Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory

[J24]

(07-07-2015, 03:28 PM)djs7685 Wrote: 1. Andy was at his best under Jay Gruden. The offense as a whole has performed at a higher level under Gruden than Hue. You say this "Hue understands more" from thread to thread yet you ignore when someone brings up that Gruden has proven much more than Hue has at this point.

2. "Wilson hasn't been asked to carry the load" is a myth. You added in the part "with his arm", but what does it matter if it's with his arm or his legs? The fact is, Wilson has averaged 32.5 touches per game (simply using pass attempts + rush attempts for these examples) over his NFL career, which is hardly the coaching staff never asking him to do the heavy lifting for his team. For reference, Andy averages around 36.18 touches per game, less than 4 more than RW. A guy like Andrew Luck touches the ball a lot, and his number is right around 41.7 touches per game.

Using these 3 examples, Andy is somewhere around average compared to other NFL QBs, Luck is a little on the high side, and RW is a little on the low side. Now, if you want to compare Luck and RW, it may look a bit off since there's a 9.2 touch per game difference, but most NFL QBs are going to be comparable in this regard, and a small handful of touches per game one way or the other isn't the extreme difference that many people around here want to make it seem. I feel like people just want stuff to use as excuses so they can ***** about different things.

"Andy is asked to do so much!" and "So and so isn't asked to do anything offensively!" are just bullshit myths that people create to spin the stats in their favor. In reality, EVERY NFL QB is asked to do a lot. Hell, even the year that Peterson rushed for 2,100 yards, Christian Ponder averaged around 33 touches per game. Crazy, huh? He also ended a year with an 81 passer rating. But wait, I thought having the best RB in the league guaranteed the QB an easy time? I guess that puts that myth to rest too!

It's the same as the people that claim that Andy releasing the ball a slight fraction of a second less than somebody else is what made our offensive line give up 20 less sacks and 50 less hurries than the other team

You do understand that there is more risk when you throw the ball then when you run  with it or do you lack basic common football knowledge? That's why QBs are not judged by their running ability as much as their passing ability. Andy is asked more to do in this offense then Russell Wilson  is asked to do in his offense. By the way I never said Russell Wilson was a bad QB *******.    Secondly while Andy did have his best statistical season he also thrown 20 ints. He also had Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert, and had AJ green for a full season. I am not sure if you know this but AJ missed 3 games and missed two others, Eifert was out all year, and so was Marvin Jones.

[2MinutesHate]

If only Andy knew how many arguments he's started on the message boards.   

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 04:05 PM)J24 Wrote: You do understand that there is more risk when you throw the ball then when you run  with it or do you lack basic common football knowledge? That's why QBs are not judged by their running ability as much as their passing ability. Andy is asked more to do in this offense then Russell Wilson  is asked to do in his offense. By the way I never said Russell Wilson was a bad QB *******.    Secondly while Andy did have his best statistical season he also thrown 20 ints. He also had Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert, and had AJ green for a full season. I am not sure if you know this but AJ missed 3 games and missed two others, Eifert was out all year, and so was Marvin Jones.

1. You should probably not tell people they "lack basic common football knowledge" and they're a "*******" when you look like you've eaten more footballs than you've thrown in your lifetime.

2. Where in the flying hell do you get that there's more risk when you throw the ball than run it?

3. Running QBs are judged by their ability to run. Herp derp, get some football knowledge, kiddo.

4. Look at the FACTS that I posted where Andy is "asked to do more" by 3.68 touches per game. If you think that's such a big difference, maybe you're the "*******" here?

5. I never said that you said RW was a bad QB, I was just providing actual facts and not talking out of my ass like you're continuously doing.

6. Andy's best statistical season was under Gruden, fact. Hue hasn't shown much as an OC thus far, fact. I never said that Hue is terrible or that Gruden is a God, but your notion that "Hue knows what's better for the team than Gruden!" is pure speculation with NOTHING to back it up, so back the **** off if you don't want to sound like a complete moron.

