Foles vs McCarron

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(02-05-2018, 12:03 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I wouldn't toss Wentz in the trash for Foles that's for sure, but Foles was pretty good as long as he wasn't playing for Jeff Fisher or Chip Kelly, right?



The free-market dupes us again!

Not as much a knock on Foles as it is a nod to good coaching....

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(02-05-2018, 12:45 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: That's probably the best comparison.


Doug Pederson and Frank Reich are master play-callers and have set up an excellent system for QB's. I'd love to see Dalton and Foles swap situations. Do I think Dalton would nail it quite as good as Foles did? Maybe, maybe not...but I'd guaran-damn-tee some would be amazed at Dalton's turnaround in the playoffs. I'd bet the house on it.

Meanwhile, I'd also bet the house that Foles chokes just like everyone else under Mervy and whatever group of yes-men are beneath him. It's easy to make confident throws and look good when the scheme is amazing, guys are always open and everything works. On Marv teams, the scheme is predictable, guys are often blanketed, and nothing works in the playoffs.


He had that 119 rating season playing for Chip, so really it was just Jeff Fisher, who also sank Jared Goff. 

The same Jeff Fisher that gets compared to Merv.

Didn't Chip run a lot of RPO?

[sandwedge]

(02-05-2018, 01:10 PM)Wyche Wrote: Didn't Chip run a lot of RPO?

I think he did. He ran it Oregon and I think people bashed him because he was going to do it in the NFL. That and he is a fruitcake.
Didn't Lazor say that we would see us do more of the RPO because Dalton can run it?

[BMK]

Foles had a great season and a great Super Bowl game. He deserves every accolade coming his way. That said, the Eagles moving forward will still be Wentz's team. Wouldn't be surprised to see Foles in Buffalo.

[*Nately120*]

(02-05-2018, 01:07 PM)Wyche Wrote: Not as much a knock on Foles as it is a nod to good coaching....

I hear ya, but Cassel and Flynn weren't SB MVPs when they were making their inflated wins, either.  Foles took it to the next level, as beating Brady in a SB requires.  I realize you were using some extreme examples, though.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(02-05-2018, 01:14 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I think he did. He ran it Oregon and I think people bashed him because he was going to do it in the NFL. That and he is a fruitcake.
Didn't Lazor say that we would see us do more of the RPO because Dalton can run it?

I think he did...if so, we could learn from what they did with Foles.

[Au165]

(02-05-2018, 01:16 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I hear ya, but Cassel and Flynn weren't SB MVPs when they were making their inflated wins, either.  Foles took it to the next level, as beating Brady in a SB requires.  I realize you were using some extreme examples, though.

Foles beat the Patriots defense, a bad one at that, he didn't "beat Brady". Brady outperformed Foles last night but the narrative will be Foles was the better player...he wasn't. In the end Foles is a system QB reliant on a spread attack and a strong running game. We saw this play out before when Kelly was there and when Foles went to a different system it didn't work out. The Cassell comparison is more than fair, Matt Cassell was a system QB who went 11-5 as a back up QB thrust into starting only to be exposed outside of that system and culture. 


Someone will take on Foles, but Foles is so system dependent you better make sure you are willing to go to this spread attack and support him with a strong running attack. Again, I think he fits the Bills for these reasons but we will see. Case Keenum is literally the same guy and someone will over pay him too. Journeymen QBs rarely just become great starters for multiple years after traveling around. You tend to always revert back to the "back of your card".

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(02-05-2018, 01:51 PM)Au165 Wrote: Foles beat the Patriots defense, a bad one at that, he didn't "beat Brady". Brady outperformed Foles last night but the narrative will be Foles was the better player...he wasn't. In the end Foles is a system QB reliant on a spread attack and a strong running game. We saw this play out before when Kelly was there and when Foles went to a different system it didn't work out. The Cassell comparison is more than fair, Matt Cassell was a system QB who went 11-5 as a back up QB thrust into starting only to be exposed outside of that system and culture. 


