Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 10:35 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Wrong. We didn't play Miami last year, and Dalton didn't have a rating below 70 last year against Baltimore.

2014
Ten - 68.9
Ind - 55.4
Cle - 2, 53.6
TB - 60.7

2013
Cle - 58.2, 62.7
Mia - 55.4
Bal - 52.3, 62.2


5+5= 12?

The numbers were over 2013 & 2014 as I repeatedly stated. I took from the two most recent back to back years to try to give a larger sample size and show trend or consistency.

I think where you are getting 12 from is because in RFaul34's post that I copied over he lumped playoff games in with regular season. In my further breakdowns I separated them out.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 10:31 AM)djs7685 Wrote: 1. I think you may have quoted the wrong guy.

2. As much as I agree that passer rating > ESPN's made up stat, how on earth can you NOT look at a QB's ability running as well as throwing? That's sort of crazy to completely disregard an entire facet of the game.

I have this strange feeling that running the ball would be a super important QB stat if our guy happened to be better at it. Let's call it a hunch.

I did not quote anyone...I started reading the OP...He stated he used ESPN' Total QBR....Do not like the stat....I do not discount the running ability or the need of it for a facet of a QB in the NFL but to weigh it so heavily as ESPN does is what i disagree with....  All of these running QB gimmicks in the NFL fade away...the defenses are too strong and fast...first it was the wildcat....now it is the read option...look what happened to Kaep last year when they caught up to it...There is a difference between a Randall Cunningham and a Colin Kaepernick....Cunningham was a QB first....Kaep is a runner first...Does that make sense?  Dalton know when to run, They have even ran the read option but it is not a staple of the playbook like it is with Kaep, Wilson and others QBs in the league..Again, just my opinion

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 10:43 AM)PDub80 Wrote: The numbers were over 2013 & 2014 as I repeatedly stated. I took from the two most recent back to back years to try to give a larger sample size and show trend or consistency.

And how was the statement that I made wrong?

Dalton had 10 games in the regular season the last two years with a rating of 70 or lower - true

6 out of those 10 games came from two teams - true

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 10:44 AM)spazz70 Wrote: I did not quote anyone...I started reading the OP...He stated he used ESPN' Total QBR....Do not like the stat....I do not discount the running ability or the need of it for a facet of a QB in the NFL but to weigh it so heavily as ESPN does is what i disagree with....  All of these running QB gimmicks in the NFL fade away...the defenses are too strong and fast...first it was the wildcat....now it is the read option...look what happened to Kaep last year when they caught up to it...There is a difference between a Randall Cunningham and a Colin Kaepernick....Cunningham was a QB first....Kaep is a runner first...Does that make sense?  Dalton know when to run, They have even ran the read option but it is not a staple of the playbook like it is with Kaep, Wilson and others QBs in the league..Again, just my opinion

You read my OP wrong. I did NOT use ESPNs Total QBR. I said that ESPN was where I got my stats from. I used standard QBR for this. I also expressly stated that I did NOT use TQBR in another post in this thread.

And you DID quote him by accident.

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 10:41 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: More insults!! I gotta say more insults!!

Is that your way of saying that YOU are the one with absolutely nothing to refute my post? Instead of crying about me pointing our your bias, maybe try to refute it.

More crying!! I gotta cry more!!

(07-07-2015, 10:44 AM)spazz70 Wrote: I did not quote anyone...I started reading the OP...He stated he used ESPN' Total QBR....Do not like the stat....I do not discount the running ability or the need of it for a facet of a QB in the NFL but to weigh it so heavily as ESPN does is what i disagree with....  All of these running QB gimmicks in the NFL fade away...the defenses are too strong and fast...first it was the wildcat....now it is the read option...look what happened to Kaep last year when they caught up to it...There is a difference between a Randall Cunningham and a Colin Kaepernick....Cunningham was a QB first....Kaep is a runner first...Does that make sense?  Dalton know when to run, They have even ran the read option but it is not a staple of the playbook like it is with Kaep, Wilson and others QBs in the league..Again, just my opinion

You quoted one of my posts, just sayin'.

I could be wrong, but I think he is using passer rating but calling it QBR for whatever reason.

So your theory is something like this....NFL defenses were caught off guard by a new style of running QB, and then they figured it out...but only against SOME of the running QBs? When your QB is a guy that runs and passes, one of those shouldn't be discounted, no excuses, no explanation needed.

Should I say that the guy passing the ball shouldn't be heavily weighed because NFL defenses figured out that a QB is throwing the ball and have learned to stop some, but not all of them? That's a bit of an extreme comparison, but it would be very silly to do that, right?

