Tempered Expectations for Draft Picks

[Shake n Blake]

(05-11-2017, 12:44 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: This is a great post and I agree 100%. Everyone on here thinks the additions of our first three picks makes us an automatic Super Bowl contender. That's not the way it works and it really has never worked that way.

I think Dallas would disagree. 

I don't think anyone thinks we're an instant SB contender now, but I think we have at least a couple guys who could have serious impacts within the first couple years.

[*ochocincos*]

My expectations are:

John Ross - Will add another dimension to this offense and establish himself as a great WR2 provided he can stay healthy. This year, he'll be in a somewhat limited role and probably get around 600 yards and about maybe 4 TDs I think.

Joe Mixon - He'll earn the starting role this year and will have a solid rookie year. I think he'll become the best RB the Bengals have had since probably Rudi.

Jordan Willis - I believe Willis will be a rotational DE as a rookie and have about 4-5 sacks. But I think he develops into a quality but not elite DE, similar to MJ in his prime.

Carl Lawson - Lawson needs to be used right. If he's used properly, I think he could be the third-leading sacker on this team behind Atkins and Dunlap, even as a rookie.

Josh Malone - I'm expecting Malone to ride the pine this year. He's still somewhat raw, but he has the talent to develop into a good WR3.

Ryan Glasgow - I envision him becoming just like Peko. He'll be a decent-to-solid DT and might put up 4+ sacks in a season occasionally. But hopefully he is just a quality backup because Billings tears it up at NT.

Jake Elliott - I think Elliott will be a good kicker for a long time. The Bengals are very hesitant to take a kicker/punter in the draft, so it should speak volumes to the fact they actually drafted one and especially in the 5th. The last 5th round K/P they took ended up being pretty good (Huber).

JJ Dielman - I feel this was a project pick, but I don't see him ever becoming a starter. With only 5 games experience at C, he has a steep hill to climb.

Jordan Evans - I think Evans could be a decent backup nickel LB in time, but he'll be relegated to ST duty if he makes the team this year. I like him more than Flowers.

Brandon Wilson - I think this guy will become a ST staple for the Bengals. I don't think he'll ever really be much of a factor at all on offense/defense though.

Mason Schreck - PS forever

[jj22]

Our issue the last couple years hasn't been talent. So a talented class won't really change much. We have the same inept coaching staff. Will we suddenly be able to win a primetime game? Big game? Will we suddenly have poise in big moments? None of this has anything to do with talent and everything to do with Coaching. Which unfortunately, hasn't changed.

[eoxyod]

(05-11-2017, 02:01 PM)jj22 Wrote: Our issue the last couple years hasn't been talent. So a talented class won't really change much. We have the same inept coaching staff. Will we suddenly be able to win a primetime game? Big game? Will we suddenly have poise in big moments? None of this has anything to do with talent and everything to do with Coaching. Which unfortunately, hasn't changed.

I'm not going to have this turn into a coaching thread because that isn't the point, but one thing fans of all teams have an issue with is overrating talent on the team. I do believe we are talented but people will overrate ourselves pretty consistently on that. Our coaching isn't the greatest but there are other factors involved as well. 

/coaching talk

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Nicely done Eox, I am with you on Ross, he is probably my favorite pick. Kind of surprised he wasn't quite as good
on Slant routes. Could that be because he had such a shitty QB? Seems like this would be the most deadly route for
us to use him on especially since our O-line is our biggest question.

On Mixon his vision makes up for his lack of agility IMHO. He has such great vision he sees things happen before
they happen. This is exactly why he will start as a rookie here i agree and will be our most productive rookie this
year. I actually think our run game could improve a lot this year which is awesome.

Disagree on Willis completely. He has bend, he can rush on the outside, inside, has swim moves, spin moves can
bull rush. He is very physical, i believe he is exactly what we needed. With Billings, Willis and Lawson we could be
great on Defense this year which is where i am the most excited. Lets be #1. We were already hard to pass on
with the walking tree at RE, we will be harder to pass on now with these additions and the wins on moving on from
Peko and Maualuga. Willis is also a good run stopper so this will not hamper his chances of starting.

Lawson is a very physical pass rusher, should be very good in a rotation on down the line.

I really liked the Glasgow pick as he is not just a run stopper. I think he makes the team, another physical player.

Malone is said to remind AJ Green and some of MLJ, i see more of a Chris Henry type with his size. What is wild
is he can also be a returner. Damn, so much competition at Receiver it is crazy.

Jordan Evans has range and is the fastest LB to come out of this draft. He will make the team on ST's alone.

