign many if any outsiders to replace them. We will continue to find replacements in the draft like always.

I don't expect an "all in" type of push by the front office and Marvin. We are in good shape to compete for a championship next season as long as we keep a few of our key FA's and draft well

And this "building through the draft" philosophy is a good one, and the Bengals generally do well.  You have to nail the drafts if you want to play it like this, not necessarily in the early rounds but you have to make hay in the mid to late rounds also.  The Bengals have done well here but it's a gamble to think you'll continue to find the Geno's, Iloka's, MLJ's and Burfict's late.  A gamble that seems to pan out every year when we see another late rounder step into a starting role, only to become a valued free agent a few years later.

[NATI BENGALS]

Supposedly the comp picks will be tradable. I don't think this year but probably next. So if we are set to get a load of comp picks in 2017 I wonder if this makes us a little more open to making trades this year.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

All the 2017 comp picks in the world won't help you win in 2016 if it means neglecting adding talent. The draft is very good, but you also need to add some outside help. As evidenced by the last three straight SB winners.

[BengalChris]

I doubt it plays a role in the front end of the Bengals trying to sign their own guys back at the price they want.

However, it will play a role when it comes to how much the team will be willing to offer another team's free agent.

Would the team give up a 3rd round compensation pick to sign someone else's free agent at a similar price to what a Bengal signed elsewhere for? Probably not.

Instead, they'll look at the bargain bin and guys cut from other teams, as usual. That's the way they've done it at times in the past. Compensation picks are largely based on contract size and a player cut from another team doesn't subtract any compensation picks.

Nelson, Marvin Jones and Adam Jones, and even Andre Smith could get big enough contracts to warrant compensation picks for the Bengals next year.

I'm assuming the team tags Iloka.

[*pally*]

I doubt it plays that big of a roll. Veteran players have to choose to get an overvalued paycheck but risk an early release from other teams vs a more realistic dollar amount but generally a guarantee that the Bengals will honor the full contract.

As for signing other team's free agents, the team always looks at players who can 1) meet a need 2) expect a properly valued paycheck
Far too often the players in the free agent wants paychecks at the level they think they are worth not what they actually are.

We've been talking about Marvin Jones with his no hometeam discount. The player that I think will be interesting to watch is Andre Smith. We're virtually 100% sure he is walking but I have a feeling he will end up signing somewhere for far less than he will be asking for on Day 1 od free agency

[Joelist]

I expect we already have figured out who our priority resign targets are, and our track record in keeping said players is really good.

[*SHRacerX*]

They (compensatory picks) play a huge role. I am not saying at all that the Bengals won't try to sign guys like Marvin Jones and Iloka and just aim for their compensatory picks, but it greatly softens the blow of losing players like Andre Smith and Reggie Nelson.

They have already drafted and even had a year or two of time to groom their replacements and with the availability of compensatory picks being trade-able, it makes them that much more important.

The Bengals haven't let the key talent they have drafted and developed walk unless they are greatly disappointed with them (Gresham). They tried to sign MJ, but they couldn't match the contract offered by Tampa...and thank God they didn't try to. They will likely try to sign Iloka and Marvin Jones, but if they look at other offers and get a ridiculous deal, they will be gone as well. Both could yield as high as a third round compensatory selection. As well as the Bengals have drafted over the past 5-6 years, these compensatory picks get them talented players that allow them to stay under the cap and develop for the future.

[OrlandoBengal]

(02-09-2016, 06:59 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: All the 2017 comp picks in the world won't help you win in 2016 if it means neglecting adding talent. The draft is very good, but you also need to add some outside help. As evidenced by the last three straight SB winners.

Completely agree.

[*Go Cards*]

Do not believe it factors in one bit when it comes to deciding who to retain on roster or not.

There are many variables that weigh in to this decision, yet do not believe this is one at all.

But they do help lessen the sting once somebody does walk.

[NATI BENGALS]

Hobson's newest Q and A basically said what some have said in this thread . When it comes to outside free agents we will look at guys who were cut if at all.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(02-09-2016, 12:22 PM)samhain Wrote: Simple question.  The Bengals have a ton of FAs and won't sign all of them.  Many of them will get big money and start for whoever pays them.  This will lead to 2017 comp picks, which the team loves.  Not all that horrible of a strategy really, but it comes at a cost.

Will the team hesitate to sign outside FAs to replace departing contributors due to the comp pick repercussions?  Will planning for the distant future get in the way of building the 2016 roster?

It depends. If it's a position of dire need, then you don't worry about the comp picks.

If you already know you are going to lose some quality players and get some picks back from them, then try to find players that were cut before their contracts expired, so they don't count against your possible comp picks, which is the strategy the Bengals try to use.

For example, Michael Johnson, Cut from TB, we signed him asap, and he didn't hurt our comp picks that we were awarded last year.

[grampahol]

My dad used to say about certain people, I'd like to buy him for what he's worth and sell him for what he thinks he's worth.. I think the team more or less has a similar philosophy hence Carson Palmer. If they're going to sell MJ it's going to be for what he thinks he's worth, but they're not buying him for that amount..

[Hammerstripes]

(02-10-2016, 08:58 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: They (compensatory picks) play a huge role.   I am not saying at all that the Bengals won't try to sign guys like Marvin Jones and Iloka and just aim for their compensatory picks, but it greatly softens the blow of losing players like Andre Smith and Reggie Nelson.

They have already drafted and even had a year or two of time to groom their replacements and with the availability of compensatory picks being trade-able, it makes them that much more important.  

The Bengals haven't let the key talent they have drafted and developed walk unless they are greatly disappointed with them (Gresham).    They tried to sign MJ, but they couldn't match the contract offered by Tampa...and thank God they didn't try to.  They will likely try to sign Iloka and Marvin Jones, but if they look at other offers and get a ridiculous deal, they will be gone as well.  Both could yield as high as a third round compensatory selection.  As well as the Bengals have drafted over the past 5-6 years, these compensatory picks get them talented players that allow them to stay under the cap and develop for the future.

I don't think getting 4th round picks (3rd round comps are essentially 4th round picks since they come after the 3rd round) softens the blow of losing any player.

The blow of losing Andre - if you want to consider him a big loss, was softened by the drafting of 2 tackles in rounds 1 and 2 last year.

It remains to be seen what happens with the rest of the free agents.  The only one we really haven't prepared for losing is Marvin Jones.  We have drafted CB after CB and have added a couple safeties over the years.  Losing Marvin would be a setback.