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OK, I saw that Hobs got a story up before I did -- but I picked the brain of former exec Joe Banner and Jason Fitzgerald over at OTC - with some inside information as well.
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2016/03/03/cincinnati-bengals-true-cap-space-2016-nfl-free-agency/81287746/
I saw the reaction on the last thread, but since I like to interact with everyone I hope you don't mind me starting a new one. Fire any questions my way. To start, I think when it's time to talk money, it won't be $15 ... but the math is pretty simple on the way down from $38.
As for when the team will start...maybe tomorrow but most likely this weekend.
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With the Bengals being so "cap strapped" and seeming to want to keep at least one of our WR's and one S along with some of the lower level guys does that mean Adam Jones is as good as gone? Any way we keep one of Jones/Sanu and one of Iloka/Nelson while keeping Jones too? Or is the only way he comes back if we lose both WR's or both S's?
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Checking some of the other threads now - apparently this is a thing.
By all means - get at me. If I wrote everything I had it would be a novella, so I can offer up some more insight into all of this.
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First off thanks for taking time to talk to us about this and if my questions seem angry in tone its because they are but my anger isn't directed at you its directed at the front office. I understand you are just the messenger.
1st question- Why are the Bengals so reluctant to cut players when the rest of the league isn't ? I mean they could save close to 10 million dollars if they cut Rey Malaga, Domata peko, AJ Hawk, and Mike Nugent.
2nd question- Why don't they value Iloka at all? Guy has everything you want in a safety yet the Bengals still haven't signed him up yet. They kept Leon last year and he cost them 9 million dollars against the cap and he was a nickel back over 30 with two Achilles tears. Why are they so hesitant to pay a première safety.
3rd question- Mo already stated he wants out and Jones will cost a ton of money. What's there plan b when it comes to a WR if they can't get either done?
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Marvin Jones, Sanu, Iloka, Nelson. Do you know how the Bengals have them prioritized? Are there any offers on the table now? If not, do the Bengals plan on allowing them to test the market and then make a counter offer if given the chance? Who are some of the outside free agents the Bengals are targeting? Or what positions would they like to strengthen before the draft? Or do they wait until after the initial wave of signings and then decide? Who scouts the outside free agents? If the coaches are busy with the draft process, who meets with the outside FAs? Explain the behind the scenes FA process within the Bengals' front office as Mike Brown transitions from the decision making process and how has it changed? How might it change? Who manages the cap for the Bengals? The Bengals roll over unused cap space each year since the rule change, what happens to the roll over from two seasons ago? What percentage of the cap spending did the Bengals meet and will the team by team percentages be released to the fans?
Thanks.
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I find it all rather simple. Jim, correct me if I'm wrong on any point.
1. There's actually about $36M in cap space if you count all contracts, dead money and bonus money.
2. There are signing bonuses and other up front money that gets spread out over the term of the contract, but does need to be paid by the team on new contracts in year one. Also, the team could front load the contract to consume more of this year's cap and have a team friendly cap number for the balance of the contract. This elevates the actual spent money in 2016 and there's only so much money on hand to spend.
3. We always have an injury pool figured in, but rarely use much of it. Last year when Dalton got injured the team did explore signing a vet QB, but opted for Wenning instead. That isn't always possible. When AJ Green was injured in 2014 we opted to waste cap money by signing Little, who lived up to his name in every way on the field.
4. The most pressing free agent for next year is Eifert. The team could exercise it's 5th year team option or sign him to a long term deal. I expect they'll go for the long term deal and failing that will exercise the option. But this is going to take some up front money.
5. The team is overpaying for Zietler and Kirkpatrick for 2016 by exercising their 5th year team options. Zietler will be the highest paid OG in the NFL this year as a result. Kirkpatrick will be paid $7.5M in 2016 and I'd much rather have Adam Jones at that price. The team could try to come to long term extensions and reduce this year's cap numbers, but don't look for them to do that.
6. We don't know the team's actual financial state. It just might not have all of the $155M plus the additional bonus and up front money for new contracts signed this year.
7. The team can rollover money unused cap money to 2017 but it needs to tell the NFL how much it wants to rollover. It can also just not spend the money and not roll it over either. Thus it will never be spent. The team had $25M leftover from 2011, but didn't roll it over to 2012. Yep, you read that right.
