Best and worst potential NFL head coach openings in 2018

[THE PISTONS]

8. Cincinnati Bengals

Being entrusted with the Bengals job is like becoming the night watchman at a low-budget museum. As long as you don't screw up horrifically, you'll be able to keep the job for about as long as you want. Heck, even if you do an awful job, you're probably going to get some time. Marvin Lewis has had the job for 14 years without a playoff victory, of course, but think about the guys before him. Bruce Coslet made it into a fifth year with a 21-39 record. He replaced David Shula, who made it nearly five years himself with a 19-52 mark. Cincinnati moves at a glacial pace.

The flip side, of course, is that it's difficult to really do a great job as the Bengals' steward. You won't be investing much in free agency, where disappointing recent low-cost signings like A.J. Hawk and Kevin Minter won't be encouraging owner Mike Brown to open up his checkbook. Questionable decisions, perhaps driven by a modest budget, have seen the Bengals shed talented players at wide receiver (Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu) and along the offensive line (Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler) in consecutive offseasons.

It's fair to note that six awful quarters have the Bengals here -- if Cincinnati had held onto its lead against the Steelers and shown up on Sunday against the Bears, it would be 7-6 and in the thick of the AFC wild-card race on a four-game winning streak. Lewis might be negotiating an extension.

At 5-8, though, it feels like we've exhausted the possibilities with this Bengals team. There are plenty of big names on defense, but Cincinnati is 19th in defensive DVOA, thanks in part to playing the league's easiest slate of offenses. The Andy Dalton breakout from 2015 looks more and more like an outlier, even if his level of play has risen slightly from his 2011-2014 beginnings. Do you want to take this job knowing that you may not have any other quarterback options besides Dalton and AJ McCarron?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21759278/ranking-best-nfl-potential-head-coach-openings-2018

[Nicomo Cosca]

I know the Browns have like a million early picks in the draft, and some hope with their new GM, but Cleveland being the 2nd most desirable is quite a stretch, IMO.

[wcu]

I don’t disagree with the Bengals’ ranking in the list. However, you’d have to think Cleveland would be dead last. It’s where coaching careers go to die. You’d better believe I wouldn’t touch them with a 10 foot pole if I were a coach. I still can’t believe that Hugh signed with them, especially with how familiar he has to be with their franchise. He would have been much better served waiting it out another year.

[Big Boss]

I think the job security aspect is very desirable, and it can't be discounted. And for what it's worth, Marvin had this team on the cusp of a playoff victory several times during his tenure. So while the lack of free agency spending and a tiny scouting department are not attractive prospects, we have quantifiable proof that a head coach can succeed despite those things.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-14-2017, 12:57 PM)Big Boss Wrote: I think the job security aspect is very desirable, and it can't be discounted.  And for what it's worth, Marvin had this team on the cusp of a playoff victory several times during his tenure.  So while the lack of free agency spending and a tiny scouting department are not attractive prospects, we have quantifiable proof that a head coach can succeed despite those things.

The job security aspect is kind of like a union job. You may not make the most money, but you know you'll have a job.

The lack of free agent signings is a big detriment.

re: Cleveland - They're willing to spend money. IF they could just get the right personnel, I could see them turning things around and winning a playoff game before us.

[Antares]

(12-14-2017, 12:57 PM)Big Boss Wrote: I think the job security aspect is very desirable, and it can't be discounted.  And for what it's worth, Marvin had this team on the cusp of a playoff victory several times during his tenure.  So while the lack of free agency spending and a tiny scouting department are not attractive prospects, we have quantifiable proof that a head coach can succeed despite those things.

Almost winning a playoff off game or two is a pretty crappy legacy. After 15 years some of it with Super Bowl talent Marvin has accumulated exactly zero signature wins. We have a head coach who is remembered more for his losses than his wins. And  on top of that, he has given more victories to the Pittsburgh Steelers than any coach in history.

That said, I predict that the Bengals 2018 coach will be named Marvin Lewis.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-14-2017, 01:27 PM)Antares Wrote: Almost winning a playoff off game or two is a pretty crappy legacy. After 15 years some of it with Super Bowl talent Marvin has accumulated exactly zero signature wins. We have a head coach who is remembered more for his losses than his wins. And  on top of that, he has given more victories to the Pittsburgh Steelers than any coach in history.

That said, I predict that the Bengals 2018 coach will be named Marvin Lewis.

I'd say our roster only had SB level talent for about 2 of his years here...then most of it left in free agency.

[TSwigZ]

Shit I’d take that job in Cleveland over cincy with the amount of draft picks and cap room plus the chance to change history and revamp a team that hasn’t came alive since before they came back. Honestly there’s probably better odds they win a playoff game before we do and they’re sitting at 0-13

[*PhilHos*]

Another thing to think about, imagine being THE coach that gets the Bengals or the Browns into the Super Bowl. You're most likely going to end up with a legendary status.

[Antares]

(12-14-2017, 01:37 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I'd say our roster only had SB level talent for about 2 of his years here...then most of it left in free agency.

So it's okay to squander Super Bowl talent if you only do it twice? They have had equal or superior talent to the Pittsburgh Steelers for most of Marvins career. Marvin has played them  32 times and lost 24 of them. An NFL record. If you enjoy getting your arse whipped by Pittsburgh, then bring Marvin back for two more losses in  2018.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-14-2017, 02:20 PM)Antares Wrote: So it's okay to squander Super Bowl talent if you only do it twice? They have had equal or superior talent to the Pittsburgh Steelers for most of Marvins career. Marvin has played them  32 times and lost 24 of them. An NFL record. If you enjoy getting your arse whipped by Pittsburgh, then bring Marvin back for two more losses in  2018.

