Tempered Expectations for Draft Picks

[Shake n Blake]

(05-11-2017, 09:00 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Dallas may disagree, because they understand how it works, they built their OL before going all out for the accessories..

Can't argue there. They did have the pieces in place to help Dak and Elliott be successful.

I'm just saying there are many examples of draft picks helping teams get over the top.

[sandwedge]

(05-11-2017, 07:54 PM)Whatever Wrote: Well, I did say he would be taking the majority of the #3 snaps by the end of next year, not this year.  As a mid round rookie, he will need to earn his touches and improve his route running, but I think he will supplant Boyd in time.  Boyd is an ok player, but he's just a possession receiver.  I don't think the Bengals are enamored with what Boyd brings to the table.  It is well known that they wanted a WR with deep speed early last year.  The board didn't fall their way, and desperate for a #3, they took Boyd in 2 based on need, but he wasn't what they wanted.  If you put AJ, Ross, and Boyd out there, the defense will gladly let you check it down to Boyd for 8-10 all day.  If you put Malone out there instead of Boyd, anyone of them can burn you for 6 at any time.  The Bengals have stated that they thought Malone would be gone in 2, so they thought very highly of him.

From the outside looking in, it seems like they are going for their version of "The Greatest Show on Turf" Rams on offense.  

I'm confused about most people opinion of Boyd being slower than molasses in January? He did beat Fitzgerald's receiving records at Pitt, so he isn't a stiff. Had a pretty damn good rookie season last year to boot! If we had to check down to Boyd for 8-10 yds then I would consider that a win in most situations.
I"ll be honest, I don't know much about Malone but it sounds to me, he is a 1 year project. I guess we will see.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-12-2017, 02:10 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Yep. Every year there are a few pass rushing rookies who fell out of the 1st Round who put up good sack stats.

Willis could be that guy this year.

I think his main issue with playing time will be holding up against the run as Tackles in the NFL are really big and strong and he's undersized.

He does need to put on a little more muscle being that he is listed at 255 but he is 6'5".

Willis could definately be that guy. I liked him better than Barnett cause he is a 3 down End unlike Barnett.

He isn't that far off honestly. He plays physical already.

BTW just saw he took Hunt's old number 99.

Bengals.com actually has Willis listed as 6'4" but everywhere i read before the draft had him at 6'5".

[sandwedge]

(05-12-2017, 02:43 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: He does need to put on a little more muscle being that he is listed at 255 but he is 6'5".

Willis could definately be that guy. I liked him better than Barnett cause he is a 3 down End unlike Barnett.

He isn't that far off honestly. He plays physical already.

BTW just saw he took Hunt's old number 99.

Bengals.com actually has Willis listed as 6'4" but everywhere i read before the draft had him at 6'5".

Ahhh, what's an inch...

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-11-2017, 02:29 PM)eoxyod Wrote: Also fair on Evans I was not able to watch anything on him. Fortunately LBs are super scheme specific so if he fits ours then it works. Being a fast LB on STs would help him make the team though

Nice post, I'm curious as to what your full analysis is of Evans.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-12-2017, 02:50 PM)sandwedge Wrote: Ahhh, what's an inch...

[eoxyod]

(05-12-2017, 12:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: He does need to work on his technique but so does Derek Barnett who lots wanted us to take at 9.

Willis went to Kansas State, is a bit stiff and you said needs to work on his technique, that is why he fell.

Not cause of his potential. Very good players fall to the mid rounds all the time. Geno Atkins fell to the 4th.

I wanted absolutely nothing to do with Barnett either though lol. Barnett had the fantastic ability of also not being athletic at all so I would have actually preferred Willis. I do think Willis has potential, but he is a mroe developmental player than people anticipate I believe. I'm not saying he'll never be good, just that I think he has the lowest chance from my personal observation

(05-12-2017, 12:46 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 1.  I had no idea that horse was yours.

2.  It does not take "insane luck" to have all of our top 3 picks work out.  It may not happen as much as some people think, but you are being a bit too negative.

1. I'm not saying I invented the concept. But I've said it like 5 times this thread.

2. How many times do the top 3 players of any draft work out compared to how often they don't? You yourself preach how much a crapshoot the draft is often. I might be being negative but I would say history is on my side.

[eoxyod]

(05-12-2017, 02:50 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Nice post, I'm curious as to what your full analysis is of Evans.

Alright so Evans ranked 8th in terms of SPARQ score of all off ball LBs. This puts him in the 84th percentile of NFL off ball LBs in terms of athleticism. As you and others have noticed, the Bengals did a great job at drafting pure athletes. Especially towards the end of the draft this is a great idea because these are your developmental projects and if they don't work out they can often turn into special teamers. However, while Evans had strong aglity/speed scores, he was pretty weak in terms of explosion tests like the broad jump, although he had a slightly above average vertical jump.

