Are we SURE that Antonio Brown is better than AJ Green?

[Shake n Blake]

(09-15-2016, 09:21 PM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: I have no idea what the longest pass is, but get what Rhinocero is saying.  If you throw the ball from the left hash mark to the right sideline, it is traveling much further than if you throw it to the left sideline.

Andy has great anticipation, is accurate, and has a very strong football mind.  Except on this board, I have never heard anyone claim he has a strong arm by NFL standards.  I would say it is average.  It is not an insult though because he is much "stronger" that most in the other areas. Look at a Drew Brees.  If you're smart and have good anticipation, you can be very successful with an average arm.

I can honestly say I haven't seen anyone on here claim that Dalton has a strong arm. Above average is the best compliment I've seen, even from brownshoe. Dalton's arm is strong enough for him to make almost any throw the offense would normally need and it's strong enough to consistently make him good on deep passes. That's all that matters really. 

Speaking of Brees, I wonder how often his arm strength is complained about on Saints' message boards? His arm is what it is. He gets the job done. Constantly bringing up his "average" arm just feels like complaining because there's nothing else left to complain about. Maybe that's not the motivation here, but that's how it comes off to me.

Dalton's arm isn't a cannon. Got it. It's not really something he can improve much, so what else is there to say? It's like wishing AJ Green had 4.27 speed. He doesn't, but he's still a fantastic WR with good enough speed.

If you want to say Dalton's arm is around average, I'll concede that it's around NFL average. Where I would disagree is when folks suggest that this has somehow hindered AJ Green or that Dalton only does well on deep passes because he has AJ Green. These are both things that have been suggested in this thread and others.

[*rfaulk34*]

Apparently, a Steelers fan quoted me in this thread and i didn't get to see it.

teehee!

[Jpoore]

(09-15-2016, 08:14 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yessir. 

Jamarcus Russell's longest throw on record was 82 yds in the air. He has/had one of the strongest arms ever.

EDIT: My mistake. After some more thought, it was Byron Leftwich that i remember seeing in one of those QB throwing competitions. So it was probably more like 72 yds.

I've seen a video of Russell, in high school, and it appears he throws the ball about 78 yards in the air.

Flacco and Cardale Jones both on video throwing it 74 yards.

Cardale jones can throw it 60 yards from his knees 

[Sovereign Nation]

(09-14-2016, 09:39 AM)Rhinocero23 Wrote: Dalton is good...last year very good. As much as I hate Ben, he is elite...that means in the top 5. Dalton is not there and probably never will be. Ben can make all the throws Dalton can make 90% of all the throws. I know you will want to disagree with this but given you are a great film researcher (you often support your stance with clips) show me one time Andy has put a ball in the air greater than 60 yards...if he has it needs to have height too.

Ben has several examples of balls traveling 75-80 yards is the air with a huge parabola. That gives a speedy wideout a huge advantage. It opens up an additional 25% of the field.

(09-14-2016, 10:40 AM)Rhinocero23 Wrote: You could have a point there.

 I still don't have any reason to believe Andy has that much arm. I think you may be muddying the waters a bit. Your example makes it seem as though the quarterback is just standing there waiting for receiver to run 60 yards down the field.

For instance last year Ben completed a pass against us that was on the left sideline coming from the north end zone. He was on the numbers on the right...the  receiver only had to run down the field 50 yards however the ball traveled close to 80. Point being he did not have to wait on the receiver to get down the field he had to have enough arm to throw the ball 80 yards in the air with a high enough arc to allow the receiver to run underneath it on the 50 yard go route. Andy cannot make that throw and never will. That does not make him a bad QB it just is obvious he cannot make all of the throws. 

Man, you really must not like Dalton....

I mean, sure you give him props, but think he doesn't have an "arm"?  Really?  His "arm" is better than most of the guys playing the game so it would be above average.  That doesn't mean he is the strongest armed QB, but he has time and again, thrown spot on targets to his WRs while they were in stride.  I remember his rookie year, him hitting Caldwell in stride down the right sideline that went for a TD against the Ravens.  I know that he overthrew Green against the Texans in the 2nd playoff game.

Now the fun part.  The times where it looks under thrown and the receiver having to slow down is more due to timing and not arm strength.  Each play has a design and sometimes the timing is off.  In a game of inches and mili seconds if a QB throws just a fraction late, he may throw the ball harder to try to make up the time, Dalton is great with anticipation, so he usually will throw earlier, so he will hold back some and do what all great QBs do and trust his guy to make the adjustment.  There are other things that could contribute to a QB putting more strength into his throws or holding back, such as pressure, coverage, game management, ect... so don't think just because YOU think Dalton has a weak arm and "cannot make all the throws", doesn't mean he does have a weak arm. 

I have yet to see a throw that he couldn't make that other QBs can.  I mean his Hail Mary pass against the Ravens went at least half the field before the tip drill.

[jeremydc]

(09-15-2016, 12:12 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Love me some AJ, but lets be real, folks... comparing rookie seasons between a 4th overall pick and a 195th overall pick in order to avoid recent history is pretty weak.