[J24]

(07-07-2015, 03:29 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: What a bunch of bologna.  Do you guys seriously believe some of this stuff?  I have to imagine you just kind of make it up as you go. 

First, define "elite workload".  I'm not sure what that is, but I'll take a stab on breaking down what would constitute an "elite" workload.

Number has to be having to carry a team.  An elite workload would have to start with having to put the team on your back, and more than likely do so with the detriment of your defense.

Well, here's the defensive rankings for the teams Andy been paired with:  7th, 6th, 3rd, 22nd.

Hmm, Andy sure has enjoyed some pretty good defenses.  Nothing about these numbers seems to suggest that it takes a Herculian effort to win when paired with these defensive counterpart.

Maybe by "elite workload" you simply mean putting up elite stats?  Sure, that's it, right?  Andy has been elite, therefore he has an elite workload.  But, wait.  He finished 25th in passer rating this year.  20th, 13th, 15 in 2011, 2012 and 2013.So he hasn't played elite either.  Swing and a miss.

Ok, well maybe we're just talking volume.  He has to throw a ton.  They ask him to do more.  Umm...He finished 14th in pass attempts this season.

So just so we're clear, he's been given top 7 defenses in 3 of his 4 years.  He's never posted a QB rating anywhere near elite and he ranks average in attempts.

Why is he given an elite workload again?  Could it be he is asked to a pretty typical amount, and that we can all smell the bs a mile away?  These excuses get more and more desperate by the thread.  Elite workload?  Give me a break...

I never said he was an elite Qb I simply said he was asked to do too much for a Qb of his ability. Somehow you mistook that as me saying he was an elite Qb. I don't think Andy Dalton should be asked to throw the ball 40 times per a playoff game. I do not think he should be throwing the ball more than 30 times a game in a season.  Elite is throwing the ball more than 40 times a game I don't think we should ask Andy to through that much. We have asked Andy to throw the Ball 40 times 15 times during his career including playoffs. In those games were 3-11-1.

[J24]

(07-07-2015, 04:15 PM)djs7685 Wrote: 1. You should probably not tell people they "lack basic common football knowledge" and they're a "*******" when you look like you've eaten more footballs than you've thrown in your lifetime.

2. Where in the flying hell do you get that there's more risk when you throw the ball than run it?

3. Running QBs are judged by their ability to run. Herp derp, get some football knowledge, kiddo.

4. Look at the FACTS that I posted where Andy is "asked to do more" by 3.68 touches per game. If you think that's such a big difference, maybe you're the "*******" here?

5. I never said that you said RW was a bad QB, I was just providing actual facts and not talking out of my ass like you're continuously doing.

6. Andy's best statistical season was under Gruden, fact. Hue hasn't shown much as an OC thus far, fact. I never said that Hue is terrible or that Gruden is a God, but your notion that "Hue knows what's better for the team than Gruden!" is pure speculation with NOTHING to back it up, so back the **** off if you don't want to sound like a complete moron.

Everyone on the  planet knows there more risk in throwing the ball than running the ball. That's why teams with younger Qbs tend to throw the ball less and why they tend to run the ball more. Its common football knowledge.
Qbs- Are judged by the way they throw ball and winning games. The only reason why teams ask Qbs to run the ball is because there not skilled enough yet at passing the ball yet.
3.68 touches per a game equals 59 more touches a year. That's significant Batman!
Andy Also had 20 interceptions that year and had a full compliment of Receivers an TES. He didn't lave the luxury of that last season. I think Hue is better for the team because he is going to actually run the football and not ask to much of Andy. 

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 04:52 PM)J24 Wrote: The only reason why teams ask Qbs to run the ball is because there not skilled enough yet at passing the ball yet.

Aaaaaaahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaahhahahhahahahahahhah

Orly? Please tell me more about your vast football knowledge.

Don't go cutting a WWF style promo on me or I won't know what to do.

If 3 and a half per game is such a huge difference where you consider one guy to be at an "elite level of touches" and the other "isn't asked to do much", you may know absolutely nothing about the game of football.

