Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory

[Mike M (the other one)]

(07-07-2015, 09:55 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: This list is misleading too, because Dalton has had only 10 games in the regular season where he has had 70 or worse passer rating. On top of that 6 out of those 10 come from only 2 teams. Obviously pointing out that hes not as inconsistent than what people think. It just points out he is consistently facing good defenses.

Over a 2 year span, I think just about every QB out there has faced a few good defenses. If you really want to go this route, then you need to start breaking down how xxx QB did vs xxx defense and we'll look at it from there. Otherwise you're rebuttal here is quite weak.

[Shake n Blake]

(07-07-2015, 11:53 AM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: Here is a list of the ratings for all of Daltons games.  Under 70 has been highlighted.

Bengals are 9-12 in those games.  I only count 10 such games in the last two seasons:

What stands out to me is that 12 out of 21 (57%) of these bad games came in the AFCN. As far as consistency, Andy is pretty much on par with other QB's of his caliber. The best comparison would be Joe Flacco, who is also average and deals with the same division:

Games with <70 passer rating:

Joe Flacco- 33 of 112 (29.5%)
Andy Dalton- 21 of 64 (32.8%)

The only real difference is that Dalton has struggled with both the Browns and Ravens lately, whereas Flacco has only consistently struggled with the Bengals and some non-division teams. I was thinking that Dalton would have more "awful" games (sub 60 passer rating), but I was surprised to find out that Flacco is actually worse in this category:

Games with <60 passer rating:

Joe Flacco- 18 of 112 (16.1%)
Andy Dalton- 9 of 64 (14.1%)

In summary, Dalton's consistency (or lack thereof) isn't that big a deal for me. In some ways I think it's overblown. If Dalton would've won a playoff game by now, I think less people would be hyper-analyzing every facet of his game. For me, the question is whether or not any QB can win with the coaches and FO we have in place. 

It feels like Dalton is experiencing the same themes that Palmer did. They started off showing a lot of promise and winning a lot of games, but it never progressed to the next level and both struggled in big games. So I think it's fair to question whether or not we may have a bigger problem here than just the QB.

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2015, 01:10 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: So I think it's fair to question whether or not we may have a bigger problem here than just the QB.

Hard to tell...better give Marvin another decade and another decent QB just to be sure.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 01:04 PM)djs7685 Wrote: That's a pretty big difference than a QB running the ball, isn't it?

QBs have been compiling rushing stats on a regular basis for how many years now?

If the trend does start, and there are a few WRs that regularly add a new element to their team's game that contributes in a very positive manner, then yes, I'll consider them better WRs because of that.

I won't discredit a guy like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady for not being a running QB, but I will give guys like Cam Newton and Russell Wilson a positive bump for adding an extra element that they're very good at to their game. If you find that to be ridiculous or unfair, that's on you and you may want to re-evaluate the way football is played in some cities in 2015.

No, it is not a big difference if a few teams are doing it....as of last year only three or four teams ran the read option as basically their base offense..It is an anomaly just like Wilson is to an extent....  QBs have not been accumulating large rushing stats on a regular basis for years...You have your few exceptions over the years.. Vick, Cunningham...they were few others, Young, Elway, McNabb, mainly because most of them accumulated those yards because they played for so many years...A running QB is not a common thing in the NFL and has not been in the modern passing era

Talk to me in 2 or 3 years...guaranteed the days of the read option will be long gone and so will Russell Wilson's status as a borderline "elite"player

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2015, 01:20 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Talk to me in 2 or 3 years...guaranteed the days of the read option will be long gone and so will Russell Wilson's status as a borderline "elite"player

Yeah, but unless Dalton becomes "borderline elite" in those 2-3 years the comparison of the two still doesn't hold water.  I think we should just go back to comparing Dalton to Locker, Ponder, and Gabbert...that feels better!

