Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2015, 12:08 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Are you a stats person or "winning is all that matters person"?  That is all this comes down to....  Terry Bradshaw is in the HOF...statistically he was horrible, regular season and postseason, but he has 4 SB titles...Ken Anderson was one of the best QBs, statistically, in about the same time frame but cannot even scratch the door to the HOF....  It is all perception....Wilson fell into a perfect storm...Is he elite because of that?

Bradshaw's stats in the post-season are hardly horrible, even if you don't adjust for the changes in the game over the last, ohhh...40 years or so.

Anywho, QBs seem pretty important when you take into account the fact that franchises that are lauded by the people (such as the Packers/Steelers/49ers) seem to go decades without winning it all between the HOF QBs that emerge. Seattle managed to win with a 3rd stringer rather than wait until they were 2-14 and throwing a "can't miss kid" into an amazingly bad situation and that just gives everyone an excuse to say "My favorite QB coulda done that!"

[GreenCornBengal]

(07-07-2015, 11:06 AM)PDub80 Wrote: I found Belichick's statement on floors and ceilings to be absolutely genius.

The closest thing I can think of to ranking these guys game by game is Pro Football Focus. It would take a lot of research to look at game influence, but would be an amazing study.

Can you post a link to Belichicks statements? or did I miss it somewhere?

Love looking into the emperor's mind.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 12:31 PM)djs7685 Wrote: He's still the same guy that's running the ball though. He doesn't transform into a different person when he runs or when he passes.

If you say "hey, who is a better QB, Wilson or Stafford?" I'll answer with Wilson every single time.

You don't get Wilson the QB without getting Wilson the RB too, right? He's still the same guy, and it's still silly to discount all of his abilities as a football player. It's not like he's lining up elsewhere to run. He's still playing QB, but he's running as a QB instead of passing as one. This could be a completely different conversation if he happened to be lining up at a different position consistently, but even then, he would still be the same guy doing it.

Go read my other post and respond to it....please...I just want to know your thoughts....  Sorry, I do not consider a QBs stats as a runner as heavily as some do when there are very few QBs that run outside of when they are forced to...Please go read it and respond...thanks

[WhoDeyWho]

(07-07-2015, 12:03 PM)PDub80 Wrote: This is much easier to read than my <> lists. Thank you!

Yep, I looked at the team's record as well in those games. They have managed to lose games where he had a good to great rating as well.

The point I wanted to illustrate is the frequency of and how low he can get compared to other QBs that maybe are considered as good or better. That, to me, is an indicator of talent and consistency based on Bill Belichick's "Floor" theory. Andy's problem is that he manages to find too many low point games and, to me, that tilts the odds of having a game that is below a winnable "bad". Especially when there are other variables... like the pressure from playoffs.

I want to go further into this and look at how Andy performs quarterly in both good and bad games. Having a QB who is capable of being that bad that frequently is NOT going to be a reliable way to go far into a post season. This is provable through stats from other QBs with one or two anomalies.

Seems to me Dalton needs to play better against AFCN rivals.  He seems to do relatively well versus everybody else.  

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 12:30 PM)spazz70 Wrote: As far as Wilson...I want to see what happens when Lynch retires/leaves...They lose a few FAs or have injuries and the defense is no longer a top 10...What does he do then?  To me, that will be a test of his mettle.  

Fun facts.

Marshawn Lynch never rushed for more than 4.4 YPC in his career until RW came around, since then he's done it 2 times within RW's 3 years in the league.
Marshawn Lynch never rushed for more than 1,204 yards in a season until RW came around, since then he's done it every single season.
Marshawn Lynch never had 300+ receiving yards and more than 1 TD in a season until RW came around, since then he's done it twice.
Seahawks QBs from 2008-2011 had passer ratings in the 70s each year, though these weren't the same exact teams, you can't just automatically get awarded with a high passer rating for being on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks with their "super talented team" didn't even make the playoffs the season before RW came around, since then they've seen some division titles, 6 playoff wins, 2 SB appearances, and heck, even a SB win.

Maybe Wilson is actually PART of the reason the Seahawks are so super talented? I dunno, call me crazy.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 12:34 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Bradshaw's stats in the post-season are hardly horrible, even if you don't adjust for the changes in the game over the last, ohhh...40 years or so.