[eoxyod]

(05-11-2017, 02:09 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Nicely done Eox, I am with you on Ross, he is probably my favorite pick. Kind of surprised he wasn't quite as good
on Slant routes. Could that be because he had such a shitty QB? Seems like this would be the most deadly route for
us to use him on especially since our O-line is our biggest question.
Haven't been able to see all of those, but typically it's a matter of getting off the line very quickly which is a route that is typically perfected the longer you play receiver. As you know he was a converted CB so time with Urban can help develop that. Having a much more accurate short throw QB helps too
On Mixon his vision makes up for his lack of agility IMHO. He has such great vision he sees things happen before
they happen. This is exactly why he will start as a rookie here i agree and will be our most productive rookie this
year. I actually think our run game could improve a lot this year which is awesome.

Disagree on Willis completely. He has bend, he can rush on the outside, inside, has swim moves, spin moves can
bull rush. He is very physical, i believe he is exactly what we needed. With Billings, Willis and Lawson we could be
great on Defense this year which is where i am the most excited. Lets be #1. We were already hard to pass on
with the walking tree at RE, we will be harder to pass on now with these additions and the wins on moving on from
Peko and Maualuga. Wills is also a good run stopper so this will not hamper his chances of starting.
That's fair. As I said before expecting all 3 top picks to become good players is not realistic unless the team gets very lucky. I think he's going to get a much ruder awakening in terms of his pass rush skillset coming in. But he plays very hard which is always a plus
Lawson is a very physical pass rusher, should be very good in a rotation on down the line.

I really liked the Glasgow pick as he is not just a run stopper. I think he makes the team, another physical player.

Malone is said to remind AJ Green and some of MLJ, i see more of a Chris Henry type with his size. What is wild
is he can also be a returner. Damn, so much competition at Receiver it is crazy.

Jordan Evans has range and is the fastest LB to come out of this draft. He will make the team on ST's alone.

Also fair on Evans I was not able to watch anything on him. Fortunately LBs are super scheme specific so if he fits ours then it works. Being a fast LB on STs would help him make the team though

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-11-2017, 02:29 PM)eoxyod Wrote: Also fair on Evans I was not able to watch anything on him. Fortunately LBs are super scheme specific so if he fits ours then it works. Being a fast LB on STs would help him make the team though

Good stuff, Dalton working with Ross will be so much better in all facets. For Ross to do all he did with that QB in
college speaks volumes. Having a good Slant passing and deep ball QB like Andy will really help JR.

Willis has it all, don't know why you don't like him. I guess you are a bit correct on him being a bit stiff but he does
have bend which is what MJ and Hunt do not have and Dunlap does. He also has size and the ability to both stuff
the run and rush the passer. His range of pass rush moves are actually pretty daunting for a guy just coming into
the league.

Evans is a Simmons grab, dude could be that stud LB he wanted Lamur to be.

But in the end you are correct and it is unrealistic for all these guys to be studs.

I had Ross, Mixon, Willis and Lawson all being great players before the draft. We will see.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-11-2017, 12:44 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: This is a great post and I agree 100%. Everyone on here thinks the additions of our first three picks makes us an automatic Super Bowl contender. That's not the way it works and it really has never worked that way.

We are not ever going to be a Super Bowl contender with Marvin Lewis at the helm.

But this was a great draft IMHO that will make us a very good regular season team.

(05-11-2017, 12:46 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Jordan Willis is also my least favorite pick. I dont like his tape. He looks slow off the ball and just slow/stiff in general. 

Slow? Dude has great off the ball quicks. Don't know who you are looking at. I don't think it is Jordan Willis.

I had this guy over Derek Barnett before the draft cause he is a 3 down Defensive End with all the pass rush moves.

I know this is high praise but Jordan Willis seriously reminds me of Julius Peppers.

[eoxyod]

(05-11-2017, 03:23 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Good stuff, Dalton working with Ross will be so much better in all facets. For Ross to do all he did with that QB in
college speaks volumes. Having a good Slant passing and deep ball QB like Andy will really help JR.

Willis has it all, don't know why you don't like him. I guess you are a bit correct on him being a bit stiff but he does
have bend which is what MJ and Hunt do not have and Dunlap does. He also has size and the ability to both stuff
the run and rush the passer. His range of pass rush moves are actually pretty daunting for a guy just coming into
the league.

Evans is a Simmons grab, dude could be that stud LB he wanted Lamur to be.

But in the end you are correct and it is unrealistic for all these guys to be studs.

I had Ross, Mixon, Willis and Lawson all being great players before the draft. We will see.

Watching Willis I see severe issues in his technique translating to going against NFL tackles. He doesn't have the angle of bend to win consistently from what I've seen either. Obviously players drop for many reasons, but if Willis had his ridiculous athletic scores and teams didn't question his technique and general football abiity, there would be no way he'd drop to the 3rd

[3wt]

Really nice thread EOXYOD.  Thanks for the work you put into this.  