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-07-2015, 12:48 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Like I said I'm not trying to act like Dalton is an elite QB, but you are trying to with Wilson. Roethlisberger, and Rivers are both elite QBs, and Romo is on the edge. 1.) Wilson is no where close to those guys. When Wilson can produce elite numbers consistently while he's not being spoon fed stats by his RB, and the best team in the league then I will call him elite or top tier. 2.) Dalton hasn't had even remotely close to the talent Wilson has had, and 3.) if Dalton can show that he can produce at an elite level consistently then that's the day I can argue that he's an elite QB.

I'm not really sure where to start with this, but here it goes:

1.) Russell Wilson posted a 95 QB rating this season.  He's posted 3 straight passing seasons of 95 or better, with two of them being over 100. 

Oh, and he just rushed for over 800 yards. (read that again)  He rushed for over 300 yards more than Cam Newton.  He averaged over SEVEN YARDS a carry.  He scored 6 times on the ground.  Like or not, being a legitimate threat in the run game has a some value for a QB.  It may not be the most important stat in determining their worth, but it can't be completely ignored either.

Lastly, he lead his team to back to back Superbowls.  He already has a ring.  I don't know how many times I hear about Andy's wins.  Not the Bengals, Andy's.  So it's only fair to value Wilson's as well, no?  He's won 11, 13, and 12 games.  He's advanced in the postseason every single year.  He has a 6-2 postseason record with TWO SUPERBOWL APPEARANCES.

I'm not sure what else you want.  26 years old, already has a ring, coming off back to back Superbowls, has a career QB rating that is over 98 (higher than Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees), and lead the league in rushing yards.  Those are a lot of pretty damn good measurables. 

Do I think he's great? No.  I think we all realize he has a smaller sample size and is asked to less than some of his peers in regards to reliance of the passing game.  But do I think he's far from the Rapist, Rivers, and Romo?  No, not at all.  He definitely belongs in the top 10 QB's, and he's probably not far from pushing top 5 consideration in the near future.  And I'm sorry, but anyone who can't admit these things either has an agenda or is simply misinformed.

2.) Based on what?  Dear Lord, how much are you valuing Lynch?  Dalton's had a far superior WR corp, a better Tight End, and they share comparable OL's.  Marshawn Lynch is a good player, no doubt.  I'm just not sure he's anywhere near the level to make your statement true.  If you factor in everything on that side of the ball then I don't Dalton is lacking in weapons when compared to Wilson.

3.) And the day I bench 500 pounds will be the day I can say I benched 500 pounds.  I'm not really sure what point you were trying to make here.

[Shake n Blake]

(07-07-2015, 01:19 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Hard to tell...better give Marvin another decade and another decent QB just to be sure.

Reboot 2.0? 

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 01:20 PM)spazz70 Wrote: No, it is not a big difference if a few teams are doing it....as of last year only three or four teams ran the read option as basically their base offense..It is an anomaly just like Wilson is to an extent....  QBs have not been accumulating large rushing stats on a regular basis for years...You have your few exceptions over the years.. Vick, Cunningham...they were few others, Young, Elway, McNabb, mainly because most of them accumulated those yards because they played for so many years...A running QB is not a common thing in the NFL and has not been in the modern passing era

Talk to me in 2 or 3 years...guaranteed the days of the read option will be long gone and so will Russell Wilson's status as a borderline "elite"player

Will that take away his Super Bowl ring and his past accomplishments?

As of right now, today, Wilson is borderline elite. 49ers fans and some desperate Bengals fans may disagree, but not many others will.

I feel like you're one of the older guys that don't like to give credit where it's due when "new" things happen in the league. Trust me, I love the classic pocker passer type of QB just as much as the next guy, but it's absurd to not give guys like Newton and Wilson the credit for what they do on the ground. Wilson isn't a RB, he's a QB. He's a good QB because he can effectively pass AND run. That doesn't mean he should be judged in 2 different positions.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-07-2015, 01:24 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Reboot 2.0? 

Everyone knows you can't really start judging Marvin until 2017.  I mean, think about Mike Brown and the 90's!!!  The 90's!!!!!!!!  That's a 20 year rebuilding job, minimum. 

