After next year, Atkins/Dunlap/MJ are all free agents

[THE PISTONS]

(12-13-2017, 04:29 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think it will be cheaper to pick up a good center in FA vs a guard. Plus, this draft looks strongest in guard prospects compared to center and OT.

FA center prospects that are better than Bodine:
Richburg (NYG)
Jensen (BAL)
Spencer Long (WAS)
Sullivan (LAR)
Linsley (GB)
Evan Smith (TB)

Only two (Smith and Sullivan) are over the age of 27.

I can't imagine all of these guys getting over $7+ mill a year. I would bet at least one could be had for $5 mill a year or less.

I looked at some of those guys.

Richburg - #14 Center - Average by PFF.
Jensen is the #8 Center
Long - #21 Center - Rated Poor but still better than Bodine.
Sillivan - #13 Center - Rated Average - 32 years old. GREAT signing by the Rams.
Linsley - #22 Center - Rated Poor but still better than Bodine.
Smith - #22 Guard. Rated Average.

Bodine - #31 Center. Rated Poor.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-13-2017, 04:39 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I looked at some of those guys.

Richburg - #14 Center - Average by PFF.
Jensen is the #8 Center
Long - #21 Center - Rated Poor but still better than Bodine.
Sillivan - #13 Center - Rated Average - 32 years old. GREAT signing by the Rams.
Linsley - #22 Center - Rated Poor but still better than Bodine.
Smith - #22 Guard. Rated Average.

Bodine - #31 Center. Rated Poor.

Jensen also only has just this season proving his worth.

Even if it costs more i think it would be best to go Guard in FA, Center in the Draft early if that is what we have to do.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-13-2017, 04:39 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I looked at some of those guys.

Richburg - #14 Center - Average by PFF.
Jensen is the #8 Center
Long - #21 Center - Rated Poor but still better than Bodine.
Sillivan - #13 Center - Rated Average - 32 years old. GREAT signing by the Rams.
Linsley - #22 Center - Rated Poor but still better than Bodine.
Smith - #22 Guard. Rated Average.

Bodine - #31 Center. Rated Poor.

All better than Bodine though. Most by a lot.
Linsley hasn't been as good this year though but has been really good in the past.
Richburg too has been elite in the past, but lower this year.
Doesn't mean they will continue to be average. It could be an outlier rather than a trend.

And when it comes to the draft, it's very rare for a rookie to come in and be top 10.
Look at Pat Elflein for a great example. He is rated at 45.6, #28 C.
Pat Elflein is better than Bodine, but not better than all those centers I listed in FA.
So if you're going to draft one, you may not get what you hoped for, at least not within the first couple years.

EDIT - Is this center class really expected to be a ton better compared to last year? I don't see any prospects that are can't-miss from a center perspective like the Pounceys or Alex Mack. Billy Price, like Elflein, had one year starting experience at center before entering the draft. He may not be quite the elite prospect at center for the NFL like some propose him to be. He may just be like a lot of the guys listed above...just solid. Which is ok, but if you can get a solid center in FA vs the draft, why gamble on the draft like that?

EDIT #2 - If it's a choice between a FA guard and drafted center in the second or third round vs a FA center and a drafted guard in the second or third round, I'm going the latter. And I'm targeting Isaiah Wynn out of Georgia specifically.

[muskiesfan]

Here's the rub, I think fans need to prepare themselves for the fact that we may only keep 1 of those 3 and the one that fits the Mike Brown narrative the most would be Johnson. Mainly because Johnson will cost less than the other 2. If we only keep one, I want it to be Atkins, but with the amount of money he is going to command (and rightfully so) I don't know that Mike Brown will open up the checkbook. We'll bring back Sims, Billings and Glasgow are still on rookie deals, and there's always the (much cheaper) draft every year.

As much as I hated writing all of that and as much as it would piss me off, that has our owner/GM written all over it. Re-sign Johnson on the cheap and look forward to the compensatory picks that Atkins and Dunlap will bring.

[Shouldamapads]

If I was Atkins, I'd hold out and go to a team that gives a shit. I'd state up front, I want out, don't bother tagging me.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-13-2017, 05:44 PM)muskiesfan Wrote: Here's the rub, I think fans need to prepare themselves for the fact that we may only keep 1 of those 3 and the one that fits the Mike Brown narrative the most would be Johnson. Mainly because Johnson will cost less than the other 2. If we only keep one, I want it to be Atkins, but with the amount of money he is going to command (and rightfully so) I don't know that Mike Brown will open up the checkbook. We'll bring back Sims, Billings and Glasgow are still on rookie deals, and there's always the (much cheaper) draft every year.

As much as I hated writing all of that and as much as it would piss me off, that has our owner/GM written all over it. Re-sign Johnson on the cheap and look forward to the compensatory picks that Atkins and Dunlap will bring.

