Footballoutsiders on Burkhead

[fredtoast]

Footballoutsiders uses some complex mathmatics to compare RBs.  They try to do things like give more value to a 4 yard run on 3rd and 3 than on 1st and 20.  They also adjust for game situation and opponent defense.  You can follow the links to get the full explanation (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb), but basically they come up with metrics called DYAR, that they claim measures a RBs "total value", and DVOA which measures "value per play".

Among the 42 RBs with at least 100 carries Ezekial Elliot was #1 in DYAR (340) and the Bills Mike Gillislee was #1 in DVOA (45.0%).

Burkehead only had 74 carries so he did not qualify among their "league leaders", but his DYAR (163) would have ranked 12th, and his DVOA (41.9) would have been second only to Gillislee.  You could agrue that Gillislee's 101 carries is not really that different from Burkehead's 74, but they have to draw the line somewhere.  The fact is that not many RBs have a lot of carries anymore.  There are 32 teams and only 25 RBs who had at least 160 carries (10 per game) last year.  That is why some people claim the position is losing value in the draft.

Interesting to note that among those RBs with at least 160 carries Gillislee's teammate LeSean McCoy was a run away winner in DVOA (28.1%) over 10 percentage points ahead of LeVean Bell (17.4%).  So Gillislee's numbers could be due to an elite system/scheme/O-line.

[*Go Cards*]

(04-02-2017, 12:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Footballoutsiders uses some complex mathmatics to compare a RB.  They try to do things like give more value to a 4 yard run on 3rd and 3 than on 1st and 20.  They also adjust for game situation and opponent defense.  You can follow the links to get the full explanation (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb), but basically they come up with metrics called DYAR, that they claim measures a RBs "total value", and DVOA which measures "value per play".

Among the 42 RBs with at least 100 carries Ezekial Elliot was #1 in DYAR (340) and the Bills Mike Gillislee was #1 in DVOA (45.0%).

Burkehead only had 74 carries so he did not qualify among their "league leaders", but his DYAR (163) would have ranked 12th, and his DVOA (41.9) would have been second only to Gillislee.  You could agrue that Gillislee's 101 carries is not really that different from Burkehead's 74, but they have to draw the line somewhere.  The fact is that not many RBs have many carries anymore.  There are 32 teams and only 25 RBs who had at least 160 carries (10 per game) last year.

Interesting to noate that among those RBs with at least 160 carries Gillislee's teammate LeSean McCoy was a run away winner in DVOA (28.1%) over 10 percentage points ahead of LeVean Bell (17.4%).  So Gillislee's numbers could be due to an elite system/scheme/O-line.

Should have never let that kid get away. Class guy and solid all around player.

Maybe if he would have only committed some sort of thuggery he would still be playing here. 

[BURROWorBUST]

He'll be the next former Bengal to get a ring. On the other hand, we'll forget all about him (and Hill) if we draft Fournette or Mixon.

[HarleyDog]

The only way to right this wrong is to get rid of Hill. If they don't, I will have anger the equivalency to road rage everytime I see him carry the ball, try to juke and get stuffed at the LOS. Piss poor RB.

[magikod]

If we draft Dixon, we won't be remembering Burkhead much longer.

[Sled21]

I've said it before, Burkhead will shine in new England...

[Atomic Orange]

I miss the 50/50 run/pass game. All those great RB's we use to see..

Thanks Peyton and Roger.

[Sabretooth]

(04-02-2017, 01:09 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: The only way to right this wrong is to get rid of Hill. If they don't, I will have anger the equivalency to road rage everytime I see him carry the ball, try to juke and get stuffed at the LOS. Piss poor RB.

Hilll is under the delusion that he is a speed merchant and can make defenders miss him in close quarters( like Barry   Sanders used to). Perhaps in our practices he can make our defenders miss, but in NFL games its' a different story. :andy:

[Gohards]

my god, you guys just cant get over this kid can you?

The kid has 2 rushing touchdowns and 2 fumbles in his pro career, and if you look at these boards you would think we just got rid of adrian Peterson.

Let it go. Hill is our back for now. That could change with the draft, but even if we draft a rb i still see Hill starting over a rookie.

Burkhead may be good in NE, but who knows. They have blount (i think, still), dion Lewis, and james white.

Burkhead will be where he belongs, 3rd or 4th stringer.


Edit: The patriots are also meeting with AP tomorrow

[magikod]

(04-02-2017, 06:55 PM)Gohards Wrote: my god, you guys just cant get over this kid can you?

The kid has 2 rushing touchdowns and 2 fumbles in his pro career, and if you look at these boards you would think we just got rid of adrian Peterson.

Let it go. Hill is our back for now. That could change with the draft, but even if we draft a rb i still see Hill starting over a rookie.

Burkhead may be good in NE, but who knows. They have blount (i think, still), dion Lewis, and james white.

Burkhead will be where he belongs, 3rd or 4th stringer.


Edit: The patriots are also meeting with AP tomorrow

AP on the patriots, wow that would be unfair 

[Shake n Blake]

1. Burkhead will look great in NE, but that doesn't mean he would've been great here.
2. We need a different RB, but I'm not sure how much it will matter with this line.
3. I don't think RBs are being devalued much. There's been maybe 1 or 2 years where a RB wasn't taken in round 1 over the last 50 drafts or so. It just depends on the talent. At least 2 RBs will be taken at the top of this draft. Maybe even in the top 10.

