Free Agency Prediction Game

[leonardfan40]

Simple game, predict 3 things (2016 team, years on new contract, and average annual value) for any of the Bengals free agents listed below. Your goal is to be as accurate as possible, you get one point for each correct answer for each player. One point for picking the correct team, one point for getting within +/- $.5 mil of average annual value of the contract, and one point for getting the length of the contract correct (you get two choices for total years of the contract). If you think a player will retire simply state that and you get 3 points if he does. I will get the game started with my next post, try to follow the same format to keep it simple, also try to keep all of your guesses in one post to keep the thread clean. Try to have all guesses in by March 5th or so before the negotiations start to trickle in. As the contracts come in I will periodically post them and the points we all have. Winner gets bragging rights and rep. Hope you guys join in!

Leon Hall        CB 31
Andre Smith RT 29
Reggie Nelson FS 32
Vincent Rey   ILB 28
Adam Jones CB 32
Emmanuel Lamur OLB 26
Wallace Gilberry DE 31
Mohamed Sanu WR 26
George Iloka SS 25
Eric Winston RT 32
Brandon Thompson DT 26
Marvin Jones WR 25
Brandon Tate WR 28
Pat Sims        DT 30

[leonardfan40]

Leon Hall     MIAMI, 1 year, $2.5 AAV
Andre Smith  MIN, 3 years, $6.5 AAV
Reggie Nelson CIN, 3 years, $5 AAV
Vincent Rey    CIN, 2 years, $3 AAV
Adam Jones    CIN, 3 years, $5 AAV
Emmanuel Lamur  NYG, 1 year, $2 AAV
Wallace Gilberry  CIN, 2 years, $2 AAV
Mohamed Sanu  CLE, 4 years, $4 AAV
George Iloka  DET, 4 years, $7 AAV
Eric Winston  CIN, 1 year, $1 AAV
Brandon Thompson  MIN, 1 years, $1 AAV
Marvin Jones  NYG, 5 years, $6.5 AAV
Brandon Tate  ATL, 1 year, $1 AAV
Pat Sims        CIN, 1 year, $1 AAV

I'll probably make some changes to this in the future, just wanted to get something down, feel free to do the same any time for the next few weeks. Edits made after information begins to be leaked/announced won't count.

[samhain]

Leon Hall: Ravens, 1 year 2m AAV.
Andre Smith: Redskins, 3 years, 6m AAV.
Adam Jones: Bengals, 4 years, 5.5m AAV.
Reggie Nelson: Bengals, 3 years, 6.5m AAV.
George Iloka: Vikings, 5 years, 7m AAV.
Wallace Gilberry: Bengals, 1 year, 2m AAV.
Brandon Thomspon: Falcons, 2 years, 1.5m AAV.
Pat Sims: Retired.
Eric Winston: Retired.
Brandon Tate: KC, 1 year vet min.
Mo Sanu: Giants, 5 years 5.5m AAV.
Marvin Jones: Bengals, 4 years, 7.5m AAV.
Vincent Rey: Bengals, 3 years 3.5m AAV.
Emmanuel Lamur: Dolphins, 1 year 1.5 mil AAV.

[Shake n Blake]

Leon Hall:  Bengals, 2 years, 3m AAV.
Andre Smith:  Ravens, 3 years, 6m AAV.
Adam Jones:  Bengals, 2 years, 5.5m AAV.
Reggie Nelson:  Bengals, 2 years, 6.5m AAV.
George Iloka:  Vikings, 5 years, 5.5 m AAV.
Wallace Gilberry:  Vikings, 1 year, 2m.
Brandon Thomspon:  Browns, 2 years, 1.5m AAV.
Pat Sims:  Retired.
Eric Winston:  Bengals, 1 year, 850k.
Brandon Tate:  Bengals, 1 year 750k.
Mo Sanu:  Browns, 5 years 5.0m AAV.
Marvin Jones:  Bengals, 4 years, 6.5m AAV.
Vincent Rey:  Bengals, 3 years 3.0m AAV.
Emmanuel Lamur:  Browns, 1 year 1.2 mil AAV.

[leonardfan40]

Only another week or so before teams can begin to contact agents of FA. Let's get a few more predictions in here. How do yo see things shaking out for our FA's this year?

[McC]

Do the Vikings need a S? Ot is it just the Zimmer connection?

