Footballoutsiders on Burkhead

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

BTW, sorry to be a dick but Fred, don't you know how to spell Burkhead?

Remember you giving guys a lot of crap for not spelling Ogbuehi correctly.

[fredtoast]

(04-02-2017, 10:55 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Remember you giving guys a lot of crap for not spelling Ogbuehi correctly.

I gave people a lot of crap for not even trying to learn how to spell Ogbuehi.

[WeezyBengal]

(04-02-2017, 12:24 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Should have never let that kid get away. Class guy and solid all around player.

Maybe if he would have only committed some sort of thuggery he would still be playing here. 

We let guys like Burkhead leave but then keep guys like Pacman on the team. And people wonder why we havent won a playoff game in 26 years... 

[WeezyBengal]

(04-02-2017, 12:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Footballoutsiders uses some complex mathmatics to compare RBs.  They try to do things like give more value to a 4 yard run on 3rd and 3 than on 1st and 20.  They also adjust for game situation and opponent defense.  You can follow the links to get the full explanation (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb), but basically they come up with metrics called DYAR, that they claim measures a RBs "total value", and DVOA which measures "value per play".

Among the 42 RBs with at least 100 carries Ezekial Elliot was #1 in DYAR (340) and the Bills Mike Gillislee was #1 in DVOA (45.0%).

Burkehead only had 74 carries so he did not qualify among their "league leaders", but his DYAR (163) would have ranked 12th, and his DVOA (41.9) would have been second only to Gillislee.  You could agrue that Gillislee's 101 carries is not really that different from Burkehead's 74, but they have to draw the line somewhere.  The fact is that not many RBs have a lot of carries anymore.  There are 32 teams and only 25 RBs who had at least 160 carries (10 per game) last year.  That is why some people claim the position is losing value in the draft.

Interesting to note that among those RBs with at least 160 carries Gillislee's teammate LeSean McCoy was a run away winner in DVOA (28.1%) over 10 percentage points ahead of LeVean Bell (17.4%).  So Gillislee's numbers could be due to an elite system/scheme/O-line.

I find this wildly ironic coming from the guy that continues to defend Hill and who used to bash Burkhead. 

You mad fun of Bengals fans CONSTANTLY for wanting to keep Burkhead based on his limited production. 

[WeezyBengal]

(04-02-2017, 06:55 PM)Gohards Wrote: my god, you guys just cant get over this kid can you?

The kid has 2 rushing touchdowns and 2 fumbles in his pro career, and if you look at these boards you would think we just got rid of adrian Peterson.

Let it go. Hill is our back for now. That could change with the draft, but even if we draft a rb i still see Hill starting over a rookie.

Burkhead may be good in NE, but who knows. They have blount (i think, still), dion Lewis, and james white.

Burkhead will be where he belongs, 3rd or 4th stringer.


Edit: The patriots are also meeting with AP tomorrow

You are judging how good someone is based on their rushing touchdowns and fumbles? Man, im glad youre not our GM. 

[Gohards]

(04-03-2017, 09:26 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: You are judging how good someone is based on their rushing touchdowns and fumbles? Man, im glad youre not our GM. 

Oh, sorry. I forgot about his grand total of 375 career yards.

Did someone just compare AP to burkhead and say that AP doesnt have hands like burkhead??

Youre kidding me right? Dont ever disrespect a future HOFer by comparing him to a nobody.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-02-2017, 10:26 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Just wait and see, Burkhead will shine in NE !

No he's probably not gonna be a "bellcow" with 325 carries for 1,500 yards and 10 TD's. And he probably won't have 70 receptions for 875 yards with 9 TD's either.

But like Shake and others say the Pats will use him correctly and he'll be a fairly big part of their O down the line. I can easily see him having 1,000 combined yards and 6 or 8 TD's, or even more ?

I see that as a realistic ceiling. I was thinking of them using him like a bigger version of Danny Woodhead. 

(04-03-2017, 11:07 AM)Gohards Wrote: Oh, sorry. I forgot about his grand total of 375 career yards.

Did someone just compare AP to burkhead and say that AP doesnt have hands like burkhead??

Youre kidding me right? Dont ever disrespect a future HOFer by comparing him to a nobody.

Yeah when people make these grand claims about Burkhead, they need to realize we're talking about a guy that's played 1 really good game. It's just as possible that he remains buried on NE's depth chart. They still have Dion Lewis and I kinda feel Burkhead will be to him what Martellus Bennett was to Gronk last year. Insurance for an oft-injured key piece of the offense. 

In fact, the more I think about it, the more sure I am that's exactly why NE signed Burkhead. Rex didn't play last year until Gio went down, and he filled the Gio role pretty well. Of course, Dion Lewis always gets hurt, so I'm pretty sure Rex will get a shot.

[CageTheBengal]

(04-02-2017, 12:24 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Should have never let that kid get away. Class guy and solid all around player.

Maybe if he would have only committed some sort of thuggery he would still be playing here. 

But Jeremy Hill did something for us for half a season 2 years ago.

But let's focus all of our energy on trying to re-capture the magic instead of keeping someone who is currently better. Marvin's got time.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-03-2017, 11:07 AM)Gohards Wrote: Oh, sorry. I forgot about his grand total of 375 career yards.

Did someone just compare AP to burkhead and say that AP doesnt have hands like burkhead??

Youre kidding me right? Dont ever disrespect a future HOFer by comparing him to a nobody.

