Hobson back with his first propaganda piece

[OBX Bengal]

(01-17-2018, 07:30 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I ask this question a lot.  Funny how no one will even TRY to give an example.  Since so many people mclaim it happens all the time you'd think someone could come up with at least ONE clear example.

The truth is this is just another message board with no facts to back it up.

But this is the message board you prefer.

[fredtoast]

(01-18-2018, 01:58 AM)OBX Bengal Wrote: But this is the message board you prefer.

Oops.

I apologize for the typo.  That should say "message board myth".  I did not mean to infer that no statements on this board were ever backed up with facts.  Just the claim that the Bengals have lost a game because Marvin played too conservative with a lead in the second half.

[fredtoast]

(01-18-2018, 01:52 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: A good percentage would be probably 7 of the 18 passes. That's just an educated guess.  I don't do any research myself? What are you talking about. You're the one who posted a generic meaningless stat like 18 passes in the second half against the steelers without giving us any details about those 18 passes. 

I'm not the one who needs to do any research since I didn't mock and deride someone and spew out a worthless stat like you did. Why should I have to produce anything. You're the one who squelched out another meaningless generic stat without giving any details I didn't. 

What do you mean moving the goal posts. When have I ever moved the goal posts as you say. Stop using childish terms to try and deflect your typical idiotic comments. I don't even know what moving the goal posts means nor should I. 

The bottom line is if you're going to spew out stats out of your pie hole back them up with details or else shut your mouth

Why are you being so hateful?

One of the most common complaints about Marvin is that he causes the Bengals to lose games when he plays too conservative with a lead in the second half.  I assume you have heard this claim.

All I am saying is that this is just a myth.  In orderto prove that it is just a myth I have repeatedly asked people to give me an example of when this happened.  And they never can.  So if you want to rage at someone for making a claim with nothing to back it up you should be yelling at everyone that makes this claim instead of at me.

But here is the really bad news for you.  You claim that when sitting on a lead Marvin is being too conservative unless he has Dalton throw the ball over 10 yards downfield 7 times in the second half, and there is not a single QB in the league who throws the ball that far that often even if you include the first half and times when they are behind.  Roethlisberger is the only one that comes close.  He averaged 13.4 pass attempts over ten yards downfield per game.  Only a very few average more than ten per game.  Rivers averaged 12.1.  Brady 11.9. Wilson 11.6. Stafford 10.0.  I did not check every QB in the league but the splits are available on ESPN.com if you want to dispute this claim.

Basically the standard you use to accuse Lewis of being too conservative makes every head coach in the league too conservative.




Next.

[wolverine515151]

(01-18-2018, 02:40 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Why are you being so hateful?

One of the most common complaints about Marvin is that he causes the Bengals to lose games when he plays too conservative with a lead in the second half.  I assume you have heard this claim.

All I am saying is that this is just a myth.  In orderto prove that it is just a myth I have repeatedly asked people to give me an example of when this happened.  And they never can.  So if you want to rage at someone for making a claim with nothing to back it up you should be yelling at everyone that makes this claim instead of at me.

But here is the really bad news for you.  You claim that when sitting on a lead Marvin is being too conservative unless he has Dalton throw the ball over 10 yards downfield 7 times in the second half, and there is not a single QB in the league who throws the ball that far that often even if you include the first half and times when they are behind.  Roethlisberger is the only one that comes close.  He averaged 13.4 pass attempts over ten yards downfield per game.  Only a very few average more than ten per game.  Rivers averaged 12.1.  Brady 11.9. Wilson 11.6. Stafford 10.0.  I did not check every QB in the league but the splits are available on ESPN.com if you want to dispute this claim.

Basically the standard you use to accuse Lewis of being too conservative makes every head coach in the league too conservative.




Next.

You have only provided stats for other teams. I'm asking specifically when it comes to the bengals in the second half of games how many throws over 10 yards do they make. One game against the steelers isn't enough data to make any assertion about whether we are conservative or not. 

If for example the bengals throw it on average 2 times over 10 yards in second half of games then it means yes we are too conservative. 

When you find the amount of times the bengals throw it over 10 yards in the second half and compare it to the league average I might start to be convinced. Then further the argument by giving the average amount of times we run the ball in the second half and compare that to the league average.

Merely stating that because we threw it 18 times in the second against steelers when we had the lead is insufficient to make any assertion at all.

I'm not going to look up that data because I never used the argument that 18 throws against the steelers proves we arent conservative. You made that assertion so its up to you to prove it with a much more thorough analysis 

The problem is that you made a weak argument using grotesquely insufficient data and then gave the mocking smiley face as if you had just convincingly won the argument with definitive and indisputable evidence.

