'It’s time for the Bengals to alter their offseason mindset.'

[SunsetBengal]

(01-17-2018, 01:01 PM)ochocincos Wrote: If MJ, Hopkins, Williams, LaFell, Jones, Vigil, Ogbuehi, Ericson, and Nickerson are all cut, that's nine spots the Bengals would have to replace. Add in Minter, Sims, Bodine, Hill, Winston, Huber, Eifert, Andre, and Chris Smith, and you're talking about nine more. That totals 18 players.
At best, you'll see the Bengals get 10 draft picks (unless they trade back to acquire more).
Say all 10 make the roster, that's still eight spots available.
The Bengals will not sign eight new FAs, let alone all of them being better than what they have.

I don't mind guys like Hopkins and Vigil being depth. They just are poor starters. The big thing (for me anyway) is freeing up the cap hogs who are underperformers like the three I mentioned. You can't replace everyone in one offseason, so you have to identify a select few to start with and add new faces over a few years.

I don't know if the Bengals are capable of turning over that many roster spots, but the Jags sure as heck did.  From the end of 2016, to the start of 2017 season, they signed a total of 12 FAs, they cut 5 players from their 2016 roster prior to the draft.  Not to mention the draft, UDFAs, etc.

It can be done.  All that is needed is a plan, and a motivation to win.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-17-2018, 01:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I think the point is that when you start looking at replacing these guys with other guys the same price you can't find anything better.

It is harder than many people think to roll over half of the roster every single year.  Teams benefit from cohesion.

I never said anything about having a huge turnover every year.  Doing something that drastic on an annual basis would be foolhardy.  But, in order to go along with the high turnover on the coaching staff, why not retool the roster with player having the traits that the new coaches would like to see?

[*ochocincos*]

(01-17-2018, 01:12 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I don't know if the Bengals are capable of turning over that many roster spots, but the Jags sure as heck did.  From the end of 2016, to the start of 2017 season, they signed a total of 12 FAs, they cut 5 players from their 2016 roster prior to the draft.  Not to mention the draft, UDFAs, etc.

It can be done.  All that is needed is a plan, and a motivation to win.

Fair enough, it CAN, but it's not realistic to replace that many on one roster, especially one that ended up 7-9, not a 3-13 team.
A 7-9 team needs fewer players replaced compared to a 3-13 team.
Plus, the Jags had $75 mill in cap space and used that to sign Campbell, Bouye, and Barry Church. Bouye has a contract averaging $13.5 mill, Campbell's averages $15 mill, and Church's averages $6.5 mill. Collectively, that's $35 mill per year average.
Three impactful starters for $35 mill.

They drafted the following starters:
Fournette, Robinson (who played poor actually)
Westbrook, Smoot, and Myrick played specific roles with limited snaps but not starters.

They traded for Dareus mid-season because they had cap space left to absorb his contract. Dareus counts $10+ mill a year for the next four seasons after this one but no dead cap after 2018.

Ultimately, the Jags were able to have such a good turnaround because their team didn't really suffer many critical injuries aside from Allen Robinson. Therefore, they didn't have to rely on backup players as much and they had very good starters.

The Bengals were in a spot where backup-level players were starters, and therefore they played poor. You can't expect a team to have 52 above-average-or-better players on the roster, especially with a salary cap system.
Demote the cheap poor starters back to backup where they belong and upgrade the starter spots through FA and the draft. That's much more feasible to actually happen and get the team where they need to be.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-17-2018, 01:35 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Fair enough, it CAN, but it's not realistic to replace that many on one roster, especially one that ended up 7-9, not a 3-13 team.
A 7-9 team needs fewer players replaced compared to a 3-13 team.
Plus, the Jags had $75 mill in cap space and used that to sign Campbell, Bouye, and Barry Church. Bouye has a contract averaging $13.5 mill, Campbell's averages $15 mill, and Church's averages $6.5 mill. Collectively, that's $35 mill per year average.
Three impactful starters for $35 mill.