Anywho, QBs seem pretty important when you take into account the fact that franchises that are lauded by the people (such as the Packers/Steelers/49ers) seem to go decades without winning it all between the HOF QBs that emerge.  Seattle managed to win with a 3rd stringer rather than wait until they were 2-14 and throwing a "can't miss kid" into an amazingly bad situation and that just gives everyone an excuse to say "My favorite QB coulda done that!"

My point was that he is no different than Wilson in this regard....Maybe I went a little over the top....Bradshaw was surrounded by a fierce running game and defense over a period of time....He did not have to do a ton to win..he just had to control the game and not lose it...Just as Wilson does

[GreenCornBengal]

(07-07-2015, 12:39 PM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: Seems to me Dalton needs to play better against AFCN rivals.  He seems to do relatively well versus everybody else.  

I thought Andy did pretty well against our division rivals last year. He had the one Cleveland debacle that was uuuuuugly, but that was the whole team really.

We beat Baltimore twice, and the first game he played a major role.

The first Pitt game we lost by big numbers, but Dalton and Green had a huge day. I can't remember a ton about that game but I remember Green tore Ike up for like 200 yards, it was a decent day.

Next Pitt game was super close and if AJ didn't fumble I feel we could have won that game (he played well enough to win).

The other browns game he didn't even need to be there, the Defense took over hah.


OVERALL last year he did ok against division rivals. It was a step in the right direction in that regard, as his history against pitt and balt is ugly.

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2015, 12:39 PM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: Seems to me Dalton needs to play better against AFCN rivals.  He seems to do relatively well versus everybody else.  

Call me a straight-up hater, but even with this glorious 4 year playoff run we've only won the division once and even then Baltimore and Pittsburgh didn't go 8-8 because we swept them or anything.  We play .500 ball in the division (post-2011) and we can't rely on a 9 or 10-win wild card berth every year.  Or can we?  It's worked so far, I guess.

In 2013 the Ravens and Steelers were both 8-8 but were 3-3 and 4-2 in the division, respectively. Not to deny the Bengals credit for their success against non-AFC North opponents, but the one time the Bengals won the division they got help from the Raiders, Titans, Vikings, Bills, and Bears; teams that were well below par as a whole. Our only division crown in the Dalton era was in no small part due to a lot of outside help. Again, the Bengals put themselves in a position to win with an 11-win season but our 3-3 division record just doesn't translate.

[BengalChris]

(07-07-2015, 12:30 PM)spazz70 Wrote: As far as Wilson...I want to see what happens when Lynch retires/leaves...They lose a few FAs or have injuries and the defense is no longer a top 10...What does he do then?  To me, that will be a test of his mettle.  

I'll tell you what will happen. The Seahawks will draft and find some more good players and they'll be just fine.

They grabbed a WR off the street last year who snagged 4 catches for 109 yards and a TD in the SB, while we grabbed Little, who lived up to his name.

I don't believe Wilson has reached elite status yet, he needs to keep doing it for longer. The upper crust QBs are still Brees, Brady, Manning and Rodgers. Luck will be the next guy in that tier from what I can see.

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 12:39 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Go read my other post and respond to it....please...I just want to know your thoughts....  Sorry, I do not consider a QBs stats as a runner as heavily as some do when there are very few QBs that run outside of when they are forced to...Please go read it and respond...thanks

You keep telling me to respond to it and I was pretty sure I hit every main point with my last post. I don't know what else you want me to say.

The QB running is the same guy as the QB passing, he's the same guy. Therefore, I consider rushing ability of a QB when I'm evaluating the position.

Here's the basic logic I use when doing so....

If a guy isn't a "running QB", he doesn't get negative points for not being one. No harm, no foul.
If a guy is a "running QB", and he's not good at it, he gets negatives for doing something that hurts the team.
If a guy is a "running QB", and he's GOOD at it, he gets positive points for bringing another great quality to his team.

If that doesn't explain my opinion on this, I don't really know what will.

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 12:31 PM)djs7685 Wrote: He's still the same guy that's running the ball though. He doesn't transform into a different person when he runs or when he passes.