If you had made that statement and said look I found this stat that the Bengals threw it 18 times in the second half of the game against the steelers. I know it is insufficient data based off of one game and I also know I didn't provide much detail as to how deep those 18 passes were but it might seem to indicate that the bengals are not as conservative as you think they are in the second half of games. If this is how you qualified your assertion you would not have been met with as much derision by me. But that is not the approach you took.

[HarleyDog]

I don't need stats to show me the lack luster effort in the 2nd half. All you really need to do is watch the games. They play different, they look different. Almost as if someone brainwashed the team into thinking an NFL game is only 2 qtrs because the second half normally ends up looking flat, lukewarm and lethargic.

[fredtoast]

(01-18-2018, 05:15 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: You have only provided stats for other teams. I'm asking specifically when it comes to the bengals in the second half of games how many throws over 10 yards do they make. One game against the steelers isn't enough data to make any assertion about whether we are conservative or not. 

If for example the bengals throw it on average 2 times over 10 yards in second half of games then it means yes we are too conservative. 

When you find the amount of times the bengals throw it over 10 yards in the second half and compare it to the league average I might start to be convinced. Then further the argument by giving the average amount of times we run the ball in the second half and compare that to the league average.

Merely stating that because we threw it 18 times in the second against steelers when we had the lead is insufficient to make any assertion at all.

I'm not going to look up that data because I never used the argument that 18 throws against the steelers proves we arent conservative. You made that assertion so its up to you to prove it with a much more thorough analysis 

The problem is that you made a weak argument using grotesquely insufficient data and then gave the mocking smiley face as if you had just convincingly won the argument with definitive and indisputable evidence.

If you had made that statement and said look I found this stat that the Bengals threw it 18 times in the second half of the game against the steelers. I know it is insufficient data based off of one game and I also know I didn't provide much detail as to how deep those 18 passes were but it might seem to indicate that the bengals are not as conservative as you think they are in the second half of games. If this is how you qualified your assertion you would not have been met with as much derision by me. But that is not the approach you took.

Gee I wonder what happened to the posts where I predicted Wolverine would move the goal posts when I proved him wrong and the post where he claimed he did not even know what it meant top move the goalposts?

His is still preserved in my post above where I quoted it, but I am not going to accuse him of deleting it because my post has disappeared also.

Anyway here is where we are.  I have shown that Wolverines standard for "aggressive play calling" is so high that no team in the league would meet it.  I feel that I have done enough to prove his argument is invalid.  So I am not going to jump through anymore hoops.  At this point his position is that Marvin is too conservative in the second half with a lead unless he is more aggressive than every other coach in the league, and that sound absurd to me. 

In fact his claim that the percentage of running plays called does not prove how conservative a team is runs counter to the accepted standard.  Whenever anyone talks about Marvin being too conservative their claim is always that he "runs the ball to much". Announcers and analysts always refer to percentage of runs when talking about how conservative a team is. Footballoutsiders even tracks a specific stat that shows how often a team runs the ball with the lead in the second half of games.  My analysis is in line with all of this.  His claim that this analysis is "grotesquely insufficient" is contrary to what all the posters here and football experts on TV think.

The only statement that has been made with no facts to back it up is "Marvin has lost games because he was too conservat5ive with a lead in the second half."

[fredtoast]

(01-18-2018, 08:32 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: I don't need stats to show me the lack luster effort in the 2nd half. All you really need to do is watch the games. They play different, they look different. Almost as if someone brainwashed the team into thinking an NFL game is only 2 qtrs because the second half normally ends up looking flat, lukewarm and lethargic.

Again we are mixing up two different issues.  Playing poorly is completely different from from conservative play calling.

And for the record this year we won MORE games when we were NOT ahead at halftime (3) than we lost when we had a lead at halftime (2).  Too many people remember the things that support their position and block out the memory of the stuff that does not.

[PDub80]

(01-18-2018, 02:04 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Oops.

I apologize for the typo.  That should say "message board myth".  I did not mean to infer that no statements on this board were ever backed up with facts.  Just the claim that the Bengals have lost a game because Marvin played too conservative with a lead in the second half.

(01-18-2018, 02:40 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Why are you being so hateful?

One of the most common complaints about Marvin is that he causes the Bengals to lose games when he plays too conservative with a lead in the second half.  I assume you have heard this claim.

All I am saying is that this is just a myth.  In orderto prove that it is just a myth I have repeatedly asked people to give me an example of when this happened.  And they never can.  So if you want to rage at someone for making a claim with nothing to back it up you should be yelling at everyone that makes this claim instead of at me.

