Great Article about NFL Free Agency Spending/Winning

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(02-24-2017, 12:46 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Question - If the Bengals lose Whitworth and Zeitler, would players like Okung and Warmack be satisfactory consolation prizes? Sure, they aren't as good as Whitworth and Zeitler, but probably better than Ogbuehi at LT and a draft pick at RG. Plus both would likely be more in the price range that the Bengals FO think is reasonable.

But, Okung and Warmack are probably a tier above players like Eric Winston who the Bengals target in FA. 

[fredtoast]

(02-25-2017, 12:31 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:  but I am sure that won't keep a couple people from telling others "derp da derp Haynesworth" or something like that when people express a desire for the Bengals to actually improve for once in FA rather than get worse, or at best maintain their level.

But you can not just ignore reality to make it fit your argument.

For every team that got over the hump by signing free agents I can cite one that falied.

I also wish the Bengals would be a little more aggressive in free agency, but you can't just act like there is a simple plan that every team follows to win the super Bowl.  The fact that teams that win the Super Bowl have succesful free agent signings does not make the other facts disappear.  And that includes that fact that lots of team sign free agents to huge contracts that bust. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-25-2017, 02:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But you can not just ignore reality to make it fit your argument.

For every team that got over the hump by signing free agents I can cite one that falied.

I also wish the Bengals would be a little more aggressive in free agency, but you can't just act like there is a simple plan that every team follows to win the super Bowl.  The fact that teams that win the Super Bowl have succesful free agent signings does not make the other facts disappear.  And that includes that fact that lots of team sign free agents to huge contracts that bust. 

Of course you can cite one that failed. There's 32 teams in the NFL and only one of them can win a SB.

It doesn't change the fact that pretty much everyone who won a SB recently has added some key piece(s) in FA.

Comparing the Browns or Jags experiences in FA to why the Bengals shouldn't participate in FA makes no sense because as I said before, the Browns and Jags already suck, so FA won't fix them. Good teams that add good players in FA though? They generally get better.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-25-2017, 02:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But you can not just ignore reality to make it fit your argument.

Coming from you this just made me lol

[Shake n Blake]

(02-25-2017, 01:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 1. Bodine was given three years to develop.  That is not unreasonable at all.  If you looked at what other teams do instead of just criticizing everything the Bengals do you would realize that it is very rare for a team to cut a draft pick after just 2 seasons.

2. Rey was never as bad as some fans claimed, but he could have been replaced by now.

3. Michael Johnson is one of the top 30-35 DEs in the league and is paid accordingly.  We could not replace his production for the same price on the free agent market.

4. Jones is one of our best CBs.  He was actually one of the top 5 CBs in the league when he signed his current contract after the 15 season.



5. You must be a very new Bengal fan.  Or else you need to have a talk with Kyle Cook, Deltha Oneal, Rudi Johnson, and Willie Anderson.

1. Bengal67 asked "why are they still here". Bodine just completed his 3rd abysmal season and he's still a Bengal, so...
2. Agreed. Especially after last season. He should be cut already.
3. Agree somewhat...although an upgrade would be nice.
4. Jones should be cut. He's an embarrassment.
5. The fact that you have to go back to 9 years ago for 3 of those examples (Willie, Rudi and Deltha were all cut in 2008) says something. Cook was cut in 2013.

[Housh]

(02-24-2017, 03:02 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Correlation vs causation. It's not that free agency causes teams to lose. Teams that typically lose, typically have fewer players worthy of retaining - and hence more money to splurge in free agency. Using FA to fix a bad team overnight rarely - if ever - works, so it's likely that these types of teams continue to lose. This does not mean that FA should be avoided like the plague, or that a few calculated and intelligent FA moves can't help a good team get over the top.

This article is about teams that "win free agency". I've yet to see anyone asking the Bengals to do that. Pretty much every championship team over the last 25 years has benefitted greatly from a FA acquisition or a trade. This is undeniable really. It's not about "winning free agency", it's about dumping dead weight and making a smart move to get a solid player or two that greatly benefit the team. Think of the Patriots renting Revis for a championship run. Or renting a Martellus Bennett as a great insurance policy for their oft-injured star TE. These are just a couple of the hundreds of examples of successful pickups through the years.

Thank you for not being brainwashed like some ppl on here. They blindly rationalize everything the organization does.