The Bengals drafted him as purely a cover LB which is a pretty big change towards what the Bengals get. Evans is not good at getting off blocks and his lack of explosion shows there. In other terms from what I've read and briefly looked at, he's soft and gets washed out relatively easily. Of course I don't know the Okllahoma's playcalls to know how the flow of the defense is gone, but he seems disinterested in fully engaging in blocks in the run game.

But again turning him into what they sort of wanted out of Lamur would make sense. If he makes it through, he would be an exclusive special teamer. A fast guy with his body can be a dangerous weapon on cover teams. That is if he becomes more aggressive though. If not then he won't be able to make the team because that's #1 key on STs

His best case scenario woud be as a 3rd down LB/S hybrid that also is a STs ace. His worst case is not gaining that physicality and not making the team

[SunsetBengal]

(05-12-2017, 02:43 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: He does need to put on a little more muscle being that he is listed at 255 but he is 6'5".

Willis could definately be that guy. I liked him better than Barnett cause he is a 3 down End unlike Barnett.

He isn't that far off honestly. He plays physical already.

BTW just saw he took Hunt's old number 99.

Bengals.com actually has Willis listed as 6'4" but everywhere i read before the draft had him at 6'5".

Actually, both CBS and NFL.com had his listed at 6'4", after the combine.  Not sure why people keep saying that Willis "fell" to the Bengals, at the 73rd pick.  Most had him late 2nd-early 3rd, which is right where he went.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-12-2017, 03:23 PM)eoxyod Wrote: I wanted absolutely nothing to do with Barnett either though lol. Barnett had the fantastic ability of also not being athletic at all so I would have actually preferred Willis. I do think Willis has potential, but he is a mroe developmental player than people anticipate I believe. I'm not saying he'll never be good, just that I think he has the lowest chance from my personal observation

Cool man, i understand. I just think he will be an upgrade over MJ at worst from mine.

(05-12-2017, 03:44 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Actually, both CBS and NFL.com had his listed at 6'4", after the combine.  Not sure why people keep saying that Willis "fell" to the Bengals, at the 73rd pick.  Most had him late 2nd-early 3rd, which is right where he went.

Thanks Sunset, i watched a lot of vids listing him as 6'5" though.

Some had him going early 2nd too, so i can see why people could see that as "falling" to the 3rd.

I had him going to us in the 2nd in my last mock. Thought Willis would of been gone by our 3rd pick.

[J24]

(05-12-2017, 03:41 PM)eoxyod Wrote: Alright so Evans ranked 8th in terms of SPARQ score of all off ball LBs. This puts him in the 84th percentile of NFL off ball LBs in terms of athleticism. As you and others have noticed, the Bengals did a great job at drafting pure athletes. Especially towards the end of the draft this is a great idea because these are your developmental projects and if they don't work out they can often turn into special teamers. However, while Evans had strong aglity/speed scores, he was pretty weak in terms of explosion tests like the broad jump, although he had a slightly above average vertical jump.

The Bengals drafted him as purely a cover LB which is a pretty big change towards what the Bengals get. Evans is not good at getting off blocks and his lack of explosion shows there. In other terms from what I've read and briefly looked at, he's soft and gets washed out relatively easily. Of course I don't know the Okllahoma's playcalls to know how the flow of the defense is gone, but he seems disinterested in fully engaging in blocks in the run game.

But again turning him into what they sort of wanted out of Lamur would make sense. If he makes it through, he would be an exclusive special teamer. A fast guy with his body can be a dangerous weapon on cover teams. That is if he becomes more aggressive though. If not then he won't be able to make the team because that's #1 key on STs

His best case scenario woud be as a 3rd down LB/S hybrid that also is a STs ace. His worst case is not gaining that physicality and not making the team

He reminds me of a Taylor Mays with playmaking skills fair comparison or nah?

[eoxyod]

(05-12-2017, 06:12 PM)J24 Wrote: He reminds me of a Taylor Mays with playmaking skills fair comparison or nah?

Mays played a lot more aggressive. Overly aggressive actually

[SunsetBengal]

(05-12-2017, 04:56 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Cool man, i understand. I just think he will be an upgrade over MJ at worst from mine.


Thanks Sunset, i watched a lot of vids listing him as 6'5" though.

Some had him going early 2nd too, so i can see why people could see that as "falling" to the 3rd.

I had him going to us in the 2nd in my last mock. Thought Willis would of been gone by our 3rd pick.

I'm happy that the Bengals were able to get him, when they got him.  When he posted that crazy 40 time, at the combine, I started thinking to myself "Welp, secrets out.".  His size shouldn't be considered any sort of handicap, at all.  Heck, just look at guys like Von Miller.  As long as the team uses him properly, he should be a valuable weapon for the defense.