[BengalChris]

OMG, these numbers don't mean anything for the future. It only tells us what he did in the past. We all know he can have some really good games and that he is more than capable of some real stinkers as well.

No one knows if Dalton will get his head out of his ass for a whole year or not. Is it possible? Yes. Will he? No idea and neither does anyone else.

He's really on a perform or be let go status anyways. No one is going to pay a guy $20M a year who can't bring home a playoff win, at least not for long.

The Bengals will continue to set the current NFL record for playoff futility until they can win in the playoffs. Thanks to Mike Brown.

If Dalton loses in the playoffs again this year then he'll be alone at the bottom with the worst NFL playoff record ever.

But, the team is trying to overcome its failings. This could be the year, you just don't know.

I remember back at the start of the 81 season, the writers saw that the Bengals had a talented team, but because Pittsburgh had been so strong and the rest of division was also good, writers proclaimed the Bengals not good enough to make the playoffs. Yet they went to the SB.

I like our secondary. I like our DL. I have concerns about our LBs. I like our RBs. I like our OL. I like our receivers, if they stay healthy. I'm so-so about our QB, so I keep hoping McCarron is good enough to make Dalton hear his footsteps. I'm so-so about Marvin Lewis. I don't like Mike Brown (there's the good, the bad and the ugly but too much ugly and bad has gone on with this owner).

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 10:52 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Is that your way of saying that YOU are the one with absolutely nothing to refute my post? Instead of crying about me pointing our your bias, maybe try to refute it.

More crying!! I gotta cry more!!

Refute what? You brought nothing but butthurt.

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 10:47 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: And how was the statement that I made wrong?

Dalton had 10 games in the regular season the last two years with a rating of 70 or lower - true

6 out of those 10 games came from two teams - true

I guess I misunderstood your point, which was misleading.

6 out of 10 games came from DIFFERENT OPPONENTS.

The other 4 games were spread between the Browns & Ravens. Quality of defense is not seeming indicative based on the numbers we're discussing. And, of course he is more likely to have bad games against opponents he plays 8 times vs the ones he plays once.

6+4 = 10

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 10:47 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: And how was the statement that I made wrong?

Dalton had 10 games in the regular season the last two years with a rating of 70 or lower - true

6 out of those 10 games came from two teams - true

Andy needs to play better against the division, in primetime, and in the playoffs.

I don't care if our playoff opponent is the 2015 All-Pro team. Andy needs to play better in the playoffs.

I don't care if our division is the '85 Bears, '72 Dolphins, and '00 Ravens. Andy needs to play better in the division.

[GreenCornBengal]

This is totally a side note to the OP.

How does Bill Bilicheck decide floors for other position groups?

I would love to see this kind of analysis on guys like Carlos Dunlap. Leon Hall and AJ Green.

It would just be interesting to see how many 'floor' games they have had and what not.

Call me curious haha.

and maybe one for coaches too!

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 10:54 AM)BengalChris Wrote: OMG, these numbers don't mean anything for the future. It only tells us what he did in the past. We all know he can have some really good games and that he is more than capable of some real stinkers as well.

No one knows if Dalton will get his head out of his ass for a whole year or not. Is it possible? Yes. Will he? No idea and neither does anyone else.

He's really on a perform or be let go status anyways. No one is going to pay a guy $20M a year who can't bring home a playoff win, at least not for long.

The Bengals will continue to set the current NFL record for play futility until they can win in the playoffs. Thanks to Mike Brown.

If Dalton loses in the playoffs again this year then he'll be alone at the bottom with the worst NFL playoff record ever.

But, the team is trying to overcome its failings. This could be the year, you just don't know.

I remember back at the start of the 81 season, the writers saw that the Bengals had a talented team, but because Pittsburgh had been so strong and the rest of division was also good, writers proclaimed the Bengals not good enough to make the playoffs. Yet they went to the SB.

I like our secondary. I like our DL. I have concerns about our LBs. I like our RBs. I like our OL. I like our receivers, if they stay healthy. I'm so-so about our QB, so I keep hoping McCarron is good enough to make Dalton hear his footsteps. I'm so-so about Marvin Lewis. I don't like Mike Brown (there's the good, the bad and the ugly with too much ugly and bad has gone on with this owner).

Again, the fans come in with the "You don't have a crystal ball" argument.

The past tends to be the best predictor of the future.

I guess, as fans, some hold out a religious like hope that people get a lot better after a history of not achieving such. You're right, though, we don't know. So, why talk about anything that hasn't happened yet? Why mark down appointments on a calendar? Or have a credit rating? Why base anything off of history or reliability at all?