You seem like one of the tools that have preconceived thoughts and you don't care how stupid you sound on your way to getting to your conclusions. Keep going, it's humorous.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 03:29 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: What a bunch of bologna.  Do you guys seriously believe some of this stuff?  I have to imagine you just kind of make it up as you go. 

First, define "elite workload".  I'm not sure what that is, but I'll take a stab on breaking down what would constitute an "elite" workload.

Number has to be having to carry a team.  An elite workload would have to start with having to put the team on your back, and more than likely do so with the detriment of your defense.

Well, here's the defensive rankings for the teams Andy been paired with:  7th, 6th, 3rd, 22nd.

Hmm, Andy sure has enjoyed some pretty good defenses.  Nothing about these numbers seems to suggest that it takes a Herculian effort to win when paired with these defensive counterpart.

Maybe by "elite workload" you simply mean putting up elite stats?  Sure, that's it, right?  Andy has been elite, therefore he has an elite workload.  But, wait.  He finished 25th in passer rating this year.  20th, 13th, 15 in 2011, 2012 and 2013.So he hasn't played elite either.  Swing and a miss.

Ok, well maybe we're just talking volume.  He has to throw a ton.  They ask him to do more.  Umm...He finished 14th in pass attempts this season.

So just so we're clear, he's been given top 7 defenses in 3 of his 4 years.  He's never posted a QB rating anywhere near elite and he ranks average in attempts.

Why is he given an elite workload again?  Could it be he is asked to a pretty typical amount, and that we can all smell the bs a mile away?  These excuses get more and more desperate by the thread.  Elite workload?  Give me a break...

First...Go back and look...My discussion has been about Wilson in general and not even really mentioned Dalton...Actualy, I do not even think I mentioned him once in this whole discussion....

Second, I agree with you...Dalton has had a great supporting cast and most on here, incuding myself have a probem with the playoffs...In the playoffs our defense is the worst or near the bottom, of the 12 teams that make the playoffs every single year...Yet, no one will lay sole blame on the defense like they do with Dalton...Or blame the amighty Zimmer on that when he was here...this team fails as a whole every single year...it is just not Dalton...it is the entire team...So to say that Dalton's miserable performances is the main reason for those losses is so totally off base...is he part to blame, of course 100%....but there is plenty of blame to go around

[J24]

(07-07-2015, 05:02 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Aaaaaaahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaahhahahhahahahahahhah

Orly? Please tell me more about your vast football knowledge.

Don't go cutting a WWF style promo on me or I won't know what to do.

If 3 and a half per game is such a huge difference where you consider one guy to be at an "elite level of touches" and the other "isn't asked to do much", you may know absolutely stone nothing about the game of football.

You seem like one of the tools that have preconceived thoughts and you don't care how stupid you sound on your way to getting to your conclusions.

 First I am sorry for calling you a ******* that was uncalled for on my part..
 So  I am going to compare Andy Dalton first three regular seasons in touches  and Russell Wilson first three years in touches. Both played all 48 games in there first three seasons.
Andy Dalton first three seasons   Russell Wilson first three seasons
Rookie- 553 touches-34.5.                       Rookie 487 touches- 30.4
2nd year575 touches-35.9                       2nd year 503 touches-31.4
3rd year 647 touches- 40.4 .                    3rd year 570 touches 35.62
 1775=36.9 touches                                          1560 touches= 32.5
1775 -1560= 215 touches more for Andy Dalton in his first three seasons then Russell Wilson had in is first three seasons. I am pretty sure you would agree with me that 215 more  touches over a 3 year span is significant. This past season though Russell Wilson did have more touches 570(35.62) then did Dalton at 541(33.8 per a game). I would like to see Andy have around 30 to 35 touches a game rather than 35 to 40 touches a game. I think Andy is a good(Not great and not very good) Qb and we are capable of winning a title with him as our Qb but for that to happen I think we would have to see less of him and more of his supporting cast. Also the Defense has to play up to there 2011-2013 selves. FYI Andy averages 43.5 touches per a playoff game and Russell Wilson averages 30.625 touches a playoff game.