[ItsOdellThurman]

(02-20-2016, 06:54 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Leon Hall     MIAMI, 1-2 years, $2.5 AAV
Andre Smith  MIN, 3-4 years, $6.5 AAV
Reggie Nelson CIN, 2-3 years, $4.5 AAV
Vincent Rey    CIN, 2-3 years, $3 AAV
Adam Jones    CIN, 2-3 years, $5 AAV
Emmanuel Lamur  NYG, 1-2 years, $2 AAV
Wallace Gilberry  CIN, 1-2 years, $3 AAV
Mohamed Sanu  CLE, 3-4 years, $4 AAV
George Iloka  CIN, 4-5 years, $7 AAV
Eric Winston  CIN, 1-2 years, $1 AAV
Brandon Thompson  MIN, 1-2 years, $1 AAV
Marvin Jones  CIN, 4-5 years, $6.5 AAV
Brandon Tate  CIN, 1-2 years, $1 AAV
Pat Sims        CIN, 1-2 years, $1.5 AAV

I'll probably make some changes to this in the future, just wanted to get something down, feel free to do the same any time for the next few weeks. Edits made after information begins to be leaked/announced won't count.

I don't see any way we sign Nelson, A. Jones, Iloka, Rey and M. Jones.

[leonardfan40]

(02-29-2016, 01:25 PM)ItsOdellThurman Wrote: I don't see any way we sign Nelson, A. Jones, Iloka, Rey and M. Jones.

Yeah I'm gonna change one of the safeties, probably Nelson. Just have to decide where to send him

[ItsOdellThurman]

I'd love it, but you have us tapped out on cap space just with those guys, and it's gonna be like 8-10M aside for draftees.

[leonardfan40]

(02-29-2016, 01:43 PM)ItsOdellThurman Wrote: I'd love it, but you have us tapped out on cap space just with those guys, and it's gonna be like 8-10M aside for draftees.

Actually I think I've got about $32 spent there and we should have $38-39 so the math could work. Just depends on how far off some of my contracts are.

[Shake n Blake]

(02-29-2016, 01:56 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Actually I think I've got about $32 spent there and we should have $38-39 so the math could work. Just depends on how far off some of my contracts are.

Are you factoring in $10 million for the rookie pool and the $5 million "injury buffer"?

[BengalChris]

(02-29-2016, 01:56 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Actually I think I've got about $32 spent there and we should have $38-39 so the math could work. Just depends on how far off some of my contracts are.

Mike Brown uses different math. We'll have a rookie pool, injury pool and a roll-over to next year pool. You can expect an article from Hobson any day now saying how we really only have 19M to spend.

[leonardfan40]

(02-29-2016, 04:07 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Mike Brown uses different math. We'll have a rookie pool, injury pool and a roll-over to next year pool. You can expect an article from Hobson any day now saying how we really only have 19M to spend.

Yeah we've all seen those yearly articles lol in reality 2-3 mil is all the rookies could add to our cap, and 3-4 mil is the most we've ever spent because of injuries so the 7 or so mil I have would be enough. 

[BengalChris]

(02-29-2016, 04:16 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Yeah we've all seen those yearly articles lol in reality 2-3 mil is all the rookies could add to our cap, and 3-4 mil is the most we've ever spent because of injuries so the 7 or so mil I have would be enough. 

Would be enough for any other team in the league, but this is Mikey B we're talking about.

[leonardfan40]

(02-29-2016, 04:23 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Would be enough for any other team in the league, but this is Mikey B we're talking about.

I understand where you're coming from and in previous years on the old board I was always trying to be the realist when it comes to FA and who we sign. Always seemed to be telling people we couldn't get this guy or that one, but I think this year will be different and we will see the bengals use more of their cap space. Not because anything has changed with the way they run the front office, but because these are OUR players, not outside signings. Bengals want to keep their own so it isn't completely out of the question that we keep both safeties, and both joneses along with a guy like gillberry or vinny.

But you could easily be right, history is on your side. Get your prediction in tho so you can say I told you so when we let more than half of our big FA's walk.

[BengalChris]

(02-29-2016, 04:59 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: I understand where you're coming from and in previous years on the old board I was always trying to be the realist when it comes to FA and who we sign. Always seemed to be telling people we couldn't get this guy or that one, but I think this year will be different and we will see the bengals use more of their cap space. Not because anything has changed with the way they run the front office, but because these are OUR players, not outside signings. Bengals want to keep their own so it isn't completely out of the question that we keep both safeties, and both joneses along with a guy like gillberry or vinny.