The above line of thinking doesn't logically hold water. It's possible, just not probable based on a sizable sample of history, that the current play of the QB position on the Bengals won't get it done - unless changes are made either by the player or to the roster. Change the people or change the people as a wise old boss once told me.

Also, I get what you're saying about D-line, etc., but in the modern NFL era the QB position is King above all position groups. Period.

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 10:56 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Refute what? You brought nothing but butthurt.

1. Why do you refuse to look at who other QBs have faced before claiming they're "overrated"? Why do we only give Andy the benefit of the doubt of the extremely obscure and in depth statistical analysis?

2. What do you feel that Andy needs to improve on as a QB? No excuses, no disclaimers, I just want to know what you think his flaws are.

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 11:01 AM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: This is totally a side note to the OP.

How does Bill Bilicheck decide floors for other position groups?

I would love to see this kind of analysis on guys like Carlos Dunlap. Leon Hall and AJ Green.

It would just be interesting to see how many 'floor' games they have had and what not.

Call me curious haha.

and maybe one for coaches too!

I found Belichick's statement on floors and ceilings to be absolutely genius.

The closest thing I can think of to ranking these guys game by game is Pro Football Focus. It would take a lot of research to look at game influence, but would be an amazing study.

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 11:05 AM)djs7685 Wrote: 1. Why do you refuse to look at who other QBs have faced before claiming they're "overrated"? Why do we only give Andy the benefit of the doubt of the extremely obscure and in depth statistical analysis?

2. What do you feel that Andy needs to improve on as a QB? No excuses, no disclaimers, I just want to know what you think his flaws are.

1. I didn't make the original list, so I don't feel like looking at every other QB. and I don't see how it's "obscure" too notice that 6 of the 10 games came from 2 teams.

2. INTs. I have always said if Dalton could reduce his INTs, and keep his high production he would be elite.

[BengalChris]

(07-07-2015, 11:03 AM)PDub80 Wrote: Again, the fans come in with the "You don't have a crystal ball" argument.

The past tends to be the best predictor of the future.

I guess, as fans, some hold out a religious like hope that people get a lot better after a history of not achieving such. You're right, though, we don't know. So, why talk about anything that hasn't happened yet? Why mark down appointments on a calendar? Or have a credit rating? Why base anything off of history or reliability at all?

The above line of thinking doesn't logically hold water. It's possible, just not probable based on a sizable sample of history, that the current play of the QB position on the Bengals won't get it done - unless changes are made either by the player or to the roster. Change the people or change the people as a wise old boss once told me.

Also, I get what you're saying about D-line, etc., but in the modern NFL era the QB position is King above all position groups. Period.

I understand that and you are not wrong. I don't believe Dalton has lived up to what is needed by the team and frankly thought the team should have openly explored a trade with SD for Rivers.

But these kind of analysis don't really lead to anything when it comes to the Bengals. Marvin Lewis is too touchy feely to adapt such a system and Mike Brown wouldn't understand it from the first word.

These threads bring out the excuse makers and their illogic generally turns my stomach.

We are stuck with Dalton for another year and let's just hope that he can keep his head in the light instead of the darkness of his ass. That would be enough for this team to turn the corner.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 10:52 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Is that your way of saying that YOU are the one with absolutely nothing to refute my post? Instead of crying about me pointing our your bias, maybe try to refute it.

More crying!! I gotta cry more!!


You quoted one of my posts, just sayin'.

I could be wrong, but I think he is using passer rating but calling it QBR for whatever reason.

So your theory is something like this....NFL defenses were caught off guard by a new style of running QB, and then they figured it out...but only against SOME of the running QBs? When your QB is a guy that runs and passes, one of those shouldn't be discounted, no excuses, no explanation needed.

Should I say that the guy passing the ball shouldn't be heavily weighed because NFL defenses figured out that a QB is throwing the ball and have learned to stop some, but not all of them? That's a bit of an extreme comparison, but it would be very silly to do that, right?

So, my apologies to both of you...Here was my confusion...I did not go and confirm the statistics that he laid out

When you mention ESPN and QBR as it was quoted..."Game by game QBR as per ESPN for 2013 & 2014"


"QBR" is a made up statistical line from ESPN.... "Passer Rating" is the official stat of the NFL...Does that make sense?


No, my theory is that any gimmick type of QB play will eventually be stopped outside of passing the ball as a QB is required to do...I am 44 years old and have seen a lot of football in my life...If a running QB was the wave of the future or would have ever been a no brainer scheme over an extended period of time then QBs like Tommy Frazier, Kordell Stewart, Randle El, Tebow, Crouch, RG3, Troy Smith, Charlie Ward, Andre Ware and many, many others would have been superstars in the NFL....I almost bet that if you look at the introduction of the read option in the NFL it would coincide with the ESPN QBR in the timeline...