8. We draft later, so our rookie pool should be smaller.
9. The team likes to get compensatory picks and this is factored into free agency. Whether they admit it or not. When the 2017 draft comes around there will be people posting how smart the Bengals were to let some of these guys go, even if we go one and done again.
10. The team likes the draft on the defensive side of the ball. A 4.4 or faster corner will be available for the Bengals in the first round and that's my early prediction for this year's #1 pick if we don't resign Adam Jones.
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(03-04-2016, 02:09 AM)BengalChris Wrote: I find it all rather simple. Jim, correct me if I'm wrong on any point.
1. There's actually about $36M in cap space if you count all contracts, dead money and bonus money.
2. There are signing bonuses and other up front money that gets spread out over the term of the contract, but does need to be paid by the team on new contracts in year one. Also, the team could front load the contract to consume more of this year's cap and have a team friendly cap number for the balance of the contract. This elevates the actual spent money in 2016 and there's only so much money on hand to spend.
3. We always have an injury pool figured in, but rarely use much of it. Last year when Dalton got injured the team did explore signing a vet QB, but opted for Wenning instead. That isn't always possible. When AJ Green was injured in 2014 we opted to waste cap money by signing Little, who lived up to his name in every way on the field.
4. The most pressing free agent for next year is Eifert. The team could exercise it's 5th year team option or sign him to a long term deal. I expect they'll go for the long term deal and failing that will exercise the option. But this is going to take some up front money.
5. The team is overpaying for Zietler and Kirkpatrick for 2016 by exercising their 5th year team options. Zietler will be the highest paid OG in the NFL this year as a result. Kirkpatrick will be paid $7.5M in 2016 and I'd much rather have Adam Jones at that price. The team could try to come to long term extensions and reduce this year's cap numbers, but don't look for them to do that.
6. We don't know the team's actual financial state. It just might not have all of the $155M plus the additional bonus and up front money for new contracts signed this year.
7. The team can rollover money unused cap money to 2017 but it needs to tell the NFL how much it wants to rollover. It can also just not spend the money and not roll it over either. Thus it will never be spent. The team had $25M leftover from 2011, but didn't roll it over to 2012. Yep, you read that right.
8. We draft later, so our rookie pool should be smaller.
9. The team likes to get compensatory picks and this is factored into free agency. Whether they admit it or not. When the 2017 draft comes around there will be people posting how smart the Bengals were to let some of these guys go, even if we go one and done again.
10. The team likes the draft on the defensive side of the ball. A 4.4 or faster corner will be available for the Bengals in the first round and that's my early prediction for this year's #1 pick if we don't resign Adam Jones.
A lot of this is a solid take, especially the injury pool. We see pool numbers thrown around but you're right they pretty much pull of their on PS anyway so the raise isn't that much so that could be chipped down a bit or take it out of the money rolled over if another rare Larry Johnson scenario happens. I wanna touch on point 5 regarding their own guys. I see what you're spelling out regarding Dre and Kevin, but I don't know that actually reducing their numbers is needed. You work toward a long term deal, but I can't see either guy conceding their 2016 number nor the team's need to. You could tell Zeitler you'd make 3/4 of his number guaranteed if he signs for X dollars and lower it 15%, but he knows you aren't cutting him so why not focus on future guaranteed money? Let him be the highest paid guard, he knows you did it because you had to (in part because the rookies were and are still somewhat unknown). He also may be the highest paid guard on the market when he hits it, and even if Cincy has a history of paying a tackle before a guard that doesn't lower what the market will actually pay him. So rather than fight him for 1M this year, boost his guaranteed money in a long term deal if need be. I also suspect that they'll draft a mid round G/C type and hope to eek out another year from Whit as OL insurance in general if Zeitler hits the market.