Anytime anyone says Marvin needs to fired I'm reminded of this:

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2015, 01:32 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Everyone knows you can't really start judging Marvin until 2017.  I mean, think about Mike Brown and the 90's!!!  The 90's!!!!!!!!  That's a 20 year rebuilding job, minimum. 

Anytime anyone says Marvin needs to fired I'm reminded of this:

1990 reminds me of this:


I bet I was playing that right before the last playoff game we won came on. Also, I have no idea why that guy would have a Black Mage in the front rank.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 01:25 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Will that take away his Super Bowl ring and his past accomplishments?

As of right now, today, Wilson is borderline elite. 49ers fans and some desperate Bengals fans may disagree, but not many others will.

I feel like you're one of the older guys that don't like to give credit where it's due when "new" things happen in the league. Trust me, I love the classic pocker passer type of QB just as much as the next guy, but it's absurd to not give guys like Newton and Wilson the credit for what they do on the ground. Wilson isn't a RB, he's a QB. He's a good QB because he can effectively pass AND run. That doesn't mean he should be judged in 2 different positions.

Kaepernick was borderline "elite" 2 seasons ago with a SB appearance and an NFC championship game...Things change...It is nothing to due with "new"...It is gimmicks...It will not last in the NFL...the athletes and coaches are too good...

[Hoofhearted]

(07-07-2015, 01:19 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Hard to tell...better give Marvin another decade and another decent QB just to be sure.

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 01:43 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Kaepernick was borderline "elite" 2 seasons ago with a SB appearance and an NFC championship game...Things change...It is nothing to due with "new"...It is gimmicks...It will not last in the NFL...the athletes and coaches are too good...

I could sit here and argue that X or Y isn't going to be good in a few years too, but until it actually happens, how about we judge all players based on reality and not your random future predictions?

[Wes Mantooth]

I've never really understood the need for some to tear down other QB's. I mean, I'm sorry, it seems some go out of their way to diminish the accomplishments of other quarterbacks. Coincidentally, many of these people happen to be Andy's biggest supporters, and the QB's in question tend be his peers, both in age, and in that they're in that big group of QB's that fall outside the top 5.

Could it be that some feel the need to diminish these accomplishments to lift up the perception of our QB? Perhaps they do it to convince themselves? Because I don't really see any reason to debate the idea that Russel Wilson is a good QB, unless you're doing it with some agenda that is Andy driven. Why? Because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Many of these same people love to throw out Andy's win totals when debating his worth. Yet this category, when evaluating a player who plays the same position, seems to be thrown out the window. Not only does Russell Wilson win, he wins more. Not only does he win the regular season, he wins in the postseason. For evidence looking no further than that big Superbowl ring on his finger. So if you truly value wins, and the ability of a QB to lead a team, then you need to apply this value across the board. It's simply not fair to pick and choose stats and apply a different criteria to fit your narrative. If Andy's W/L numbers matter then so do Wilson's. Period.

I also have to ask why we don't see the devaluing and debate of other positions. How many times do we see people debating Dez Bryant's situation or what Julio Jones has to work with? A.) Almost never. I see these same players used as examples of why other QB's have it easier. Yet I never see people elevating AJ, while trying to diminish Bryant by bringing up the fact that Romo is better than Dalton, that Witten is better than Gresham, that they have a better running game, etc. Basically, that Bryant has more around him to boost his numbers.

In fact, I actually see people go out of their way to diminish AJ's accomplishments. I've seen numerous people try to make the argument that AJ isn't elite. I've seen people try to do everything they can to say that Julio Jones has been better, despite evidence to the contrary. Basically the exact opposite of Dalton.

QB position - tear others down. WR position - Build others up.

Now why would that be? Wouldn't logic dictate that if there was a Bengals or homers bias that it would be a applied to other positions. That you would see a bias with not only our QB but our WR? But you don't. It's because it's an Andy bias. Tearing down our own WR or building up other WR's is done to make Andy look better, or to devalue the weaponry he has. Making AJ look worse means Andy has less to work with.