They drafted the following starters:
Fournette, Robinson (who played poor actually)
Westbrook, Smoot, and Myrick played specific roles with limited snaps but not starters.

They traded for Dareus mid-season because they had cap space left to absorb his contract. Dareus counts $10+ mill a year for the next four seasons after this one but no dead cap after 2018.

Ultimately, the Jags were able to have such a good turnaround because their team didn't really suffer many critical injuries aside from Allen Robinson. Therefore, they didn't have to rely on backup players as much and they had very good starters.

The Bengals were in a spot where backup-level players were starters, and therefore they played poor. You can't expect a team to have 52 above-average-or-better players on the roster, especially with a salary cap system.
Demote the cheap poor starters back to backup where they belong and upgrade the starter spots through FA and the draft. That's much more feasible to actually happen and get the team where they need to be.

You don't need 52 above average or better players on the roster.  Heck, let's just start with 22..

[sandwedge]

(01-17-2018, 12:44 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Pat Sims and Kevin Minter don't need cut. They are set to hit FA in March.
DK has too much dead cap that the team would be willing to absorb, at least for the next couple seasons. He should be considered in 2020 though if he hasn't improved his game.
Nick Vigil, Ogbuehi, Nickerson, Ericson, and Hopkins are all on rookie contracts. It's not very expensive to keep them, but none of them should be starters for 2018 IMO. And for Ogbuehi especially, it's put up or shut up time in 2018 because if he sucks again, no reason to pick up his 5th year option and let him go elsewhere in 2019.

I think people are too hard on Shawn Williams because they want someone who is better in coverage and causing turnovers. He's still a solid safety, but the Bengals would be wise to find someone better in pass coverage than Williams. He's an in-the-box safety who should rotate in and out as needed. I'd also like to see him get some snaps as a nickel LB.

I disagree with your last paragraph. Why wouldn't you want someone better in coverage and causing turnovers, I'll add tackling?  If you can find someone or draft an upgrade over Williams then you do it. 

[Shake n Blake]

(01-17-2018, 11:01 AM)fredtoast Wrote: And at that time we also thought we would have to pay a lot to re-sign Eifert.

Zeitler was very good, but like Eric Steinbach years ago he was not worth the money the Browns were willing to pay him.  The big mistake was letting whit walk, but again this is what good teams do.  They let older players walk a year too early instead of a year too late.  Our problem was that the young guy we had drafted as a replacement was a complete flop.

I almost completely agree with this post.

Our only difference is that...

1. We had multiple flops along the o-line, not just Ogbuehi.
2. We knew this and we didn't hedge our bets by bringing in new guys. Andre Smith wasn't enough. Especially after losing guys like Whit and Z.
3. We retained the o-line coach after his guys flopped hard in 2016. Not to mention the struggles in pass pro or the decade-long struggles to run the ball.

Most people saw the 2017 disaster coming, based on the 2016 disaster which was followed by what can only be deemed as neglect of the position in the offseason.

[fredtoast]

(01-17-2018, 01:42 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I disagree with your last paragraph. Why wouldn't you want someone better in coverage and causing turnovers, I'll add tackling?  If you can find someone or draft an upgrade over Williams then you do it. 

We all want better players at every position, but we need to put a higher priority on replacing our poor players before we start commiting resources to replacing average players.  

It is not as easy to replace starter quality players in the NFL as some people seem to think.   In the ten years fron '06 to '15 there were 345 players taken in the third round.  Less than half of them (162) started more than 20 games in their NFL career.  Only  about a quarter (99 of 345) was a starter (started at least 8 games) for more than two seasons in their career.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-17-2018, 01:39 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: You don't need 52 above average or better players on the roster.  Heck, let's just start with 22..

Not even the Jags have above average players at all starting positions, at least according to PFF.