As for Dre, the team is in a weird spot. He has played well enough to start, and actually handled some situations better than thought of but he hasn't wowed anyone into another deal. His deal is more about the corner position itself. If you're right about point 10 (I'm thinking top 3 rounds) then they still don't play rookie corners much anyway so that could be another "we like him but we still need insurance" situations. Ideally, they need a 2 year player at least to bridge the gap between a rookie, Dennard coming off the injury and the tweener with potential Shaw. Rather than pay a premium on Dre now, if Jones can't be that short term fix then they'll have to add a vet on his last legs like Cromartie or 1st rd bust like Claiborne as reasonablly cheap depth to get to next year. Even if I didn't pick the best players, you catch my drift, the types that Pacman and Newman were when they got to Cincy. It wouldn't impact the draft and is a nicer alternative to giving Dre the reasonably big deal he may need to actually sign a contract. Those two signing long term would get something productive done this offseason, but I don't know if they actually will sign nor if they'll give up much in terms of cap relief this year given their situations.
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(03-04-2016, 04:16 AM)phil413 Wrote: A lot of this is a solid take, especially the injury pool. We see pool numbers thrown around but you're right they pretty much pull of their on PS anyway so the raise isn't that much so that could be chipped down a bit or take it out of the money rolled over if another rare Larry Johnson scenario happens. I wanna touch on point 5 regarding their own guys. I see what you're spelling out regarding Dre and Kevin, but I don't know that actually reducing their numbers is needed. You work toward a long term deal, but I can't see either guy conceding their 2016 number nor the team's need to. You could tell Zeitler you'd make 3/4 of his number guaranteed if he signs for X dollars and lower it 15%, but he knows you aren't cutting him so why not focus on future guaranteed money? Let him be the highest paid guard, he knows you did it because you had to (in part because the rookies were and are still somewhat unknown). He also may be the highest paid guard on the market when he hits it, and even if Cincy has a history of paying a tackle before a guard that doesn't lower what the market will actually pay him. So rather than fight him for 1M this year, boost his guaranteed money in a long term deal if need be. I also suspect that they'll draft a mid round G/C type and hope to eek out another year from Whit as OL insurance in general if Zeitler hits the market.
As for Dre, the team is in a weird spot. He has played well enough to start, and actually handled some situations better than thought of but he hasn't wowed anyone into another deal. His deal is more about the corner position itself. If you're right about point 10 (I'm thinking top 3 rounds) then they still don't play rookie corners much anyway so that could be another "we like him but we still need insurance" situations. Ideally, they need a 2 year player at least to bridge the gap between a rookie, Dennard coming off the injury and the tweener with potential Shaw. Rather than pay a premium on Dre now, if Jones can't be that short term fix then they'll have to add a vet on his last legs like Cromartie or 1st rd bust like Claiborne as reasonablly cheap depth to get to next year. Even if I didn't pick the best players, you catch my drift, the types that Pacman and Newman were when they got to Cincy. It wouldn't impact the draft and is a nicer alternative to giving Dre the reasonably big deal he may need to actually sign a contract. Those two signing long term would get something productive done this offseason, but I don't know if they actually will sign nor if they'll give up much in terms of cap relief this year given their situations.
I don't know what their cap hits would be this year, but the incentive to sign a long term deal is injury and guaranteed money. If they get hurt this year it will diminish the value of the next contract. It's a risk benefit thing. Is the risk of injury worth the benefit of a potentially higher pay day next year? Or does the benefit of slightly less guaranteed money outweigh the risk of injury diminishing their next contract even more?
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Oh, God, the rookie pool BS. Please somebody correct me if I'm wrong.
I checked Spotrac. The estimated $36 million cap is for the top 51 and the dead space money. The rookie pool is approx 7 million. If they draft 7 rookies, let's assume all seven make the 53 man roster. Players from the top 51 along with their salaries will be replace by the rookies and their rookie contracts.
Hobson and Joe Banner make is seem like it is $36M - $7M = $29M cap space remaining. It's not like that at all. The rooke deals are replacing pre-existing deals already on the books.
The injury pool is an excuse not to spend money. Jim, can you find out how much money the Bengals have actually spent from the injury pool? I would be surprised if it were anything like they claim. When was the last time the Bengals didn't roll over unused cap space? Many players have split salaries in case of injury which reduces their cap hit. Hobson and Banner don't mention split salaries. If they don't have the cap space they can renegotiate with a player to get into cap compliance. Incentives; I remember Hobson explaining how the Bengals needed to plan for Keith Rivers incentives in the second year because he didn't earn them during his rookie season, yada, yada, yada.
Qualifying contracts for veteran players: their cap charge is the same as a two year player.
