Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory

[PDub80]

EDIT: PLEASE NOTE, THE FOLLOWING STATS ARE REGARDING PASSER RATING AND NOT THE CONTROVERSIAL TOTAL QBR STAT ESPN USES. STATS FOR PASSER RATINGS IN THIS THREAD BY THE OP WERE GOTTEN BY USING GAME BY GAME LOGS ON ESPN.COM UNDER THE RAT STAT

I know it is long, but hear me out on this. It's sort of my Da Vinci Code!!!!!

A different way to view the problem with Andy Dalton and the QB position on the Bengals....

One of my best friends and I had lunch today and talked sports. He's a life long Browns fan and I am a life long Bengals fan. Neither of us are homers by any stretch. I was talking to him about this thread and some of the arguments in both sides. He summed up my thoughts incredibly and I thought I would share because it might better describe what a lot of us less-than-enthusiastic Dalton guys are thinking when it comes to McCarron.

He brought up Bill Belicheck and how he once said that he doesn't focus on a players ceiling, but instead is more interested in their floor. Meaning: What's the worst the guy is going to be any given week? Basically, the thought is that he can game plan around that is more of a certainty than hoping a guy plays like a star every game. With Tom Brady in particular, his thinking was that even in Tom's worst games he was able to bring back or keep Michigan close enough to win at the end of games - even if he had been playing poorly most of the game.

With Dalton, his floor is abysmally low and that pendulum swings wildly based on almost no real trend. He can be a star one week against a strong opponent and then drop off and just have a terrible game against a weak one. What stinks as a fan is that if his floor was just a good or even average game it would be good enough with the talent around him to win against most NFL teams most weeks - and you can ride that kind of QB into a Superbowl. With AJ McCarron, I am hoping that AJ's floor is consistently higher than Dalton's and that he plays above it with more consistency.

Some stats to back up AD's inconsistency and show his floor and how many times he reaches it....

Game by game QBR as per ESPN for 2013 & 2014

NOTE: I am putting an * if they lost

2013
1 97.2 *
2 81.7
3 105.5
4 58.2 *
5 81.1
6 105.9
7 135.9
8 125.7
9 55.4 *(OT)
10 52.3 *(OT)
11 62.7
12 83.6
13 120.5
14 86.4 *
15 136.2
16 62.2
PO 67.0 *

2014
1 98.7
2 116.6
3 68.9
4 117.4 *
5 93.5
6 55.4 *
7 89.3
8 79.1
9 2.0 *
10 143.9
11 84.6
12 60.7
13 128.8 *
14 53.6
15 93.1
16 83.7 *
PO 63.4 *

- What does this mean? Compare it to (most) other good QBs: Rivers, Wilson, Alex Smith, Big Ben, Eli Manning, Romo and a host of others and you will see an occasional dip into a low QBR, but it is rare and typically few and far between on a season by season basis.

- Guys with similar erratic play and lows: Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco (the only one who has won a Superbowl). Kaepernick gets a special mention here because he was erratic and had lows in 2014, but his QBRs in 2012 & 2013 were incredibly strong all the way through the season and the playoffs with only a dip or two.

Even more interesting is that none of the above low floor QBs made it past the 2nd round last year. The only two to make it out of the first round were Cam Newton (playing a beat up Cardinals team), and Joe Flacco (playing a familiar opponent in the Steelers).

Conclusion: Andy Dalton's capable ceiling (his good to best games) is fine. For the Bengals to go far into the playoffs and be consistent the QB position doesn't have to throw 100+ ratings. Instead, it has to raise it's floor by (guessing) 15 points in QBR from the mid 50's into 70 or above territory. I don't care if that is AD, AJ MC, or some guy out on the street or whoever. If the floor of the QB position stays around the 50's the chances of winning in the playoffs drops off a cliff.

[PDub80]

The following is contributed by rfaulk32 in the thread I originally posted this in.....

Yup. And here's a comparison of the QBs over the last 2 years that have played at least 22 games and how their floor has looked. First number is how many sub70 ratings they had in '14. Second number is how many sub70 ratings they had in '13, then the total for the 2 years.

[PDub80]

Ok, as was asked in another thread, lets look at some of the numbers of floor & frequency of QBs vs. each other and compare them to Dalton.....

I will look at the 2013 & 2014 seasons and post # of sub 70 games & a < X rounded +/- to the 10 for the QBR for those games so we can see how low the player is capable of dipping and how often. I will also post their playoff (PO) QBR if applicable. Andy Dalton is listed at the top of the list in larger font & bold so it is easy to reference.