Jags WRs: All "average" at best this season with Allen Robinson being out
Bortles: Average
TE: Average at best
RBs: Average from all-around, but Fournette had some truly elite moments as a runner, so we'll say above average.
FB: Poor
C: Above average
RG: Poor
LG: Below Average
LT: Poor
RT: Average

CBs: Above average to elite
Safeties: Above average
LBs: Above average to elite
DTs: Above average
DEs: Above average to elite

So out of the 22 starters, you see the entire defense has above-average players (thus why their defense was elite) but the offense only had above average play from Linder at C and you can consider Fournette too if it's from RB production standpoint but he was rated average on PFF for other things that I don't see listed. Let's be generous and say two above average starters on offense.
That's a total of 13 above-average players.
Five "average" players (Bortles, WRs, TE, RT), which takes the count to 18 average-or-better.
That leaves four starters (LT, LG, RG, FB) all below average.

So no, you don't need to have 22 above-average-to-elite level players. You just need very few poor performers.
The Bengals had the following below-average starters:
LT
C
RG
RT
WR2
FB
MLB
SLB
NT
CB2 (Kirkpatrick)

That's 10 underperforming starters.

I believe the Bengals have upgrades at RG and CB on the roster already, they just needed more playing time than the coaches were willing to give them.
So cut that number down to 8.
A team like the Jags have shown you can still do really well with a few spots underperforming, so cut 8 down to 5.
Pick up 2-3 impactful FAs like Jacksonville did in March 2017, and that number could go down to just a couple.
Replace those remaining with high draft picks on Day 1 and Day 2.

Problem solved...if the replacement players brought in are actually good players.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-17-2018, 01:42 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I disagree with your last paragraph. Why wouldn't you want someone better in coverage and causing turnovers, I'll add tackling?  If you can find someone or draft an upgrade over Williams then you do it. 

I somewhat agree, but I will say what's better...upgrading a position from average to above average? Or poor to above average?
Where I'm going with that question is what if upgrading safety means not being able to upgrade one of the poor OL positions?

[fredtoast]

(01-17-2018, 01:48 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I almost completely agree with this post.

Our only difference is that...

1. We had multiple flops along the o-line, not just Ogbuehi.
2. We knew this and we didn't hedge our bets by bringing in new guys. Andre Smith wasn't enough. Especially after losing guys like Whit and Z.
3. We retained the o-line coach after his guys flopped hard in 2016. Not to mention the struggles in pass pro or the decade-long struggles to run the ball.

Most people saw the 2017 disaster coming, based on the 2016 disaster which was followed by what can only be deemed as neglect of the position in the offseason.

In over 20 years as O-line coach PA had never had a single player taken in the first two rounds that flopped.  I think that, combined with the fact that Ogbuehi had never had a healthy training camp in his career, gave the team a false sense of hope.  They were just guilty of using the same logic that so many people around here employ when discussing how the past controls the future.  "Since it has not happened yet it will never happen."


And the Bengals under PA had a history of excelling in pass pro not "struggles".

[SunsetBengal]

(01-17-2018, 02:06 PM)ochocincos Wrote: So no, you don't need to have 22 above-average-to-elite level players. You just need very few poor performers.
The Bengals had the following below-average starters:
LT
C
RG
RT
WR2
FB
MLB
SLB
NT
CB2 (Kirkpatrick)

That's 10 underperforming starters.

Okay, now we're getting somewhere.  Earlier in our exchange, when I made a list of player to jettison, pretty much all of those positions was on my list, adding in Williams at FS.

That is when you told me that they couldn't replace that many players, and I pointed to the Jaguars.

Now, perhaps it may be unrealistic to expect the same degree and impact of turnover as the Jags experienced, but I'd at least like to see the team make an earnest effort to improve over a variety of positions.

I'm not saying every positional upgrade has to be "elite" level, just better than what we have.  I feel like you can get by with (according to PFF grades) a mostly "average to above" talented roster, so long as you have a fair sprinkling of "Elite, Very Good, and Good" players in positions of emphasis.