Disagree. I think if it's one of the three, it will be Atkins. He's been consistently elite his whole career and there's no depth on the roster to fill his shoes when it comes to interior pass rush ability. Lawson has showed ability and they drafted Willis too, so I think Mike Brown feels more confident in letting the DEs walk.

[muskiesfan]

(12-13-2017, 05:54 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Disagree. I think if it's one of the three, it will be Atkins. He's been consistently elite his whole career and there's no depth on the roster to fill his shoes when it comes to interior pass rush ability. Lawson has showed ability and they drafted Willis too, so I think Mike Brown feels more confident in letting the DEs walk.

Believe me, I hope if it is only 1 that it's Atkins. Just knowing how Mike Brown likes to do that, I'm not at all confident that's how he would do it.

[Jpoore]

The real question is do u want to keep Dunlap?? I'm not so sure I do. He dosent even rush the passer anymore. He just waits to bat down a pass. I'd look to trade him. Just throw on some tape he just pushes into the rt then sits there waiting.

[*Synric*]

(12-13-2017, 05:54 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Disagree. I think if it's one of the three, it will be Atkins. He's been consistently elite his whole career and there's no depth on the roster to fill his shoes when it comes to interior pass rush ability. Lawson has showed ability and they drafted Willis too, so I think Mike Brown feels more confident in letting the DEs walk.

It's hard to let Dunlap go too because he's the strong side edge. Does it all and gets his hands on balls in the air.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-13-2017, 04:55 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Jensen also only has just this season proving his worth.

Even if it costs more i think it would be best to go Guard in FA, Center in the Draft early if that is what we have to do.

Yeah...I can't really dispute that. But, we need to upgrade atleast 1 offensive line position in free agency.

IF we expect to improve it solely by the draft...then we're going to hurt other spots in the future.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-13-2017, 05:57 PM)muskiesfan Wrote: Believe me, I hope if it is only 1 that it's Atkins. Just knowing how Mike Brown likes to do that, I'm not at all confident that's how he would do it.

But by using that logic, the Bengals would have never extended AJ Green because he would have been considered "too expensive".
Mike Brown pays good money for players he deems are perennial studs.
Heck, he's already given Atkins a heck of a contract before, so it shows he's willing to shell out good money for him.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-13-2017, 05:16 PM)ochocincos Wrote: All better than Bodine though. Most by a lot.
Linsley hasn't been as good this year though but has been really good in the past.
Richburg too has been elite in the past, but lower this year.
Doesn't mean they will continue to be average. It could be an outlier rather than a trend.

And when it comes to the draft, it's very rare for a rookie to come in and be top 10.
Look at Pat Elflein for a great example. He is rated at 45.6, #28 C.
Pat Elflein is better than Bodine, but not better than all those centers I listed in FA.
So if you're going to draft one, you may not get what you hoped for, at least not within the first couple years.

EDIT - Is this center class really expected to be a ton better compared to last year? I don't see any prospects that are can't-miss from a center perspective like the Pounceys or Alex Mack. Billy Price, like Elflein, had one year starting experience at center before entering the draft. He may not be quite the elite prospect at center for the NFL like some propose him to be. He may just be like a lot of the guys listed above...just solid. Which is ok, but if you can get a solid center in FA vs the draft, why gamble on the draft like that?

EDIT #2 - If it's a choice between a FA guard and drafted center in the second or third round vs a FA center and a drafted guard in the second or third round, I'm going the latter. And I'm targeting Isaiah Wynn out of Georgia specifically.

Good post Ocho, definately will take longer for the drafted Center to come along, i can understand your point.

Could go either way really, i just believe a guy like Billy Price would instantly be better than Blodine and could
grow into a probowl type Center down the road.

(12-13-2017, 05:54 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Disagree. I think if it's one of the three, it will be Atkins. He's been consistently elite his whole career and there's no depth on the roster to fill his shoes when it comes to interior pass rush ability. Lawson has showed ability and they drafted Willis too, so I think Mike Brown feels more confident in letting the DEs walk.

Agree with this for sure, think some go a little overboard on MB's cheapness at times.

He will bring back Geno over MJ.

(12-13-2017, 06:05 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Yeah...I can't really dispute that. But, we need to upgrade atleast 1 offensive line position in free agency.

IF we expect to improve it solely by the draft...then we're going to hurt other spots in the future.

Very true.

[Jpoore]

(12-13-2017, 05:16 PM)ochocincos Wrote: All better than Bodine though. Most by a lot.
Linsley hasn't been as good this year though but has been really good in the past.
Richburg too has been elite in the past, but lower this year.
Doesn't mean they will continue to be average. It could be an outlier rather than a trend.

