QB Confidence Index: Rating all 32 NFL quarterback situations

[Joelist]

And as to receivers, it's actually easier to list the years where Andy has actually had a WR corps with any depth at all behind Green not to mention a decent receiving TE: 2013, 2015. Aside from those years the target gallery has been thin. Couple that with an OL that even at its best has never been good at run blocking or more than barely average at pass blocking and the fact that by dint of the conference and division we are in we tend to play top defenses a lot and the real wonder is that the stats are as good as they are.

[CornerBlitz]

Dalton has had one great season in the NFL and unfortunately it ended prematurely. Other then that he's been a mediocre to bad QB the rest of his career.

Let's hope the Bengals front office acquire a QB that has the potential lead us to the SB.

[*Synric*]

(12-01-2017, 10:52 PM)CornerBlitz Wrote: Dalton has had one great season in the NFL and unfortunately it ended prematurely. Other then that he's been a mediocre to bad QB the rest of his career.  

Let's hope the Bengals front office acquire a QB that has the potential lead us to the SB.

Which one? The year he set all the franchise records or thr one he was in the MVP running?

[Shake n Blake]

(12-01-2017, 12:45 PM)bfine32 Wrote: 1) I didn't "rattle off" anything, I simply listed QBs that had a minimum of 50 rushing attempts. As you can see Andy was by far the most hurtful to his team's YPC. A point was proven; however, I'm just not sure it was one you were attempting to make. But I'll give you credit for bringing other QB's rushing statics into the equation. It was helpful; thanks.

2)  I'll take this as you saying yes in long form. So we agree.

3). It should be equally as easy to list years that Andy has had an outstanding (hell, let's roll with above average) season without great receivers, a good line, and a consistent Running Game. As that would disprove the "narrative" more than any list I could provide of other QBs. But if I were inclined to provide such a list; it would be easy as you suggest. I'd just start with Kirk Cousins from this year that is currently 2nd in passing yards and 5th in passer rating with none of the 3 requirements

1) I guess I can see why you selected 50 rushing attempts as your cut off point. That way, you don't have to list these guys:

Matt Ryan: 37 carries, 63 yards (1.7 YPC)
Tom Brady: 34 carries, 53 yards (1.6 YPC)
Sam Bradford: 26 carries, 39 yards (1.5 YPC)
Kirk Cousins: 26 carries, 48 yards (1.8 YPC)
Carson Palmer: 25 carries, 24 yards (1.0 YPC)
Drew Brees: 24 carries, 14 yards (0.6 YPC)
Nick Foles: 17 carries, 20 yards (1.2 YPC)
Phillip Rivers: 17 carries, 28 yards (1.6 YPC)
Matt Hasselbeck: 16 carries, 15 yards (0.9 YPC)

Despite having fewer carries than Dalton, the YPC is lower, which means they dragged their teams YPC down just as much. So, to be fair, maybe we should remove all QB rushing numbers. Either that, or we can stop being silly and just look at team YPC, knowing that most QB's have a marginal affect on the YPC number. Including Andy that year.

2) No. We don't agree. You think a run game that ranked 13th in yards (7th in attempts) and 23rd in YPC qualifies as "good" (see post #23). I think those numbers are average at best. Especially considering the number of attempts. We ran a lot, but we were middle of the pack in yards and bottom 3rd in YPC. 

3) It  is easy. 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2017. Dalton ranked at least 15th in passer rating in each of those years, and didn't have a good run game in any of them. I know you said "consistent", but honestly what does that even mean? Either the run game was good or it wasn't. The numbers say it wasn't in any of these years. 

I would only say the receivers were "great" in 2013 and 2015. I think most would agree with me. As for the line, they gave up 40+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years I listed (including this year - they're on pace to allow 41).

Your Cousins example is interesting. First off, he's not having an MVP caliber season. Heck, most of his stats aren't all that much better than Dalton's right now. Sure he's got Andy in yards. The Skins chuck it around a lot under Gruden, especially since they're losing. Dalton has a 92.5 rating with 18 TDs and 8 INTs. Cousins has a 99.6 rating with 21 TDs and 8 INTs. 