I would have fired Marvin 4 years ago...BUT the notion that we've had loaded rosters each of his 15 years is pretty false.

Most of the times we've either had a good offense and no defense or a good defense and no offense.

The year we melted down in the playoffs against the Steelers was a pretty complete team.

But, it goes back to any front office that retains an 0-6 coach in the playoffs for a chance to go 0-7...isn't primarily concerned with a Super Bowl.

A LOT of teams won't keep a coach after 3 playoff losses and no wins.

[CKwi88]

(12-14-2017, 01:37 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I'd say our roster only had SB level talent for about 2 of his years here...then most of it left in free agency.

Outside of Whitworth, who left that was "super bowl talent?"


As to the OP, the one that stuck out most to me was the Giants being so high. I guess it might be contingent on if Manning comes back, because if not that place is an absolute dumpster fire right now. They're the Browns with slightly more talent and none of the draft capital.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-14-2017, 02:44 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Outside of Whitworth, who left that was "super bowl talent?"


As to the OP, the one that stuck out most to me was the Giants being so high. I guess it might be contingent on if Manning comes back, because if not that place is an absolute dumpster fire right now. They're the Browns with slightly more talent and none of the draft capital.

Marvin Jones, Sanu, Zeitler, Smith (the 1st time), Reggie Nelson were all big losses that haven't been replaced. So with Whitworth, we got worse at 6 positions.

People who say that Lafell replaced Jones miss the big picture of Jones speed opened the offense up.

Take 6 above average to good to great players who leave and replace them with guys who all but Nelson's replacement grade as Poor by PFF...and you get much worse.

[Antares]

(12-14-2017, 02:44 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Outside of Whitworth, who left that was "super bowl talent?"


As to the OP, the one that stuck out most to me was the Giants being so high. I guess it might be contingent on if Manning comes back, because if not that place is an absolute dumpster fire right now. They're the Browns with slightly more talent and none of the draft capital.

How many games has Marvin simply blown due to poor coaching? His team behaving like a mob, blowing all his timeouts, failing to take timeouts to allow your team to have time when they get the ball back, totally dumbass penalties, no ability to make second half adjustments. Changing defensive play calling  when you have a lead allowing your opponent to  Come back. He's a mess. 

[CKwi88]

(12-14-2017, 03:03 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Marvin Jones, Sanu, Zeitler, Smith (the 1st time), Reggie Nelson were all big losses that haven't been replaced. So with Whitworth, we got worse at 6 positions.

People who say that Lafell replaced Jones miss the big picture of Jones speed opened the offense up.

Take 6 above average to good to great players who leave and replace them with guys who all but Nelson's replacement grade as Poor by PFF...and you get much worse.

Calling any of those players "super bowl talents" is being generous at best.

I think we're on the same page here in that the management of the Bengals is ass, but acting as if they simply allowed blue chip players to walk isn't exactly being fair.

The front office tried to emulate franchises like Green Bay in that they retain their best players that they can, and draft and groom players to take over for those they can't. They've done the former, but haven't been able to replicate some of the good drafts they had in the past.

[*pally*]

His analysis lost all credibility when he ranked the Browns second

[THE PISTONS]

(12-14-2017, 04:27 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Calling any of those players "super bowl talents" is being generous at best.

I think we're on the same page here in that the management of the Bengals is ass, but acting as if they simply allowed blue chip players to walk isn't exactly being fair.

The front office tried to emulate franchises like Green Bay in that they retain their best players that they can, and draft and groom players to take over for those they can't. They've done the former, but haven't been able to replicate some of the good drafts they had in the past.

You need a bunch of above average to good players to win a Super Bowl...Jones, Sanu, Nelson, Whitworth, Zeitler, and Andre Smith were all above average to Good players with the Bengals.

And...they were replaced with lower quality players.

But yeah...IF the guys they drafted produced at a high level, the losses wouldn't be such a huge deal.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-14-2017, 12:57 PM)Big Boss Wrote: I think the job security aspect is very desirable, and it can't be discounted.  And for what it's worth, Marvin had this team on the cusp of a playoff victory several times during his tenure.  So while the lack of free agency spending and a tiny scouting department are not attractive prospects, we have quantifiable proof that a head coach can succeed despite those things.

True and even a coach that is defensive minded can succeed even while sticking his nose in the offense, essentially
handcuffing his Offensive Coordinators in 2nd halfs of games, even while starting less talented vets over more talented
younger players on both sides of the ball. Even while having an O-line coach that is stuck back in the 90's and i could
go on and on.

As long as the next HC doesn't keep sabotaging himself he should be successful. Hell the last one sabotaged himself
all the damn time and still had lots of success in the regular season.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-14-2017, 05:43 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: True and even a coach that is defensive minded can succeed even while sticking his nose in the offense, essentially
handcuffing his Offensive Coordinators in 2nd halfs of games, even while starting less talented vets over more talented
younger players on both sides of the ball. Even while having an O-line coach that is stuck back in the 90's and i could
go on and on.

As long as the next HC doesn't keep sabotaging himself he should be successful. Hell the last one sabotaged himself
all the damn time and still had lots of success in the regular season.

There are some unknowns though. The lack of scouts is likely troubling to candidates. Lack of spending on free agents too.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-14-2017, 05:49 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: There are some unknowns though. The lack of scouts is likely troubling to candidates. Lack of spending on free agents too.

Yes, those are the two things that would deter coaching prospects from coming here.

Maybe if MB steps aside and hands things over to Katie both of these things might change.