Reality of the NFL and 1st Round and Draft Picks

[Whatever]

(09-08-2017, 02:29 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The teams that sign free agents typically fall apart because of salary cap issues thing is a myth too. The salary cap is exploding. It increases by about $10 million a year.

Teams like the Steelers that everyone thinks is entering cap hell...just signed Joe Haden. They just traded for a TE. They clearly have cap room. There hasn't been a mass exodus from their roster.

We however have lost Whitworth, Zeitler, Nelson, Hall, Jones, Sanu, and Peko over the past 2 seasons. Clearly teams have to try to make a run while their window is open.

Now...we're partially rebuilding.

You still see plenty of poorly run teams overpaying in FA, then having bottom out years when they have to cut bait bait with the overpaid guys.  

The salary cap is based on revenue.  The NFL's top revenue source is tv rights, and tv ratings dropped 8% last year.  Ratings for the 2017 opener are also down from the 2016 opener.  Spending foolishly and blindly hoping the salary cap will have massive bump after massive bump is not a plan, especially when the cap for the league year isn't set until March.

The Steelers have lost plenty of key players over the past 2 years.  Heath Miller, their starting TE, retired in 2016.  They lost their starting LT, Kelvin Beachum, and their starting NT, Steve McClendon, and one of their starting CB's, Antwon Blake, to FA.  Fast forward to this year and they lost starting WR Markus Wheaton and starting ILB Lawrence Timmons in FA, as well as Jarvis Jones, who started 24 games at OLB the previous two seasons, and traded #3 WR Sammie Coates.  For the Steelers, going for broke makes complete sense.  Their franchise QB has said he is retiring after this year or next and their stud RB seems bound and determined to leave for the highest bidder as soon as he hits the open market.  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-07-2017, 02:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I'll add that pick #9 was a not a great spot to be in the 2017 draft.
Outside of Garrett, Adams, and Thomas, there were clear concerns with every prospect.

Allen had tendenitis that people wondered would shorten his career, plus his fit in a 4-3 was likely going to be just nickel DT.
Hooker was recovering from injury (IIRC?) and only had one year of production.
Corey Davis was recovering from injury and didn't participate in the Combine because of it. Also concerns over his level of competition in college.
Mike Williams refused to run the 40 and looked to have more pedestrian speed, which the team wanted.
Reuben Foster was recovering from injury and had his spat with the medical staff at the Combine, forcing him to leave early. Plus there were concerns of his coverage ability given most of his best plays were hitting the ball carrier in the flat. Add in the addition of Minter and it was tough to see him being a starter as a rookie.
Clear question marks about the quality of OL, as no OL went in the top half of the draft.
Bengals didn't need another CB.
Pick #9 was considered too early to take a TE, and people questioned Howard's worth at that spot anyway given his lack of usage as a receiver in college.
John Ross is a dynamo with clear injury concerns by some.
Heck, Leonard Fournette, while being a huge, fast guy, had concerns about his ankles and ability to catch out of the backfield.

Probably the best thing the Bengals could/should have done was trade back, but there was no guarantee they would have found a partner that would have given a fair trade.

No, no, no come on John Ross and stop this talk.

Trade up to #1 and take this guy.

Seriously though, us questioning this pick at this time is still a bit bewildering to me, we can take it a bit slow with him.

Once he is 100% and full go he is our Tyreke Hill but a much better receiver.

You watched Tyreke on Thursday night correct? That could be this guy but smarter and just plain better.

We all know the injury concerns but every pick is a gamble, i like this gamble, a lot.

[OrangeLacroix]

(09-09-2017, 01:41 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: No, no, no come on John Ross and stop this talk.

Trade up to #1 and take this guy.

Seriously though, us questioning this pick at this time is still a bit bewildering to me, we can take it a bit slow with him.

Once he is 100% and full go he is our Tyreke Hill but a much better receiver.

You watched Tyreke on Thursday night correct? That could be this guy but smarter and just plain better.

We all know the injury concerns but every pick is a gamble, i like this gamble, a lot.

You can only hear this sort of stuff here.

Apparently John Ross is already as good as Tyreke Hill, while being a better Reciever.

Lol

[Shake n Blake]

(09-08-2017, 04:37 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: True - and I completely agree.

The only thing that I will say is that the free agent market isn't the way it used to be.  Now, teams HAVE to spend a certain amount, so you start to see some of these outrageous contracts.  Guys that should make $6 million are getting double that.  Just look at Zietler's contract.