Fwiw, Cousins just played on Thurday, so that helps his yardage ranking a bit. Not that yardage is an end-all stat. 

[The Caped Crusader]

(12-01-2017, 10:52 PM)CornerBlitz Wrote: Dalton has had one great season in the NFL and unfortunately it ended prematurely. Other then that he's been a mediocre to bad QB the rest of his career.  

Let's hope the Bengals front office acquire a QB that has the potential lead us to the SB.

Can't say I agree.

And again, I don't think putting a Heisman winner, or an ELITE QB behind this line will help. I mean we saw what happened to a mediocre at best offensive line in GB. QB isn't the issue here. Period.

[*bfine32*]

(12-01-2017, 11:29 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1) I guess I can see why you selected 50 rushing attempts as your cut off point. That way, you don't have to list these guys:

Matt Ryan: 37 carries, 63 yards (1.7 YPC)
Tom Brady: 34 carries, 53 yards (1.6 YPC)
Sam Bradford: 26 carries, 39 yards (1.5 YPC)
Kirk Cousins: 26 carries, 48 yards (1.8 YPC)
Carson Palmer: 25 carries, 24 yards (1.0 YPC)
Drew Brees: 24 carries, 14 yards (0.6 YPC)
Nick Foles: 17 carries, 20 yards (1.2 YPC)
Phillip Rivers: 17 carries, 28 yards (1.6 YPC)
Matt Hasselbeck: 16 carries, 15 yards (0.9 YPC)

Despite having fewer carries than Dalton, the YPC is lower, which means they dragged their teams YPC down just as much. So, to be fair, maybe we should remove all QB rushing numbers. Either that, or we can stop being silly and just look at team YPC, knowing that most QB's have a marginal affect on the YPC number. Including Andy that year.

2) No. We don't agree. You think a run game that ranked 13th in yards (7th in attempts) and 23rd in YPC qualifies as "good" (see post #23). I think those numbers are average at best. Especially considering the number of attempts. We ran a lot, but we were middle of the pack in yards and bottom 3rd in YPC. 

3) It  is easy. 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2017. Dalton ranked at least 15th in passer rating in each of those years, and didn't have a good run game in any of them. I know you said "consistent", but honestly what does that even mean? Either the run game was good or it wasn't. The numbers say it wasn't in any of these years. 

I would only say the receivers were "great" in 2013 and 2015. I think most would agree with me. As for the line, they gave up 40+ sacks in 3 of the 5 years I listed (including this year - they're on pace to allow 41).

Your Cousins example is interesting. First off, he's not having an MVP caliber season. Heck, most of his stats aren't all that much better than Dalton's right now. Sure he's got Andy in yards. The Skins chuck it around a lot under Gruden, especially since they're losing. Dalton has a 92.5 rating with 18 TDs and 8 INTs. Cousins has a 99.6 rating with 21 TDs and 8 INTs. 

Fwiw, Cousins just played on Thurday, so that helps his yardage ranking a bit. Not that yardage is an end-all stat. 

Actually I chose 50 because it is a nice round number that would include Dalton's stats and was enough attempts to have an impact on a team's YPA. It was no underhanded attempt of slighting Andy as I picked EVERY QB that fit the criteria; it appears your criteria was to pick and choose those that had a lower YPC than Andy.  Are you sure you understand how averages work?

I am not the one that said consistent running game, the post that I responded to that got the Dalton Duo (Shake and Brownshoe) in a tizzy said consistent ; the other half of the Dalton Duo decided to change consistent to good to fit his narrative.

And some would say that a WR corp that has AJ Green and me is great. Giving your opinions the benefit of the doubt you can come up with about 3 years that Andy was above average (in most cases slightly) when he wasn't surrounded by talented players.

As to Cousins he was number 2 in passing yards prior to Thursday and as to 99.6 isn't "that much better" than 92.5 then I'm sure you'd agree than Andy is having a season more similar to Jacoby Brisset than Kirk Cousins. They only reason Cousins is not in MVP talks is because his team is struggling; he's doing great. It reminds me of the time someone in the forum tried to say Andy was better than Kirk because of contract situation. 

