Good Draft vs Bad Draft

[THE PISTONS]

I've noticed over the years that no matter who a team drafts...their fanbase generally feels like it is a good draft...unless a team passes on a popular local player.

Fans generally will say: My teams needs these positions, and if a team drafts those position guys...fans like it. They then project these players out to be starters. 7 new starters within the next 3 years!

The sad reality of the draft is that most of the guys you draft will be special teamers or out of the league within 3-4 years. You're lucky to get 2 solid starters. If you draft 3 solid starters, it was a really good draft. If you draft 4 starters it was a great draft. If you end up with multiple Pro Bowl players in one draft it was a generational draft.

I saw a stat that some 40% of 1st Round picks never go on to be a starter.

Another reality is that a lot of these guys may go against Pro-caliber competition in college maybe twice a year...so it's very hard to project out how they'll do in the Pros.

If drafting were as easy as selecting who Mel Kiper Jr had ranked the highest...then every team would be loaded...

Drafts represent hope for a fanbase...but if you look at the hit rate of a draft pick vs a free agent....the free agent with a track record probably makes it more on a percentage basis than a draft pick...

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

The truth, the draft is a crapshoot which i think sometimes frustrates us Bengal fans when the FO always
says they build through the draft. That is all fine and dandy but getting a proven player in the NFL helps
your team out immediately most of the time if he fits and stays healthy.

Which is why i liked the Minter signing so much, just wish it was a multi year contract.

We had a great draft when we drafted AJ Green and Andy Dalton, that is for sure.

[Au165]

General fan logic on a good vs bad draft...

Good draft, team drafts guys I like. Bad draft, team drafts guys I don't like or have never heard of.

Seriously though, a draft can't be judged right after it's done. There are things happening in a building that influence a draft that we the fans do not know about. Maybe it is injuries, personal issues, or contract impasses. You just have to trust that the front office is taking the guys that they feel they need to be successful.

[THE PISTONS]

(04-20-2017, 02:17 PM)Au165 Wrote: General fan logic on a good vs bad draft...

Good draft, team drafts guys I like. Bad draft, team drafts guys I don't like or have never heard of.

Seriously though, a draft can't be judged right after it's done. There are things happening in a building that influence a draft that we the fans do not know about. Maybe it is injuries, personal issues, or contract impasses. You just have to trust that the front office is taking the guys that they feel they need to be successful.

The name recognition is a HUGE part of what fans like.

When you get to Rounds 5-6-7...that unknown guy from the small school may have a higher upside than the guy with name recognition from a big school that is limited.

The scheme that the Pro teams runs is a big determinant of success too. Does the guy fit the system. Some CB's are good man-to-man corners yet we play a Zone scheme here mainly. Kirkpatrick is more suited to man coverage for instance and you see it took him several years to be ready.

[Luvnit2]

(04-20-2017, 02:02 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: The truth, the draft is a crapshoot which i think sometimes frustrates us Bengal fans when the FO always
says they build through the draft. That is all fine and dandy but getting a proven player in the NFL helps
your team out immediately most of the time if he fits and stays healthy.

Which is why i liked the Minter signing so much, just wish it was a multi year contract.

We had a great draft when we drafted AJ Green and Andy Dalton, that is for sure.

The draft became much more valuable after the new CBA which cut rookies salaries 100%. Teams were paying veteran wages for unproven rookies, thus paying rookies a lot more and veterans a less prior to 2011. So FA costs escalated and 2nd contracts. Balance is needed with rookies (young) and vets on 2nd and 3rd year contracts to maintain a solid roster and also meet cap demands

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-20-2017, 04:09 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: The draft became much more valuable after the new CBA which cut rookies salaries 100%. Teams were paying veteran wages for unproven rookies, thus paying rookies a lot more and veterans a less prior to 2011. So FA costs escalated and 2nd contracts. Balance is needed with rookies (young) and vets on 2nd and 3rd year contracts to maintain a solid roster and also meet cap demands

Very true as well which makes it easier for fans to claim MB is cheap lol

[Derrick]

(04-20-2017, 02:02 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: The truth, the draft is a crapshoot which i think sometimes frustrates us Bengal fans when the FO always
says they build through the draft. That is all fine and dandy but getting a proven player in the NFL helps
your team out immediately most of the time if he fits and stays healthy.

Which is why i liked the Minter signing so much, just wish it was a multi year contract.

We had a great draft when we drafted AJ Green and Andy Dalton, that is for sure.

Actually most, if not all, players drafted are generally unknown to me. Yes, I read a lot about prospects, etc. on CincyJungle, but never have a strong opinion about one player versus another. Therefore, my evaluation of the Bengals' drafts are well after the fact. And, the past few drafts have turned out to be stinkers for the most part.