Someone will take on Foles, but Foles is so system dependent you better make sure you are willing to go to this spread attack and support him with a strong running attack. Again, I think he fits the Bills for these reasons but we will see. Case Keenum is literally the same guy and someone will over pay him too. Journeymen QBs rarely just become great starters for multiple years after traveling around. You tend to always revert back to the "back of your card".

A lot of people underestimate the effect good coaching has on a team in this sport.

I agree with your premise here quite a bit.

[*Synric*]

Foles played a great game but the Eagles offensive line was better. Two running backs averaged over 6 yards per carry and Foles was almost untouched the entire game.

On the flip side even though the Patriots only gave up the one strip sack (huge play) Tom Brady was getting hit alot.

[Shake n Blake]

(02-05-2018, 01:10 PM)Wyche Wrote: Didn't Chip run a lot of RPO?

(02-05-2018, 01:14 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I think he did. He ran it Oregon and I think people bashed him because he was going to do it in the NFL. That and he is a fruitcake.
Didn't Lazor say that we would see us do more of the RPO because Dalton can run it?

Beat me to it, but yeah I remember him doing it a lot in college...some in the pros but not as much. His offense was still very up-tempo.

(02-05-2018, 01:51 PM)Au165 Wrote: Foles beat the Patriots defense, a bad one at that, he didn't "beat Brady". Brady outperformed Foles last night but the narrative will be Foles was the better player...he wasn't. In the end Foles is a system QB reliant on a spread attack and a strong running game. We saw this play out before when Kelly was there and when Foles went to a different system it didn't work out. The Cassell comparison is more than fair, Matt Cassell was a system QB who went 11-5 as a back up QB thrust into starting only to be exposed outside of that system and culture. 


Someone will take on Foles, but Foles is so system dependent you better make sure you are willing to go to this spread attack and support him with a strong running attack. Again, I think he fits the Bills for these reasons but we will see. Case Keenum is literally the same guy and someone will over pay him too. Journeymen QBs rarely just become great starters for multiple years after traveling around. You tend to always revert back to the "back of your card".

1. I think Foles at least matched Brady last night, which kinda "neutralized" him and made it a "who has the better TEAM" kinda game (as opposed to who has the better QB). The Eagles are superior everywhere else (other than TE), and it kinda showed.

2. To the "back of your card" comment, Foles' card includes one of the best seasons of all-time, so maybe this was him reverting to the back of his card? The season under Fisher is looking kinda fluky. He was also fantastic in 2 appearances in 2016 playing for Reid in KC.

3. Aren't almost all QB's system guys to an extent? Look at Brees once he hooked up with Peyton. Big Ben had mixed results (especially early) depending on coordinator. Dalton played like a different guy for Hue. I even have a feeling that Brady would already be retired if not for the system they run. They do an excellent job disguising that wet noodle of an arm he's had for the last several years. They get guys open, and Brady does an excellent job finding them...but if you need him to throw a guy open or needle one in there, it ain't happening very often.

I would say that some QB's are more reliant on system than others though, certainly...and I agree Foles looks like a great fit for Buffalo. He needs a good offensive mind to bring the best out of him, ala Pederson or Reid. I think anyone with a mid-level QB should be looking for offensive minded coaches to bring out the best in their QB. A mid-tier guy can play at an elite level in the right system.

[sandwedge]

(02-05-2018, 03:16 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Beat me to it, but yeah I remember him doing it a lot in college...some in the pros but not as much. His offense was still very up-tempo.




1. I think Foles at least matched Brady last night, which kinda "neutralized" him and made it a "who has the better TEAM" kinda game (as opposed to who has the better QB). The Eagles are superior everywhere else (other than TE), and it kinda showed.

