A few questions to ponder

[RoyleRedlegs]

(07-07-2015, 08:23 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Uhhh....sort of. I think you're (intentionally) misleading people with these statistics.

If you take out the Saints game, his rating drops all the way down to around 83.5 for the last 6 games.

Other than completing a high percentage of his passes (IMO had a lot to do with playcalling if you consider his <7 YPA in all but 1 of the last 6 games), Andy looked off by the end of the year, injuries to other players or not. It's extremely misleading to claim that he was impressive to end the 2014 season, the only way you can even say that with a straight face is to include the Saints game and pretend the other games don't matter too much.

Right. The game was very "dumbed" down by that point. 

The eye test tells you more in this case...the confidence...the attitude...

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 02:05 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: Right. The game was very "dumbed" down by that point. 

The eye test tells you more in this case...the confidence...the attitude...

His numbers were even down if you don't include the Saints game that jacks the passer rating up so high.

Andy looked like a much better QB in the first 5 games than in any other stretch during the 2014 season. Numbers and eyeballs should both back that up. Other than a random good game sporadically mixed in, he looked worse later in the year than earlier.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-07-2015, 02:10 PM)djs7685 Wrote: His numbers were even down if you don't include the Saints game that jacks the passer rating up so high.

Andy looked like a much better QB in the first 5 games than in any other stretch during the 2014 season. Numbers and eyeballs should both back that up. Other than a random good game sporadically mixed in, he looked worse later in the year than earlier.

Right there were many drives, games even in the 2nd half of last season where he had the 1,000 yard stare going. You could see the confidence just wasn't there way more often than not !

One can make stats do whatever they want. I don't need stats to know the 2nd half of last season put in by one A. Dalton wasn't very good.

[fredtoast]

(07-07-2015, 08:23 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Uhhh....sort of. I think you're (intentionally) misleading people with these statistics.

If you take out the Saints game, his rating drops all the way down to around 83.5 for the last 6 games.

Other than completing a high percentage of his passes (IMO had a lot to do with playcalling if you consider his <7 YPA in all but 1 of the last 6 games), Andy looked off by the end of the year, injuries to other players or not. It's extremely misleading to claim that he was impressive to end the 2014 season, the only way you can even say that with a straight face is to include the Saints game and pretend the other games don't matter too much.

You are not taking the strength of opponents into account.

His 98.7 rating against the Ravens looks better than his 93.1 rating against the Broncos until you see that Dalton's passer rating against the Ravens was only 8.1 points higher than what that defense allowed on average (90.6), but his rating against the Broncos was 10.7 points higher than what the Broncos defense allowed (82.4).

The best pass defense (passer rating) he faced over the first 5 games was the #10 Patriots, and the #15 Falcons were the only other one that was even in the top half of the league.  Over his last 7 games he faced three defenses better than the Pats including the #1 pass defense in the league (#1 Cle, #6 Hou, #8 Den).

Dalton's rating over the first 5 games (98.4) was 7.2 points higher than his rating over the last 7 games (91.2), but the defenses he faced over the first 5 games were weaker.  So he might have played a little better, but the claim that he "fell apart" at the end of the year just is not true.

And the "let's pretend one game did not happen" is the silliest argument I have ever heard.  He lit up the Saints on the road.  You have to give him credit for that.

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 06:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You are not taking the strength of opponents into account.

His 98.7 rating against the Ravens looks better than his 93.1 rating against the Broncos until you see that Dalton's passer rating against the Ravens was only 8.1 points higher than what that defense allowed on average (90.6), but his rating against the Broncos was 10.7 points higher than what the Broncos defense allowed (82.4).

The best pass defense (passer rating) he faced over the first 5 games was the #10 Patriots, and the #15 Falcons were the only other one that was even in the top half of the league.  Over his last 7 games he faced three defenses better than the Pats including the #1 pass defense in the league (#1 Cle, #6 Hou, #8 Den).