Btw, apologies for cutting off the bulk of your post, that was some fine work you did.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-17-2018, 02:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Okay, now we're getting somewhere.  Earlier in our exchange, when I made a list of player to jettison, pretty much all of those positions was on my list, adding in Williams at FS.

That is when you told me that they couldn't replace that many players, and I pointed to the Jaguars.

Now, perhaps it may be unrealistic to expect the same degree and impact of turnover as the Jags experienced, but I'd at least like to see the team make an earnest effort to improve over a variety of positions.

I'm not saying every positional upgrade has to be "elite" level, just better than what we have.  I feel like you can get by with (according to PFF grades) a mostly "average to above" talented roster, so long as you have a fair sprinkling of "Elite, Very Good, and Good" players in positions of emphasis.

Btw, apologies for cutting off the bulk of your post, that was some fine work you did.

Williams was not an underperformer though, he was average. Actually was rated higher than Iloka for 2017.
I'd be looking to find a new starting LB (or two), C, LT, and RT before looking to replace Williams.
As mentioned, I think the Bengals have replacements for MJ and Jones on the roster already and they are taking up a nice chunk of cap, so that's why I want them cut.
I think Westerman and Redmond showed enough that I'd be ok with either of them starting at RG over Hopkins, but I like Hopkins' versatility to play every position and he's cheap.
I think Boyd can do what LaFell does, so lateral move at worst. I wouldn't be opposed to a WR brought in through FA either.

And you said to replace 18 players, not 8. 18 is not realistic, but 8 is IMO.

[sandwedge]

(01-17-2018, 02:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I somewhat agree, but I will say what's better...upgrading a position from average to above average? Or poor to above average?
Where I'm going with that question is what if upgrading safety means not being able to upgrade one of the poor OL positions?

Definitely need to prioritize, you're right about that.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-17-2018, 02:33 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Williams was not an underperformer though, he was average. Actually was rated higher than Iloka for 2017.
I'd be looking to find a new starting LB (or two), C, LT, and RT before looking to replace Williams.
As mentioned, I think the Bengals have replacements for MJ and Jones on the roster already and they are taking up a nice chunk of cap, so that's why I want them cut.
I think Westerman and Redmond showed enough that I'd be ok with either of them starting at RG over Hopkins, but I like Hopkins' versatility to play every position and he's cheap.
I think Boyd can do what LaFell does, so lateral move at worst. I wouldn't be opposed to a WR brought in through FA either.

And you said to replace 18 players, not 8. 18 is not realistic, but 8 is IMO.

Well, I already mentioned that Williams is just average, when he's fully healthy.  I guess that I just see the Safety position as one where having "good" or better talent really benefits the defense.  Remember Reggie Nelson?  Iloka looked like a future superstar playing next to him, back there.  

As far as I have witnessed, Williams does nothing to elevate the level of play of his teammates.  In addition to being a marvelous "Center Fielder", I feel like a FS in a 4-3 should also be your surest tackler on the team.  I really liked him coming out of Georgia, but I've not seen him develop any of the characteristics that I mentioned.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-17-2018, 02:42 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Well, I already mentioned that Williams is just average, when he's fully healthy.  I guess that I just see the Safety position as one where having "good" or better talent really benefits the defense.  Remember Reggie Nelson?  Iloka looked like a future superstar playing next to him, back there.  

As far as I have witnessed, Williams does nothing to elevate the level of play of his teammates.  In addition to being a marvelous "Center Fielder", I feel like a FS in a 4-3 should also be your surest tackler on the team.  I really liked him coming out of Georgia, but I've not seen him develop any of the characteristics that I mentioned.