It's not as simple as using free agency, since the cost of getting a tier 1 or tier 2 free agent is probably double to triple the cost of another guy.  

Those are the deals that make the headlines. There are plenty of deals after day 1 for good players at fair prices. Nobody wants to talk about those, though.

Manti Te'o- 2 years, $5 million
Morris Claiborne- 1 year, $5 million
Connor Barwin- 1 year, $3.5 million
Jared Cook- 2 years, $10.6 million
Brandon Carr- 4 years, $23.5 million (easy out after year 1)
Datone Jones- 1 year, $3.75 million
Cordarrelle Patterson- 2 years, $8.5 million
DJ Fluker- 1 year, $3 million
Mike Remmers- 5 years, $30 million (easy out after year 2)
Terrelle Pryor- 1 year, $6 million 
Lawrence Timmons- 2 years, $12 million (easy out after year 1)
Prince Amukamara- 1 year, $6 million
Logan Ryan- 3 years, $30 million (easy out after year 1...this was a bargain for a star CB in his prime)
DJ Swearinger- 3 years, $13.5 million (easy out after year 1)
Micah Hyde- 5 years, $30.5 million (easy out after year 3)
Alshon Jeffery- 1 year, $9.5 million (stud WR at this price? In free agency?)
John Cyprien- 4 years, $25 million (easy out after year 1)
Torrey Smith- 3 years, $15 million
Luke Joeckel- 1 year, $8 million 
Brandon Marshall- 2 years, $11 million (easy out after year 1...incredible bargain)

And this is just for 2017. 

Many of these contracts are short term or have an easy out after year one or two, which minimizes risk. I did see plenty of big deals for o-linemen, but I think that has more to do with the rising value for those positions than free agency itself. Usually with FA, we see 1 or 2 blockbuster deals that get all the headlines, but every year we also see that 90% of free agents wind up signing for fair value.

[SunsetBengal]

Just a reminder to everyone. We can have discussions where people disagree, without having to resort to name calling and personal attacks.

[THE PISTONS]

(09-09-2017, 02:11 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Those are the deals that make the headlines. There are plenty of deals after day 1 for good players at fair prices. Nobody wants to talk about those, though.

Manti Te'o- 2 years, $5 million
Morris Claiborne- 1 year, $5 million
Connor Barwin- 1 year, $3.5 million
Jared Cook- 2 years, $10.6 million
Brandon Carr- 4 years, $23.5 million (easy out after year 1)
Datone Jones- 1 year, $3.75 million
Cordarrelle Patterson- 2 years, $8.5 million
DJ Fluker- 1 year, $3 million
Mike Remmers- 5 years, $30 million (easy out after year 2)
Terrelle Pryor- 1 year, $6 million 
Lawrence Timmons- 2 years, $12 million (easy out after year 1)
Prince Amukamara- 1 year, $6 million
Logan Ryan- 3 years, $30 million (easy out after year 1...this was a bargain for a star CB in his prime)
DJ Swearinger- 3 years, $13.5 million (easy out after year 1)
Micah Hyde- 5 years, $30.5 million (easy out after year 3)
Alshon Jeffery- 1 year, $9.5 million (stud WR at this price? In free agency?)
John Cyprien- 4 years, $25 million (easy out after year 1)
Torrey Smith- 3 years, $15 million
Luke Joeckel- 1 year, $8 million 
Brandon Marshall- 2 years, $11 million (easy out after year 1...incredible bargain)

And this is just for 2017. 

Many of these contracts are short term or have an easy out after year one or two, which minimizes risk. I did see plenty of big deals for o-linemen, but I think that has more to do with the rising value for those positions than free agency itself. Usually with FA, we see 1 or 2 blockbuster deals that get all the headlines, but every year we also see that 90% of free agents wind up signing for fair value.

Precisely. And the salary cap was $120.6 million in 2012. It's $167 million now. That's why some of the top end salaries have risen.

A $10 million contract this year is equivalent to a $7.5 million contract in 2012.

Typically the QB and other star players contracts have risen at a higher percentage than the average guy.

[TheUberHuber]

(09-07-2017, 12:13 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: He said 60% of draft picks.

Reading comprehension and not cherry picking, should be studied, Fred.

Haha, that was my initial thought as well that it's Fred.