Dalton's rating over the first 5 games (98.4) was 7.2 points higher than his rating over the last 7 games (91.2), but the defenses he faced over the first 5 games were weaker.  So he might have played a little better, but the claim that he "fell apart" at the end of the year just is not true.

And the "let's pretend one game did not happen" is the silliest argument I have ever heard.  He lit up the Saints on the road.  You have to give him credit for that.

1. Please let me know when we started using passer rating against as the official statistic of pass defense. You're the first person I've seen using this, I wonder why? There is a specific reason the passer rating formula was created for a QB. While it works for defensive players and it can be fun to look at, it's not always telling the entire story. Neither are yards of course, but last time I checked we were using that as the metric until you decided you wanted to show your stats to make your boy Zampese look good.

2. I never said the Saints game didn't happen, I've given the guy plenty of credit for it and have even used that game as an example of Andy's strengths in other threads. The fact that you went back exactly 7 games is very telling though. It's typical Fred bullshit. Go back 6 and see what his rating is, go back 8 and see what his rating is. You picked 7 so the Saints game would be there and the Browns mess wouldn't be included.

The passer rating I showed from the last 6 games simply proves the Saints game was an anomaly of the end of the year games. There's no other game you can take out that causes the passer rating to jump like it does there. Let's not continue to act like we don't all see through your constant spin.

Anyone with eyes can see that Andy looked worse and worse as the year went on with the exception of a couple games in the last 10 or so. Do you have eyeballs? Can we talk about things without having to spin stats for a minute?

The playcalling was altered greatly by seasons end for Andy. Don't believe me? Look at his YPA for those games. Watch the games, watch Andy step into the pocket like a great QB like we don't usually see at the beginning of the year, then watch him look like he doesn't even know what a pocket is.

Honestly, I'm just done with this because you just pick certain threads and HAVE to be the contrarian. You refuse to admit when you're wrong and called out for this stuff (as I proved by the huge leap in rating when the Saints game is taken out compared to other games being taken out). He played well for 5 games, the wheels fell off, he looked good in a game or two after that, but generally he looked like crap for the rest of the year. Fredtoast saying otherwise doesn't change it, all of us with functioning eyes saw it without needing to manipulate all of the stats in the world to create an imaginary point.

[fredtoast]

(07-08-2015, 07:24 AM)djs7685 Wrote: 1. Please let me know when we started using passer rating against as the official statistic of pass defense. You're the first person I've seen using this, I wonder why?

Because we are talking about how Dalton performed, and QB performance is usually measured by passer rating.  So it doesn't make to talk about how a teams number of yards allowed effect a QBs passer rating.

Apples to apples.  Makes sense to me.

[djs7685]

(07-08-2015, 09:33 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Because we are talking about how Dalton performed, and QB performance is usually measured by passer rating.  So it doesn't make to talk about how a teams number of yards allowed effect a QBs passer rating.

Apples to apples.  Makes sense to me.

While ignoring that the passer rating formula created for a QB doesn't translate 100% to defensive players?

Like I said, it's fun to look at and it can point you in the right direction, but "combined passer rating allowed" for a defense isn't quite the same as using it when speaking of the QB directly. Where do you even get passer rating allowed for the entire defense from?

Also, YOU are the one talking about passer rating, myself and others have been talking about how Andy Dalton looked as a QB in 2014. We don't need statistical manipulation and cherry picked numbers, we're just talking about how Andy looked as a QB throughout the year. I don't care if his passer rating was 50 or 150, over the first 5 weeks he looked confident, composed, and he made good decisions. After that, he slowly seemed to regress with the exception of a random game or two by the end of the season. I know you're too obsessed with stats to actually discuss his game, so good day.