I am not arguing that running the ball is part of the game but to compare a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning to a Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson because they are better athletes makes no sense.....Let me put it this way...If several teams decided to start tossing the ball back to a WR or a RB 20 times a game and have them pass the ball would you think of this as a gimmick or a trend of the future?  Would you make a stat line for the WR or RB to enhance their "overall" rating?  

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 11:14 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: 1. I didn't make the original list, so I don't feel like looking at every other QB. and I don't see how it's "obscure" too notice that 6 of the 10 games came from 2 teams.

2. INTs. I have always said if Dalton could reduce his INTs, and keep his high production he would be elite.

The only thing that separates Andy Dalton from being an elite NFL QB is that he throws interceptions?

Fanboy confirmed.

Are you finally admitting that Russell Wilson is elite? I mean, he has matched Andy's production (which you conveniently ignored in the other thread) and he doesn't throw many INTs, so why isn't he considered elite in your eyes? Why is he "overrated" but Andy is so close to being elite? You're making yourself look like quite the hypocrite and fool here.

(07-07-2015, 11:19 AM)spazz70 Wrote: No, my theory is that any gimmick type of QB play will eventually be stopped outside of passing the ball as a QB is required to do...I am 44 years old and have seen a lot of football in my life...If a running QB was the wave of the future or would have ever been a no brainer scheme over an extended period of time then QBs like Tommy Frazier, Kordell Stewart, Randle El, Tebow, Crouch, RG3, Troy Smith, Charlie Ward, Andre Ware and many, many others would have been superstars in the NFL....I almost bet that if you look at the introduction of the read option in the NFL it would coincide with the ESPN QBR in the timeline...


I am not arguing that running the ball is part of the game but to compare a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning to a Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson because they are better athletes makes no sense.....Let me put it this way...If several teams decided to start tossing the ball back to a WR or a RB 20 times a game and have them pass the ball would you think of this as a gimmick or a trend of the future?  Would you make a stat line for the WR or RB to enhance their "overall" rating?  

You just named a bunch of guys that aren't very good at throwing the football. I never said that a guy that can ONLY run should be considered good, but if you have a guy that can run AND throw, you can't discount his ability to run.

Part of the reason that RW is mentioned right outside of the Brady, Manning, Rodgers discussion is because of his ability to both efficiently and effectively throw and run. Taking away either of those would be silly. That is my main point.

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 11:25 AM)djs7685 Wrote: The only thing that separates Andy Dalton from being an elite NFL QB is that he throws interceptions?

Fanboy confirmed.

Are you finally admitting that Russell Wilson is elite? I mean, he has matched Andy's production (which you conveniently ignored in the other thread) and he doesn't throw many INTs, so why isn't he considered elite in your eyes? Why is he "overrated" but Andy is so close to being elite? You're making yourself look like quite the hypocrite and fool here.


You just named a bunch of guys that aren't very good at throwing the football. I never said that a guy that can ONLY run should be considered good, but if you have a guy that can run AND throw, you can't discount his ability to run.

Part of the reason that RW is mentioned right outside of the Brady, Manning, Rodgers discussion is because of his ability to both efficiently and effectively throw and run. Taking away either of those would be silly. That is my main point.

Russell Wilsons best year - 4324 total yards 26 TDs 12 INTs/FUM

Andy Daltons best year - 4476 total yards 35 TDs 21 INTs/FUM

Wilson needs more TDs to be elite, and Dalton needs less INTs to be elite

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 11:33 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Russell Wilsons best year - 4324 total yards 26 TDs 12 INTs/FUM

Andy Daltons best year - 4476 total yards 35 TDs 21 INTs/FUM

Wilson needs more TDs to be elite, and Dalton needs less INTs to be elite

Your logic is whack and your stats are wrong.

Wilson has had 30 TDs in a year. Wilson's average production matches Andy's almost exactly while having MUCH better efficiency.

TDs/INTs/yards aren't the only thing that makes a QB elite or not. Sorry to burst your biased bubble.

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 11:40 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Your logic is whack and your stats are wrong.

Wilson has had 30 TDs in a year. Wilson's average production matches Andy's almost exactly while having MUCH better efficiency.

TDs/INTs/yards aren't the only thing that makes a QB elite or not. Sorry to burst your biased bubble.

Ok let's use the year he had 30 TDs

Wilson - 3607 total yards 30 TDs 12 INTs/FUM

Wilson needs more yards to be elite. Obvioulsy he is leaning on his run game.