2. To the "back of your card" comment, Foles' card includes one of the best seasons of all-time, so maybe this was him reverting to the back of his card? The season under Fisher is looking kinda fluky. He was also fantastic in 2 appearances in 2016 playing for Reid in KC.

3. Aren't almost all QB's system guys to an extent? Look at Brees once he hooked up with Peyton. Big Ben had mixed results (especially early) depending on coordinator. Dalton played like a different guy for Hue. I even have a feeling that Brady would already be retired if not for the system they run. They do an excellent job disguising that wet noodle of an arm he's had for the last several years. They get guys open, and Brady does an excellent job finding them...but if you need him to throw a guy open or needle one in there, it ain't happening very often.

I would say that some QB's are more reliant on system than others though, certainly...and I agree Foles looks like a great fit for Buffalo. He needs a good offensive mind to bring the best out of him, ala Pederson or Reid. I think anyone with a mid-level QB should be looking for offensive minded coaches to bring out the best in their QB. A mid-tier guy can play at an elite level in the right system.

I notice a couple of Brady's ball "wobbling" and floating like Peyton's last year in the league. Not saying he's ready for retirement but definitely saw some rather un-Tommy like throws.

[Au165]

(02-05-2018, 03:16 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Beat me to it, but yeah I remember him doing it a lot in college...some in the pros but not as much. His offense was still very up-tempo.




1. I think Foles at least matched Brady last night, which kinda "neutralized" him and made it a "who has the better TEAM" kinda game (as opposed to who has the better QB). The Eagles are superior everywhere else (other than TE), and it kinda showed.

2. To the "back of your card" comment, Foles' card includes one of the best seasons of all-time, so maybe this was him reverting to the back of his card? The season under Fisher is looking kinda fluky. He was also fantastic in 2 appearances in 2016 playing for Reid in KC.

3. Aren't almost all QB's system guys to an extent? Look at Brees once he hooked up with Peyton. Big Ben had mixed results (especially early) depending on coordinator. Dalton played like a different guy for Hue. I even have a feeling that Brady would already be retired if not for the system they run. They do an excellent job disguising that wet noodle of an arm he's had for the last several years. They get guys open, and Brady does an excellent job finding them...but if you need him to throw a guy open or needle one in there, it ain't happening very often.

I would say that some QB's are more reliant on system than others though, certainly...and I agree Foles looks like a great fit for Buffalo. He needs a good offensive mind to bring the best out of him, ala Pederson or Reid. I think anyone with a mid-level QB should be looking for offensive minded coaches to bring out the best in their QB. A mid-tier guy can play at an elite level in the right system.

-I mean Brady threw for 500 yards under duress with no ints where as Foles threw for 370 and did have an int. I would say Brady did have the better night, again contrary to the narrative. If I told you one guy threw for 25% more yards and had no INTS compared to 1 INT without any other context you are probably saying the first one was better. 

-Not sure what season was one of the "best all-time", he has never thrown over 3,000 yards in a season. He had a season of 27 TDs and 2 INTs in a spread attack, but outside of that one anomaly he has been a 1:1 int to TD guy most his career.

- There is a difference between being a system QB and gimmick QB, so I apologize in that yea basic passing concepts in systems will highlight guys strengths and it has for many. Foles is a gimmick QB that is relying on a rarely used college gimmick to give him easy reads. The whole RPO thing will get exposed like most gimmicks do in the NFL. After the Raiders game this year when he got exposed they went all in on the RPO setup. Now he made some great throws last night, but if you think that's the guy your getting someone is going to have to explain why his only other good year was using the same gimmick with Kelly. 

Again, if someone wants to build their team around Foles and RPO they can. The issue will be defenses will catch up and if he can't win dropping back in a pocket and scanning defenses without the gimmick he will fail...like he did in St. Louis.

[XenoMorph]

id much rather have foles as the backup than McCarron.. Great question

[*Nately120*]

(02-05-2018, 12:53 PM)sandwedge Wrote: Apparently you have no idea what it's like to be the military. You work about 18 hours a day for what amounts to a little above minimum wage. 