Combining 2013 & 1014 seasons

Andy Dalton: 4 <70, 5 <60, 0 <50, 1 <10 ; (PO) 67, 63.4

Luck - 3 <70 , 2 <60, 1 <50, 0 <40 ; (PO) 98.7, 53, 104, 76.2, 23 (NOTE: The low PO scores were both losses. His floor QBR and frequency has improved each season.)

Tannehill  - 1 <70 , 1 <60, 2 <50 , 0 <40 ; (NO PO) Steadily improved his floor to 0 games under 70 in 2014.

Wilson - 1 < 70, 1 <60, 3 <50, 0 <40 ; (PO) 67.6, 104.6, 123.1, 149.2, 44.3, 110.6

Tom Brady - 4 <70, 3 <60, 0 <50 ; (PO) 99.3, 100.4, 101.1, 78.4, 93.9 (NOTE: a lot of Tom's games in the 70s were within a point or two or even .1 of points from being in the next category up)

Alex Smith - 2 <70, 2 <60, 1 <50 ; (PO) 119.7


What does the above show?

- How bad and how often other QB's reach their bad vs Andy Dalton's bad and frequency of bad.

- I think it shows that Andy Dalton's floor hovers in the 50's. The other QBs reached their floor and/or have a floor as low as Dalton's with less frequency as well. I am throwing out the game where AD got a 2.

- In the Playoffs, Dalton barely played above his regular season floor or around his floor's average. The other QBs had some spectacular games and an occasional floor game.

What does it NOT show?

- Timing of good/bad plays to win or lose games, YAC, timing, etc. ESPN's Total QBR takes a lot of these things and more into account but it is controversial so I didn't include it. If you look at that number, Dalton has wild swings in rating with highs and rock bottom lows.

- Time of season (with the exception of playoffs)

- Injuries (all teams have them)

- Break down of progression year by year.

I did NOT include guys who played less than a full 16 games as that would not be fair to Andy.

[fredtoast]

(07-07-2015, 07:37 AM)PDub80 Wrote: The following is contributed by rfaulk32 in the thread I originally posted this in.....

Yup. And here's a comparison of the QBs over the last 2 years that have played at least 22 games and how their floor has looked. First number is how many sub70 ratings they had in '14. Second number is how many sub70 ratings they had in '13, then the total for the 2 years.

Doesn't mean a lot to me

Luck produces his worst twice as often as Tannehill.

Russell Wilson produces his worst more than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Tom Brady produces his worst more than Alex Smith or Jay Cutler.


So does this mean that Tannehill is twice as good as Luck, Fitz is better then Wilson, and Smith and Cutler are better than Brady?  I don't think so.

[Bengalfan11164]

(07-07-2015, 09:15 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Doesn't mean a lot to me

Luck produces his worst twice as often as Tannehill.

Russell Wilson produces his worst more than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Tom Brady produces his worst more than Alex Smith or Jay Cutler.


So does this mean that Tannehill is twice as good as Luck, Fitz is better then Wilson, and Smith and Cutler are better than Brady?  I don't think so.

And Dalton performs badly more often (12) and consistently (6 per) than all of them.

[Brownshoe]

This list is misleading too, because Dalton has had only 10 games in the regular season where he has had 70 or worse passer rating. On top of that 6 out of those 10 come from only 2 teams. Obviously pointing out that hes not as inconsistent than what people think. It just points out he is consistently facing good defenses.

[Hoofhearted]

(07-07-2015, 09:55 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: This list is misleading too, because Dalton has had only 10 games in the regular season where he has had 70 or worse passer rating. On top of that 6 out of those 10 come from only 2 teams. Obviously pointing out that hes not as inconsistent than what people think. It just points out he is consistently facing good defenses.

Would you put that more on the coaches for not putting in the correct plan for him to succeed? I think that could also play into the problem quite a bit.

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 09:55 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: This list is misleading too, because Dalton has had only 10 games in the regular season where he has had 70 or worse passer rating. On top of that 6 out of those 10 come from only 2 teams. Obviously pointing out that hes not as inconsistent than what people think. It just points out he is consistently facing good defenses.

Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel, Connor Shaw, Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, Thad Lewis, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Ken Dorsey, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, Trent Dilfer, Jeff Garcia, Kelly Holcomb, Luke McCown, Tim Couch, Doug Pederson, Spergon Wynn, and Ty Detmer all have misleading stats because they've consistently played against good defenses.

I'm glad we can see the truth in all of this with no bias whatsoever!

Honestly, have you EVER had a negative thing to say about Average Andy?? I mean, it's not like the guy is Aaron Rodgers, yet you refuse to just admit his faults. There's always an excuse no matter what. You're quite possibly the most biased person I've ever seen in my life.