[fredtoast]

(07-08-2015, 07:24 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Honestly, I'm just done with this because you just pick certain threads and HAVE to be the contrarian. You refuse to admit when you're wrong and called out for this stuff (as I proved by the huge leap in rating when the Saints game is taken out compared to other games being taken out). He played well for 5 games, the wheels fell off, he looked good in a game or two after that, but generally he looked like crap for the rest of the year. Fredtoast saying otherwise doesn't change it, all of us with functioning eyes saw it without needing to manipulate all of the stats in the world to create an imaginary point.

Sorry it has offended you so much that I have disagreed with you.  It has nothing with me "just being a contrarian". It has to do with you being wrong about Dalton "looking like crap" after the first five games of the year.

And I find it a little funny when you claim my entire argument is just "because Fredtoast says so" when I have gone to the trouble to post solid facts to back up my position.  I agree he looked better at the beginning of the season, but your claim that he "looked like crap for the rest of the year" just is not true."

Dalton had 4 good games in his first 5.  After that he only had 5 good games in his last 11.  So he certainly became more inconsistent as the season progressed.  But 5 good games is a lot more than "a couple" and he actually had his two best games in the second half of the season.

[fredtoast]

(07-08-2015, 09:40 AM)djs7685 Wrote:  Where do you even get passer rating allowed for the entire defense from?

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING&tabSeq=2&season=2014&role=OPP&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&qualified=false

(07-08-2015, 09:40 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Also, YOU are the one talking about passer rating, myself and others have been talking about how Andy Dalton looked as a QB in 2014. We don't need statistical manipulation and cherry picked numbers, we're just talking about how Andy looked as a QB throughout the year. I don't care if his passer rating was 50 or 150, over the first 5 weeks he looked confident, composed, and he made good decisions. After that, he slowly seemed to regress with the exception of a random game or two by the end of the season. I know you're too obsessed with stats to actually discuss his game, so good day.

Didn't you just insult me by claiming that I based my argument on just "because i said so"? 

The problem with basing an argument on just your opinion is that sometimes people have different, conflicting opinions.  So some of these people have to be wrong, and I can post a long list of examples where peoples opinions have been just flat our wrong.

I would take a 150 passer rating from QB who you thought "looked like crap" over a 50 passer rating from a QB who you think looks "confident".  Football games are won with production instead confidence. 

BTW debates are not won based on confidence either.  Some of the dumbest comments come from people who are very confident that they are right.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-08-2015, 09:52 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Sorry it has offended you so much that I have disagreed with you.  It has nothing with me "just being a contrarian". It has to do with you being wrong about Dalton "looking like crap" after the first five games of the year.

And I find it a little funny when you claim my entire argument is just "because Fredtoast says so" when I have gone to the trouble to post solid facts to back up my position.  I agree he looked better at the beginning of the season, but your claim that he "looked like crap for the rest of the year" just is not true."

Dalton had 4 good games in his first 5.  After that he only had 5 good games in his last 11.  So he certainly became more inconsistent as the season progressed.  But 5 good games is a lot more than "a couple" and he actually had his two best games in the second half of the season.

Forget the stats ! I don't need stats to tell me about the Bengals. He's not wrong about Dalton looking like crap the last 2/3rd's of the season. Overall he did !

I'm sorry you lack the confidence to speak about the Bengals without looking up some figures.

Andy Dalton was playing with confidence. passion, fire, belief, etc. the first 1/3 of the season. Then it went away, you could see it. You don't need figures to see that.

[fredtoast]

(07-08-2015, 10:06 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm sorry you lack the confidence to speak about the Bengals without looking up some figures.

When  I do that people say.  "It's not true just because say so." 

So no matter what i do someone insults me.

[djs7685]

(07-08-2015, 10:11 AM)fredtoast Wrote: When  I do that people say.  "It's not true just because say so." 

So no matter what i do someone insults me.

You're taking what I said out of context.

I'll gladly discuss your opinions if you're willing to talk about Andy outside of statistics, but you haven't done so in this thread.

I said "it's not true just because Fred said so" meaning that just because you post skewed stats and display them in a manner that shows that you're "right" doesn't make it true. I was speaking of the cherry picked stats that you presented, I wasn't saying that your opinions are invalid just because they're your opinions.