The team needs to strike gold in this 2017 draft. Unless something/somebody changes, I have my doubts that they will.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-20-2017, 05:48 PM)Derrick Wrote: Actually most, if not all, players drafted are generally unknown to me. Yes, I read a lot about prospects, etc. on CincyJungle, but never have a strong opinion about one player versus another. Therefore, my evaluation of the Bengals' drafts are well after the fact. And, the past few drafts have turned out to be stinkers for the most part.

The team needs to strike gold in this 2017 draft. Unless something/somebody changes, I have my doubts that they will.

I getcha man. But to be fair losing both WJ3 and Billings to season ending injury before the season started really
hurt last years draft stock. I bet getting these two back will really help us this year and if we can add one or two
more immediate impact players this draft we could be looking at the Playoffs again, especially with this schedule.

[XenoMorph]

(04-20-2017, 01:31 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I've noticed over the years that no matter who a team drafts...their fanbase generally feels like it is a good draft...unless a team passes on a popular local player.

Fans generally will say: My teams needs these positions, and if a team drafts those position guys...fans like it. They then project these players out to be starters. 7 new starters within the next 3 years!

The sad reality of the draft is that most of the guys you draft will be special teamers or out of the league within 3-4 years. You're lucky to get 2 solid starters. If you draft 3 solid starters, it was a really good draft. If you draft 4 starters it was a great draft. If you end up with multiple Pro Bowl players in one draft it was a generational draft.

I saw a stat that some 40% of 1st Round picks never go on to be a starter.

Another reality is that a lot of these guys may go against Pro-caliber competition in college maybe twice a year...so it's very hard to project out how they'll do in the Pros.

If drafting were as easy as selecting who Mel Kiper Jr had ranked the highest...then every team would be loaded...

Drafts represent hope for a fanbase...but if you look at the hit rate of a draft pick vs a free agent....the free agent with a track record probably makes it more on a percentage basis than a draft pick...

when a draft is just concluding all we have is the potential of those players to be excited about and we talk about their potential futures with the team.  Some are of course the greatest things ever and others just fan favorites cause they nice guys or because we have long been conditioned to root for the underdog. lol

[*Go Cards*]

(04-20-2017, 02:02 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: The truth, the draft is a crapshoot which i think sometimes frustrates us Bengal fans when the FO always
says they build through the draft. That is all fine and dandy but getting a proven player in the NFL helps
your team out immediately most of the time if he fits and stays healthy.

Which is why i liked the Minter signing so much, just wish it was a multi year contract.

We had a great draft when we drafted AJ Green and Andy Dalton, that is for sure.

AJ, Dalton, and Clint Boling. 

That was a great draft class. 

[fredtoast]

No one wants to admit what a total crapshoot the draft is because they all want to claim that they can pick the best players. This is why I am always against giving up picks in order to move up in the draft. I think the best way to improve your chances of getting a good player is to have the most picks. That does not mean I would give up the #9 pick for two or three 7th round picks, but my general draft trade strategy would be to get the most picks possible in the first three rounds.

[BengalHawk62]

(04-21-2017, 02:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No one wants to admit what a total crapshoot the draft is because they all want to claim that they can pick the best players.  This is why I am always against giving up picks in order to move up in the draft.  I think the best way to improve your chances of getting a good player is to have the most picks.  That does not mean I would give up the #9 pick for two or three 7th round picks, but my general draft trade strategy would be to get the most picks possible in the first three rounds.

This^^^

And always draft an offensive lineman in every draft within the first three rounds. 

[*jason*]

(04-21-2017, 12:10 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I getcha man. But to be fair losing both WJ3 and Billings to season ending injury before the season started really
hurt last years draft stock. I bet getting these two back will really help us this year and if we can add one or two
more immediate impact players this draft we could be looking at the Playoffs again, especially with this schedule.

We may look back at last year's draft as a great one. If Jackson pans out, Billings is what you and I think, and Boyd keeps developing... That's 3 solid starters right there. Nick Vigil looked ok when he got his shots too.

Today in 2001, the Bengals drafted Justin Smith and Chad Johnson...

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-21-2017, 01:44 PM)Go Cards Wrote: AJ, Dalton, and Clint Boling. 

That was a great draft class. 

Forgot that Boling was in that draft, yeah, great.

(04-21-2017, 03:01 PM)jason Wrote: We may look back at last year's draft as a great one. If Jackson pans out, Billings is what you and I think, and Boyd keeps developing... That's 3 solid starters right there. Nick Vigil looked ok when he got his shots too.

Today in 2001, the Bengals drafted Justin Smith and Chad Johnson...

Don't forget Cody Core either who i believe has a much higher ceiling than Boyd.

Urban could coach Core into something very special with his size, speed and physicality.

[THE PISTONS]

(04-21-2017, 03:47 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Forgot that Boling was in that draft, yeah, great.


Don't forget Cody Core either who i believe has a much higher ceiling than Boyd.

Urban could coach Core into something very special with his size, speed and physicality.