Workout bonuses: Do they Bengals have 100% participation? The NFL deducts the money from the teams and any unearned workout bonuses get returned to the team.
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(03-04-2016, 02:09 AM)BengalChris Wrote: 6. We don't know the team's actual financial state. It just might not have all of the $155M plus the additional bonus and up front money for new contracts signed this year.
I'm fairly certain this is not the reason seeing as how the NFL is making money hand over fist. Don't owners make just slightly less money per year than that year's salary cap? (Since it's a 50-50 split, but the owners have to pay coaches, refs, and staff from their side.) Conservative guess of $130m/yr of profit per owner.
If the team still can't afford to run their team (still don't buy that as the reason), then it needs to be sold to someone who can. Plain and simple.
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(03-04-2016, 09:33 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I'm fairly certain this is not the reason seeing as how the NFL is making money hand over fist. Don't owners make just slightly less money per year than that year's salary cap? (Since it's a 50-50 split, but the owners have to pay coaches, refs, and staff from their side.) Conservative guess of $130m/yr of profit per owner.
If the team still can't afford to run their team (still don't buy that as the reason), then it needs to be sold to someone who can. Plain and simple.
I seriously doubt Mike Brown is taking home $130M a year. My guess is that there have been years in the past where he's taken home less than his top players. I remember one year where he took out a personal loan so the team could pay the signing bonus for a player. If I remember correctly it was for Carl Pickens, but it could have been someone else.
Now the team is in better financial condition than it was when Mike Brown were deciding the draft picks [thank God], but it's still one of the lower income teams. Not as bad as say Jacksonville, which appears to be on life support until it can be sold and moved to London.
Not each team took in $310M ($155M x 2). That's the average and the Bengals income is certainly lower than that. And from that comes a massive insurance payment, fees to the league, marketing costs, facilities costs, uniforms, travel, hotels, meals, equipment, etc, etc, etc. The list of expenses is a lot longer than most might imagine and those costs have only gone up and up some more.
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I think we all expect the Bengals to re-sign (at least) one of their FA safeties, one of their FA WRs, one of their FA CBs, and maybe Vincent Rey.
If MLJ, Adam, and Iloka get close to what they are asking/hoping and the available amount to spend (or rather what the team is willing to spend) is actually ~$15 million, it's not likely that all three of those FAs will be back with the Bengals. Vincent Rey also wants to start and earn starter money, so that could mean he hauls in $4 million a year.
With all this doom and gloom coming out the past week or so, I'm expecting Reggie Nelson and Adam Jones back. I'm choosing Adam Jones over Marvin Jones because the Bengals put a huge value on CBs and Adam gives further value as a return specialist. I'll add VRey back too since the Bengals would be without Burfict for three games and the only other signal caller for the defense is Rey Maualuga. If both WRs walk, I expect the Bengals will pick up some value/aging WR to fill the void. A WR will be drafted high as well.
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(03-04-2016, 05:37 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Oh, God, the rookie pool BS. Please somebody correct me if I'm wrong.
I checked Spotrac. The estimated $36 million cap is for the top 51 and the dead space money. The rookie pool is approx 7 million. If they draft 7 rookies, let's assume all seven make the 53 man roster. Players from the top 51 along with their salaries will be replace by the rookies and their rookie contracts.
Hobson and Joe Banner make is seem like it is $36M - $7M = $29M cap space remaining. It's not like that at all. The rooke deals are replacing pre-existing deals already on the books.
...
Not exactly. Hall's $9M contract from last year is gone and is already part of that $36M, as are the contracts of all current free agents. However, if a draft pick replaces a player currently under contract, say like a player named Margus Hunt (cough, cough), then Hunt's contract would go away, but any dead money in that contract would still count against the cap. For Hunt I believe the dead money in the deal if he were cut this year would be $262K. If we sign a new Kicker, then all of Nugent's money would return to the cap since there is no dead money in it.
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(03-04-2016, 11:16 AM)BengalChris Wrote: I seriously doubt Mike Brown is taking home $130M a year. My guess is that there have been years in the past where he's taken home less than his top players. I remember one year where he took out a personal loan so the team could pay the signing bonus for a player. If I remember correctly it was for Carl Pickens, but it could have been someone else.