[Shake n Blake]

Just looking over the last few pages, people sure do get hateful over this stuff. It's be nice if people could disagree in a civil manner. 

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 06:26 PM)J24 Wrote:  First I am sorry for calling you a ******* that was uncalled for on my part..
 So  I am going to compare Andy Dalton first three regular seasons in touches  and Russell Wilson first three years in touches. Both played all 48 games in there first three seasons.
Andy Dalton first three seasons   Russell Wilson first three seasons
Rookie- 553 touches-34.5.                       Rookie 487 touches- 30.4
2nd year575 touches-35.9                       2nd year 503 touches-31.4
3rd year 647 touches- 40.4 .                    3rd year 570 touches 35.62
 1775=36.9 touches                                          1560 touches= 32.5
1775 -1560= 215 touches more for Andy Dalton in his first three seasons then Russell Wilson had in is first three seasons. I am pretty sure you would agree with me that 215 more  touches over a 3 year span is significant. This past season though Russell Wilson did have more touches 570(35.62) then did Dalton at 541(33.8 per a game). I would like to see Andy have around 30 to 35 touches a game rather than 35 to 40 touches a game. I think Andy is a good(Not great and not very good) Qb and we are capable of winning a title with him as our Qb but for that to happen I think we would have to see less of him and more of his supporting cast. Also the Defense has to play up to there 2011-2013 selves. FYI Andy averages 43.5 touches per a playoff game and Russell Wilson averages 30.625 touches a playoff game.

Quick question.....

Are you counting all of Russell Wilson's playoff games and Superbowls when comparing the two? 

Maybe the best way to limit Dalton's touching of the football is to take him off of the field? 

I'm kidding.

But, seriously, this is too much. Way way way off base excuse making for the guy.

[PDub80]

Please please please stay on topic.

A lot of diverting and slight of hand from the main topic has happened in this thread. A lot of sniping and name calling, not in fun, either. Now people are debating AD vs. Russell Wilson? There is no comparison as far as this thread is concerned unless it is on passer rating or something pertinent to the topic.

In the paneon of NFL QBs, at this point in time it's RUSSELL WILSON >>>>>>>>>>>> andy dalton /pleaseend thatpartofthread

[Luvnit2]

(07-07-2015, 07:35 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Just looking over the last few pages, people sure do get hateful over this stuff. It's be nice if people could disagree in a civil manner. 

^^^^^^^^^

This

It appears to be the same that resort to superior attitude and insults.

We would have much better discussions if all of the personal attacks ceased.

As for the thread I agree Andy needs to improve his floor. I also believe Wilson is a much better QB at this point in his career.

I also believe the jury is out on Hue as I do give him a pass for 2014 due to AJ missing 6 games Jones and Eifert missed most of the year. Wright, Gresham, Sanz. and a A. Smith were damning injuries.

 I don't see how anyone could feel Hue's one injury plagued year can be compared to Gruden's 3 years. In fact, AD had his best year in year #3 of Gruden's offense. It is apples to oranges thus far and not worthy of comparison.

[t3r3e3]

(07-07-2015, 10:47 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: And how was the statement that I made wrong?

Dalton had 10 games in the regular season the last two years with a rating of 70 or lower - true

6 out of those 10 games came from two teams - true

So why does a guy like Russell Wilson have a 10+ point higher passer rating, because He's played against  the toughest defensive division in football over the past few years? Playing San Fran before everyone retired this offseason, a very good Zona d, and the nasty St Louis d must mean Wilson is unfairly penalized.  Oh wait...What about Kaepernick and Palmer?  Do they also get a pass? Or this is only a Dalton excuse?

[CornerBlitz]

This is such a one sided debate it's not even funny. I read through 6 pages and the Dalton supporters are resorting to absolutely ridiculous arguments. It's really laughable at times.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-07-2015, 09:15 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Doesn't mean a lot to me

Luck produces his worst twice as often as Tannehill.

Russell Wilson produces his worst more than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Tom Brady produces his worst more than Alex Smith or Jay Cutler.