I get that your role in the forum is to be lead Dalton Defender, but it's good to look at things rationally from time to time. Nothing in the original post that I responded to has been disproven; unless one wants to try to make the argument that a rushing attack that is top half in the league in yardage and TDs is not consistent (regular/ dependable/steady).

But enough of the back and forth, as I realize the Dalton Duo will be on cue to defend all things Dalton including this very thread when it was stated that Andy requires a good linen consistent runners, and elite receivers to crack the Top 10 as the only time he has done it in his 7 year career was the year he had all three.   

[Shake n Blake]

(12-02-2017, 10:27 AM)bfine32 Wrote: 1. Actually I chose 50 because it is a nice round number that would include Dalton's stats and was enough attempts to have an impact on a team's YPA. It was no underhanded attempt of slighting Andy as I picked EVERY QB that fit the criteria; it appears your criteria was to pick and choose those that had a lower YPC than Andy.  Are you sure you understand how averages work?

2. I am not the one that said consistent running game, the post that I responded to that got the Dalton Duo (Shake and Brownshoe) in a tizzy said consistent ; the other half of the Dalton Duo decided to change consistent to good to fit his narrative.

3. And some would say that a WR corp that has AJ Green and me is great. Giving your opinions the benefit of the doubt you can come up with about 3 years that Andy was above average (in most cases slightly) when he wasn't surrounded by talented players.

4. As to Cousins he was number 2 in passing yards prior to Thursday and as to 99.6 isn't "that much better" than 92.5 then I'm sure you'd agree than Andy is having a season more similar to Jacoby Brisset than Kirk Cousins. They only reason Cousins is not in MVP talks is because his team is struggling; he's doing great. It reminds me of the time someone in the forum tried to say Andy was better than Kirk because of contract situation. 

5. I get that your role in the forum is to be lead Dalton Defender, but it's good to look at things rationally from time to time. Nothing in the original post that I responded to has been disproven; unless one wants to try to make the argument that a rushing attack that is top half in the league in yardage and TDs is not consistent (regular/ dependable/steady).

6. But enough of the back and forth, as I realize the Dalton Duo will be on cue to defend all things Dalton including this very thread when it was stated that Andy requires a good linen consistent runners, and elite receivers to crack the Top 10 as the only time he has done it in his 7 year career was the year he had all three.   

1. My point stands, and you seem to be the one who doesn't understand how averages work. Let me help. A significantly lower average (YPC) is going to take less carries to do significant damage. 

Lets do an exercise. Both of these players have 250 carries for 1000 yards (4.0 YPC) in 15 games. In game 16...

Player "A" has 20 carries for 50 yards (2.5 YPC)
Player "B" has 10 carries for 10 yards (1.0 YPC)

Player "A" finishes the season at 3.89 YPC
Player "B" finishes the season at 3.88 YPC

Hopefully this helps you.

2. I'm not going to get involved in a name calling back and forth. Everyone knows where you stand on this just as much as they know with me. All it boils down to is I believe in the guy and you don't. If you want to know why I changed the vague word "consistent" to "good", re-read the post you quoted. Or maybe explain what "consistent" means to you in this case? Seems it could mean anything you want it to mean. I think the word consistent was used because everyone knows damn well the run game has never been "good".

3. Amazingly, some would disagree with that assessment. Partly because AJ Green loses some luster when all coverage is shifted to him because everyone else sucks. Partly because teams don't just line up and throw to 1 guy. Btw, I listed 5 years, not 3...and you did say "above average". Last I checked, "slightly above average" still qualifies as "above average".