It's all pretty obvious. Those who can't admit that Russell Wilson is both, much better than Andy, and belonging in the 5-10 range of QB's have an agenda. An Andy agenda. Look at their post history, it's all right there.

I think they try to convince themselves more than anyone. The QB spot is so important and is the face of the team. I think by tearing down others they're trying to convince themselves that Andy is somehow better than he is. I've never seen more excuses and uneven analysis surrounding a player than I have with Andy. And the fact we're now debating if Russell Wilson deserves the credit and labels often applied to him, after back to back Superbowls, a ring, a 98 career QB rating, and leading the NFL in rushing, only reinforces this further.

No one can be so stupid as to claim Wilson belongs outside the top 10 in current QB value. Those that do have a strange need to tear down Andy's peers. End of story...

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-07-2015, 02:30 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I've never really understood the need for some to tear down other QB's.  I mean, I'm sorry, it seems some go out of their way to diminish the accomplishments of other quarterbacks.  Coincidentally, many of these people happen to be Andy's biggest supporters, and the QB's in question tend be his peers, both in age, and in that they're in that big group of QB's that fall outside the top 5.

Could it be that some feel the need to diminish these accomplishments to lift up the perception of our QB?  Perhaps they do it to convince themselves?  Because I don't really see any reason to debate the idea that Russel Wilson is a good QB, unless you're doing it with some agenda that is Andy driven.  Why?  Because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Many of these same people love to throw out Andy's win totals when debating his worth.  Yet this category, when evaluating a player who plays the same position, seems to be thrown out the window.  Not only does Russell Wilson win, he wins more.  Not only does he win the regular season, he wins in the postseason.  For evidence looking no further than that big Superbowl ring on his finger.  So if you truly value wins, and the ability of a QB to lead a team, then you need to apply this value across the board.  It's simply not fair to pick and choose stats and apply a different criteria to fit your narrative.  If Andy's W/L numbers matter then so do Wilson's.  Period.

You sir obviously don't know how the game is played here. Wins are important when it's your QB, insignificant when it's other QB's on "great teams".

I can send you a copy of the Bengalsboard fair play rules if you don't have one.

[J24]

Here is the problem with Andy Dalton he is not an elite QB but he has been given an elite QB workload. We need to be a team that focuses on running the ball and playing defense with a little bit of passing mixed in. Not throw the ball every down and run the ball every once in a while. That's one the main reasons why I think this team can win a super bowl is because Hue has a better understanding of that then Jay ever did.  If you look at Russell Wilson he has never been asked to carry the load offensively with his arm. For example the most pass attempts he has ever thrown in an NFL game was 37.  Andy on the other hand has had 14 games in witch he has thrown over 40 attempts. In the playoffs Russell Wilson most attempts in a game was 36 and he averages 25 throws per a playoff game. Andy most attempts in a playoff game was 51 and he averages 40 attempts per a playoff game.

[Shake n Blake]

(07-07-2015, 01:39 PM)Nately120 Wrote: 1990 reminds me of this:


I bet I was playing that right before the last playoff game we won came on.  Also, I have no idea why that guy would have a Black Mage in the front rank.

Everyone knows that a mage takes more damage in the front row and they're already weak against physical attacks as it is. 

Btw, I guess if Marv gets fired, I'll be whipping out this bad boy again:

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 03:10 PM)J24 Wrote: Here is the problem with Andy Dalton he is not an elite QB but he has been given an elite QB workload. We need to be a team that focuses on running the ball and playing defense with a little bit of passing mixed in. Not throw the ball every down and run the ball every once in a while. That's one the main reasons why I think this team can win a super bowl is because Hue has a better understanding of that then Jay ever did.  If you look at Russell Wilson he has never been asked to carry the load offensively with his arm. For example the most pass attempts he has ever thrown in an NFL game was 37.  Andy on the other hand has had 14 games in witch he has thrown over 40 attempts. In the playoffs Russell Wilson most attempts in a game was 36 and he averages 25 throws per a playoff game. Andy most attempts in a playoff game was 51 and he averages 40 attempts per a playoff game.