So does this mean that Tannehill is twice as good as Luck, Fitz is better then Wilson, and Smith and Cutler are better than Brady?  I don't think so.

No. It just means that other QBs hit their "floor" at a much lower rate than Dalton does. Seriously, the only other QB equal to Dalton is Geno Smith. 

The thing to keep in mind; other mid-range QBs who hit their floor less than Dalton, but remain around Dalton in rating aren't doing as much, or don't have the ceiling, that Dalton does. He hits as many stinkers as he does and still remains (mostly) middle of the pack. As soon as he brings his floor up a bit, his overall rating rises and everyone in Bengaland is happy.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-07-2015, 10:29 AM)spazz70 Wrote: Stopped reading when you said you used ESPN's Total QBR...That rating is total junk...A QB like Kaep can pass 2 times in a game and run for 150 yards and 2 scores and have a huge QBR...Is he really a QB at this point?  No, the same as Tommy Frazier was never really a QB at Nebraska....Hate that terrible rating system...Do the same stats with just Passer Rating where it does not take running the ball in to effect and takes the skill of a QB throwing the ball and see where these players stand at that point...Not trying to boast Dalton, just trying to make it a fair playing level for any "Quarterback"...Just my opinion

Not defending it because i don't like ESPNs QBR. I don't like any weighted system. With that said, Total QBR isn't a "passer rating" like the standard Quarterback Rating system that the NFL uses, is.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-07-2015, 10:35 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Wrong. We didn't play Miami last year, and Dalton didn't have a rating below 70 last year against Baltimore.

2014
Ten - 68.9
Ind - 55.4
Cle - 2, 53.6
TB - 60.7

2013
Cle - 58.2, 62.7
Mia - 55.4
Bal - 52.3, 62.2


5+5= 12?

Playoffs are included, for every QB applicable. Because, well, they played the games and they counted.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-07-2015, 10:36 AM)djs7685 Wrote: The fact is that you don't go out of your way to look at who Russell Wilson (and the other 30 QBs for that matter) has had to play against, you just put your head up Andy's ass and say that Wilson and others are overrated and Andy's stats are "skewed" because he plays in the AFCN.

The fact is that I've honestly NEVER seen a negative comment about Andy that you haven't found an excuse for. Why not just be able to admit that he may not be good at every single thing that makes a QB a high quality player? Would it absolutely kill you if you would look more objective in these conversations? Imaginary rep is silly and doesn't mean much, but it does seem to show that not many people are going along with your constantly insane ramblings and excuses.

I have no problem talking about Andy's positives or negatives. I have no problem talking about games where Andy played well or the games that he played poorly. I also have no problem with going in depth by showing competition played against. The problem comes with trying to have a rational discussion about our QB with YOU. You're too obsessed to have a fair discussion without going full blown crazy when it comes to anything that's even slightly negative about the guy. You're a crazy person.

i can't disagree with the sentiment that he's a really big Dalton fan.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-07-2015, 10:47 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: And how was the statement that I made wrong?

Dalton had 10 games in the regular season the last two years with a rating of 70 or lower - true

6 out of those 10 games came from two teams - true

So basically, it comes down to "if".

If Dalton played in a weaker division, he'd be a better QB. 

ehhhh...

[J24]

(07-07-2015, 07:36 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Quick question.....

Are you counting all of Russell Wilson's playoff games and Superbowls when comparing the two? 

Maybe the best way to limit Dalton's touching of the football is to take him off of the field? 

I'm kidding.

But, seriously, this is too much. Way way way off base excuse making for the guy.

How is it off base? Can you elaborate instead of just ignoring the point because it goes against your argument?  In all honesty should Andy Dalton average 40 pass attempts in the playoffs?  Joe Flaco averages 30 pass attempts during the playoffs, Big Ben averages 30 pass attempts in the playoffs,  and Russell Wilson and averages 25 pass attempts per a game.  We can all agree that those three guys are have been the most successful young playoff Qbs right? Well maybe it has to do with the fact that there not asked to carry their respective teams and the coaching staff puts less pressure him.