Some interesting stats about Dalton and our pass offense

[Shake n Blake]

I just recently discovered that you can look up any QB's stats when targeting specific receivers on Pro Football Reference. After studying up and crunching some numbers, here's some things that stood out to me about Dalton and our passing game:

1. Dalton really is throwing the ball away more this year. He's had 18 attempts that weren't targeting any receivers (throw away's), good for 7.6% of all throws. This percentage was only 3.7% in 2016. So he's throwing it away more than twice as often.

2. We're struggling a bit with getting the ball to our WR's. Last year, 60.6% of all attempts were aimed at WRs. This year we're down to 55.9%. Not only are we targeting WRs less often, we're also less successful when we do. Last year, Dalton had a 95.8 rating targeting his WRs. Leading the way were AJ Green (110.6) and LaFell (100.3).

This year, Dalton has a pathetic 72.5 rating while targeting WRs. Dalton's ratings with AJ Green (76.3) and LaFell (75.6) have plummeted. A big reason for this is that Dalton has already thrown twice as many INT's to WR's this year (8) than he did all of last year....but his completion rate to WR's is also down to 59.8%, compared to 64.2% last year. It's also worth noting that LaFell's yards/catch has fallen from 13.5 to 8.3 one year later.

3. In contrast, Dalton's rating to TE's (131.4) and RB's (116.1) are both up from 2016, when they were 91.9 and 97.2 respectively.

4. It's no wonder Boyd has been phased out of the offense. Dalton had a 77.3 rating targeting him last year. The worst of any of our top 10 most targeted receivers, regardless of position. Ross isn't even ready and Boyd still isn't getting on the field much.

__________________________

I'm sure some won't like this, but I think these are more signs that the line is even worse. Dalton has never been bad at getting the ball to his WR's before. They just don't have the time to finish routes and get open anymore. The pressure is also leading to more throw away's to avoid sacks (although some have been a bit premature). I also believe Dalton has always been a rythm QB. Kinda hard to get your rhythm behind this line, which is somehow worse than last year's.

It also looks like LaFell is washed up, but we keep throwing him out there for some reason. It also does the pass game no favors when the run game is 32nd in both yards and YPC. Opponents have nothing to worry about. Smother AJ Green with coverage. The run game won't beat you, nor will LaFell. Cover Green, pin your ears back and chase Dalton around. Not hard to stop our offense.

Btw, if anyone is interested, I can look up a different year and post the stats for comparison. I didn't feel like doing every year though. It's a lot of work.

[BengalsRocker]

Even more of a reason to either open the checkbook or finally hit on a 1b type WR in the draft.

Outside of fixing the O-line they desperately need a WR they can depend on if Green is unavailable.

You can't ride the AJ train forever for crap's sake.

[George Cantstandya]

That doesn't surprise me a bit. That and no running game due to poor run blocking. So they can't even open up the passing game a lot of the time due to no run game. If you watch the games carefully Andy is under pressure on most passing plays and doesn't have time for his receivers to get into their routes or get open. He almost never has time to sit back in the pocket to go through reads. Instead he has to make a decision in a few seconds because the defense is so often in his face. But hey, Andy that was having a close to a MVP year in 2015 before he got hurt sucks right? Yeah it's all Andy. Sigh...

[Shake n Blake]

(11-06-2017, 08:01 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: Even more of a reason to either open the checkbook or finally hit on a 1b type WR in the draft.

Outside of fixing the O-line they desperately need a WR they can depend on if Green is unavailable.

You can't ride the AJ train forever for crap's sake.

Two things we mostly haven't had since the Palmer era: a quality #2 receiver (WR or TE) and a good center. Although we kinda need an entire line at this point.

[*bengalfan74*]

I've said it a couple times in other threads. All an opposing defense has to do is double AJ in man and play the other 9 in zone from the LOS to about 15-20 yards downfield.

We can't run and they know it, Andy has no time to throw and they know it !

We badly need a vertical threat. Just as bad as we meed O-linemen ! Without a run game and no vertical threats besides AJ the ORO/WCO has no chance.

[*bengalfan74*]

(11-06-2017, 08:05 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Two things we mostly haven't had since the Palmer era: a quality #2 receiver (WR or TE) and a good center. Although we kinda need an entire line at this point.

With the exception of like one season, kinda, with the center that got hurt few years ago, forget his name ? We haven't had a center since Richie Braham ! And Andy Dalton rarely has a true pocket because of it. 

People complain about Andy not stepping up in the pocket. But the fact is on way to many plays he has nowhere to step up into because our "center" (term used loosely) get shoved back in his lap.

[Bronxbengal]

(11-06-2017, 08:13 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I've said it a couple times in other threads. All an opposing defense has to do is double AJ in man and play the other 9 in zone from the LOS to about 15-20 yards downfield.

We can't run and they know it, Andy has no time to throw and they know it !

We badly need a vertical threat. Just as bad as we meed O-linemen ! Without a run game and no vertical threats besides AJ the ORO/WCO has no chance.