4. We'll just have to disagree that Cousins is having an MVP caliber season. He's on pace for 4385 yards, 28 TDs, 11 INTs with that 99.6 rating. Good numbers. Pro Bowl numbers. Not MVP numbers. Here's the last 6 MVP QB's with their season stats:

Matt Ryan: 4944 yards, 38 TDs, 7 INTs, 117.1 rating
Cam Newton: 3837 yards, 35 TDs, 10 INTs, 99.4 rating (636 rush yards, 10 TDs)
Aaron Rodgers: 4381 yards, 38 TDs, 5 INTs, 112.2 rating
Peyton Manning: 5477 yards, 55 TDs, 10 INTs, 115.1 rating
Aaron Rodgers: 4643 yards, 45 TDs, 6 INTs, 122.5 rating
Tom Brady: 3900 yards, 36 TDs, 4 INTs, 111.0 rating

5. I don't have a "role" any more than you do. You're role isn't "guy who pretends to be objective, but isn't really" is it? Again, I like Andy, you don't. No need to make that seem any more complicated than it is. Nothing in that original post has been proven or proven wrong. It's all subjective. But the fact that Dalton has generated 5 above average seasons that included a trio of 40+ sack seasons, with no run game ranked better than 20th in YPC, and with #2 receivers like Binns, rookie Sanu/MLJ, LaFell and Kroft is good enough evidence for me. 

6. Again with the grade school level name calling. Some disagree that the talent around Andy has been all that and a bag of Husman's BBQ. That's not limited to myself and Brownshoe. Get over it.

[*bfine32*]

(12-02-2017, 02:00 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. My point stands, and you seem to be the one who doesn't understand how averages work. Let me help. A significantly lower average (YPC) is going to take less carries to do significant damage. 

Lets do an exercise. Both of these players have 250 carries for 1000 yards (4.0 YPC) in 15 games. In game 16...

Player "A" has 20 carries for 50 yards (2.5 YPC)
Player "B" has 10 carries for 10 yards (1.0 YPC)

Player "A" finishes the season at 3.89 YPC
Player "B" finishes the season at 3.88 YPC

Hopefully this helps you.

2. I'm not going to get involved in a name calling back and forth. Everyone knows where you stand on this just as much as they know with me. All it boils down to is I believe in the guy and you don't. If you want to know why I changed the vague word "consistent" to "good", re-read the post you quoted. Or maybe explain what "consistent" means to you in this case? Seems it could mean anything you want it to mean. I think the word consistent was used because everyone knows damn well the run game has never been "good".

3. Amazingly, some would disagree with that assessment. Partly because AJ Green loses some luster when all coverage is shifted to him because everyone else sucks. Partly because teams don't just line up and throw to 1 guy. Btw, I listed 5 years, not 3...and you did say "above average". Last I checked, "slightly above average" still qualifies as "above average".

4. We'll just have to disagree that Cousins is having an MVP caliber season. He's on pace for 4385 yards, 28 TDs, 11 INTs with that 99.6 rating. Good numbers. Pro Bowl numbers. Not MVP numbers. Here's the last 6 MVP QB's with their season stats:

Matt Ryan: 4944 yards, 38 TDs, 7 INTs, 117.1 rating
Cam Newton: 3837 yards, 35 TDs, 10 INTs, 99.4 rating (636 rush yards, 10 TDs)
Aaron Rodgers: 4381 yards, 38 TDs, 5 INTs, 112.2 rating
Peyton Manning: 5477 yards, 55 TDs, 10 INTs, 115.1 rating
Aaron Rodgers: 4643 yards, 45 TDs, 6 INTs, 122.5 rating
Tom Brady: 3900 yards, 36 TDs, 4 INTs, 111.0 rating

5. I don't have a "role" any more than you do. You're role isn't "guy who pretends to be objective, but isn't really" is it? Again, I like Andy, you don't. No need to make that seem any more complicated than it is. Nothing in that original post has been proven or proven wrong. It's all subjective. But the fact that Dalton has generated 5 above average seasons that included a trio of 40+ sack seasons, with no run game ranked better than 20th in YPC, and with #2 receivers like Binns, rookie Sanu/MLJ, LaFell and Kroft is good enough evidence for me. 

6. Again with the grade school level name calling. Some disagree that the talent around Andy has been all that and a bag of Husman's BBQ. That's not limited to myself and Brownshoe. Get over it.

As I said enough of the back and forth folks can read and they can determine if what I quoted and there a couple n here into a tizzy is sensible or not:

With a good oline, consistent run game, and elite WR corps Andy can crack the top 10. If any of those 3 are missing he has failed to do so.