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 09:15 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Doesn't mean a lot to me

Luck produces his worst twice as often as Tannehill.

Russell Wilson produces his worst more than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Tom Brady produces his worst more than Alex Smith or Jay Cutler.


So does this mean that Tannehill is twice as good as Luck, Fitz is better then Wilson, and Smith and Cutler are better than Brady?  I don't think so.

This is not who is better (ceiling). This is who is more likely to perform their worst (floor) and what that worst is. I also noted that it does not take into account timing: The quarters in which a player is good or bad in.

- Andrew Luck, Tannehill, Smith, & Brady have each only had 3 games with a sub 60 QBR over that span (Wilson has had 4). DALTON HAS HAD 6 is the point.
- Wilson/Fitzpatrick is a bad comparison because Wilson played more games so I didn't compare their actual numbers vs. <70 performances.

So, yeah, the above quarterbacks are considerably more likely to not stink than AD. In the playoffs, those QBs have posted much better numbers (90s, 100s), while Dalton is in the 60s.

Regular season <80 QBR rankings among the QBs I listed:

Dalton: 10
Brady: 7
Luck: 6
Wilson: 5
Smith: 5
Tannehill: 4


All of the above, with the exception of Tannehill - who hasn't made it yet, have had huge games in the playoffs as well.

Point is: Andy Dalton is more likely to hit his floor (a bad game) and have it be worse (lower) than a lot of other QBs. Like the others, Dalton can also have a great game, but with that low of a floor and frequency, it shows Dalton to be inconsistent. Throw in the playoff numbers and it gets uglier. IF the Bengals can raise the floor of the QB play into the 60's and not 50's they will certainly be better as a whole. Russell Wilson is a bit of an anomaly for having ups and downs, playing big in games when it counts, and having a strong team around him.

[djs7685]

We might as well just shut down the boards because all opinions and even factual evidence is out the window.

Don't you guys know that we play in the AFCN?!?!?! Obviously that's just not fair, so throw it all out! It's all skewed I tell ya, it's skewed!!!

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 10:19 AM)djs7685 Wrote: We might as well just shut down the boards because all opinions and even factual evidence is out the window.

Don't you guys know that we play in the AFCN?!?!?! Obviously that's just not fair, so throw it all out! It's all skewed I tell ya, it's skewed!!!

Oh no! I can't come up with a good argument! Time to start insulting people!

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 09:55 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: This list is misleading too, because Dalton has had only 10 games in the regular season where he has had 70 or worse passer rating. On top of that 6 out of those 10 come from only 2 teams. Obviously pointing out that hes not as inconsistent than what people think. It just points out he is consistently facing good defenses.

Thank you for bringing this post over from the other thread.

I looked at the numbers you gave and it is incorrect.

Andy Dalton had had a <70 QBR against 6 different opponents in the EDIT: 2013 & 2014 regular seasons (multiples are going to be more likely against opponents played twice every season):

Cleveland
Miami 
Baltimore
Tennessee
Indianapolis
Tampa Bay


In the playoffs he has had a <70 rating against 3 different opponents across 4 games:

Houston x2, 51.4 (1st game), 44.7 (2nd game)
San Diego, 67
Indianapolis, 63.4

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 10:25 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Oh no! I can't come up with a good argument! Time to start insulting people!

I don't need a good argument for a guy with his head too far up Andy's ass like you, so just keep making up more excuses for your BFF. It has gotten to the point where it's entertaining to see your constant, never ending spin and excuse for EVERY SINGLE negative that someone brings up.

I've yet to see something that you haven't found an excuse for, no matter how dumb it ends up being.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 10:19 AM)djs7685 Wrote: We might as well just shut down the boards because all opinions and even factual evidence is out the window.

Don't you guys know that we play in the AFCN?!?!?! Obviously that's just not fair, so throw it all out! It's all skewed I tell ya, it's skewed!!!

Stopped reading when you said you used ESPN's Total QBR...That rating is total junk...A QB like Kaep can pass 2 times in a game and run for 150 yards and 2 scores and have a huge QBR...Is he really a QB at this point?  No, the same as Tommy Frazier was never really a QB at Nebraska....Hate that terrible rating system...Do the same stats with just Passer Rating where it does not take running the ball in to effect and takes the skill of a QB throwing the ball and see where these players stand at that point...Not trying to boast Dalton, just trying to make it a fair playing level for any "Quarterback"...Just my opinion

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 10:28 AM)djs7685 Wrote: I don't need a good argument for a guy with his head too far up Andy's ass like you, so just keep making up more excuses for your BFF. It has gotten to the point where it's entertaining to see your constant, never ending spin and excuse for EVERY SINGLE negative that someone brings up.