The Bengals need another first round WR like the need another hole in their head! This years draft should be left tackle, center, right tackle and maybe guard in that order. Before the draft they need to fire Paul Alexander so he has absolutely NO SAY in the selection.


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[*bengalfan74*]

(11-06-2017, 08:24 PM)Bronxbengal Wrote: The Bengals need another first round WR like the need another hole in their head!  This years draft should be left tackle, center, right tackle and maybe guard in that order.  Before the draft  they need to fire Paul Alexander so he has absolutely NO SAY in the selection.  


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In no way am I implying draft a WR in the first round ! Nor did I say that, or mean to hint at it. Hopefully we already have that on our team ! Our fearless leader, lol, just won't let him play.

[J24]

Boyd isn't being phased out he is hurt. Happened in the Bills game he has a strained knee or something like that.

[CornerBlitz]

There are a multitude of problems with this offense. From the O-Line to the lack of run game to the inferior play calling to the bad QB play. They all go hand in hand.

I'm not blaming Dalton entirely for this offense because there is plenty of blame to go around, but I'm also not giving him cover and acting like it's everyone else's fault but his.

At this point our entire team just flat out sucks.

[HarleyDog]

Dalton’s biggest downfall is his leadership.

[McC]

(11-06-2017, 10:28 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: Dalton’s biggest downfall is his leadership.

I heard Tony Pike say a couple weeks ago that if he was QB, he'd be banging on M&M's doors every day asking what they were gonna do about the line.  Sometimes, being a team player requires speaking up and rocking the boat.  Especially if the boat has no oars in the water.

[HarleyDog]

(11-06-2017, 10:33 PM)McC Wrote: I heard Tony Pike say a couple weeks ago that if he was QB, he'd be banging on M&M's doors every day asking what they were gonna do about the line.  Sometimes, being a team player requires speaking up and rocking the boat.  Especially if the boat has no oars in the water.

My point exactly. It’s one thing to get angry because your lying on your back 4 out of 5 plays. It’s another when your angry because you coaches and FO are not busting their asses as hard as you to produce wins. Everybody has a part in this and nobody is doing what they should. This accountability falls on everyone in the organization except the cheerleaders.

[BengalsRocker]

(11-06-2017, 08:24 PM)Bronxbengal Wrote: The Bengals need another first round WR like the need another hole in their head!  This years draft should be left tackle, center, right tackle and maybe guard in that order.  Before the draft  they need to fire Paul Alexander so he has absolutely NO SAY in the selection.  


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They absolutely need a WR that can be a playmaker and separate.

Even if Andy gets some time there have been many instances where the other WRs are all covered anyway.

What they don't need is to try to replace this O-Line with just draft picks.

Like they just tried to do that.  Epic fail.

There should be a few players from Free Agency(especially a Center)that have experience that don't need Paul Alexander trying to coach them up.

They probably won't even try...  cause you know...  Bengals!!

The fact that they think drafting all of the holes and doing next to nothing in Free Agency shows just how cheap they are.

Why would any player want to pledge loyalty to this God forsaken franchise??

[The Caped Crusader]

The only receiver outside of AJ that Dalton has had to create separation is Marvin Jones. He just runs great routes, and has great explosion coming from his release. It's why Dalton's production continued, even with AJ out.

LaFell lacks explosion, especially going against starting corners. The only way they get him open is crossing routes, which good teams (primarily the Steelers and Ravens, with their zone defenses) have nullified with dropping linebackers over the middle. We saw it a few times against Jacksonville (and it led to Dalton doing that panicked, ball pumping motion he does).

I was hoping Ross would be that. Ross shows that explosion from his routes that we need. We just have to use him.

[JB Bengal]

(11-06-2017, 08:13 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I've said it a couple times in other threads. All an opposing defense has to do is double AJ in man and play the other 9 in zone from the LOS to about 15-20 yards downfield.

We can't run and they know it, Andy has no time to throw and they know it !

We badly need a vertical threat. Just as bad as we meed O-linemen ! Without a run game and no vertical threats besides AJ the ORO/WCO has no chance.

This is the main reason I question why Ross hasn't been on the field more.  Even if the kid needs more time to learn the playbook, etc., he could at least be used to take the top off the defense.  Throw it to him a couple times a game on a go route or a skinny post.  His mere presence on the field with a couple attempts per game would keep the DBs more honest - thereby opening things up a little more underneath.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(11-06-2017, 07:54 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I just recently discovered that you can look up any QB's stats when targeting specific receivers on Pro Football Reference. After studying up and crunching some numbers, here's some things that stood out to me about Dalton and our passing game:

1. Dalton really is throwing the ball away more this year. He's had 18 attempts that weren't targeting any receivers (throw away's), good for 7.6% of all throws. This percentage was only 3.7% in 2016. So he's throwing it away more than twice as often.