You can't take it personally, it's simple supply and demand.  This is bordering on P&R stuff, though.

[Luvnit2]

I think overall the value of a great back up QB just increased a lot. So AJM value went up thanks to a great post season by Foles. Of course I remember another great post season run by Flacco gave the Ravens a false sense of security and over paid Flacco costing them future success.

[*PhilHos*]

(02-05-2018, 05:36 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I think overall the value of a great back up QB went just increased a lot. So AJM value went up thanks to a great post season by Foles. Of course I remember another great post season run by Flacco gave the Ravens a false sense of security and over paid Flacco costing them future success.

I disagree. I think the demand for either Foles  or Wentz this offseason will see at least 1 first round draft pick being offered, but I think the other QBs expected to be available are most likely still going to see the demand for them be the same or even decrease if Foles or Wentz ARE available.

[jfkbengals]

(02-05-2018, 11:35 AM)Wyche Wrote: Foles also has a good, aggressive young coach.  When Foles came out looking like shit after Wentz went down, he showed some life running the RPO, and his coach noticed.  He then went and tweaked the offense around, and made the RPO his featured look.  Instead of shoving square pegs into round holes, his coach improvised and adapted.  You'll never see that here.

Lest we forget, Foles has struggled mightily in the past.

And last night showed it even more so.  Every throw was essentially predetermined from the get go.  Defenses will spend the offseason assessing the system and will catch up pretty quickly, and then Foles will be back looking like the guy who was in St. Louis and KC.  He played a great game yesterday, but there was no reading of defenses and changing into the right plays.  Instead it was reading an end or backer and throwing accordingly, as well as some very lucky breaks (not overturning the Clement TD, not calling Illegal Formation on the trick play TD).

[Shake n Blake]

(02-05-2018, 03:25 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I notice a couple of Brady's ball "wobbling" and floating like Peyton's last year in the league. Not saying he's ready for retirement but definitely saw some rather un-Tommy like throws.

Exactly who I was thinking of as I watched some of his throws. He just doesn't have much mustard on anything anymore.

(02-05-2018, 03:28 PM)Au165 Wrote: -I mean Brady threw for 500 yards under duress with no ints where as Foles threw for 370 and did have an int. I would say Brady did have the better night, again contrary to the narrative. If I told you one guy threw for 25% more yards and had no INTS compared to 1 INT without any other context you are probably saying the first one was better. 

-Not sure what season was one of the "best all-time", he has never thrown over 3,000 yards in a season. He had a season of 27 TDs and 2 INTs in a spread attack, but outside of that one anomaly he has been a 1:1 int to TD guy most his career.

- There is a difference between being a system QB and gimmick QB, so I apologize in that yea basic passing concepts in systems will highlight guys strengths and it has for many. Foles is a gimmick QB that is relying on a rarely used college gimmick to give him easy reads. The whole RPO thing will get exposed like most gimmicks do in the NFL. After the Raiders game this year when he got exposed they went all in on the RPO setup. Now he made some great throws last night, but if you think that's the guy your getting someone is going to have to explain why his only other good year was using the same gimmick with Kelly. 

Again, if someone wants to build their team around Foles and RPO they can. The issue will be defenses will catch up and if he can't win dropping back in a pocket and scanning defenses without the gimmick he will fail...like he did in St. Louis.

1. I know it's cliche, but you can't just look at the stats. Brady added on 82 yards on pretty meaningless drives at the end of the 1st half and end of the game. He also had a crucial fumble (understatement), dropped his TD pass (Foles caught his) and had a turnover on downs (2 straight incompletions). Not that Brady was bad by any stretch. He was great...but Foles was just as good, if not better, taking all into consideration.