I've yet to see something that you haven't found an excuse for, no matter how dumb it ends up being.

I still can't think of anything! More insults! More insults!

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 10:29 AM)spazz70 Wrote: Stopped reading when you said you used ESPN's Total QBR...That rating is total junk...A QB like Kaep can pass 2 times in a game and run for 150 yards and 2 scores and have a huge QBR...Is he really a QB at this point?  No, the same as Tommy Frazier was never really a QB at Nebraska....Hate that terrible rating system...Do the same stats with just Passer Rating where it does not take running the ball in to effect and takes the skill of a QB throwing the ball and see where these players stand at that point...Not trying to boast Dalton, just trying to make it a fair playing level for any "Quarterback"...Just my opinion

1. I think you may have quoted the wrong guy.

2. As much as I agree that passer rating > ESPN's made up stat, how on earth can you NOT look at a QB's ability running as well as throwing? That's sort of crazy to completely disregard an entire facet of the game.

I have this strange feeling that running the ball would be a super important QB stat if our guy happened to be better at it. Let's call it a hunch.

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 10:26 AM)PDub80 Wrote: Thank you for bringing this post over from the other thread.

I looked at the numbers you gave and it is incorrect.

Andy Dalton had had a <70 QBR against 6 different opponents in the regular season (multiples are going to be more likely against opponents played twice every season):

Cleveland
Miami 
Baltimore
Tennessee
Indianapolis
Tampa Bay


In the playoffs he has had a <70 rating against 3 different opponents across 4 games:

Houston x2, 51.4 (1st game), 44.7 (2nd game)
San Diego, 67
Indianapolis, 63.4

Wrong. We didn't play Miami last year, and Dalton didn't have a rating below 70 last year against Baltimore.

2014
Ten - 68.9
Ind - 55.4
Cle - 2, 53.6
TB - 60.7

2013
Cle - 58.2, 62.7
Mia - 55.4
Bal - 52.3, 62.2


5+5= 12?

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 10:29 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: I still can't think of anything! More insults! More insults!

The fact is that you don't go out of your way to look at who Russell Wilson (and the other 30 QBs for that matter) has had to play against, you just put your head up Andy's ass and say that Wilson and others are overrated and Andy's stats are "skewed" because he plays in the AFCN.

The fact is that I've honestly NEVER seen a negative comment about Andy that you haven't found an excuse for. Why not just be able to admit that he may not be good at every single thing that makes a QB a high quality player? Would it absolutely kill you if you would look more objective in these conversations? Imaginary rep is silly and doesn't mean much, but it does seem to show that not many people are going along with your constantly insane ramblings and excuses.

I have no problem talking about Andy's positives or negatives. I have no problem talking about games where Andy played well or the games that he played poorly. I also have no problem with going in depth by showing competition played against. The problem comes with trying to have a rational discussion about our QB with YOU. You're too obsessed to have a fair discussion without going full blown crazy when it comes to anything that's even slightly negative about the guy. You're a crazy person.

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 10:29 AM)spazz70 Wrote: Stopped reading when you said you used ESPN's Total QBR...That rating is total junk...A QB like Kaep can pass 2 times in a game and run for 150 yards and 2 scores and have a huge QBR...Is he really a QB at this point?  No, the same as Tommy Frazier was never really a QB at Nebraska....Hate that terrible rating system...Do the same stats with just Passer Rating where it does not take running the ball in to effect and takes the skill of a QB throwing the ball and see where these players stand at that point...Not trying to boast Dalton, just trying to make it a fair playing level for any "Quarterback"...Just my opinion

I did NOT use ESPN'S TQBR. I used their game logs for standard QBR. They list both.

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 10:36 AM)djs7685 Wrote: The fact is that you don't go out of your way to look at who Russell Wilson (and the other 30 QBs for that matter) has had to play against, you just put your head up Andy's ass and say that Wilson and others are overrated and Andy's stats are "skewed" because he plays in the AFCN.

The fact is that I've honestly NEVER seen a negative comment about Andy that you haven't found an excuse for. Why not just be able to admit that he may not be good at every single thing that makes a QB a high quality player? Would it absolutely kill you if you would look more objective in these conversations? Imaginary rep is silly and doesn't mean much, but it does seem to show that not many people are going along with your constantly insane ramblings and excuses.

I have no problem talking about Andy's positives or negatives. I have no problem talking about games where Andy played well or the games that he played poorly. I also have no problem with going in depth by showing competition played against. The problem comes with trying to have a rational discussion about our QB with YOU. You're too obsessed to have a fair discussion without going full blown crazy when it comes to anything that's even slightly negative about the guy. You're a crazy person.

More insults!! I gotta say more insults!!