Antonio Brown 2016-2014: 273 catches/3,658 yards/25 TD
AJ Green 2016-2014: 170 catches/2,518 yards/17 TD

Antonio Brown (despite being a Steeler turd) is currently the best WR in the game. In a two year span, he basically is ahead of AJ statistically by a whole third season.

This. But whatever, the inherit hatred for the Steelers will void the stats. AB is currently the best receiver in the league. Deal with it.
Next game, let's keep the best under 100 yards. Best case scenario.

[PlayerFormerlyKnownAsMousecop]

(09-15-2016, 12:12 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Love me some AJ, but lets be real, folks... comparing rookie seasons between a 4th overall pick and a 195th overall pick in order to avoid recent history is pretty weak.

Antonio Brown 2016-2014: 273 catches/3,658 yards/25 TD
AJ Green 2016-2014: 170 catches/2,518 yards/17 TD

Antonio Brown (despite being a Steeler turd) is currently the best WR in the game. In a two year span, he basically is ahead of AJ statistically by a whole third season.

Antonio Brown 2016-2014: 385 targets
AJ Green 2016-2014: 262 targets

I've noticed that you have conveniently left these out...

[PlayerFormerlyKnownAsMousecop]

(09-15-2016, 12:12 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Love me some AJ, but lets be real, folks... comparing rookie seasons between a 4th overall pick and a 195th overall pick in order to avoid recent history is pretty weak.

Antonio Brown 2016-2014: 273 catches/3,658 yards/25 TD
AJ Green 2016-2014: 170 catches/2,518 yards/17 TD

Antonio Brown (despite being a Steeler turd) is currently the best WR in the game. In a two year span, he basically is ahead of AJ statistically by a whole third season.

If you average out the numbers by targets, they end up being nearly identical. 

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(09-15-2016, 09:25 PM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: There was some video I remember seeing of Russell throwing it like 65 yards from his knees.  It was impressive.

....but did he have a glass of drank/syzurp in his other hand.....THAT would have been impressive.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-16-2016, 08:15 AM)PlayerFormerlyKnownAsMousecop Wrote: Antonio Brown 2016-2014: 385 targets
AJ Green 2016-2014: 262 targets

I've noticed that you have conveniently left these out...

(09-16-2016, 08:24 AM)PlayerFormerlyKnownAsMousecop Wrote: If you average out the numbers by targets, they end up being nearly identical. 

It is convenient, have to take the targets in account.

BTW, i do like AB's nickname of AJ, Inspector Gadget cause of his long arms and how he just snatches the ball out of the air.

[WeezyBengal]

(09-12-2016, 12:34 PM)milksheikh Wrote: A.J. Green and Antonio Brown are 2 different type of receivers.

With that said, Antonio Brown is still better than Green, Brown had almost 2,000 yards last year while missing Ben Roethlisberger for some games. Green is top 3 in my opinion though, 1. AB 2. Julio 3. A.J.

You did not just put Julio in front of AJ. Julio is the most overrated player in the league. 

[Sweetness]

(09-16-2016, 04:00 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: You did not just put Julio in front of AJ. Julio is the most overrated player in the league. 

Dez Bryant. His stats when Romo isn't playing are so unbelievably bad. Which also goes to show how much of a difference the QB can make for a WR which adds to the argument for AJ being the better WR. 
Not a bash on Dalton, but Ben has been the better quarterback for most of AJ/AB careers thus far. Although I think a lot of that is due to Ben being much older and seasoned then Dalton.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-16-2016, 08:15 AM)PlayerFormerlyKnownAsMousecop Wrote: Antonio Brown 2016-2014: 385 targets
AJ Green 2016-2014: 262 targets

I've noticed that you have conveniently left these out...

(09-16-2016, 08:24 AM)PlayerFormerlyKnownAsMousecop Wrote: If you average out the numbers by targets, they end up being nearly identical. 

(09-16-2016, 12:50 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: It is convenient, have to take the targets in account.

BTW, i do like AB's nickname of AJ, Inspector Gadget cause of his long arms and how he just snatches the ball out of the air.

Mohamed Sanu 2016-2014: 156 targets ... I am still not sure what people are trying to prove by bringing up targets. Just because Sanu got targeted less doesn't mean I need to give him an advantage over AJ Green when comparing stats.

Not sure what to tell you. Better WRs generally get more targets. Obviously not always, but generally so. Here...

NFL 2015 WR Target Leaders:
-Julio Jones
-Antonio Brown
-DeAndre Hopkins
-Demaryius Thomas
-Brandon Marshall

NFL 2014 WR Target Leaders:
-Demaryius Thomas
-Antonio Brown
-Julio Jones
-Jordy Nelson
-Andre Johnson

Other than the Andre Johnson inclusion (because he is a possible HoF who just fell off a cliff after leading the AFC in yardage the year before) what do all of those names have in common? They're some of the best WRs in the league.