But you could easily be right, history is on your side. Get your prediction in tho so you can say I told you so when we let more than half of our big FA's walk.

I would like nothing more than for this to be the case. But I'm of the I'll believe it when I see it camp presently.

[Bengal Dude]

(02-29-2016, 02:19 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Are you factoring in $10 million for the rookie pool and the $5 million "injury buffer"?

Don't forget our training camp extensions. With Eifert, Gio, and Zietler eligible for new deals, you have to imagine that they want to get them deals asap. I know someone will mention Eifert's 5th year option, but the beat guys have talked about the team wanting to get a deal done before his price rises even further.

[Benton]

Leon Hall CIN, 2 years, $3.25m AAV
Andre Smith BAL, 4 years, $6.5m AAV
Reggie Nelson CIN, 3 years, $4m AAV
Vincent Rey MIA, 3 years, $3.5m AAV
Adam Jones CIN, 2 years, $5m AAV
Emmanuel Lamur CIN, 2 years, $2m AAV
Wallace Gilberry CHI, 2 years, $2m AAV
Mohamed Sanu BAL 3 years, $3.5m AAV
George Iloka CIN, 5 years, $7.5m AAV
Eric Winston CIN, 1 year, $1m AAV
Brandon Thompson CIN, 4 years, $1.25m AAV
Marvin Jones CIN, 4 years, $7m AAV
Brandon Tate CLE, 2 years, $1.5m AAV
Pat Sims CIN, 1 year, $1.5m AAV

[BengalChris]

(02-29-2016, 05:52 PM)Bengal Dude Wrote: Don't forget our training camp extensions. With Eifert, Gio, and Zietler eligible for new deals, you have to imagine that they want to get them deals asap. I know someone will mention Eifert's 5th year option, but the beat guys have talked about the team wanting to get a deal done before his price rises even further.

Eifert would be a great extension. Zietler would also be a nice one to get done. Gio, for all intents and purposes can wait. I don't see any reason to sign a backup RB to an early extension unless it's very team favorable.

Kirkpatrick will need to earn his payday from next season's play, IMO.

[BengalChris]

Adam Jones CIN, 2 years, $6.5m AAV [top cover corners are expensive and $6.5M is cheap]
Reggie Nelson CIN, 2 years, $4.5m AAV
Marvin Jones CIN, 4 years, $6m AAV
Emmanuel Lamur CIN, 2 years, $2m AAV [I expect the team to wait on this one if they plan to draft a cover LB.]
Eric Winston CIN, 1 year, $1m AAV [probably still better than Fisher, like last year.]
The above adds up to $20m, which is probably our upper limiting on spending for this year's free agents. We'll still need a returner. This leaves about $16M for rookies, other team's free agents, injury signings and rollover to 2017 and working out an extension for Eifert.

Leon Hall (somewhere else - MIA, NE, Pitts or BAL) 2 years, $3m AAV
George Iloka (somewhere else), 4 years, $6.5m (7m with incentives) AAV [someone is going to pay him for his potential and that will put him outside what the Bengals will pay. Shawn Williams is an unrestricted FA after 2016, FYI.]
Vincent Rey (somewhere else where he can start), 3 years, $3.5m AAV
Wallace Gilberry (somewhere else - to a team that wants to create a DL rotation), 2 years, $2m AAV
Mohamed Sanu (somewhere else - BAL, JAX, CLE, SF) 3 years, $3.25m AAV [he'll go somewhere where he can get more targets and more $'s.]
Andre Smith (somewhere else - a team with OL problems like JAX, TENN, SF, BAL), 3 years, $5m AAV

Brandon Thompson (nowhere until recovers - I really don't see anyone signing him except us and since he's never really done all that much and is coming off an ACL, I really think he'll be on the sidelines for now.)
Brandon Tate (our part time returner will be out of the league or may be signed by a team as an injury replacement at some point.)
Pat Sims (out of the league by end of training camp)

Cap saving moves we could make would be:
1. Call the Hunt experiment a done and send him packing.
2. Sign Zietler to an extension which would reduce his salary this year from $8M to about $6M per year. He might do this for more guaranteed money in the contract. At $8M for 2016 Zietler and DeCastro are the highest paid OGs in the league.