But here is the really bad news for you.  You claim that when sitting on a lead Marvin is being too conservative unless he has Dalton throw the ball over 10 yards downfield 7 times in the second half, and there is not a single QB in the league who throws the ball that far that often even if you include the first half and times when they are behind.  Roethlisberger is the only one that comes close.  He averaged 13.4 pass attempts over ten yards downfield per game.  Only a very few average more than ten per game.  Rivers averaged 12.1.  Brady 11.9. Wilson 11.6. Stafford 10.0.  I did not check every QB in the league but the splits are available on ESPN.com if you want to dispute this claim.

Basically the standard you use to accuse Lewis of being too conservative makes every head coach in the league too conservative.




Next.

Fred,

If I recall, they have been one of the worst 2nd half scoring teams in the NFL the past few years. Link and a list I made below. I can sort this into 3rd and 4th quarter rankings as well and compile that. That statistic is found in the link below under More Scoring Stats > Offense By Quarter then select your quarter and see the ranking.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/2nd-half-points-per-game

2017 - Tied for 31st with the Colts (Giants were less than 1/2 point behind them for last)
2016 - 27th by a smidgen
2015 - 10th
2014 - 19th
2013 - 13th
2012 - 16th
2011 - 10th
2010 - 17th
2009 - 27th
2008 - 32nd (Carson Injured year)
2007 - 9th
2006 - 12th
2005 - 9th
2004 - 8th
2003 - 21st

Average ranking: 16th. Exactly in the middle

Just to make sure I'm looking at data that we all deem relevant, let me know some statistics that would help in our detective work. I should probably go look game by game at how big the Bengals lead was at the start of the 2nd half or going into the 4th in any game and then break down scoring from there? Anyone, feel free to let me know what you stats you think are relevant and I'll work on it. Time of possession might be an interesting stat here as well.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-18-2018, 08:32 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: I don't need stats to show me the lack luster effort in the 2nd half. All you really need to do is watch the games. They play different, they look different. Almost as if someone brainwashed the team into thinking an NFL game is only 2 qtrs because the second half normally ends up looking flat, lukewarm and lethargic.

It's because of those "journalistic jargons" ol Merv is too smart to fall for.

[wolverine515151]

(01-18-2018, 09:47 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Gee I wonder what happened to the posts where I predicted Wolverine would move the goal posts when I proved him wrong and the post where he claimed he did not even know what it meant top move the goalposts?

His is still preserved in my post above where I quoted it, but I am not going to accuse him of deleting it because my post has disappeared also.

Anyway here is where we are.  I have shown that Wolverines standard for "aggressive play calling" is so high that no team in the league would meet it.  I feel that I have done enough to prove his argument is invalid.  So I am not going to jump through anymore hoops.  At this point his position is that Marvin is too conservative in the second half with a lead unless he is more aggressive than every other coach in the league, and that sound absurd to me. 

In fact his claim that the percentage of running plays called does not prove how conservative a team is runs counter to the accepted standard.  Whenever anyone talks about Marvin being too conservative their claim is always that he "runs the ball to much". Announcers and analysts always refer to percentage of runs when talking about how conservative a team is. Footballoutsiders even tracks a specific stat that shows how often a team runs the ball with the lead in the second half of games.  My analysis is in line with all of this.  His claim that this analysis is "grotesquely insufficient" is contrary to what all the posters here and football experts on TV think.

The only statement that has been made with no facts to back it up is "Marvin has lost games because he was too conservat5ive with a lead in the second half."

I never once said the bengals have to throw more deep balls and run less than every other team. When I said 7 throws over 10 yards in the second half I was making an EDUCATED GUESS based on what I believe the league average was; which in this case I assumed was around 5.8 throws.

What I was after is THE LEAGUE AVERAGE. You are the one the one that has made some garbage up about the bengals needing to be above every team in the league when it comes to throwing deeps passes and not running the ball for them to be considered aggressive

You can start playing word games all you want with yourself. I asked for two pieces of information that give a very good idea how conservative the bengals are in the second half of games. Anything else you provide I am not looking at

Stop evading the questions I have asked for. You just start talking in circles and coming up with nonsense. I'll simplify it so it is impossible for you to not understand. 

I want two pieces of information. You either say yes I can provide that information and prove my point or I cant. It's that simple

1) The percentage of times the bengals throw it over 10 yards in the second half of games compared to the league average.

2) The percentage of times the bengals run the ball in the second half of games compared to the league average

[HarleyDog]

(01-18-2018, 09:56 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Too many people remember the things that support their position and block out the memory of the stuff that does not.

More like people remember pain more than pleasure. But you were close.