Maybe I should have chosen better wording for what I originally said, but I didn't mean that I wouldn't be willing to discuss your opinions of Andy outside of stats or that I'd think you're wrong no matter what you say. That wasn't my intention.

[fredtoast]

(07-08-2015, 10:14 AM)djs7685 Wrote: I'll gladly discuss your opinions if you're willing to talk about Andy outside of statistics, but you haven't done so in this thread.

I have been watching Dalton for years.  He has the skills to be a very good QB and this is proven by how well he performs in his top games.  But he also looks completely lost in some games and completely falls apart.  Over the years his performances have been up and down in a pretty randon fashion.  And this is what I saw in 2014.  he looked really good is some games early in the year and he also looked really good in some games later in the year.  I didn't see a guy who was flawless early in the year, and I didn't see a guy who was perfect late in the yar.  instead I saw the same thing i have seen over his entire career.  he was up and down in a random fashion.

How do you explain the fact that he struggled against the Titans early in the season, but then came back and had one of his best games of the year the very next week?

Most of the time I hear these comments about how Dalton was flawless early in the season and crap l;ater in the season it is used as a criticism of Zampese.  Zampese is like Paul Alexander.  He does a good job, but people want to hate on him just because he has been here a long time.

So there you have it.  i think you are wrong in your opinion of Dalton looking great in every game early in the year and like crap after the first five games.  To me he looked like the same old up-and-down Dalton.  He had some very good games late in the season, and he had a bad game early in the season.  

[djs7685]

(07-08-2015, 10:56 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I have been watching Dalton for years.  He has the skills to be a very good QB and this is proven by how well he performs in his top games.  But he also looks completely lost in some games and completely falls apart.  Over the years his performances have been up and down in a pretty randon fashion.  And this is what I saw in 2014.  he looked really good is some games early in the year and he also looked really good in some games later in the year.  I didn't see a guy who was flawless early in the year, and I didn't see a guy who was perfect late in the yar.  instead I saw the same thing i have seen over his entire career.  he was up and down in a random fashion.

How do you explain the fact that he struggled against the Titans early in the season, but then came back and had one of his best games of the year the very next week?

Most of the time I hear these comments about how Dalton was flawless early in the season and crap l;ater in the season it is used as a criticism of Zampese.  Zampese is like Paul Alexander.  He does a good job, but people want to hate on him just because he has been here a long time.

So there you have it.  i think you are wrong in your opinion of Dalton looking great in every game early in the year and like crap after the first five games.  To me he looked like the same old up-and-down Dalton.  He had some very good games late in the season, and he had a bad game early in the season.  

I don't recall ever saying he was flawless early on, nor do I recall saying that he never looked good at any point later in the year. No QB is 100% perfect or 100% terrible. When I said "he looked like crap as the year went on", I didn't mean that he literally looked like a turd on the field, it's an expression. I did clearly state that he had a couple of good games in between, but IMO he looked much better early than he did later on, and I don't see how anyone that watched the games could argue with that. That's why I said "he looked like crap as the year went on".

Where do you get that he struggled against the Titans? The stat sheet or are you watching the game? I remember a confident Andy Dalton stepping up in the pocket making a lot of short, smart throws that went for some decent yards at times. He didn't look like crap in that game at all, and I don't care what his passer rating was (I don't even know at the moment to be honest). He didn't throw for any TDs because the playcalling didn't dictate it. The game was a blowout, and run plays were called at the goalline. Don't forget he also had his TD reception in that game. Andy played well against the Titans, I don't need a stat sheet to tell me how he played. I remember the beginning of 2014 very, very well as I've watched them all multiple times even a couple of the games recently. Maybe I should re-watch the later half of the year more, but I do remember a lot of details about most of the games this past season as a whole.