I like Andy just fine and have said so on numerous occasions. Just because I don't feel he is a top 10 QB without great pieces around him doesn't mean i "don't like him".

[CornerBlitz]

People attempting to claim that Dalton is a top 10 QB with a good O-Line are delusional. He's had 1 year his entire career that objective observers would call top 10 worthy.

The rest of his career he is an average QB relative to his peers i.e. the modern NFL where all QBs stats are inflated. Quit comparing him with quarterbacks from the 70's and 80's.

Here is his QBR rankings his entire career ranked against his peers.

2011 Rank 20th.
2012 Rank 21st.
2013 Rank 17th.
2014 Rank 22nd.
2015 Rank 3rd.
2016 Rank 20th.

I know there are a few players that might be ahead with minimal attempts so if you take out 3-4 of those guys a year he is consistently between 15 and 20th. What does that make him?! An average QB at best....nowhere near the top 10.

Let's also realize that he has the best Bengals WR in history to throw to and yet he can't be better than an avg qb besides the one anomaly season.

Let's also realize that he has been a complete and utter bum in the playoffs. Besides statistics watching him throughout his entire career he just doesn't pass the eye test. No matter which way you slice it....stats, playoffs, eye test, he is an average QB at best. It is what it is.....time for an upgrade if we want a legit shot at winning it all.

[Socal Bengals fan]

average at best..

[Rhinocero23]

(12-02-2017, 04:39 PM)CornerBlitz Wrote: People attempting to claim that Dalton is a top 10 QB with a good O-Line are delusional. He's had 1 year his entire career that objective observers would call top 10 worthy.

The rest of his career he is an average QB relative to his peers i.e. the modern NFL where all QBs stats are inflated. Quit comparing him with quarterbacks from the 70's and 80's.

Here is his QBR rankings his entire career ranked against his peers.

2011 Rank 20th.
2012 Rank 21st.
2013 Rank 17th.
2014 Rank 22nd.
2015 Rank 3rd.
2016 Rank 20th.

I know there are a few players that might be ahead with minimal attempts so if you take out 3-4 of those guys a year he is consistently between 15 and 20th. What does that make him?! An average QB at best....nowhere near the top 10.

Let's also realize that he has the best Bengals WR in history to throw to and yet he can't be better than an avg qb besides the one anomaly season.



Let's also realize that he has been a complete and utter bum in the playoffs. Besides statistics watching him throughout his entire career he just doesn't pass the eye test. No matter which way you slice it....stats, playoffs, eye test, he is an average QB at best. It is what it is.....time for an upgrade if we want a legit shot at winning it all.

Accurate.

[J24]

(12-02-2017, 04:39 PM)CornerBlitz Wrote: People attempting to claim that Dalton is a top 10 QB with a good O-Line are delusional. He's had 1 year his entire career that objective observers would call top 10 worthy.

The rest of his career he is an average QB relative to his peers i.e. the modern NFL where all QBs stats are inflated.  Quit comparing him with quarterbacks from the 70's and 80's.  

Here is his QBR rankings his entire career ranked against his peers.

2011 Rank 20th.
2012 Rank 21st.
2013 Rank 17th.
2014 Rank 22nd.
2015 Rank 3rd.
2016 Rank 20th.

I know there are a few players that might be ahead with minimal attempts so if you take out 3-4 of those guys a year he is consistently between 15 and 20th. What does that make him?! An average QB at best....nowhere near the top 10.

Let's also realize that he has the best Bengals WR in history to throw to and yet he can't be better than an avg qb besides the one anomaly season.

Let's also realize that he has been a complete and utter bum in the playoffs. Besides statistics watching him throughout his entire career he just doesn't pass the eye test. No matter which way you slice it....stats, playoffs, eye test, he is an average QB at best. It is what it is.....time for an upgrade if we want a legit shot at winning it all.

Wait are you talking QBR or QB rating because their is a huge difference?

[J24]

(12-02-2017, 10:27 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Actually I chose 50 because it is a nice round number that would include Dalton's stats and was enough attempts to have an impact on a team's YPA. It was no underhanded attempt of slighting Andy as I picked EVERY QB that fit the criteria; it appears your criteria was to pick and choose those that had a lower YPC than Andy.  Are you sure you understand how averages work?