[fredtoast]

(01-18-2018, 10:36 AM)PDub80 Wrote: Fred,

If I recall, they have been one of the worst 2nd half scoring teams in the NFL the past few years. Link and a list I made below. I can sort this into 3rd and 4th quarter rankings as well and compile that. That statistic is found in the link below under More Scoring Stats > Offense By Quarter then select your quarter and see the ranking.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/2nd-half-points-per-game

2017 - Tied for 31st with the Colts (Giants were less than 1/2 point behind them for last)
2016 - 27th by a smidgen
2015 - 10th
2014 - 19th
2013 - 13th
2012 - 16th
2011 - 10th
2010 - 17th
2009 - 27th
2008 - 32nd (Carson Injured year)
2007 - 9th
2006 - 12th
2005 - 9th
2004 - 8th
2003 - 21st

Average ranking: 16th. Exactly in the middle

Just to make sure I'm looking at data that we all deem relevant, let me know some statistics that would help in our detective work. I should probably go look game by game at how big the Bengals lead was at the start of the 2nd half or going into the 4th in any game and then break down scoring from there? Anyone, feel free to let me know what you stats you think are relevant and I'll work on it. Time of possession might be an interesting stat here as well.

Okay, I think this is about the fifth time I have said thi.

Playing poorly is a totally different issue than conservative play calling with a lead.

I am not disputing that the Bengals play poorly in the second half.  What I am disputing is the claim that the Bengals have lost games becauie Marvin lewis is too conservative with a lead.

[fredtoast]

(01-18-2018, 01:41 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I never once said the bengals have to throw more deep balls and run less than every other team.  When I said 7 throws over 10 yards in the second half I was making an EDUCATED GUESS based on what I believe the league average was; which in this case I assumed was around 5.8 throws.

What I was after is THE LEAGUE AVERAGE. You are the one the one that has made some garbage up about the bengals needing to be above every team in the league when it comes to throwing deeps passes and not running the ball for them to be considered aggressive

You can start playing word games all you want with yourself. I asked for two pieces of information that give a very good idea how conservative the bengals are in the second half of games. Anything else you provide I am not looking at

Stop evading the questions I have asked for. You just start talking in circles and coming up with nonsense. I'll simplify it so it is impossible for you to not understand. 

I want two pieces of information. You either say yes I can provide that information and prove my point or I cant. It's that simple

1) The percentage of times the bengals throw it over 10 yards in the second half of games compared to the league average.

2) The percentage of times the bengals run the ball in the second half of games compared to the league avera

So this is from the man who does not know what the term "moving the goalposts" means?

Why should I even bother looking up the percentage of passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield when you are going to label it as "too conservative" even if it is higher than every other team in the league?  Why should I waste my time looking up the percentage of runs in the second half when you already told me that information was "grotesquely insufficient"?

I don't waste my time playing games with people who think they get to make up the rules out of thin air.

And finally how did you make the determination that Marvin Lewis plays too conservative with a lead in the second half?  What information did you use?  Or did you just think that it was true because a lot of people on a message board said it was true?  How is it possible for you to claim that the Bengals have lost games because Marvin played too conservative with a lead in the second half without being able to name one game that the Bengals lost because Marvin played too conservative with a lead in the second half?

[wolverine515151]

(01-18-2018, 09:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: That is the only example anyone has given me so far.  I will gladly look at every game you want to claim we lost because marvin played too conservative with a lead..



The Bengals called pass plays 75% of the time in that second half.  League average is 53.3%

Based off of observations, and nothing I have heard in these forums, I would still bet money that the bengals threw very few long passes in the second half of games.  Most throws were dump offs. 

Dalton threw 236 passes in the second half of games, that's 14.7 a game in the second half. Of those, I would estimate 4 were over 10 yards.  That has to be below league average. 

We can make that assumption based on how much his yards per throw plummeted in the second half from 7.2 to about 5.9 yards per throw. His touchdowns went from 18 in the first half to 7 in the second half. 

From a historical perspective ryan leafs career average was 5.6 yard per throw. So daltons 5.9 in the second half can't be good by any stretch. When youre barely above ryan leaf that has to be a problem.

[fredtoast]

(01-18-2018, 10:50 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: From a historical perspective ryan leafs career average was 5.6 yard per throw. So daltons 5.9 in the second half can't be good by any stretch. When youre barely above ryan leaf  that has to be a problem.

So Ryan Leafs career yards per attempt was the result of his head coach being to conservative with play calling?

Fasinating theory.

[wolverine515151]

(01-19-2018, 10:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: So Ryan Leafs career yards per attempt was the result of his head coach being to conservative with play calling?