Ross- It will all depend upon his health status, especially with assassins like Mike Mitchell prowling around looking to  knock Bengal receivers out of the game.    But if he stays healthy he has the chance to make a huge impact  as a #2 WR and a red zone threat.   He does so many things at warp speed.  I think he has the potential to be much better than D. Jackson.


Mixon- I think he'll also have an immediate impact.  He's the type of running back that you can put anywhere on the field giving us the players to execute the no huddle in a big way.  And he's a tough guy who doesn't go down after the first touch by a defensive player.  I definitely think he's a 2017 guy.

Willis- I'm also hesitant on Willis, but I think he'll be an upgrade from what we've had on 3rd down.  He seems pretty raw, but if he grows he could be a very good DE.

Lawson- This guy I love.   I think he starts out on third downs, impacting right away, and develops into a guy that can be one of the exceptions to our search for the hybrid stud.

Malone- A lot of people have said he reminds them of Henry, and I agree.  I actually think he's got more potential than Henry had.  He's raw, but he does the long ball really well, so if Ross is hurt we don't return to square one.   Some people have said that he reminds them of M.L. Jones when he first arrived.   If so we will have some serious depth at WR - especially those that can throw the safeties into cover 2 opening up the middle for Eifert, Mixon and Gio.  It was a really wise pick.

Glasgow- I think this guy surprises.  He stands out on film in that he stuffs the run, seldom goes backwards and never without a double or triple team, and he actually penetrates.   He is not as good laterally as Peko, but I think could be better in every other respect.  And his motor is never off.

Elliott- Hopefully Simmons knows what he is doing. I agree with others that Randy Bullock will be tough to legitimately beat out, but will anyway, as the 5th round pick will win.

Dielman- I want to be excited about this guy.  I'm hearing mixed reports on him. If the good reports are true maybe we got lucky...

Evans- I love this guy too.  Our backers have struggled to cover in zone packages and he does that really well.  And he should be a really good on special teams.

Wilson - they have a lot of confidence in this guy.   I'm not sure I am feeling it, but what do I know.

Schreck - This is where EOXYOD is right.   I just want every pick to come in and be a pro-bowler.   I'd say the odds are extremely low.  Watch him be the only guy on the team in 6 years.

[Whatever]

(05-11-2017, 01:19 PM)eoxyod Wrote: Completely disagree. From what I've seen Malone has a lot to develop still, and Boyd is going to still be a very good player in the slot. If Malone does develop and see time, it will be in 2018 if anything. Malone is someone that (currently) is just speed. This isn't a bad thing right now as we have a coach that is a great developer of talent. Receivers need suddenness in their game to maximize their abilities and Malone does not have that now. Situational deep threat is a great role for him

Well, I did say he would be taking the majority of the #3 snaps by the end of next year, not this year.  As a mid round rookie, he will need to earn his touches and improve his route running, but I think he will supplant Boyd in time.  Boyd is an ok player, but he's just a possession receiver.  I don't think the Bengals are enamored with what Boyd brings to the table.  It is well known that they wanted a WR with deep speed early last year.  The board didn't fall their way, and desperate for a #3, they took Boyd in 2 based on need, but he wasn't what they wanted.  If you put AJ, Ross, and Boyd out there, the defense will gladly let you check it down to Boyd for 8-10 all day.  If you put Malone out there instead of Boyd, anyone of them can burn you for 6 at any time.  The Bengals have stated that they thought Malone would be gone in 2, so they thought very highly of him.

From the outside looking in, it seems like they are going for their version of "The Greatest Show on Turf" Rams on offense.  

[eoxyod]

(05-11-2017, 07:54 PM)Whatever Wrote: Well, I did say he would be taking the majority of the #3 snaps by the end of next year, not this year.  As a mid round rookie, he will need to earn his touches and improve his route running, but I think he will supplant Boyd in time.  Boyd is an ok player, but he's just a possession receiver.  I don't think the Bengals are enamored with what Boyd brings to the table.  It is well known that they wanted a WR with deep speed early last year.  The board didn't fall their way, and desperate for a #3, they took Boyd in 2 based on need, but he wasn't what they wanted.  If you put AJ, Ross, and Boyd out there, the defense will gladly let you check it down to Boyd for 8-10 all day.  If you put Malone out there instead of Boyd, anyone of them can burn you for 6 at any time.  The Bengals have stated that they thought Malone would be gone in 2, so they thought very highly of him.

From the outside looking in, it seems like they are going for their version of "The Greatest Show on Turf" Rams on offense.  