We haven't won a playoff game in nearly 20 years. Can ppl get it through their head that that is NOT what winning ANYTHING looks like. The reason we're so STATISTICSLLY efficient in free agency is because we NEVER take any risks at all and only sign past prime mediocre bums. So let's say we put a free agent's caliber on a 1 to 5 point scale, and then the guy's performance on the field throughout his new contract to a 1 to 5 point scale. A lot of teams sign 4 and 5 point free agents but only get 3 point field production. That's considered a FA bust. The Bengals avoid this by only signing 1 and 2 point caliber free agents. So basically if that guy does anything consistent at all it's statisticslly a good signing. Only problem is we'll NEVER EVER catch lightning in a bottle in FA because the guys we sign literally don't have the talent capable to give us great on field production.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-25-2017, 05:40 PM)Housh Wrote: Thank you for not being brainwashed like some ppl on here. They blindly rationalize everything the organization does.

We haven't won a playoff game in nearly 20 years. Can ppl get it through their head that that is NOT what winning ANYTHING looks like. The reason we're so STATISTICSLLY efficient in free agency is because we NEVER take any risks at all and only sign past prime mediocre bums. So let's say we put free agent caliber  on a 1 to 5 point scale, and then FA performance on the field to a 1 to 5 point scale. A lot of teams sign 4 and 5 point free agents but only get 3 point field production. That's considered a FA bust. The Bengals only sign 1 and 2 point caliber free agents. So basically if that guy does anything at all it's statisticslly a good signing. Only problem is we'll NEVER EVER catch lightning in a bottle in FA because the guys we sign literally don't have the talent capable to give us great on field production

You have to take a gamble sometimes.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-25-2017, 02:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But you can not just ignore reality to make it fit your argument.

For every team that got over the hump by signing free agents I can cite one that falied.

I also wish the Bengals would be a little more aggressive in free agency, but you can't just act like there is a simple plan that every team follows to win the super Bowl.  The fact that teams that win the Super Bowl have succesful free agent signings does not make the other facts disappear.  And that includes that fact that lots of team sign free agents to huge contracts that bust. 

How about teams that had a really good roster and could have used that 1 extra upgrade to get over the hump?

[THE PISTONS]

(02-25-2017, 01:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Bodine was given three years to develop.  That is not unreasonable at all.  If you looked at what other teams do instead of just criticizing everything the Bengals do you would realize that it is very rare for a team to cut a draft pick after just 2 seasons.

Rey was never as bad as some fans claimed, but he could have been replaced by now.

Michael Johnson is one of the top 30-35 DEs in the league and is paid accordingly.  We could not replace his production for the same price on the free agent market.

Jones is one of our best CBs.  He was actually one of the top 5 CBs in the league when he signed his current contract after the 15 season.



You must be a very new Bengal fan.  Or else you need to have a talk with Kyle Cook, Deltha Oneal, Rudi Johnson, and Willie Anderson.

PJ Dawson was a 3rd Round pick and cut after 1 season.

The frustrating thing with Bodine is the Bengals draft guys in the 1st Round that they don't play at all except on special teams in year 1. Bodine was a 4th Round pick and they draft him and hand him the starting job.

I wish they would have signed a free agent to compete with him for that starting job. Not even necessarily an Alex Mack...but some free agent to compete.

[fredtoast]

(02-25-2017, 05:25 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. Bengal67 asked "why are they still here". Bodine just completed his 3rd abysmal season and he's still a Bengal, so...

Pretty much no other team in the league has cut players under contract for under performing.  

So Bodine is still here because that is the way the NFL works.

Understand now?

[fredtoast]

(02-25-2017, 04:45 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:  Good teams that add good players in FA though? They generally get better.

Only if you define "good player" with the benefit of hindsight.

Most people here ignore all the bad free agent moves when they claim that it is so simple to get over the hump by signing a "good" free agent.

Redskins signed Josh Norman and got worse.  Texans signed Osweiller and did not improve.  Broncos signed two new starting OTs and got worse.  Cardinals signed Evan Mathis and Tyvon Branch and got a lot worse.

[Bengalholic]

The Bengals free agent approach over the last 14 years hasn't exactly reaped many rewards.  In fact there have been quite a few strikeouts when it comes to signing FA's to multi-year deals. 

With the exception of Marvin's very first FA class (Kelly, Thornton, Powell, Hardy, James) - the results since haven't been very impressive overall:

Bobbie Williams   (3 yr- 5,25m)   The one multi-year signing that paid huge dividends.
Nate Clements (2 yr- 10.5m) Was a valuable pickup and had 2 solid seasons.
Bryan Robinson   (3 yr- 6m)   Was a solid starter and backup for 3 years.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis   (3 yr- 9.25m)   Played 2 years with Bengals, rushing for 1,850 yards.
Dexter Jackson   (4 yr- 7.6m)   Played 26 games in first 2 years, just 3 in his 3rd.
Antwan Odom   (5 yr- 29.5m)   Played 22 games in 3 seasons.
Thomas Howard   (2 yr- 6.5m)   Started 15 games his first year, played just 1 the next year.
Laveranues Coles   (4 yr- 28m)   Played 1 season, catching 43 passes.
Sam Adams   (3 yr deal)   Played 1 year and had 14 tackles.
Kim Herring   (5 yr- 7.8m)   Played 1 year for Bengals, starting 10 games.
James Harrison   (2 yr- 4.45m)   Played 1 year, with 10 starts and 2 sacks.
AJ Hawk   (2 yr- 3.25m)   Played 1 year and had 24 tackles.
Nate Webster   (5 yr- 10.3m)   Played 4 games in 2 years.
Jason Allen   (2 yr- 8.2m)   Played just 4 games and 1 year.
Jamaal Anderson   (2 yr- 5.5m)   Played in just 2 games.
Antonio Bryant   (4 yr- 28m)   Zero games played as a Bengal.
Travelle Wharton   (3 yr- 10m)  Zero games played as a Bengal.
Ben Utecht   (3 yr- 9m)   Zero games played as a Bengal.

For whatever reason, the Bengals have had much better luck signing low risk castoffs/bargains like Pacman, Newman, Dhani, Crocker, Benson, Gilberry...or FA's who can be had for reasonable one year deals like TO, Lawson, LaFell, etc. 

(I didn't include Michael Johnson or Pat Sims because they had previously been a Bengal)

[*SHRacerX*]

(02-26-2017, 02:43 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: The Bengals free agent approach over the last 14 years hasn't exactly reaped many rewards.  In fact there have been quite a few strikeouts when it comes to signing FA's to multi-year deals. 


With the exception of Marvin's very first FA class (Kelly, Thornton, Powell, Hardy, James) - the results since haven't been very impressive overall:

Bobbie Williams   (3 yr- 5,25m)   The one multi-year signing that paid huge dividends.
Bryan Robinson   (3 yr- 6m)   Was a solid starter and backup for 3 years.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis   (3 yr- 9.25m)   Played 2 years with Bengals, rushing for 1,850 yards.
Dexter Jackson   (4 yr- 7.6m)   Played 26 games in first 2 years, just 3 in his 3rd.
Antwan Odom   (5 yr- 29.5m)   Played 22 games in 3 seasons.
Thomas Howard   (2 yr- 6.5m)   Started 15 games his first year, played just 1 the next year.
Laverneous Coles   (4 yr- 28m)   Played 1 season, catching 43 passes.
Sam Adams   (3 yr deal)   Played 1 year and had 14 tackles.
Kim Herring   (5 yr- 7.8m)   Played 1 year for Bengals, starting 10 games.
James Harrison   (2 yr- 4.45m)   Played 1 year, with 10 starts and 2 sacks.
AJ Hawk   (2 yr- 3.25m)   Played 1 year and had 24 tackles.
Nate Webster   (5 yr- 10.3m)   Played 4 games in 2 years.
Jason Allen   (2 yr- 8.2m)   Played just 4 games and 1 year.
Antonio Bryant   (4 yr- 28m)   Zero games played as a Bengal.
Travelle Wharton   (3 yr- 10m)  Zero games played as a Bengal.
Jamal Anderson   (2 yr- 5.5m)   Zero games played as a Bengal.
Ben Utecht   (3 yr- 9m)   Zero games played as a Bengal.

For whatever reason, the Bengals have had much better luck signing low risk castoffs/bargains like Pacman, Newman, Dhani, Crocker, Benson, Gilberry...or FA's who can be had for reasonable one year deals like TO, Lawson, LaFell, etc. 

(I didn't include Michael Johnson or Pat Sims because they had previously been a Bengal)

What a turd fest....on second thought...let's stick with the draft.

Although I would really like the idea of signing Amukamura to replace a jettisoned Adam Jones and Terrelle Pryor to give Andy a vertical threat opposite AJ Green.  

[Bengalholic]

(02-26-2017, 04:06 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: What a turd fest....on second thought...let's stick with the draft.

Although I would really like the idea of signing Amukamura to replace a jettisoned Adam Jones and Terrelle Pryor to give Andy a vertical threat opposite AJ Green.  

Unless the NFL suspends Jones, I doubt he gets cut. 

[bengalhoel]

(02-25-2017, 04:45 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Of course you can cite one that failed. There's 32 teams in the NFL and only one of them can win a SB.

It doesn't change the fact that pretty much everyone who won a SB recently has added some key piece(s) in FA.

Comparing the Browns or Jags experiences in FA to why the Bengals shouldn't participate in FA makes no sense because as I said before, the Browns and Jags already suck, so FA won't fix them. Good teams that add good players in FA though? They generally get better.

Exactly!  Im not saying that he would have signed here, but do the FO and Bengals fans really think that Alex Mack wouldn't have helped? How about signing Dansby  the first time instead of that money stealing James Harrison? 

