Hobson back with his first propaganda piece

[*Synric*]

(01-19-2018, 06:35 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: In the 2017 regular season, there were only 2 games where a team led by 14+ at halftime and ended up losing. The Bengals were the losers in both of those games. (vs Steelers and Packers)

Not a SINGLE other team did it during the regular season, and yet the Bengals did it twice... but yeah, just a myth, and I am sure it was total coincidence, not Marvin Lewis at all.

Is it consecutive play calling or failure to execute? I'm going with failure to run the football.

Edit: Let's not pretend the offense was really any better in the first half of games.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-18-2018, 02:40 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Why are you being so hateful?

One of the most common complaints about Marvin is that he causes the Bengals to lose games when he plays too conservative with a lead in the second half.  I assume you have heard this claim.

All I am saying is that this is just a myth.  In orderto prove that it is just a myth I have repeatedly asked people to give me an example of when this happened.  And they never can.  So if you want to rage at someone for making a claim with nothing to back it up you should be yelling at everyone that makes this claim instead of at me.

But here is the really bad news for you.  You claim that when sitting on a lead Marvin is being too conservative unless he has Dalton throw the ball over 10 yards downfield 7 times in the second half, and there is not a single QB in the league who throws the ball that far that often even if you include the first half and times when they are behind.  Roethlisberger is the only one that comes close.  He averaged 13.4 pass attempts over ten yards downfield per game.  Only a very few average more than ten per game.  Rivers averaged 12.1.  Brady 11.9. Wilson 11.6. Stafford 10.0.  I did not check every QB in the league but the splits are available on ESPN.com if you want to dispute this claim.

Basically the standard you use to accuse Lewis of being too conservative makes every head coach in the league too conservative.




Next.

This doesn't 100% explain why the team seems to become too "conservative" in the second half of games, but I did find these numbers interesting...

Bengals points scored by quarter (ranking compared to other teams):
Q1) 4.2 points (14th)
Q2) 6.9 points (17th)
Q3) 2.8 points (30th)
Q4) 4.2 points (29th)

Bengals points scored by half (ranking compared to other teams):
H1) 11.1 points (17th)
H2) 7.0 points (31st)

For one reason or another, Bengals went from middle-of-the-pack in first half of games to practically bottom-of-the-barrel in the second half of games.
They followed the same trend in 2016, but in 2015 they actually went from middle-of-the-pack in first half of games to 10th in the second half. That had a lot to do with why they won so many games in 2015.

Source - https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/2nd-half-points-per-game

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-19-2018, 06:40 PM)Synric Wrote: Is it consecutive play calling or failure to execute? I'm going with failure to run the football.

Edit: Let's not pretend the offense was really any better in the first half of games.

If you have a lead of 14 at halftime, then lose, it was better in the first half.

The Bengals scored 3 or less points in the second half 7 times.

The two games where they blew a 14 point lead at halftime (I really need to reiterate, these two games were the only time it happened all year, for ANY team) they scored 38 points in the first half, and 6 in the second half.

[*Synric*]

(01-19-2018, 07:08 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If you have a lead of 14 at halftime, then lose, it was better in the first half.

The Bengals scored 3 or less points in the second half 7 times.

The two games where they blew a 14 point lead at halftime (I really need to reiterate, these two games were the only time it happened all year, for ANY team) they scored 38 points in the first half, and 6 in the second half.

Yep their offense was bad this season first and second halfs. They could not control the game. They lived off big plays for a major part of the season.

It isn't because of a "conservative" approach it's because they couldn't run and couldn't move thr chains.

[sandwedge]

(01-19-2018, 07:08 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If you have a lead of 14 at halftime, then lose, it was better in the first half.

The Bengals scored 3 or less points in the second half 7 times.

The two games where they blew a 14 point lead at halftime (I really need to reiterate, these two games were the only time it happened all year, for ANY team) they scored 38 points in the first half, and 6 in the second half.

The bend but do break defense didn't help in a couple of those game too. Example would be Tennessee

[fredtoast]

(01-19-2018, 04:01 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: You can't even work out basic arithmetic.  I'm not going to argue with someone who cant work out basic arithmetic that you learn in elementary school

Hey I just found an elementary school math test.  Can you help me answer these two questions?

1.  QB "A" throws a screen pass that goes for a 50 yard gain.  QB "B" completes a throw 50 yards downfield.  What is the "yards per attempt" for each QB and what is the "length of throw"?  Which QB was more aggressive?

2.  QB "A" completes 50% of his passes with all pass attempts thrown 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.  QB "B" also completes 50% of his passes with all of his completions thrown 5 yards past the line of scrimmage and all of his incompletions thrown 50 yards downfield.  Assuming zero yards gained after catch what is the "yards per attempt" for each QB and what is the "length of throw"?  Which QB was more aggressive?

(01-19-2018, 04:01 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote:  Like I have said many times, and you dont like to listen or have comprehension problems, you need a whole seasons worth of data and compare it to the leagues average!!

Here is another one.