1. Andy was at his best under Jay Gruden. The offense as a whole has performed at a higher level under Gruden than Hue. You say this "Hue understands more" from thread to thread yet you ignore when someone brings up that Gruden has proven much more than Hue has at this point.

2. "Wilson hasn't been asked to carry the load" is a myth. You added in the part "with his arm", but what does it matter if it's with his arm or his legs? The fact is, Wilson has averaged 32.5 touches per game (simply using pass attempts + rush attempts for these examples) over his NFL career, which is hardly the coaching staff never asking him to do the heavy lifting for his team. For reference, Andy averages around 36.18 touches per game, less than 4 more than RW. A guy like Andrew Luck touches the ball a lot, and his number is right around 41.7 touches per game.

Using these 3 examples, Andy is somewhere around average compared to other NFL QBs, Luck is a little on the high side, and RW is a little on the low side. Now, if you want to compare Luck and RW, it may look a bit off since there's a 9.2 touch per game difference, but most NFL QBs are going to be comparable in this regard, and a small handful of touches per game one way or the other isn't the extreme difference that many people around here want to make it seem. I feel like people just want stuff to use as excuses so they can ***** about different things.

"Andy is asked to do so much!" and "So and so isn't asked to do anything offensively!" are just bullshit myths that people create to spin the stats in their favor. In reality, EVERY NFL QB is asked to do a lot. Hell, even the year that Peterson rushed for 2,100 yards, Christian Ponder averaged around 33 touches per game. Crazy, huh? He also ended a year with an 81 passer rating. But wait, I thought having the best RB in the league guaranteed the QB an easy time? I guess that puts that myth to rest too!

It's the same as the people that claim that Andy releasing the ball a slight fraction of a second less than somebody else is what made our offensive line give up 20 less sacks and 50 less hurries than the other team

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-07-2015, 03:10 PM)J24 Wrote: Here is the problem with Andy Dalton he is not an elite QB but he has been given an elite QB workload.

What a bunch of bologna.  Do you guys seriously believe some of this stuff?  I have to imagine you just kind of make it up as you go. 

First, define "elite workload".  I'm not sure what that is, but I'll take a stab on breaking down what would constitute an "elite" workload.

Number has to be having to carry a team.  An elite workload would have to start with having to put the team on your back, and more than likely do so with the detriment of your defense.

Well, here's the defensive rankings for the teams Andy been paired with:  7th, 6th, 3rd, 22nd.

Hmm, Andy sure has enjoyed some pretty good defenses.  Nothing about these numbers seems to suggest that it takes a Herculian effort to win when paired with these defensive counterpart.

Maybe by "elite workload" you simply mean putting up elite stats?  Sure, that's it, right?  Andy has been elite, therefore he has an elite workload.  But, wait.  He finished 25th in passer rating this year.  20th, 13th, 15 in 2011, 2012 and 2013.So he hasn't played elite either.  Swing and a miss.

Ok, well maybe we're just talking volume.  He has to throw a ton.  They ask him to do more.  Umm...He finished 14th in pass attempts this season.

So just so we're clear, he's been given top 7 defenses in 3 of his 4 years.  He's never posted a QB rating anywhere near elite and he ranks average in attempts.

Why is he given an elite workload again?  Could it be he is asked to a pretty typical amount, and that we can all smell the bs a mile away?  These excuses get more and more desperate by the thread.  Elite workload?  Give me a break...

[*Nately120*]

Bengal's NFL rank for passing attempts

Dalton Era
2014 - 25th
2013 -8th
2012 - 17th
2011- 20th
Median = 18.5
Average = 17.5

Other Guy Era
2010 - 13th
2009 - 26th
2008 - 30th (omitted, due to Fitzmagic effect)
2007 - 7th
2006 - 6th
2005 - 5th
2004 - 17th
Median = 6.5
Average = 12.33

If more attempts means an "elite workload" then it seems this franchise had higher expectations of that last guy that played here.