Burkhead has WR hands if you know even a shred about the guy. I have never even seen him drop a ball.

Makes great catches that AP couldn't do in his prime.

Like i said, AP was a great RB in his prime but catching the ball out of the backfield wasn't his strength.

Have to compare RB's strengths and weaknesses and it this point in AP's career it is fair.

This is no disrespect to AP, he was one of the best RB's of all time, but there is a reason why he was cut and hasn't found a new team yet.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-03-2017, 12:07 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Burkhead has WR hands if you know even a shred about the guy. I have never even seen him drop a ball.

Makes great catches that AP couldn't do in his prime.

Like i said, AP was a great RB in his prime but catching the ball out of the backfield wasn't his strength.

Have to compare RB's strengths and weaknesses and it this point in AP's career it is fair.

This is no disrespect to AP, he was one of the best RB's of all time, but there is a reason why he was cut and hasn't found a new team yet.

AP has probably fallen off some, but make no mistake, he will be with a team in 2017. He'd be signed right now if he'd lower his standards and contract expectations. Instead, he's being selective by looking to sign with a SB contender for good money. That might not happen, and if it does, he may have to wait awhile. I think Rex has solid hands, but saying catching wasn't a strength for AP is relative. AP has 244 career receptions, averaging 31 catches per 16 games played. Burkhead has 34 career catches. Take from that what you will. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-03-2017, 12:30 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: AP has probably fallen off some, but make no mistake, he will be with a team in 2017. He'd be signed right now if he'd lower his standards and contract expectations. Instead, he's being selective by looking to sign with a SB contender for good money. That might not happen, and if it does, he may have to wait awhile. I think Rex has solid hands, but saying catching wasn't a strength for AP is relative. AP has 244 career receptions, averaging 31 catches per 16 games played. Burkhead has 34 career catches. Take from that what you will. 

Nice post, i cannot argue with the facts.

Just don't understand someone saying Burkhead is not a good receiver out of the backfield.

This is exactly the type of player the Patriots turn into studs.

Plus i could be wrong but i don't see AP fitting in in New England myself. We will see.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-03-2017, 12:37 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Nice post, i cannot argue with the facts.

Just don't understand someone saying Burkhead is not a good receiver out of the backfield.

This is exactly the type of player the Patriots turn into studs.

Plus i could be wrong but i don't see AP fitting in in New England myself. We will see.

I don't either, frankly. Mainly because Belichick loathes fumbling, and AP is a guy that has fumbled quite a bit through his career. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-03-2017, 12:57 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I don't either, frankly. Mainly because Belichick loathes fumbling, and AP is a guy that has fumbled quite a bit through his career. 

Yep.

[McC]

(04-02-2017, 10:12 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: If they sign AP and cut Burkhead during camp (which is possible with their depth) will you get over letting him go then? 

The guy was gritty but there is no proof that he can sustain any level of success over a full season. 

Just like there's no proof that he can't.  But some people just assume it, based on nothing.

[McC]

(04-03-2017, 11:07 AM)Gohards Wrote: Oh, sorry. I forgot about his grand total of 375 career yards.

Did someone just compare AP to burkhead and say that AP doesnt have hands like burkhead??

Youre kidding me right? Dont ever disrespect a future HOFer by comparing him to a nobody.

Why you got a problem with Burkhead?  It's not his fault he didn't get the ball more.  All he ever did was produce when he got the chance.

[grampahol]

I'm over Burkhead .. I am always over any player who opts to sign with another team. Coaches fall in the same category as well.
Once they are no longer on the teams I root for I really don't care what they do with their new team.
I've never understood why someone can be a fan of this team (or any team) and get all giddy for another team when a player opts  to leave. 
I'm a Bengals fan, not a fan of every other team that signs one of our former players. 
I'm just stubborn that way. 
Hell, for that matter I don't even wish them well. I hope they all have terrible seasons until or unless they come back. 

[OrlandoBengal]

(04-03-2017, 12:57 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I don't either, frankly. Mainly because Belichick loathes fumbling, and AP is a guy that has fumbled quite a bit through his career. 

I don't think Peterson fits in New England.  They don't have the "bruiser" back on their roster right now, but I think they bring back Blount.  He and Brady are supposed to get along well, he has had his most success there, and has been on the market long enough to know he's not going to get a big contract somewhere else.  My guess is that he ends up back in Foxboro sooner than later.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-04-2017, 10:42 AM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: I don't think Peterson fits in New England.  They don't have the "bruiser" back on their roster right now, but I think they bring back Blount.  He and Brady are supposed to get along well, he has had his most success there, and has been on the market long enough to know he's not going to get a big contract somewhere else.  My guess is that he ends up back in Foxboro sooner than later.

That is a good guess..

[Shake n Blake]

Agreed, Orlando. In fact, I'd say that bringing in AP for a visit was just a way of putting pressure on Blount to hurry up and get a contract done.

He had 18 TDs last year, so I imagine the Pats want him back.

[OrlandoBengal]

(04-04-2017, 12:56 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Agreed, Orlando. In fact, I'd say that bringing in AP for a visit was just a way of putting pressure on Blount to hurry up and get a contract done.

He had 18 TDs last year, so I imagine the Pats want him back.

I was sick yesterday, so watched a ton of television.  Schefter said the exact same thing.  Said that Blount has been on vacation, but got back over the weekend and should now be focused on getting a deal done.