Running in Quicksand

[THE PISTONS]

-Rookie contracts are 4-5 years in length. So you get a nice, generally cheap player for that time.
-The Bengals seem to value some positions more than others.
-The Bengals seem to set a value that they will pay a player and not budge from that number once market forces drive the price up. (Supposedly they offered Zeitler $5.5 million a year while DeCastro got $10 million.)
-The Bengals don't rely heavily on free agency, and typically sign guys to shorter deals.

In order to compete under these conditions, you need to stack 3-4-5 good to great drafts together in a row as some of your really good players that you draft will be leaving when their rookie contract is up.

To further complicate it, people tend to look at 1st Round picks as quality starters. But, in reality maybe 40% will ever be a starter for you. And even a lower percentage will be quality. So if you leave say a Guard go and draft his replacement...there's like a 60% chance that guy will be below average...and that's if he's a 1st Round pick. The odds decline as the rounds proceed.

It's a really hard model to compete under. You're constantly running in quicksand trying to replace losses of players.

Our past drafts have not been even average. That's why we're in the position we are now...more so even than coaching although coaching is an issue.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-30-2017, 12:39 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: -Rookie contracts are 4-5 years in length. So you get a nice, generally cheap player for that time.
-The Bengals seem to value some positions more than others.
-The Bengals seem to set a value that they will pay a player and not budge from that number once market forces drive the price up. (Supposedly they offered Zeitler $5.5 million a year while DeCastro got $10 million.)
-The Bengals don't rely heavily on free agency, and typically sign guys to shorter deals.

In order to compete under these conditions, you need to stack 3-4-5 good to great drafts together in a row as some of your really good players that you draft will be leaving when their rookie contract is up.

To further complicate it, people tend to look at 1st Round picks as quality starters. But, in reality maybe 40% will ever be a starter for you. And even a lower percentage will be quality. So if you leave say a Guard go and draft his replacement...there's like a 60% chance that guy will be below average...and that's if he's a 1st Round pick. The odds decline as the rounds proceed.

It's a really hard model to compete under. You're constantly running in quicksand trying to replace losses of players.

Our past drafts have not been even average. That's why we're in the position we are now...more so even than coaching although coaching is an issue.

With how the Bengals typically bring about some rookies, they only get maybe a couple of those cheap contract years out of them.
Hard to field a contender when you don't try to take advantage of the cheap rookie deals and use the saved funds on upgrading other spots.

[THE PISTONS]

(10-30-2017, 12:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: With how the Bengals typically bring about some rookies, they only get maybe a couple of those cheap contract years out of them.
Hard to field a contender when you don't try to take advantage of the cheap rookie deals and use the saved funds on upgrading other spots.

That's a great point too. Some guys may only contribute to a year or two before they move on. That also makes it harder to find guys who are all good during the same years.

The whole drafting for players you're going to lose in free agency is running at quicksand epitomized.

[bengals67]

(10-30-2017, 12:55 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: That's a great point too. Some guys may only contribute to a year or two before they move on. That also makes it harder to find guys who are all good during the same years.

The whole drafting for players you're going to lose in free agency is running at quicksand epitomized.

:andy:

[Luvnit2]

(10-30-2017, 12:39 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: -Rookie contracts are 4-5 years in length. So you get a nice, generally cheap player for that time.
-The Bengals seem to value some positions more than others.
-The Bengals seem to set a value that they will pay a player and not budge from that number once market forces drive the price up. (Supposedly they offered Zeitler $5.5 million a year while DeCastro got $10 million.)
-The Bengals don't rely heavily on free agency, and typically sign guys to shorter deals.

In order to compete under these conditions, you need to stack 3-4-5 good to great drafts together in a row as some of your really good players that you draft will be leaving when their rookie contract is up.

To further complicate it, people tend to look at 1st Round picks as quality starters. But, in reality maybe 40% will ever be a starter for you. And even a lower percentage will be quality. So if you leave say a Guard go and draft his replacement...there's like a 60% chance that guy will be below average...and that's if he's a 1st Round pick. The odds decline as the rounds proceed.

It's a really hard model to compete under. You're constantly running in quicksand trying to replace losses of players.

Our past drafts have not been even average. That's why we're in the position we are now...more so even than coaching although coaching is an issue.

We have debated this 1000 times, we get it you hate our method and think FO is stupid. I agreed with you in the past that we did not go after that 1 or 2 missing piece(s) in FA. But, let's look at the Steelers who primarily use the same formula, just execute it much better. Their left OT Villaluega (spelling) was an undrafted FA cut by the Bengals, they turned him into a very good LT (we cut him). They drafted Pouncey and Gilbert with high picks (they do value center more than us as evidenced by 30 years of great centers. They drafted best WR in the NFL in round #6. They did make a trade years ago for Mitchell and this year pulled Hayden off waivers because he wanted to be a Steeler.

They hit it huge with 2 rookies already in Watt and JuJu. They hit it big with 2nd round pick Bell and guys like Truitt and Heyward. In the past they had struggled with DB's but Burns is progressing. They have a top slot corner who was a FA I believe and made team playing special teams named Hilton. They hit it big with Shazier.