Now the team is in better financial condition than it was when Mike Brown were deciding the draft picks [thank God], but it's still one of the lower income teams. Not as bad as say Jacksonville, which appears to be on life support until it can be sold and moved to London.
That $130m estimate would be pre-taxes and not counting signing bonuses and all that, but I refuse to believe he's made less than his top players. Revenue sharing prevents that from ever happening.
Every year you make little due to a lot of signing bonuses, you're getting it back in a different year, the salary cap makes sure of that.
For the 2010 and 2011 seasons, the Panthers' owner had $112m in profit after everything was paid for. The cap increases because the NFL's whole profit increases due to the 50/50 split, and the cap has raised $35m from 2011 to 2015. The owners are doing fine.
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The biggest frustration isn't necessarily the cap number NOW. It's the refusal to add additional cap space by cutting the right players. The biggest criticism of the Bengals is they are very loyal to certain players and have never shown the foresight to look at the current, under-contract guys and see where they could upgrade.
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Great they got you buying the lame cap talking points. It's not like we don't have other teams in the league to compare to. And they seem to be fine spending the cap on their playrs or outside players each year without setting aside over half the cap for injury settlements (who did we sign last yeas due to injury?, cause we sure set aside a chunk of the cap for it), rookie pay, future contracts (that we now can't afford because we need money for...... you guessed it.... future contracts), and all the other crap they claim they need the salary cap for.
This is an annual thing for this board and the city, you can't come with those talking points and think we'll fall for it, it's a low blow to Bengal fans and we are far smarter than that.
Watch how much other teams with far less cap space will spend when free agency opens up...... I guess they won't have rookies, injuries, and future contracts.
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(03-04-2016, 12:06 PM)jj22 Wrote: Great they got you buying the lame cap talking points. It's not like we don't have other teams in the league to compare to. And they seem to be fine spending the cap on their playrs or outside players each year without setting aside over half the cap for injury settlements (who did we sign last yeas due to injury?, cause we sure set aside a chunk of the cap for it), rookie pay, future contracts (that we now can't afford because we need money for...... you guessed it.... future contracts), and all the other crap they claim they need the salary cap for.
This is an annual thing for this board and the city, you can't come with those talking points and think we'll fall for it, it's a low blow to Bengal fans and we are far smarter than that.
Watch how much other teams with far less cap space will spend when free agency opens up...... I guess they won't have rookies, injuries, and future contracts.
Every year we also see teams have to cut veteran starters because they are over the cap.
I have not seen anyone show that the bengals actually spend that much less than all other teams.
Has anyone actually posted that number yet are have you all been to busy patting yourselves on the back for "knowing" that the Bengals are the cheapest team in the league.
The claim that the Bengals just develop players and let them walk away is not true. We have lost a total of 4 decent players to free agency over the last 15 years (Justin Smith, Eric Steainbach, Johnathan Joseph, and Michael Johnson). Some people might add Houshmandzadeh, but we did give him a second contract and he did not leave until he was 32.
Meanwhile we have stepped up and paid top dollar to keep many veteran starters like Palmer, Ochcocinco, Rudi, TJ, Willie Anderson, Levi Jones, Bobbie Williams, Rich Braham, Robert Geathers, Cedric Benson, Whitworth, Peko, Reggie Nelson, Dunlap, Atkins, Leon Hall, Dalton, Boling, Maualuga, and others.
Like most people here I would like to see the bengals step up and sign at least one upper tier free agent to help put us over the top, but that does not mean I have to act like they don't spend money to keep their best players here.
I honestly don't know if the Bengals spend less money than all the other teams, but I would like to see the numbers instead of just all this squealing about the Bengals are the cheapest team in the league. And I am not talking about handing out big "play money" contracts that never get paid. I am talking about how much money they are actually spending on salary each year.
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(03-04-2016, 11:16 AM)BengalChris Wrote: I seriously doubt Mike Brown is taking home $130M a year. My guess is that there have been years in the past where he's taken home less than his top players. I remember one year where he took out a personal loan so the team could pay the signing bonus for a player. If I remember correctly it was for Carl Pickens, but it could have been someone else.
Now the team is in better financial condition than it was when Mike Brown were deciding the draft picks [thank God], but it's still one of the lower income teams. Not as bad as say Jacksonville, which appears to be on life support until it can be sold and moved to London.