When determining if a coach's play calling is more conservative when he has the lead in the second half of a game the correct procedure is.

a.  Compare his play calling when he has the lead in the second half of a game to

(01-19-2018, 04:01 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Thats is 2.6 passes over 20 yards a game all season. Since the yards per throw went down from first half to second half a good approximation would be 1.2 throws over 20 yards were attempted in the second half.

Now using the logic that a team will definitely throw longer when behind than when in front, we can conclude that in games when we had the lead we probably attempted 0.8 throws over 20 yards in the second half.

This proves a much more conservative approach to throwing when we had the lead in the second half and most assuredly way more conservative than we should have been

Here is another one.

Given:
Yards per attempt is directly related to number of long pass attempts.
QB "A" averages 6.0 yards per attempt.
QB "A" attempts fifty percent fewer long passes when he is ahead.
All else being equal what is QB "A" average yard per attempt when he is ahead and behind?

[fredtoast]

(01-19-2018, 06:35 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: In the 2017 regular season, there were only 2 games where a team led by 14+ at halftime and ended up losing. The Bengals were the losers in both of those games. (vs Steelers and Packers)

Not a SINGLE other team did it during the regular season, and yet the Bengals did it twice... but yeah, just a myth, and I am sure it was total coincidence, not Marvin Lewis at all.

This does notsay anything about the play calling.

How many times do I have to repeat this?

We threw the ball 75% of the time in the second half of the steeler game.  We stunk but it had ZERO to do with the play calling being too conservative.

[wolverine515151]

(01-19-2018, 07:31 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hey I just found an elementary school math test.  Can you help me answer these two questions?

1.  QB "A" throws a screen pass that goes for a 50 yard gain.  QB "B" completes a throw 50 yards downfield.  What is the "yards per attempt" for each QB and what is the "length of throw"?  Which QB was more aggressive?

2.  QB "A" completes 50% of his passes with all pass attempts thrown 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.  QB "B" also completes 50% of his passes with all of his completions thrown 5 yards past the line of scrimmage and all of his incompletions thrown 50 yards downfield.  Assuming zero yards gained after catch what is the "yards per attempt" for each QB and what is the "length of throw"?  Which QB was more aggressive?


Here is another one.

When determining if a coach's play calling is more conservative when he has the lead in the second half of a game the correct procedure is.

a.  Compare his play calling when he has the lead in the second half of a game to


Here is another one.

Given:
Yards per attempt is directly related to number of long pass attempts.
QB "A" averages 6.0 yards per attempt.
QB "A" attempts fifty percent fewer long passes when he is ahead.
All else being equal what is QB "A" average yard per attempt when he is ahead and behind?

1.  Both would count as the same yards per attempt. First throw is 2 yard throw and 48 yac. Second is 50 yard throw and no yac . Second was more aggressive. 

This is an unfair question since chances of a 50 yard passing play off a screen pass is 5 out 100.The chances of a 50 yard completed pass is 100 out of 100. 

The law of averages would dictate that if a pass was completed for 50 yards 95 percent of the time its off a long pass and not a screen pass.  So over a long amount of completions the long bomb would have a much higher average yards per completion  and prove to be the more aggressive. 

Theres is no difference between yards per attempt and yards per throw if there is zero yac. yards per attempt = yards thrown + yac.

2. QB A. Cannot answer either. We dont know what length his incompletions were.

QB B  Say 100 throws. Then 5 x 50 + 50 x 50 / 100.that is 27.5 yards

You saying over 5 yards doesn't allow anyone to determine anything about the throws. Thats why the nfl breaks it into 10 yard chunks. 0 - 10. 11 - 20. 21 - 31 - 40. over 40. This gives you a very good idea of how aggressive the playcalling is.

a.  Compare his play calling when he has the lead in the second half of a game to  ????? 

This question was truncated and you didnt even finish it so obviously it cannot be answered. 

All else being equal what is QB "A" average yard per attempt when he is ahead and behind?

First you have to come up with an average yards per long throw. Lets say its 20 yards. You would also have to assume the same amount of throws were made. Lets says 25 throws when ahead and 25 in the when behind
You would also have to know exactly how many long throws were made when made ahead. Lets say its 3.   So 3 long throws ahead and 4.5 long throws behind

That means 7.5 long throws x 20 is 150 yards gained due to long throws. Shorts throws  were 42.5 and gained 150 yards. That means short throws average 3.5 in this scenario. 

So the average attempt per pass when ahead  22 x 3.5 + 3 x 20 / 25 which is 5.48 

So the average attempt per pass when behind  20.5 x 3.5 + 4.5 x 20 / 25 which is 6.45

[McC]

Basically, whether it's conservative play calling or poor execution in the second half, both are on Marv.

What I see in second halves is too many three and outs, bad field position, soft defense, nothing works on offense because defenses are all over whatever we try to do, defense on the field too much and sucking wind. And all of those things are on the HC.

Maybe a better way to say it is that, for whatever reason, all too frequently, Marv is undressed in second halves.