[HarleyDog]

(04-02-2017, 06:55 PM)Gohards Wrote: my god, you guys just cant get over this kid can you?

The kid has 2 rushing touchdowns and 2 fumbles in his pro career, and if you look at these boards you would think we just got rid of adrian Peterson.

Let it go. Hill is our back for now. That could change with the draft, but even if we draft a rb i still see Hill starting over a rookie.

Burkhead may be good in NE, but who knows. They have blount (i think, still), dion Lewis, and james white.

Burkhead will be where he belongs, 3rd or 4th stringer.


Edit: The patriots are also meeting with AP tomorrow

AP is done. RB is the man and he will show the organization they were wrong. Also, NO. I cannot get over letting him go. Just like I can't get over a lot of things this MM organization does. I don't know why I'm dedicated like this? Wait, yes I do, Im a glutton for misery and deep down they provide me the inner pain I so longingly need, while letting me complain about it. Although, now that I explain it that way, sounds like some S&M. Maybe I'm getting my pain from the wrong source? I've never tried electrical shock to my nads and whips of leather on my skin. However, it cant hurt worse than this? This team is giving me dry eye.

Hell, I don't know what I just said either. I've been drinking and I thought it was hilariously funny. Drink a few beers and then let me know what you think? LOL.

[treee]

Eh this org has a habit of keeping RBs a year or two past their prime. We'll see if the trend continues.

Sent from my LG-H830 using Tapatalk

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-02-2017, 08:33 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: AP is done. RB is the man and he will show the organization they were wrong. Also, NO. I cannot get over letting him go. Just like I can't get over a lot of things this MM organization does. I don't know why I'm dedicated like this? Wait, yes I do, Im a glutton for misery and deep down they provide me the inner pain I so longingly need, while letting me complain about it. Although, now that I explain it that way, sounds like some S&M. Maybe I'm getting my pain from the wrong source? I've never tried electrical shock to my nads and whips of leather on my skin. However, it cant hurt worse than this? This team is giving me dry eye.

Hell, I don't know what I just said either. I've been drinking and I thought it was hilariously funny. Drink a few beers and then let me know what you think? LOL.

Made me lmao

Seriously, just watch what Burkhead does in New England.

He will be amazing on that team, they know how to use players the way they were meant to be used.

Our coaches don't have a clue how to do this. Atleast the majority of them.

Urban, Simmons and Guenther are pretty good.

[Murdock2420]

(04-02-2017, 08:33 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: AP is done. RB is the man and he will show the organization they were wrong. Also, NO. I cannot get over letting him go. Just like I can't get over a lot of things this MM organization does. I don't know why I'm dedicated like this? Wait, yes I do, Im a glutton for misery and deep down they provide me the inner pain I so longingly need, while letting me complain about it. Although, now that I explain it that way, sounds like some S&M. Maybe I'm getting my pain from the wrong source? I've never tried electrical shock to my nads and whips of leather on my skin. However, it cant hurt worse than this? This team is giving me dry eye.

Hell, I don't know what I just said either. I've been drinking and I thought it was hilariously funny. Drink a few beers and then let me know what you think? LOL.

If they sign AP and cut Burkhead during camp (which is possible with their depth) will you get over letting him go then? 

The guy was gritty but there is no proof that he can sustain any level of success over a full season. 

[*bengalfan74*]

Just wait and see, Burkhead will shine in NE !

No he's probably not gonna be a "bellcow" with 325 carries for 1,500 yards and 10 TD's. And he probably won't have 70 receptions for 875 yards with 9 TD's either.

But like Shake and others say the Pats will use him correctly and he'll be a fairly big part of their O down the line. I can easily see him having 1,000 combined yards and 6 or 8 TD's, or even more ?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-02-2017, 10:12 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: If they sign AP and cut Burkhead during camp (which is possible with their depth) will you get over letting him go then? 

The guy was gritty but there is no proof that he can sustain any level of success over a full season. 

AP was great in his time but he has never been great at catching the ball out of the backfield.

Rex has great hands. The Patriots will make the right decision you can pretty much put that down on paper.

They love RB's that can catch the ball out of the backfield and Burkhead has WR hands and is quick.

[Murdock2420]

(04-02-2017, 10:30 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: AP was great in his time but he has never been great at catching the ball out of the backfield.

Rex has great hands. The Patriots will make the right decision you can pretty much put that down on paper.

They love RB's that can catch the ball out of the backfield and Burkhead has WR hands and is quick.

True, but they have two of them already in James White and Dion Lewis. I really don't see Burkhead getting much more work there then he had here, the difference being if he makes the roster there he'll have a real chance a ring.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-02-2017, 10:39 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: True, but they have two of them already in James White and Dion Lewis. I really don't see Burkhead getting much more work there then he had here, the difference being if he makes the roster there he'll have a real chance a ring.

I heard that Rex is their highest paid RB though.

I highly doubt they cut him, but if they do i hope we are the first to pick him up. He impressed me in that Ravens game.

Been a long time since i have seen a Bengals RB run that hard.

You can have all the talent in the world but wanting it more in the end is what matters.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-02-2017, 10:39 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: True, but they have two of them already in James White and Dion Lewis. I really don't see Burkhead getting much more work there then he had here, the difference being if he makes the roster there he'll have a real chance a ring.

True, but the hoodie will reward a man that puts his nose to the grindstone and gets the job done. And I can see Burkhead doing just that there. It wouldn't at all shock me if Rex makes the team and someone else doesn't.