Apologies I thought you said end of this year. I just am not sure if Malone will develop. But regarding Boyd, his ability to find holes in zone coverage and still make some contested catches is good. He has his own issues in making separation in man coverage but for a rookie Boyd made great strides as the year went on. I do think the team is going full Rams though. 

[J24]

(05-11-2017, 08:07 PM)eoxyod Wrote: Apologies I thought you said end of this year. I just am not sure if Malone will develop. But regarding Boyd, his ability to find holes in zone coverage and still make some contested catches is good. He has his own issues in making separation in man coverage but for a rookie Boyd made great strides as the year went on. I do think the team is going full Rams though. 

Current rams or 99-03 rams? Never mind saw op

[grampahol]

I'd like to see all of the young receivers out there wrecking havoc. I have a hunch we'll see Malone out there a bit sooner than expected, but it's still tough making predictions about young players. I'd like to see some empty backfields with everyone involved, Green, Ross, Malone, Eifert, Boyde all out there burning up defences.. I guess that's going to hinge on whether the Oline holds up.  

[SunsetBengal]

(05-11-2017, 01:43 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I think Dallas would disagree. 

I don't think anyone thinks we're an instant SB contender now, but I think we have at least a couple guys who could have serious impacts within the first couple years.

Dallas may disagree, because they understand how it works, they built their OL before going all out for the accessories..

[*ochocincos*]

It's worth commenting in a thread like this that some people will say there isn't any way for 11 draft picks to make the team.
I counter that thought process with the fact there are at least a handful of depth players that haven't shown much and could technically be upgraded. It might not come via a draft pick, but we shouldn't rule out the possibility.

Depth players that could be upgraded:
Marquis Flowers
PJ Dawson
Alex Erickson (at least as a WR)
Cody Core (due to lack of ST value)
Cedric Peerman (not good outside of ST)
DeShawn Williams
Marcus Hardison (last shot to try and make roster, must stay healthy)
Pat Sims
TJ Johnson
Ryan Hewitt (value is dropping due to less usage)
Clayton Fedejelem (very limited usage, wasn't great in limited defensive reps)
Derron Smith (had issues staying healthy, hasn't shown much when healthy)
Brandon Thompson

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-11-2017, 05:26 PM)eoxyod Wrote: Watching Willis I see severe issues in his technique translating to going against NFL tackles. He doesn't have the angle of bend to win consistently from what I've seen either. Obviously players drop for many reasons, but if Willis had his ridiculous athletic scores and teams didn't question his technique and general football abiity, there would be no way he'd drop to the 3rd

He does need to work on his technique but so does Derek Barnett who lots wanted us to take at 9.

Willis went to Kansas State, is a bit stiff and you said needs to work on his technique, that is why he fell.

Not cause of his potential. Very good players fall to the mid rounds all the time. Geno Atkins fell to the 4th.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-11-2017, 07:54 PM)Whatever Wrote: Well, I did say he would be taking the majority of the #3 snaps by the end of next year, not this year.  As a mid round rookie, he will need to earn his touches and improve his route running, but I think he will supplant Boyd in time.  Boyd is an ok player, but he's just a possession receiver.  I don't think the Bengals are enamored with what Boyd brings to the table.  It is well known that they wanted a WR with deep speed early last year.  The board didn't fall their way, and desperate for a #3, they took Boyd in 2 based on need, but he wasn't what they wanted.  If you put AJ, Ross, and Boyd out there, the defense will gladly let you check it down to Boyd for 8-10 all day.  If you put Malone out there instead of Boyd, anyone of them can burn you for 6 at any time.  The Bengals have stated that they thought Malone would be gone in 2, so they thought very highly of him.

From the outside looking in, it seems like they are going for their version of "The Greatest Show on Turf" Rams on offense.  

Nice post man, i just hope the O-line can hold up to see this. We are stacked now with weapons.

[fredtoast]

(05-11-2017, 01:19 PM)eoxyod Wrote: I know I'm beating my own dead horse here but it's important to note that one of our top 3 players will not have a career unless we get insanely lucky.

1.  I had no idea that horse was yours.

2.  It does not take "insane luck" to have all of our top 3 picks work out.  It may not happen as much as some people think, but you are being a bit too negative.

[THE PISTONS]

(05-12-2017, 12:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: He does need to work on his technique but so does Derek Barnett who lots wanted us to take at 9.

Willis went to Kansas State, is a bit stiff and you said needs to work on his technique, that is why he fell.

Not cause of his potential. Very good players fall to the mid rounds all the time. Geno Atkins fell to the 4th.

Yep. Every year there are a few pass rushing rookies who fell out of the 1st Round who put up good sack stats.

Willis could be that guy this year.

I think his main issue with playing time will be holding up against the run as Tackles in the NFL are really big and strong and he's undersized.