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Vegas has us opening as 1 point favorites or 1.5 point favorites, which I think is a better prediction than any opinion of any "expert" because Vegas is somehow always so close in picking spreads.
Also, take into account that the home team automatically gets 3 points for the spread, and I'm liking our odds.
It doesn't automatically have us winning anything or give us any advantage and the team still needs to put it on the field, but I'm liking our chances, especially with the confidence coming off of a big Thursday Night Football win!
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Like the Bengals as a pick em game, but would not want to lay any points to Dallas.
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Why didn't Vegas have us -15 against the Dolphins if it's always close? The Cowboys will be steam rolled against us.
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(10-04-2016, 11:50 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Why didn't Vegas have us -15 against the Dolphins if it's always close? The Cowboys will be steam rolled against us.
Ok, not always close because there are surprises and upsets, but they're typically pretty spot-on with their predictions.
The fact that we're even favored is very telling, regardless of by how much.
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I'll say this. I am ahuge homer, but I would not bet on this '16 Bengals team. They have looked shaky at times.
I have a positive feeling that they can get their problems straightened out, but based just on what I have seen on the field so far i would not bet money on them beating any decent team on the road.
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This game is too weird for me to say one team should be that much favored over the other. Having said that, I would favor the Bengals simply because they need this game more than Dallas does. I expect Burfict to reek havok, and would be a little scared if I was Dallas.
I am also a huge homer.
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(10-04-2016, 12:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I'll say this. I am ahuge homer, but I would not bet on this '16 Bengals team. They have looked shaky at times.
I have a positive feeling that they can get their problems straightened out, but based just on what I have seen on the field so far i would not bet money on them beating any decent team on the road.
This is where I'm at...
I love this team and hope we go to the Superbowl, but we've looked very shaky this year... Reminds me a lot of the 2014-2015 season... :-(
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(10-04-2016, 11:50 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Why didn't Vegas have us -15 against the Dolphins if it's always close? The Cowboys will be steam rolled against us.
Because they dont care about the actual point differential. The bengals were something like 7 pt favorites and they won by 15 so they covered the spread.
Vegas sets odds more for stimulating betting. Theyre not in it for predictions or guessing the actual point differential.
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(10-04-2016, 01:08 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Vegas sets odds more for stimulating betting. Theyre not in it for predictions or guessing the actual point differential.
Right. It is complicated, but they are not predicting who will win the game. They are predicting how the public will bet on the game.
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The theme of the 2016 team is just weather the storm til some new pieces can gel and you get some help back at the skill position.
I think the OL will improve. but they just have to tread water til they can do so.
3-3 or better for the first 6 games would keep me optimistic.
2-4 and the pressure is on for sure.
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(10-04-2016, 01:08 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Because they dont care about the actual point differential. The bengals were something like 7 pt favorites and they won by 15 so they covered the spread.
Vegas sets odds more for stimulating betting. Theyre not in it for predictions or guessing the actual point differential.
This 100%
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(10-04-2016, 12:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I'll say this. I am ahuge homer, but I would not bet on this '16 Bengals team. They have looked shaky at times.
I have a positive feeling that they can get their problems straightened out, but based just on what I have seen on the field so far i would not bet money on them beating any decent team on the road.
Agree with this, but I dont think they can get their problems straightened out. I keep hearing people say "they better figure out how to run, the better figure out how to fix the offensive line" but I just dont think its that easy. They have some serious problems with some of the players they are playing. Its a talent problem. You just cant go and replace a guy on your roster with a better option because there sometimes arent any better options.
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(10-04-2016, 02:06 PM)Junglejuice Wrote: The theme of the 2016 team is just weather the storm til some new pieces can gel and you get some help back at the skill position.
I think the OL will improve. but they just have to tread water til they can do so.
3-3 or better for the first 6 games would keep me optimistic.
2-4 and the pressure is on for sure.
THe OLine will tread water while Bodine ice skates backwards  (Credit to Weezy for the Ice skates comment)
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The line will move once they know for sure if Dez Bryant is playing.
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(10-04-2016, 01:08 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Because they dont care about the actual point differential. The bengals were something like 7 pt favorites and they won by 15 so they covered the spread.
Vegas sets odds more for stimulating betting. Theyre not in it for predictions or guessing the actual point differential.
Vegas sets the odds to get betting on both sides, but they're normally pretty damn close, and it can't be completely off because they'll lose their ass.
And going on the road in a place like Dallas, if you think that they think that 50% of people believe that the Bengals will win by 1 or even keep it that close, then I have a ticket to sell you for you to watch me in the Olympic hurdles 
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(10-04-2016, 05:10 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: And going on the road in a place like Dallas, if you think that they think that 50% of people believe that the Bengals will win by 1 or even keep it that close, then I have a ticket to sell you for you to watch me in the Olympic hurdles
Yes. That is exactly what it means. That is how they set the line in Vegas.
If you believe that they really just try to predict who will win by how much then why does the line move based on how much money is bet on one side or the other? How would the amount of money bet effect who will win?
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(10-04-2016, 02:09 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Agree with this, but I dont think they can get their problems straightened out. I keep hearing people say "they better figure out how to run, the better figure out how to fix the offensive line" but I just dont think its that easy. They have some serious problems with some of the players they are playing. Its a talent problem. You just cant go and replace a guy on your roster with a better option because there sometimes arent any better options.
I disagree ,it's been done before. We got good lineman, we got top picks. Just got to find the right combination. I think replacing Bodine would make us a super bowl o line believe it or not. Once ced gets games under him. I also think if anyone else can play tackle, whitwhorth looks like a amazing guard.
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It will be a good close game, lets just hope the ball bounces our way...
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(10-04-2016, 12:53 PM)milksheikh Wrote: This is where I'm at...
I love this team and hope we go to the Superbowl, but we've looked very shaky this year... Reminds me a lot of the 2014-2015 season... :-(
It does not remind me of 2014-15 because of Dalton and his growth...but we have a tough early schedule but no way do I think this team is not able to make the playoffs.. it just might take a run of 4 to 5 games in middle of schedule to get us right in the race
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(10-04-2016, 12:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I'll say this. I am ahuge homer, but I would not bet on this '16 Bengals team. They have looked shaky at times.
I have a positive feeling that they can get their problems straightened out, but based just on what I have seen on the field so far i would not bet money on them beating any decent team on the road.
this. There is a lot to gel before they look like a true contender. Possible, but I don't think they look like they're on the threshold of breaking out.
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