My point is this, it is not the strategy as much as the execution of the draft and FA add ons. The Steelers get an A+ and the Bengals a C and that difference means great versus good or competitive. My big complaint is we won't attempt to trade or add in FA our mistakes. The Steelers did not prepare for Troy leaving via the draft so they went and got Mitchell for example. We sit on our hands versus admitting mistakes were made via the draft and fixing them.

[THE PISTONS]

(10-30-2017, 01:34 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: We have debated this 1000 times, we get it you hate our method and think FO is stupid. I agreed with you in the past that we did not go after that 1 or 2 missing piece(s) in FA. But, let's look at the Steelers who primarily use the same formula, just execute it much better. Their left OT Villaluega (spelling) was an undrafted FA cut by the Bengals, they turned him into a very good LT (we cut him). They drafted Pouncey and Gilbert with high picks (they do value center more than us as evidenced by 30 years of great centers. They drafted best WR in the NFL in round #6. They did make a trade years ago for Mitchell and this year pulled Hayden off waivers because he wanted to be a Steeler.

They hit it huge with 2 rookies already in Watt and JuJu. They hit it big with 2nd round pick Bell and guys like Truitt and Heyward. In the past they had struggled with DB's but Burns is progressing. They have a top slot corner who was a FA I believe and made team playing special teams named Hilton. They hit it big with Shazier.

My point is this, it is not the strategy as much as the execution of the draft and FA add ons. The Steelers get an A+ and the Bengals a C and that difference means great versus good or competitive. My big complaint is we won't attempt to trade or add in FA our mistakes. The Steelers did not prepare for Troy leaving via the draft so they went and got Mitchell for example. We sit on our hands versus admitting mistakes were made via the draft and fixing them.

I think philosophically we are on the same page.

I'm not saying our front office is stupid...but I think they have an ego investment in proving that the way they do things works...and they don't want to change.

[Luvnit2]

(10-30-2017, 01:42 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I think philosophically we are on the same page.

I'm not saying our front office is stupid...but I think they have an ego investment in proving that the way they do things works...and they don't want to change.

The thing is, most agree a huge change is not needed. But, they need to do a better job of hitting on early round (1st and 2nd round) picks and identify misses quickly and use FA to repair the miss.

My point is I agree with build through the draft, but disagree with not identifying weaknesses and go after a fix in FA.

Looking back at this draft (it is early), we may see Ross as a big waste if he doesn't become a AB or Hilton type production guy when we could have drafted the Hines Ward clone with more speed JuJu Schuster much later. Simply, the Steelers know at each position the type of player they want, we don't.

[THE PISTONS]

(10-30-2017, 01:50 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: The thing is, most agree a huge change is not needed. But, they need to do a better job of hitting on early round (1st and 2nd round) picks and identify misses quickly and use FA to repair the miss.

My point is I agree with build through the draft, but disagree with not identifying weaknesses and go after a fix in FA.

Looking back at this draft (it is early), we may see Ross as a big waste if he doesn't become a AB or Hilton type production guy when we could have drafted the Hines Ward clone with more speed JuJu Schuster much later. Simply, the Steelers know at each position the type of player they want, we don't.

Yeah I don't think any of us advocate going out Day 1 of free agency and signing Suh or guys like that.

There are good Tier 2 and 3 free agents that won't break the bank. A guy like Minter was a decent signing...He's more Tier 4...but guys like that help the team.

I kinda get what they were doing with Ross. Green is almost 30. Lafell has been average at best. Boyd doesn't have speed.

It actually leaked before the draft that the Bengals wanted Ross for his speed or Fournette.

[Luvnit2]

(10-30-2017, 01:54 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Yeah I don't think any of us advocate going out Day 1 of free agency and signing Suh or guys like that.

There are good Tier 2 and 3 free agents that won't break the bank. A guy like Minter was a decent signing...He's more Tier 4...but guys like that help the team.

I kinda get what they were doing with Ross. Green is almost 30. Lafell has been average at best. Boyd doesn't have speed.

It actually leaked before the draft that the Bengals wanted Ross for his speed or Fournette.

I was at the stadium on draft night and was not happy when they drafted him, Then did some research and became more optimistic. I have not given up all hope on him and I like Malone, it just seems all too often we don't have 1st rounds picks playing a lot as rookies due to injuries. Steeler's have Watt and Schuster now, they seem to always draft a plug and play day one in early rounds, we don't lately.

[THE PISTONS]

(10-30-2017, 01:59 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I was at the stadium on draft night and was not happy when they drafted him, Then did some research and became more optimistic. I have not given up all hope on him and I like Malone, it just seems all too often we don't have 1st rounds picks playing a lot as rookies due to injuries. Steeler's have Watt and Schuster now, they seem to always draft a plug and play day one in early rounds, we don't lately.

My criticism on the Bengals drafting is they have a small scouting crew so the coaches have to scout. You have to be at games during the season to pick up on nuances of players. As they're coaching during the season...they can't do this.

Therefore they rely a lot on individual workouts after a season.

So you see us draft guys that set bench press records (Westerman, Bodine, Billings, Hunt, etc.) or fast guys (Moch, Ross, etc.) A lot of times having a great skill like bench press doesn't translate to the NFL.

I'm with you on Ross. Without that blazing 40 yard dash, he was probably a 2nd Round pick. Late 1st atleast.