Just Mike Brown trying to sign someone we need would make everyone happy.  You don't do like Dan Snyder and sign for the sake of signing. You look at your roster , determine the weak spots and see if there is a Good veteran FA to help you get over the hump. 

[Shake n Blake]

(02-26-2017, 11:52 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Pretty much no other team in the league has cut players under contract for under performing.  

So Bodine is still here because that is the way the NFL works.

Understand now?

I'll go ahead and bookmark this and we can come back to it when the season is about to begin and Bodine is our starting Center.

[Shake n Blake]

(02-26-2017, 12:07 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Only if you define "good player" with the benefit of hindsight.

Most people here ignore all the bad free agent moves when they claim that it is so simple to get over the hump by signing a "good" free agent.

Redskins signed Josh Norman and got worse.  Texans signed Osweiller and did not improve.  Broncos signed two new starting OTs and got worse.  Cardinals signed Evan Mathis and Tyvon Branch and got a lot worse.

Did the Redskins and Cardinals get worse because they signed those guys? Or was it some other reason(s)? The Broncos had nowhere to go but down after winning the title (with numerous key FA's that played huge roles).

[Derrick]

(02-25-2017, 01:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Bodine was given three years to develop.  That is not unreasonable at all.  If you looked at what other teams do instead of just criticizing everything the Bengals do you would realize that it is very rare for a team to cut a draft pick after just 2 seasons.

Rey was never as bad as some fans claimed, but he could have been replaced by now.

Michael Johnson is one of the top 30-35 DEs in the league and is paid accordingly.  We could not replace his production for the same price on the free agent market.

Jones is one of our best CBs.  He was actually one of the top 5 CBs in the league when he signed his current contract after the 15 season.


Fred,
You sound just like Mike Brown. Enough! Enough, I say.
You must be a very new Bengal fan.  Or else you need to have a talk with Kyle Cook, Deltha Oneal, Rudi Johnson, and Willie Anderson.

[Housh]

(02-26-2017, 02:43 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: The Bengals free agent approach over the last 14 years hasn't exactly reaped many rewards. In fact there have been quite a few strikeouts when it comes to signing FA's to multi-year deals.

With the exception of Marvin's very first FA class (Kelly, Thornton, Powell, Hardy, James) - the results since haven't been very impressive overall:

Bobbie Williams (3 yr- 5,25m) The one multi-year signing that paid huge dividends.
Bryan Robinson (3 yr- 6m) Was a solid starter and backup for 3 years.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (3 yr- 9.25m) Played 2 years with Bengals, rushing for 1,850 yards.
Dexter Jackson (4 yr- 7.6m) Played 26 games in first 2 years, just 3 in his 3rd.
Antwan Odom (5 yr- 29.5m) Played 22 games in 3 seasons.
Thomas Howard (2 yr- 6.5m) Started 15 games his first year, played just 1 the next year.
Laverneous Coles (4 yr- 28m) Played 1 season, catching 43 passes.
Sam Adams (3 yr deal) Played 1 year and had 14 tackles.
Kim Herring (5 yr- 7.8m) Played 1 year for Bengals, starting 10 games.
James Harrison (2 yr- 4.45m) Played 1 year, with 10 starts and 2 sacks.
AJ Hawk (2 yr- 3.25m) Played 1 year and had 24 tackles.
Nate Webster (5 yr- 10.3m) Played 4 games in 2 years.
Jason Allen (2 yr- 8.2m) Played just 4 games and 1 year.
Antonio Bryant (4 yr- 28m) Zero games played as a Bengal.
Travelle Wharton (3 yr- 10m) Zero games played as a Bengal.
Jamal Anderson (2 yr- 5.5m) Zero games played as a Bengal.
Ben Utecht (3 yr- 9m) Zero games played as a Bengal.

For whatever reason, the Bengals have had much better luck signing low risk castoffs/bargains like Pacman, Newman, Dhani, Crocker, Benson, Gilberry...or FA's who can be had for reasonable one year deals like TO, Lawson, LaFell, etc.

(I didn't include Michael Johnson or Pat Sims because they had previously been a Bengal)

Jesus Christ was anyone on that list in their prime when they came here? Just Odom and Antonio Bryant? I cant remember

[Whatever]

(02-26-2017, 11:59 PM)Housh Wrote: Jesus Christ was anyone on that list in their prime when they came here? Just Odom and Antonio Bryant? I cant remember

The Law Firm signed here entering his 5th season.  Thomas Howard was entering his 6th.  Nate Webster was entering year 5.  Jason Allen was entering year 7.  Herring was entering year 8. Wharton was entering year 8.  Utecht was entering year 5.  A lot of these guys, you would think, would have a decent amount of tread on the tires.