Vegas odds are pretty telling

[Shake n Blake]

Not sure how much you can read into what Vegas thinks, but I found this interesting. The Bengals are projected to win 8.5 games which is tied for 14th best in the league, but our Super Bowl odds are 60/1, which is tied for 23rd with the Redskins. All of the other 5 teams projected to win 8.5 games have better SB odds than the Bengals, and 5 of the 13 teams projected to win fewer games also have better SB odds.

Make of that what you will.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/1/15498624/2017-nfl-over-under-win-totals-cowboys-projected-win-nfc-east-giants-eagles-redskins
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/7/15571864/post-draft-super-bowl-odds-vegas-has-cowboys-with-third-best-odds-patriots-raiders

[ItsOdellThurman]

History is baked into that. And can you disagree? Even if the Bengals win the AFC North and win say, 10 or 11 games, what are the odds they get home field? In the 7 playoff appearances under Marvin Lewis, they have hosted the opening game 4 times and lost them all.

[fredtoast]

I am guessing that a team in the NFC projected to win 8.5 games would have better Super Bowl odds than an AFC team in the same position just because New England is in the AFC.

But I can also see where our prior playoff performances make us a longer shot to make the Super Bowl even if we do make the playoffs

[Shake n Blake]

(05-08-2017, 05:37 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I am guessing that a team in the NFC projected to win 8.5 games would have better Super Bowl odds than an AFC team in the same position just because New England is in the AFC.

But I can also see where our prior playoff performances make us a longer shot to make the Super Bowl even if we do make the playoffs

Agree on both. Oakland and Pittsburgh are the only other AFC teams to crack the top 8.

Plus you have our unfortunate history. It's pretty encouraging that Vegas has us at 8.5 wins, so a rebound seems likely.

But after that? 0-8 is also likely.

[Bengalbug]

So 21/32 teams are projected to have a .500 or better finish?

Also, add up all the numbers and you get 259. That number needs to be doubled to account for a winner AND loser or a tie and a tie.

32 teams by 16 game schedule equals 512. They have 6 extra wins or 3 extra ties in there. From
What I can tell.

Maybe it has nothing to do with it and I am looking to far in, but these are good indicators I suppose

[HarleyDog]

So, if I was to bet $100 Bengals win SB, I win $60,000?

[Luvnit2]

(05-08-2017, 05:32 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not sure how much you can read into what Vegas thinks, but I found this interesting. The Bengals are projected to win 8.5 games which is tied for 14th best in the league, but our Super Bowl odds are 60/1, which is tied for 23rd with the Redskins. All of the other 5 teams projected to win 8.5 games have better SB odds than the Bengals, and 5 of the 13 teams projected to win fewer games also have better SB odds.

Make of that what you will.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/1/15498624/2017-nfl-over-under-win-totals-cowboys-projected-win-nfc-east-giants-eagles-redskins
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/7/15571864/post-draft-super-bowl-odds-vegas-has-cowboys-with-third-best-odds-patriots-raiders

I can see where they feel the path through the AFC (new England) explains the Super Bowl odds. Also, our lack of playoff success is a fact and should be weighed.

[XenoMorph]

(05-08-2017, 05:32 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not sure how much you can read into what Vegas thinks, but I found this interesting. The Bengals are projected to win 8.5 games which is tied for 14th best in the league, but our Super Bowl odds are 60/1, which is tied for 23rd with the Redskins. All of the other 5 teams projected to win 8.5 games have better SB odds than the Bengals, and 5 of the 13 teams projected to win fewer games also have better SB odds.

Make of that what you will.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/1/15498624/2017-nfl-over-under-win-totals-cowboys-projected-win-nfc-east-giants-eagles-redskins
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/7/15571864/post-draft-super-bowl-odds-vegas-has-cowboys-with-third-best-odds-patriots-raiders

Right now every teams odds are 1/32

[Bengalbug]

(05-08-2017, 05:54 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Right now every teams odds are 1/32

You don't believe that do you?

[Bengalbug]

(05-08-2017, 05:49 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: So, if I was to bet $100 Bengals win SB, I win $60,000?

I guess so... Those are not bad odds at all!!

[HarleyDog]

(05-08-2017, 05:55 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: I guess so... Those are not bad odds at all!!

Where do I bet? I may be a little pissy right now about the Bengals but I know by kickoff game one I will have pumped myself to believe in this team again. I do it every year so I guess this year won't be any different!

[SunsetBengal]

(05-08-2017, 05:49 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: So, if I was to bet $100 Bengals win SB, I win $60,000?

Naw, only $6,000

[Vas Deferens]

(05-08-2017, 07:02 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Naw, only $6,000

^^^ this

[HarleyDog]

(05-08-2017, 07:02 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Naw, only $6,000

[Luvnit2]

(05-08-2017, 07:02 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Naw, only $6,000

Still a great ROI

Then hedge bet on an AFC team (New England) and an NFC team (I would bet Atlanta) for $100 Hopefully one of the 3 wins and you still make money

[*bengalfan74*]

Yes they are,

What they're basically saying is they know the Bengals are good enough to win some games in the regular season because of playing the Browns/AFCS/NFCN.

But they also know, as we do, that Marvin has zero chances of winning the Super Bowl ! Hell he can't even win a single playoff game.

[*jason*]

(05-08-2017, 05:45 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Agree on both. Oakland and Pittsburgh are the only other AFC teams to crack the top 8.

Plus you have our unfortunate history. It's pretty encouraging that Vegas has us at 8.5 wins, so a rebound seems likely.

But after that? 0-8 is also likely.

The past 4 it so years they've had the Bengals right around the 7.5 to 8.5 range it seems. I completely agree with the Superbowl assessment, but in reality the NFL is a 7-8 win league. I don't think they have a lot of trouble slotting teams in the over/ under category.

[SunsetBengal]

(05-08-2017, 07:22 PM)HarleyDog Wrote:

Sorry bro, wasn't looking to show you up.  Math is important in Surveying..

[*jason*]

(05-08-2017, 07:22 PM)HarleyDog Wrote:

Look at Thurston Howell III... Scoffing at $6000.

[*Nately120*]

Man, I really wish I would have put money on the Bengals to win the Super Bowl!
- Said no one, ever

(05-08-2017, 05:54 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Right now every teams odds are 1/32

Actually, right now every team's odds are 50/50.  You either win the SB, or you don't.