If you say "hey, who is a better QB, Wilson or Stafford?" I'll answer with Wilson every single time.

You don't get Wilson the QB without getting Wilson the RB too, right? He's still the same guy, and it's still silly to discount all of his abilities as a football player. It's not like he's lining up elsewhere to run. He's still playing QB, but he's running as a QB instead of passing as one. This could be a completely different conversation if he happened to be lining up at a different position consistently, but even then, he would still be the same guy doing it.


I don't know if Wilson is exactly at the "elite" level, but he's surely in the "great" level. Like I said earlier, let's throw semantics out the window for a second, he's in the Roethlisberger, Rivers, Romo group of QBs. Outside of Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Brady, he's somewhere between the next guy and the 10th best guy in the league without question. You really can't be a bright guy and believe otherwise. Who cares about how good his team is? How the **** does that mean HE can't be good too? Is this real life?

It has to do with the fact that I just assumed you were a little kid or a teenager because of your TD/INT/yards obsession, but now you confirmed for me that you're just dumb, not young. Thanks! I'm no old timer myself, but I've noticed over the years that most people that obsess over only 2 or 3 stats are usually extremely casual fans or very young kids that don't know much better.

I noticed that you ignored my points about Andy. Are you ready to discount Andy's 2013 season or not? He had a great team around him that year, are you okay with saying that Andy isn't good because of it? Are you ready to discredit Andy in 2015 if he plays well? It's basically a general consensus that this team is very talented this season, so no matter what, Andy can't have a good year in your opinion because of that. Unless you're just a big hypocrite, which you are, so nevermind.

Like I said I'm not trying to act like Dalton is an elite QB, but you are trying to with Wilson. Roethlisberger, and Rivers are both elite QBs, and Romo is on the edge. Wilson is no where close to those guys. When Wilson can produce elite numbers consistently while he's not being spoon fed stats by his RB, and the best team in the league then I will call him elite or top tier. Dalton hasn't had even remotely close to the talent Wilson has had, and if Dalton can show that he can produce at an elite level consistently then that's the day I can argue that he's an elite QB.

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 12:48 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Like I said I'm not trying to act like Dalton is an elite QB, but you are trying to with Wilson. Roethlisberger, and Rivers are both elite QBs, and Romo is on the edge. Wilson is no where close to those guys. When Wilson can produce elite numbers consistently while he's not being spoon fed stats by his RB, and the best team in the league then I will call him elite or top tier. Dalton hasn't had even remotely close to the talent Wilson has had, and if Dalton can show that he can produce at an elite level consistently then that's the day I can argue that he's an elite QB.

What if Andy only produces at a high level when he's surrounding with a top notch supporting cast?

Does that mean that Andy can't be considered good? That's exactly what you're doing to Wilson now.

You're being a complete knob by not realizing that Wilson is PART of the great team, and not just a random bystander while everyone around him does the work. RW is absolutely, 100%, positively a part of that "best team in the league" that you keep referring to. I don't understand why the most important position gets singled out on other teams, but for the Seahawks, you ignore him like he's some random scrub on the bench.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 12:45 PM)djs7685 Wrote: You keep telling me to respond to it and I was pretty sure I hit every main point with my last post. I don't know what else you want me to say.

The QB running is the same guy as the QB passing, he's the same guy. Therefore, I consider rushing ability of a QB when I'm evaluating the position.

Here's the basic logic I use when doing so....

If a guy isn't a "running QB", he doesn't get negative points for not being one. No harm, no foul.
If a guy is a "running QB", and he's not good at it, he gets negatives for doing something that hurts the team.
If a guy is a "running QB", and he's GOOD at it, he gets positive points for bringing another great quality to his team.

If that doesn't explain my opinion on this, I don't really know what will.

So, you agree with this statement from the post I tried to get you to read.....

If AJ Green has 1400 yards and 10 TDs receiving and Sanu has 800 yards receiving and 4 TDs and 600 yards passing and  6 TDs then who had the better year as a "Wide Receiver"??   Would Sanu be considered an "elite" WR because he had those throwing statistics?  He had as much production?