The funny thing was that Boling was pretty bad for 2-3 years...then he improved right before his contract was up. Kind of gives some hope for Ced and Bodine.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(04-21-2017, 04:12 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The funny thing was that Boling was pretty bad for 2-3 years...then he improved right before his contract was up. Kind of gives some hope for Ced and Bodine.

Not quite.

Boling had one bad Year: His first, when he played out of position at RG since Bobbie was hurt.

Since he started full time in 2012, he's been a top 5 LG every year, save for maybe last year (which I don't blame him for).

[redwood]

(04-20-2017, 01:31 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I've noticed over the years that no matter who a team drafts...their fanbase generally feels like it is a good draft...unless a team passes on a popular local player.

Fans generally will say: My teams needs these positions, and if a team drafts those position guys...fans like it. They then project these players out to be starters. 7 new starters within the next 3 years!

The sad reality of the draft is that most of the guys you draft will be special teamers or out of the league within 3-4 years. You're lucky to get 2 solid starters. If you draft 3 solid starters, it was a really good draft. If you draft 4 starters it was a great draft. If you end up with multiple Pro Bowl players in one draft it was a generational draft.

I saw a stat that some 40% of 1st Round picks never go on to be a starter.

Another reality is that a lot of these guys may go against Pro-caliber competition in college maybe twice a year...so it's very hard to project out how they'll do in the Pros.

If drafting were as easy as selecting who Mel Kiper Jr had ranked the highest...then every team would be loaded...

Drafts represent hope for a fanbase...but if you look at the hit rate of a draft pick vs a free agent....the free agent with a track record probably makes it more on a percentage basis than a draft pick...

i was out west when Bill Walsh drafts and strategy turned a below par niner team into a dynasty.  He  was TYPICALLY getting 3-5 very good starters in every draft.  Then too.. you need to DEVELOP that raw material.  

In rd 2-5 he got Joe Montana, Charles Haley,Roger Craig, Guy McIntyre, Michael Carter,Jeff Fuller, Dwight Hicks,Brent Jones, John Taylor,Keena Turner,Dwain Board, and  maybe 3-4 guys I'll think of later.   Several of those were  IMPACT but at a SMALL School.   Others were GOOD prospects but..... the Niners coached them up to be STARS.

ANY great team is built on VISION, development,strategy... and some luck.   the Big red Machine was all that.
They found Rose,Bench Griffey. Traded for Foster,Morgan ,Billingham.  Developed pitchers.   Big Klu made "average" guys good hitters.   GSW....they drafted Curry,Klay,Dray without a top 5 pick then hired a guy who'd never been a coach. It worked.

You need VISION.   I remember being VERY happy the Niners got Joe Montana.  Then, later, Jerry Rice.   You can WASTE  real solid talent.

[redwood]

(04-20-2017, 05:48 PM)Derrick Wrote: Actually most, if not all, players drafted are generally unknown to me. Yes, I read a lot about prospects, etc. on CincyJungle, but never have a strong opinion about one player versus another. Therefore, my evaluation of the Bengals' drafts are well after the fact. And, the past few drafts have turned out to be stinkers for the most part.

The team needs to strike gold in this 2017 draft. Unless something/somebody changes, I have my doubts that they will.

10-20 yr ago I was a draft nut and I  had a good sense of who i wanted and it often was on the money. Now? I  don't have the time to hunt down and watch the college guys.  I TRUST the eyeball more than the mocks.  Nowadays I don't  watch a bunch of games based on possible draft picks.  However, if that was the JOB, then.. the thing is to see SOME unique talent.

Joe Montana?   I WATCHED and the coach thought another guy was bigger,had the cannon arm, but Joe would come in and WIN when the other dude failed. He had MAGIC.  i KNEW he'd shine as a pro.  Bill Walsh got him and made that magic work.

[GreenCornBengal]

You can decide good or bad draft on draft day by evaluating the depth chart and seeing if we filled positions of need so that we are ready for camp.

True worth of a draft can't be determined until at least 5 years after the fact though.

[TKUHL]

(04-21-2017, 02:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No one wants to admit what a total crapshoot the draft is because they all want to claim that they can pick the best players.  This is why I am always against giving up picks in order to move up in the draft.  I think the best way to improve your chances of getting a good player is to have the most picks.  That does not mean I would give up the #9 pick for two or three 7th round picks, but my general draft trade strategy would be to get the most picks possible in the first three rounds.

Fred, I caught hell for this logic. I suggested trying to get more picks via AJ trade, trade back however yet was told we have enough picks. I dont think there is such a thing as too many picks. Its a crap shoot, a lottery, the more chances you have the better your odds. Also various other reasons such as having collateral to maneuver or just having more picks to increase your odds on players you want being there. We will continue to pick up players after the draft anyway and even then guys we want will go somewhere else since they can decide where they want to go if multiple teams want them.