I am not the one that said consistent running game, the post that I responded to that got the Dalton Duo (Shake and Brownshoe) in a tizzy said consistent ; the other half of the Dalton Duo decided to change consistent to good to fit his narrative.

And some would say that a WR corp that has AJ Green and me is great. Giving your opinions the benefit of the doubt you can come up with about 3 years that Andy was above average (in most cases slightly) when he wasn't surrounded by talented players.

As to Cousins he was number 2 in passing yards prior to Thursday and as to 99.6 isn't "that much better" than 92.5 then I'm sure you'd agree than Andy is having a season more similar to Jacoby Brisset than Kirk Cousins. They only reason Cousins is not in MVP talks is because his team is struggling; he's doing great. It reminds me of the time someone in the forum tried to say Andy was better than Kirk because of contract situation. 

I get that your role in the forum is to be lead Dalton Defender, but it's good to look at things rationally from time to time. Nothing in the original post that I responded to has been disproven; unless one wants to try to make the argument that a rushing attack that is top half in the league in yardage and TDs is not consistent (regular/ dependable/steady).

But enough of the back and forth, as I realize the Dalton Duo will be on cue to defend all things Dalton including this very thread when it was stated that Andy requires a good linen consistent runners, and elite receivers to crack the Top 10 as the only time he has done it in his 7 year career was the year he had all three.   

He was actually top 5 but who is counting.

[grampahol]

Let's cut to the chase, in NFL history there has been ONE (1) QB to rush for 1000 yards, Michael Vick and since then he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire.. It's a basically irrelevant stat most seasons for most teams. 
If your QB is rushing for a lot of yards it generally means you have some serious problems..

Confidence index schmonfident schmindex.. We should mint a coin with In Andy We Trust Sometimes.. Sometimes Not.. It'd have to be a big coin.. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-03-2017, 03:10 AM)Jakeypoo Wrote: He was actually top 5 but who is counting.

For 3/4 of a season. Start carving his bust for Canton!

[Shake n Blake]

(12-03-2017, 02:58 AM)Jakeypoo Wrote: Wait are you talking QBR or QB rating because their is a huge difference?

He used ESPN's QBR. Probably because Andy ranks much better in actual passer rating:

2011: 20th
2012: 13th
2013: 15th
2014: 25th
2015: 2nd
2016: 15th
2017: 15th

[Shake n Blake]

(12-03-2017, 12:08 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: For 3/4 of a season. Start carving his bust for Canton!

No one is saying he's HOF bound. Just that we have a good one. And not just because he had a career year in 2015.

Lions fans love Matthew Stafford. You want to know how he's ranked in passer rating on a yearly basis?

2009: 29th
2010: DNQ
2011: 5th
2012: 22nd
2013: 19th
2014: 21st
2015: 9th
2016: 13th
2017: 9th

Is this really any better than Andy? 

[Socal Bengals fan]

Lions fans love Stafford because he throws a pretty accurate football, hangs in the pocket until the very last second, and doesnt decide who he is throwing too before the ball is snapped. average at beast. find me a non Bengals fan that thinks otherwise...

[Shake n Blake]

^^ Yet the results aren't any different. Hmm... I wonder how Dalton produces with so many limitations. Must be 100% AJ Green. Even though Dalton's performance doesn't dip much when Green is out. This is really puzzling.

Maybe Lions fans love Stafford because they don't have unreasonably high standards, they don't pin their history of sucking on the QB, and they can actually appreciate a QB who is "good" but rarely "great".

[grampahol]

(12-03-2017, 01:31 PM)Socal Bengals fan Wrote: Lions fans love Stafford because he throws a pretty accurate football,  hangs in the pocket until the very last second,  and doesnt decide who he is throwing too  before the ball is snapped.  average at beast. find me a non Bengals fan that thinks otherwise...

I know a few Lions fans who would just as soon see Stafford's head on a pike, but nobody ever accused Lions fans of not seeing things through rose colored glasses..