[Whatever]

(05-12-2017, 02:25 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I'm confused about most people opinion of Boyd being slower than molasses in January? He did beat Fitzgerald's receiving records at Pitt, so he isn't a stiff. Had a pretty damn good rookie season last year to boot! If we had to check down to Boyd for 8-10 yds then I would consider that a win in most situations.
I"ll be honest, I don't know much about Malone but it sounds to me, he is a 1 year project. I guess we will see.

He had a long of 30 yards on the year, his 11.2 YPC was 5th on the team amongst WR's and tied for 186th in the league, he had as many turnovers as he did TD's(1), and he was a non factor in the red zone.  He had an ok year, but his production dipped significantly with AJ out of the lineup and 1 TD is horrible for a #3 WR.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-12-2017, 06:56 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I'm happy that the Bengals were able to get him, when they got him.  When he posted that crazy 40 time, at the combine, I started thinking to myself "Welp, secrets out.".  His size shouldn't be considered any sort of handicap, at all.  Heck, just look at guys like Von Miller.  As long as the team uses him properly, he should be a valuable weapon for the defense.

For sure and i like Guenther's ways as of late. He knows how to adjust to the game.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-12-2017, 07:40 PM)Whatever Wrote: He had a long of 30 yards on the year, his 11.2 YPC was 5th on the team amongst WR's and tied for 186th in the league, he had as many turnovers as he did TD's(1), and he was a non factor in the red zone.  He had an ok year, but his production dipped significantly with AJ out of the lineup and 1 TD is horrible for a #3 WR.

At one time late in the year Boyd did lead all rookies in 3rd down receptions but yeah he didn't have a stellar year
as a rookie like Mike Thomas did on the Saints. He shown a lot of promise though and Dalton didn't see and missed
him at times when he was wide open.

[Hammerstripes]

I guess I have different expectations for some of these guys, so mine are very rarely not met.

1. John Ross. I expect to see him in limited packages in the early part of the season with him getting used more toward the end of the year in a traditional role. Expect a bunch of bubble screens and deep patterns to loosen up the defense.

2. Joe Mixon. This guy has the potential to disappoint me, because I expect to see him as the #1 back towards the middle of the year and to have over 1000 yards and have a huge impact in the passing game. Anything less will be a disappointment.

3. Jordan Willis. I honestly don't expect very much out of him. Maybe seeing the field as a pass rusher on 3rd downs.

4. Carl Lawson. Expect to see him as the pass rusher from the outside that we have been missing.

5. Josh Malone. Very limited use in specific 4 wide type packages.

6. Jake Elliott. Another guy I have high expectations for. I fully expect him to win the job and be an above average kicker year 1.

[THE PISTONS]

(05-12-2017, 10:13 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: For sure and i like Guenther's ways as of late. He knows how to adjust to the game.

I expect Zampese to improve also. I think it takes coordinators 2 years before they hit their stride.

[eoxyod]

(05-12-2017, 11:09 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I guess I have different expectations for some of these guys, so mine are very rarely not met.

1.  John Ross.  I expect to see him in limited packages in the early part of the season with him getting used more toward the end  of the year in a traditional role.  Expect a bunch of bubble screens and deep patterns to loosen up the defense.

2.  Joe Mixon.  This guy has the potential to disappoint me, because I expect to see him as the #1 back towards the middle of the year and to have over 1000 yards and have a huge impact in the passing game.  Anything less will be a disappointment.

3.  Jordan Willis.  I honestly don't expect very much out of him.  Maybe seeing the field as a pass rusher on 3rd downs.

4.  Carl Lawson.  Expect to see him as the pass rusher from the outside that we have been missing.

5.  Josh Malone.  Very limited use in specific 4 wide type packages.

6.  Jake Elliott.  Another guy I have high expectations for.  I fully expect him to win the job and be an above average kicker year 1.

Sounds like you have the same expectations as me haha

BTW thanks for the good response to this post. I love talking analytics and predictions. Also if anyone has a job about that available hit up my DMs

[fredtoast]

(05-12-2017, 07:40 PM)Whatever Wrote: He had a long of 30 yards on the year, his 11.2 YPC was 5th on the team amongst WR's and tied for 186th in the league, 

Among all WRs in the league he was 53rd in receptions and 58th in yards.  So as a #3WR he ranked among what would on average be the top 2 WRs for each team (64)

Among the 58 WRs that had at least 50 receptions he ranked 46th in yards per reception.




Among rookie WRs he was 4th in receptions and 3rd in yards.

(05-12-2017, 07:40 PM)Whatever Wrote:  his production dipped significantly with AJ out of the lineup 

stats per 10 games with Green.........3.3 rec...34.9 yds...10.6 avg
stats per  6 games without Green.....3.5 rec...42.3 yds...12.1 avg

(05-12-2017, 07:40 PM)Whatever Wrote:  1 TD is horrible for a #3 WR.

1 td is not great, but not horrible at all for a #3 WR.

There are 32 teams in the NFL and only 79 WRs caught as many as 3 tds.  So on average the #3 WR usually has fewer than 3 receiving tds.

But, whatever.....