2. We're struggling a bit with getting the ball to our WR's. Last year, 60.6% of all attempts were aimed at WRs. This year we're down to 55.9%. Not only are we targeting WRs less often, we're also less successful when we do. Last year, Dalton had a 95.8 rating targeting his WRs. Leading the way were AJ Green (110.6) and LaFell (100.3).

This year, Dalton has a pathetic 72.5 rating while targeting WRs. Dalton's ratings with AJ Green (76.3) and LaFell (75.6) have plummeted. A big reason for this is that Dalton has already thrown twice as many INT's to WR's this year (8) than he did all of last year....but his completion rate to WR's is also down to 59.8%, compared to 64.2% last year. It's also worth noting that LaFell's yards/catch has fallen from 13.5 to 8.3 one year later.

3. In contrast, Dalton's rating to TE's (131.4) and RB's (116.1) are both up from 2016, when they were 91.9 and 97.2 respectively.

4. It's no wonder Boyd has been phased out of the offense. Dalton had a 77.3 rating targeting him last year. The worst of any of our top 10 most targeted receivers, regardless of position. Ross isn't even ready and Boyd still isn't getting on the field much.

__________________________

I'm sure some won't like this, but I think these are more signs that the line is even worse. Dalton has never been bad at getting the ball to his WR's before. They just don't have the time to finish routes and get open anymore. The pressure is also leading to more throw away's to avoid sacks (although some have been a bit premature). I also believe Dalton has always been a rythm QB. Kinda hard to get your rhythm behind this line, which is somehow worse than last year's.

It also looks like LaFell is washed up, but we keep throwing him out there for some reason. It also does the pass game no favors when the run game is 32nd in both yards and YPC. Opponents have nothing to worry about. Smother AJ Green with coverage. The run game won't beat you, nor will LaFell. Cover Green, pin your ears back and chase Dalton around. Not hard to stop our offense.

Btw, if anyone is interested, I can look up a different year and post the stats for comparison. I didn't feel like doing every year though. It's a lot of work.

This terrible line has many far reaching effects that a lot of people don't fully grasp.

Not only do WRs not have time to get open, when they do have time to let a play develop, there are so many in coverage, there is no open receiver to throw the ball to.  DCs have figured out that you can essentially pressure this team with 4 guys, and even then, the Bengals are often forced to use a back or TE to block, effectively removing a target from the play. Also, there is NO run game whatsoever because of these guys.

Now, for Dalton's end.  He has missed seeing open guys quite a bit this season as well.  Sometimes it's because he's under extreme duress, but others he is feeling pressure that just isn't there. This all also results in hurried throws that are off the mark. After the last two seasons, it's kinda hard for me to blame him 100% for that.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(11-06-2017, 10:33 PM)McC Wrote: I heard Tony Pike say a couple weeks ago that if he was QB, he'd be banging on M&M's doors every day asking what they were gonna do about the line.  Sometimes, being a team player requires speaking up and rocking the boat.  Especially if the boat has no oars in the water.

(11-06-2017, 10:42 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: My point exactly. It’s one thing to get angry because your lying on your back 4 out of 5 plays. It’s another when your angry because you coaches and FO are not busting their asses as hard as you to produce wins. Everybody has a part in this and nobody is doing what they should. This accountability falls on everyone in the organization except the cheerleaders.

I agree with all of this......but....you guys are forgetting a big obstacle concerning that...."The Pickens Clause".  I wonder if they still make players aware of this.  Also, the last guy that did these things, "quit".

[*PhilHos*]

(11-06-2017, 10:33 PM)McC Wrote: I heard Tony Pike say a couple weeks ago that if he was QB, he'd be banging on M&M's doors every day asking what they were gonna do about the line.  Sometimes, being a team player requires speaking up and rocking the boat.  Especially if the boat has no oars in the water.

And how do you know Dalton's not? We all know that neither Dalton nor Merv nor Brown are the kind of guys to air that kind of thing publicly. I'm not saying he has, but we don't know if he hasn't either.

[Shake n Blake]

(11-07-2017, 02:13 PM)Wyche Wrote: This terrible line has many far reaching effects that a lot of people don't fully grasp.

Not only do WRs not have time to get open, when they do have time to let a play develop, there are so many in coverage, there is no open receiver to throw the ball to.  DCs have figured out that you can essentially pressure this team with 4 guys, and even then, the Bengals are often forced to use a back or TE to block, effectively removing a target from the play. Also, there is NO run game whatsoever because of these guys.

Now, for Dalton's end.  He has missed seeing open guys quite a bit this season as well.  Sometimes it's because he's under extreme duress, but others he is feeling pressure that just isn't there. This all also results in hurried throws that are off the mark. After the last two seasons, it's kinda hard for me to blame him 100% for that.

Agree with all of this. The line was awful last year. The Ogbuehi/Bodine duo was the biggest reason for our 6-9-1 record.

Somehow, the line is substantially worse this year. To the point where the offense just can't function at all. It's like playing Madden on the "all-madden" difficulty.