And when it comes to the draft, it's very rare for a rookie to come in and be top 10.
Look at Pat Elflein for a great example. He is rated at 45.6, #28 C.
Pat Elflein is better than Bodine, but not better than all those centers I listed in FA.
So if you're going to draft one, you may not get what you hoped for, at least not within the first couple years.

EDIT - Is this center class really expected to be a ton better compared to last year? I don't see any prospects that are can't-miss from a center perspective like the Pounceys or Alex Mack. Billy Price, like Elflein, had one year starting experience at center before entering the draft. He may not be quite the elite prospect at center for the NFL like some propose him to be. He may just be like a lot of the guys listed above...just solid. Which is ok, but if you can get a solid center in FA vs the draft, why gamble on the draft like that?

EDIT #2 - If it's a choice between a FA guard and drafted center in the second or third round vs a FA center and a drafted guard in the second or third round, I'm going the latter. And I'm targeting Isaiah Wynn out of Georgia specifically.

Billy price is a can't miss center. He's better than Mack. He can also play at a high nfl level at both guard and center, which is a xtremely rare.

[muskiesfan]

(12-13-2017, 06:16 PM)ochocincos Wrote: But by using that logic, the Bengals would have never extended AJ Green because he would have been considered "too expensive".
Mike Brown pays good money for players he deems are perennial studs.
Heck, he's already given Atkins a heck of a contract before, so it shows he's willing to shell out good money for him.

The differences being is that Brown has a history of paying money to skill positions like WR. Geno will be 30 next season and 31 the year after. I don't know that Brown will be willing to shell out big dollars to a DT that is going into his 30s.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-13-2017, 06:26 PM)Jpoore Wrote: Billy price is a can't miss center. He's better than Mack. He can also play at a high nfl level at both guard and center, which is a xtremely rare.

I view a "can't-miss" prospect to be someone that is a considered so by nearly everyone out there, especially draft experts.
Can you provide proof that many analysts think Price is a can't-miss prospect and is expected to be better than Mack? Because I've not seen anything stating so.

[BengalChris]

(12-13-2017, 02:40 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The Bengals can start to plan around this and mitigate it now...so we don't have what happened to the offensive line happen on the defensive line.

What I would do is waive MJ after the season and use his money to sign Norwell. Then sign a Center like Jensen so that we don't have to use most of our draft picks on the offensive line. ie Use free agency to improve the offensive line. Plus, you know these guys can be good players at the NFL level.

Then, that frees us up to take a pass rusher like Chubb. Or a DT like Wilkens. Or a LB like Smith in the 1st Round of the draft.

Having to reach for offensive lineman could really hurt other parts of the team that are going to be having issues.

Atkins will be tough to keep. The franchise tag is $15+ million a year.

Not managing this situation correctly and making panic draft moves on the offensive line is how we could slip back into a 3 win team.

Sadly Mike Brown has a history of panic draft moves. The Ross pick last year smells of panic and I wrote about that on draft day.

[BengalChris]

(12-13-2017, 06:16 PM)ochocincos Wrote: But by using that logic, the Bengals would have never extended AJ Green because he would have been considered "too expensive".
Mike Brown pays good money for players he deems are perennial studs.
Heck, he's already given Atkins a heck of a contract before, so it shows he's willing to shell out good money for him.

Yeah, well, Atkins is older now and has had ACL surgery. Whit was one the top LTs in the league, but he got old in Mike Brown's eye, so he's gone. Atkins will be gone too.

Ogbuehi was drafted to replace Whit, yet even though the team knew Ogbuehi was a bust they low balled Whit. Typical Mike Brown decision making. Seen it before and it's all too predictable.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-15-2017, 04:08 AM)BengalChris Wrote: Sadly Mike Brown has a history of panic draft moves. The Ross pick last year smells of panic and I wrote about that on draft day.

I disagree, John Ross was my favorite Receiver in that draft from play on the field. He was the fastest, quickest,
had the best hands, had the widest route tree and was the best redzone threat in the country.

Injury was his only concern and who would know it would be this bad and the coaches would refuse to use him?

If this was a panic pick so was AJ Green. Cause we needed a WR badly at that time.

(12-15-2017, 04:13 AM)BengalChris Wrote: Yeah, well, Atkins is older now and has had ACL surgery. Whit was one the top LTs in the league, but he got old in Mike Brown's eye, so he's gone. Atkins will be gone too.

Ogbuehi was drafted to replace Whit, yet even though the team knew Ogbuehi was a bust they low balled Whit. Typical Mike Brown decision making. Seen it before and it's all too predictable.

Lets see if MB steps aside or not before making these predictions eh.

The only way i see us not re-signing Geno is if we draft Wilkens DT Clemson in the first.

[Interceptor]

2018 will be the best defensive season we've ever had in the history of this franchise.....

[Utts]

Geno is going to need a bigger bank.