Fasinating theory.

I'm showing that because his yards per throw plummeted in the second half which would strongly indicate being more conservative. You can't attribute 100% of the yards per throw going down in the second half solely because of a lack of execution.  It was caused probably by both more conservative play calling and lack of execution

We were too conservative when throwing the ball overall. Now I used over 10 yards. If you look at not just moderately long throws but even longer throws over 20 yards. Dalton attempted 42 throws over 20 yards and completed only 7 of them! 

That means in the second half he probably attempted 15 throws over 20 yards and completed 2. In the second half we were attempting less than 1 throw over 20 yards. That is another strong indicator that yes we were too conservative in the second half.

Don't start talking about moving goal posts if I add additional information to prove a point. I'm still talking about the same thing. You don't even know what moving goal posts even means. If you're going to use an obscure idiom that hardly anyone ever uses or has heard of then at least use it correctly.

[fredtoast]

(01-19-2018, 01:39 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I'm showing that because his yards per throw plummeted in the second half which would strongly indicate being more conservative. You can't attribute 100% of the yards per throw going down in the second half solely because of a lack of execution.  It was caused probably by both more conservative play calling and lack of execution

Look, you are all over the place with your random assumptions and comparisons to Leaf and talking about all games instead of just games where we had a lead in the second half.  So this is my last comment until someone comes up with another alleged example of the Bengals losing a game because Marvin plays too conservative with a lead int he second half other than that Steeler game.

Dalton's completion percentage dropped considerably from the first half (62.8) to the second half (56.2).  This could indicate that either they were attempting more long passes or the execution was worse in the second half.  You can make all the guesses you want but it proves nothing about how conservative the play calling was in the second half of games when we were sitting on a lead.

BTW early in the second half of that game against the Steelers when we still had the lead Dalton completed a 61 yard bomb to Green but it was called back due to a penalty.

[wolverine515151]

(01-19-2018, 03:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Look, you are all over the place with your random assumptions and comparisons to Leaf and talking about all games instead of just games where we had a lead in the second half.  So this is my last comment until someone comes up with another alleged example of the Bengals losing a game because Marvin plays too conservative with a lead int he second half other than that Steeler game.

Dalton's completion percentage dropped considerably from the first half (62.8) to the second half (56.2).  This could indicate that either they were attempting more long passes or the execution was worse in the second half.  You can make all the guesses you want but it proves nothing about how conservative the play calling was in the second half of games when we were sitting on a lead.

BTW early in the second half of that game against the Steelers when we still had the lead Dalton completed a 61 yard bomb to Green but it was called back due to a penalty.

You're the one that is all over the place.  I'm talking about the second half of games and if I just proved that then obviously it will go down even more if we have the lead.  I used leaf as comparison to show how much the yards per completion decreased in the second half.

Work it out. 7.2 / .62 means the average length of throws in the first half was 11.8 yards

It dropped to 5.9 / .55 or 10.7 yards per throw in the second half of games.

Dalton attempted 42 passes over 20 yards the whole season!!!

Thats is 2.6 passes over 20 yards a game all season. Since the yards per throw went down from first half to second half a good approximation would be 1.2 throws over 20 yards were attempted in the second half.

Now using the logic that a team will definitely throw longer when behind than when in front, we can conclude that in games when we had the lead we probably attempted 0.8 throws over 20 yards in the second half.

This proves a much more conservative approach to throwing when we had the lead in the second half and most assuredly way more conservative than we should have been

Also, why do you keep using a single piece of data like dalton completing a bomb to green when we had the lead. Like I have said many times, you need a whole seasons worth of data and compare it to the leagues average!!

[Shake n Blake]

A low completion % can cause a low YPA, so it's better to look at yards per completion.

Also...2.5 attempts per game over 20 yards is pretty normal. I'll look it up when I get home, but I don't think many QBs will have far more than that. Other QBs don't go deep as often (or as successfully) as some on here think.

Dalton did have a down year on deep balls, but he's been very good in the past. Of course, people just credit Green for that success.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-18-2018, 02:04 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Oops.

I apologize for the typo.  That should say "message board myth".  I did not mean to infer that no statements on this board were ever backed up with facts.  Just the claim that the Bengals have lost a game because Marvin played too conservative with a lead in the second half.

In the 2017 regular season, there were only 2 games where a team led by 14+ at halftime and ended up losing. The Bengals were the losers in both of those games. (vs Steelers and Packers)

Not a SINGLE other team did it during the regular season, and yet the Bengals did it twice... but yeah, just a myth, and I am sure it was total coincidence, not Marvin Lewis at all.