Not each team took in $310M ($155M x 2). That's the average and the Bengals income is certainly lower than that. And from that comes a massive insurance payment, fees to the league, marketing costs, facilities costs, uniforms, travel, hotels, meals, equipment, etc, etc, etc. The list of expenses is a lot longer than most might imagine and those costs have only gone up and up some more.
I think probably everything you state is most likely true. We also know from court documents the Brown family paid $200 million in cash to purchase shares of the team from other co-owners. I"ve also read the Bengals make a profit from the stadium deal. So I don't think they are hurting for money. Pretty much everything is speculation because their financial information isn't public record, although it seems like you have some good sources.
Regardless, the salary cap is the same for all 32 teams. Everyone has to deal with rookie pools, injuries, workout and incentive bonuses, etc. I'm just so sick and tired of the annual poor mouthing at the start of free agency as to why they can't do better than their track record of "kicking tires" because of the rookie pool and the injury pool and the other pools. Especially, given they are usually in the top thrid of the league in available cap space. Combined with thier build through the draft for the future and retain our own approach. It's time to re-sign Iloka and Marvin Jones, two guys they drafted to build for the future, but they may not be able to re-sign them because they have to build for the future. So safety and wide receiver become more of a draft need and then they're just spinning their wheels.
Oh, I just thought about dead money. They claim they manage dead money well because it is so low. Well, yes and no. It's not good to have dead money, but it is a way of managing the cap. Usually teams get dead money when the trade a player or cut an aging vet with a high cap hit. The reason why teams cut an aging vet with a high cap hit is because it saves the player's salary toward the cap. The dead money is from the ammoritized bonus spread out over the length of the contract. The player was paid that money when they signed the contract. Example: Chad Johnson, the Bengals had a much better trade offer from Washington and would have been better off in the long term, but one of the factors was the dead money. They act like "we can't spend that dead money," but they already spent it. Don't worry about the dead money if it can give you needed cap space..
Most of this is just random ranting so don't think it is directed at you.
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(03-04-2016, 11:37 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That $130m estimate would be pre-taxes and not counting signing bonuses and all that, but I refuse to believe he's made less than his top players. Revenue sharing prevents that from ever happening.
Every year you make little due to a lot of signing bonuses, you're getting it back in a different year, the salary cap makes sure of that.
For the 2010 and 2011 seasons, the Panthers' owner had $112m in profit after everything was paid for. The cap increases because the NFL's whole profit increases due to the 50/50 split, and the cap has raised $35m from 2011 to 2015. The owners are doing fine.
I read an article last year that said each owner will make an additional $30 million going forward simply because of the new television contract. To think that an owner of a billion dollar NFL franchise makes less than the players is ludicrous... that is just not how the world works.
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(03-04-2016, 12:37 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Every year we also see teams have to cut veteran starters because they are over the cap.
I have not seen anyone show that the bengals actually spend that much less than all other teams.
Has anyone actually posted that number yet are have you all been to busy patting yourselves on the back for "knowing" that the Bengals are the cheapest team in the league.
The claim that the Bengals just develop players and let them walk away is not true. We have lost a total of 4 decent players to free agency over the last 15 years (Justin Smith, Eric Steainbach, Johnathan Joseph, and Michael Johnson). Some people might add Houshmandzadeh, but we did give him a second contract and he did not leave until he was 32.
Meanwhile we have stepped up and paid top dollar to keep many veteran starters like Palmer, Ochcocinco, Rudi, TJ, Willie Anderson, Levi Jones, Bobbie Williams, Rich Braham, Robert Geathers, Cedric Benson, Whitworth, Peko, Reggie Nelson, Dunlap, Atkins, Leon Hall, Dalton, Boling, Maualuga, and others.
Like most people here I would like to see the bengals step up and sign at least one upper tier free agent to help put us over the top, but that does not mean I have to act like they don't spend money to keep their best players here.
I honestly don't know if the Bengals spend less money than all the other teams, but I would like to see the numbers instead of just all this squealing about the Bengals are the cheapest team in the league. And I am not talking about handing out big "play money" contracts that never get paid. I am talking about how much money they are actually spending on salary each year.
Fair enough. I honestly don't know either.
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