That's really the bigger issue. Williams never should have been in consideration for FS. He never was a ball hawk or the most consistent tackler. Rambo was the FS and Williams the SS when they were at Georgia. He's a good in-the-box SS that delivers hard hits. He's never going to be a game changer at FS because it's not his ideal fit, and that's on the Bengals.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-17-2018, 02:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In over 20 years as O-line coach PA had never had a single player taken in the first two rounds that flopped.  I think that, combined with the fact that Ogbuehi had never had a healthy training camp in his career, gave the team a false sense of hope.  They were just guilty of using the same logic that so many people around here employ when discussing how the past controls the future.  "Since it has not happened yet it will never happen."


And the Bengals under PA had a history of excelling in pass pro not "struggles".

The run game results had been weak for a decade+. That alone should be enough to get canned. Add in the 41 sacks allowed in 2016, and it definitely should've been enough. Ignorance is no excuse. They're not fans, they're professionals getting paid to do this. 

[fredtoast]

(01-17-2018, 02:52 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The run game results had been weak for a decade+. That alone should be enough to get canned.

But it is hard to seperate the O-line problems from the RB problems.  Footballoutsiders tries to do this by using a formula that gives the O-line more blame for tackles at the line of scrimmage or in the backfield and giving the RBs more credit for yards gained more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.  According to this formula the Bengals O-line has not been that bad the past decade.

PA got canned because of the massive failure of Ogbuehi, Fisher, and Bodine.  These mistakes were magnified when both Whit and Zeitler left in free agency.  The run game was complete garbage and Dalton was running for his life.  We had one of the worst O-lines I have ever seen play for the Bengals this year, and that is saying a lot.  With these results PA had to go, but PA was a very good O-line coach for many years before that.  He received multiple platitudes from national media sources, and he has already been hired by another NFL team.  He did not deserve the hate he received on these boards for so many years.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Thanks for the article Holic, i completely agree with everything Rapien said. Not as much with the franchise QB part,
but i understand the thought. Dalton is not the problem here but if a talented QB falls to us and the O-line is pretty
much fixed i am definately not against drafting one.

We need to attack FA differently this Offseason for sure. Like Rapien said if we just pick up one or two O-lineman in
FA it will really open the draft. I expect us to bring back Andre, but if we do i think we should add another cause he
has had major problems in the past with staying healthy.

Speed at Linebacker is definately needed and a player like Zac Brown would surely help. Also like the thought of a
speedy receiver in FA like Marquis Lee.

[Bengalholic]

(01-17-2018, 03:24 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Thanks for the article Holic, i completely agree with everything Rapien said. Not as much with the franchise QB part,
but i understand the thought. Dalton is not the problem here but if a talented QB falls to us and the O-line is pretty
much fixed i am definately not against drafting one.

We need to attack FA differently this Offseason for sure. Like Rapien said if we just pick up one or two O-lineman in
FA it will really open the draft. I expect us to bring back Andre, but if we do i think we should add another cause he
has had major problems in the past with staying healthy.

Speed at Linebacker is definately needed and a player like Zac Brown would surely help. Also like the thought of a
speedy receiver in FA like Marquis Lee.

Yea, finding LB's that can hold their own in coverage has to be high on the priority list.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-17-2018, 03:23 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But it is hard to seperate the O-line problems from the RB problems.  Footballoutsiders tries to do this by using a formula that gives the O-line more blame for tackles at the line of scrimmage or in the backfield and giving the RBs more credit for yards gained more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.  According to this formula the Bengals O-line has not been that bad the past decade.

PA got canned because of the massive failure of Ogbuehi, Fisher, and Bodine.  These mistakes were magnified when both Whit and Zeitler left in free agency.  The run game was complete garbage and Dalton was running for his life.  We had one of the worst O-lines I have ever seen play for the Bengals this year, and that is saying a lot.  With these results PA had to go, but PA was a very good O-line coach for many years before that.  He received multiple platitudes from national media sources, and he has already been hired by another NFL team.  He did not deserve the hate he received on these boards for so many years.

He coordinated the run game though, Fred. And how many 2nd round talents at RB do we need to see fail?