Good WRs = Open WRs = Targets (far more often than not). Having more targets isn't something that you need to penalize a player for. That'd be like penalizing DeMarco Murray in 2014 because he had too many carries compared to the other RBs.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-16-2016, 06:29 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Mohamed Sanu 2016-2014: 156 targets ... I am still not sure what people are trying to prove by bringing up targets. Just because Sanu got targeted less doesn't mean I need to give him an advantage over AJ Green when comparing stats.

Not sure what to tell you. Better WRs generally get more targets. Obviously not always, but generally so. Here...

It's easy. AJ Green, given his ypc and TD%--matching targets--would be more productive than Brown in those areas. Sanu's numbers--matching targets--would not give him an advantage over Green. 
Targets matter when receivers produce at a higher percentage. 

[Shake n Blake]

(09-16-2016, 08:34 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: It's easy. AJ Green, given his ypc and TD%--matching targets--would be more productive than Brown in those areas. Sanu's numbers--matching targets--would not give him an advantage over Green. 
Targets matter when receivers produce at a higher percentage. 

Something more relevant (IMO) would be looking at AB and AJs targets compared to team pass attempts. If you divide their targets by the team's total pass attempts, you'll know how often each receiver was targeted within each offense.

I think it's safe to say that AJ Green would get more targets in Pittsburgh than he does here, as Pittsburgh (without looking it up) probably passed around 100 more times than the Bengals did last year. That's 100 more "targets" to go around and it's safe to say that the majority of those would go to a #1 WR.

That's why I think overall target % would be telling. AJ is probably targeted at a similar % overall, but the Bengals pass less. I do know one thing though. AB didn't catch 136 passes simply because Ben has a strong arm.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-16-2016, 10:14 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Something more relevant (IMO) would be looking at AB and AJs targets compared to team pass attempts. If you divide their targets by the team's total pass attempts, you'll know how often each receiver was targeted within each offense.

I think it's safe to say that AJ Green would get more targets in Pittsburgh than he does here, as Pittsburgh (without looking it up) probably passed around 100 more times than the Bengals did last year. That's 100 more "targets" to go around and it's safe to say that the majority of those would go to a #1 WR.

That's why I think overall target % would be telling. AJ is probably targeted at a similar % overall, but the Bengals pass less. I do know one thing though. AB didn't catch 136 passes simply because Ben has a strong arm.

No doubt. That's part of what i was getting at. The Bengals throw less and, as a percentage, throw less towards Green than Pitt throws toward Brown. 

Passing att last year 
Pitt - 590
Cin - 505

Targets
Brown - 195
Green - 132

Target percentage
Brown - 33%
Green - 26%

That's why i said if Green had been targeted an equal amount of times, with his production and Dalton's comp%, Green would be more productive in yards and TDs.

[Shake n Blake]

I went ahead and looked it up.

Antonio Brown
- targeted on 32.7% of all throws (yikes..If Dalton did this, people would rip him for forcing it. Maybe this is why Ben had an awful INT%?)
- 590 total pass attempts

AJ Green
- targeted on 26.1% of all throws
- 505 pass attempts

By that %, if the Bengals passed it 590 times, AJ's numbers could've looked like this:

154 targets
100 catches
1510 yards
12 TDs

So he'd be closer to AB's production, but not quite there. Like I said though, the Steelers really focus heavily on getting the ball to Brown, whereas the Bengals focused more on spreading the ball last year. I would seriously take our passing offense over Pittburgh's last year though. Dalton was much more efficient and less INT prone than Ben. You could make an argument that this could've had something to do with how much each team forced it to the #1 guy.

It would be interesting to see the INT numbers for each receiver.

[*rfaulk34*]

2013 is the best head to head matchup you can use. Dalton and Burger both played a full season. 

Brown had 12 more catches.
Green had 15 more targets. 
Brown had 73 more yards. 
Green had 1 more yard per catch.
Green had 3 more touchdowns. 
Brown had 5 more catches of 20+ yards. 

Bengals had 587 attempts, Dalton had 586.
Steelers had 586 attempts, Burger had 584.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-16-2016, 10:37 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I went ahead and looked it up.

Antonio Brown
- targeted on 32.7% of all throws (yikes..If Dalton did this, people would rip him for forcing it. Maybe this is why Ben had an awful INT%?)
- 590 total pass attempts

AJ Green
- targeted on 26.1% of all throws
- 505 pass attempts

By that %, if the Bengals passed it 590 times, AJ's numbers could've looked like this:

154 targets
100 catches
1510 yards
12 TDs

So he'd be closer to AB's production, but not quite there. Like I said though, the Steelers really focus heavily on getting the ball to Brown, whereas the Bengals focused more on spreading the ball last year. I would seriously take our passing offense over Pittburgh's last year though. Dalton was much more efficient and less INT prone than Ben. You could make an argument that this could've had something to do with how much each team forced it to the #1 guy.

It would be interesting to see the INT numbers for each receiver.

The only problem i have with just using an equal number of attempts while using AJ's lower target percentage is, i could argue that if the Bengals threw more, AJ would probably be targeted more (in those extra attempts). That's why i prefer to use an equal number of targets with AJ's current percentages on ypc and tds.