I'm not using this to bash Zampese, I just think you're fiddling with the numbers to go out of your way defending Zampese. I blame Andy himself, Hue, Zampese, Marvin, and injuries all for the regression that I saw over the season. Hue's playcalling wasn't helping any QB at the end of the year, and past that Zampese or Marvin should have done something about Andy's lack of confidence and pocket awareness that became abysmal by year's end. I'm not blaming anyone specifically, but I'd personally say Andy and Hue are the 2 biggest culprits.

I don't think he looked like the same up and down Dalton at all. I believe he looked sharp and prepared for the first 5 games. After that, you didn't know who was going to show up. I think Andy may have had his confidence knocked out of him against Indy and especially Cleveland, but who knows for sure, that's why we're here discussing it. Andy looked like there was a different man showing up after the first month or two, and I can't believe you didn't see that too.

[fredtoast]

(07-08-2015, 11:18 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Where do you get that he struggled against the Titans? The stat sheet or are you watching the game? I remember a confident Andy Dalton stepping up in the pocket making a lot of short, smart throws that went for some decent yards at times. He didn't look like crap in that game at all,

He threw a terrible pick at the end of the first half deep in our own territory, and I don't think we converted on third down that entire game until trash time in the fourth quarter.

Do you honestly watch games and say "Wow Dalton just threw a terrible pick, but that's okay because he looked confident doing it"?

[djs7685]

(07-08-2015, 11:48 AM)fredtoast Wrote: He threw a terrible pick at the end of the first half deep in our own territory, and I don't think we converted on third down that entire game until trash time in the fourth quarter.

Do you honestly watch games and say "Wow Dalton just threw a terrible pick, but that's okay because he looked confident doing it"?

No, but if it's just one terrible pick here and there, I honestly don't think it's a huge deal. I don't remember seeing many of those in the first 6 weeks/5 games of the season.

Maybe I should re-watch the Titans game in the near future because I don't remember him struggling as much as you and his passer rating are suggesting.

[RoyleRedlegs]

(07-08-2015, 11:55 AM)djs7685 Wrote: No, but if it's just one terrible pick here and there, I honestly don't think it's a huge deal. I don't remember seeing many of those in the first 6 weeks/5 games of the season.

Maybe I should re-watch the Titans game in the near future because I don't remember him struggling as much as you and his passer rating are suggesting.

15-23, 169 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT.
He didn't play poorly, the INT was just sort of a fluke. 
Tipped ball on a screen, DB just happened to be right there.

He did catch a TD this game though, so you would think it should factor into his QBR.....

If he threw for 1 TD instead of catching one, his QB rating jumps to 83.4

[fredtoast]

(07-08-2015, 12:58 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote:  the INT was just sort of a fluke. 
Tipped ball on a screen, DB just happened to be right there.

You are correct.  I was wrong about that one.

[djs7685]

(07-08-2015, 12:58 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: 15-23, 169 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT.
He didn't play poorly, the INT was just sort of a fluke. 
Tipped ball on a screen, DB just happened to be right there.

He did catch a TD this game though, so you would think it should factor into his QBR.....

If he threw for 1 TD instead of catching one, his QB rating jumps to 83.4

Wasn't there also a penalty or two on passing plays in/near the endzone which put the ball in position for the RBs to pound them in? I'm pretty sure this was the game I'm thinking of where that happened at least once.

It was a blowout so Andy wasn't throwing the ball all over the place, but he still played well from what I remember. Now I definitely want to go re-watch this one.

[Shake n Blake]

(07-08-2015, 12:58 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: 15-23, 169 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT.
He didn't play poorly, the INT was just sort of a fluke. 
Tipped ball on a screen, DB just happened to be right there.

He did catch a TD this game though, so you would think it should factor into his QBR.....

If he threw for 1 TD instead of catching one, his QB rating jumps to 83.4

Beat me to it. That pass was bobbled by Gio. Of course, back then people still found a way to blame it on Dalton.

It really wasn't a bad pass. This truly was one of those games where he looked a lot better than his stat line.