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2015, 12:43 PM)spazz70 Wrote: My point was that he is no different than Wilson in this regard....Maybe I went a little over the top....Bradshaw was surrounded by a fierce running game and defense over a period of time....He did not have to do a ton to win..he just had to control the game and not lose it...Just as Wilson does

'cept Bradshaw was drafted by the worst team in the league and Wilson wasn't.  Plus Bradshaw put up QB ratings well over 100 in each of the 4 Super Bowls he was in.  I mean, a team has to be stacked to go 4-0 in the Super Bowl in 6 years, granted, but Terry Hanratty (who is actually the uncle of one of my schoolyard chums so don't tell him I said this) wasn't winning 4 rings with that team!

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2015, 12:42 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Fun facts.

Marshawn Lynch never rushed for more than 4.4 YPC in his career until RW came around, since then he's done it 2 times within RW's 3 years in the league.
Marshawn Lynch never rushed for more than 1,204 yards in a season until RW came around, since then he's done it every single season.
Marshawn Lynch never had 300+ receiving yards and more than 1 TD in a season until RW came around, since then he's done it twice.
Seahawks QBs from 2008-2011 had passer ratings in the 70s each year, though these weren't the same exact teams, you can't just automatically get awarded with a high passer rating for being on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks with their "super talented team" didn't even make the playoffs the season before RW came around, since then they've seen some division titles, 6 playoff wins, 2 SB appearances, and heck, even a SB win.

Maybe Wilson is actually PART of the reason the Seahawks are so super talented? I dunno, call me crazy.

Pshaw!  They we JUST about to turn the corner with Turdvarious Jackson and/or Matt Flynn before Wilson showed up and "fell into" a can't-lose scenario!

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 12:51 PM)djs7685 Wrote: What if Andy only produces at a high level when he's surrounding with a top notch supporting cast?

Does that mean that Andy can't be considered good? That's exactly what you're doing to Wilson now.

You're being a complete knob by not realizing that Wilson is PART of the great team, and not just a random bystander while everyone around him does the work. RW is absolutely, 100%, positively a part of that "best team in the league" that you keep referring to. I don't understand why the most important position gets singled out on other teams, but for the Seahawks, you ignore him like he's some random scrub on the bench.

I guess you can't understand just how much talent Wilson has had around him. If Wilson was drafted as the Bengals QB in 2011 he wouldn't even have anywhere close to the stats he has now.

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2015, 12:59 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: I guess you can't understand just how much talent Wilson has had around him. If Wilson was drafted as the Bengals QB in 2011 he wouldn't even have anywhere close to the stats he has now.

If Palmer had the defense Andy did from 2011-2013 and AJ Green he would have blah blah blah blah blah.  If people really want to prop up Dalton by comparing him to other QBs I just happen to think Bradshaw and Wilson are bad choices.

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 12:52 PM)spazz70 Wrote: So, you agree with this statement from the post I tried to get you to read.....

If AJ Green has 1400 yards and 10 TDs receiving and Sanu has 800 yards receiving and 4 TDs and 600 yards passing and  6 TDs then who had the better year as a "Wide Receiver"??   Would Sanu be considered an "elite" WR because he had those throwing statistics?  He had as much production?

That's a pretty big difference than a QB running the ball, isn't it?

QBs have been compiling rushing stats on a regular basis for how many years now?

If the trend does start, and there are a few WRs that regularly add a new element to their team's game that contributes in a very positive manner, then yes, I'll consider them better WRs because of that.

I won't discredit a guy like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady for not being a running QB, but I will give guys like Cam Newton and Russell Wilson a positive bump for adding an extra element that they're very good at to their game. If you find that to be ridiculous or unfair, that's on you and you may want to re-evaluate the way football is played in some cities in 2015.

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 12:56 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Pshaw!  They we JUST about to turn the corner with Turdvarious Jackson and/or Matt Flynn before Wilson showed up and "fell into" a can't-lose scenario!

Yeah, because they didn't pick up most of their talent in 2010, and 2011 right? Lynch, Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Golden Tate, and Wagner had nothing to do with it right?

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 01:06 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Yeah, because they didn't pick up most of their talent in 2010, and 2011 right? Lynch, Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Golden Tate, and Wagner had nothing to do with it right?

They absolutely did have something to do with it.

Want to take a guess on who else had something to do with it too?