2. Foles' 119.2 rating in 2013 is the 3rd best rating in NFL history. That makes it one of the best passing seasons in history. He actually did throw for 3086 yards (29 TDs) that season (counting the playoff game) in only 11 starts. He was well above a 3000 yard pace in 2012, 2013, 2014 and threw for 1508 yards in 6 starts this season (4000 yard pace). He just hasn't started enough games. In 2012 and 2013, Michael Vick was still around and held in high regard. In 2014, Foles broke his collarbone after 8 games/starts. 

Then there was the season with Jeff Fisher's Rams, which ruined Foles' reputation. After that, he had 2 great games for KC, before making his triumphant return to Philly. 

IMO, the anomaly was the season with Fisher (69.0 rating, 4-7 record). Outside of that, Foles has a 21-11 record (counting playoffs) and has averaged around 4000 yards and 28 TDs per 16 games, with a 95.1 rating. There's plenty of evidence that he can be "the guy" for someone. He's shown a lot of promise for everyone outside of Jeff Fisher, turning in great performances for Kelly, Reid and Pederson.

3. Wentz ran a lot of RPO this year, too...and I don't see anyone doubting him (he wasn't nearly as good as a rookie). Tbh, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. The RPO stuff probably brings out the best in Foles, but he's also probably way better than what he showed in 2015 with Fisher the QB killer. I don't think Foles was running RPO with Andy Reid, when he turned in a promising rookie season, then had 2 very good games in KC for Reid as well. 

It's also fair to note that Foles was injured up til Wentz got hurt, and had virtually no practice time in the offense...which may explain the fade down the stretch and the more heavy reliance on RPO in the playoffs. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

TL/DR: If we throw out this year and his time with Chip - attributing all of Foles' success to RPO - it's only fair to also throw out his year with Jeff Fisher, who sucks with QB's. That leaves out most of Foles' career, leaving only his time with Andy Reid (the guy that drafted him). He showed plenty of promise in that time, but that only entails 9 games in 2 seasons. 

If you look at all this, it's tough to properly gauge Foles either way. I feel good about the guy, but I understand not being fully sold.

[jfkbengals]

(02-05-2018, 11:02 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. I know it's cliche, but you can't just look at the stats. Brady added on 82 yards on pretty meaningless drives at the end of the 1st half and end of the game. He also had a crucial fumble (understatement), dropped his TD pass (Foles caught his) and had a turnover on downs (2 straight incompletions). Not that Brady was bad by any stretch. He was great...but Foles was just as good, if not better, taking all into consideration.


2. Foles' 119.2 rating in 2013 is the 3rd best rating in NFL history. That makes it one of the best passing seasons in history. He actually did throw for 3086 yards (29 TDs) that season (counting the playoff game) in only 11 starts. He was well above a 3000 yard pace in 2012, 2013, 2014 and threw for 1508 yards in 6 starts this season (4000 yard pace). He just hasn't started enough games. In 2012 and 2013, Michael Vick was still around and held in high regard. In 2014, Foles broke his collarbone after 8 games/starts. 

Then there was the season with Jeff Fisher's Rams, which ruined Foles' reputation. After that, he had 2 great games for KC, before making his triumphant return to Philly. 

IMO, the anomaly was the season with Fisher (69.0 rating, 4-7 record). Outside of that, Foles has a 21-11 record (counting playoffs) and has averaged around 4000 yards and 28 TDs per 16 games, with a 95.1 rating. There's plenty of evidence that he can be "the guy" for someone. He's shown a lot of promise for everyone outside of Jeff Fisher, turning in great performances for Kelly, Reid and Pederson.

3. Wentz ran a lot of RPO this year, too...and I don't see anyone doubting him (he wasn't nearly as good as a rookie). Tbh, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. The RPO stuff probably brings out the best in Foles, but he's also probably way better than what he showed in 2015 with Fisher the QB killer. I don't think Foles was running RPO with Andy Reid, when he turned in a promising rookie season, then had 2 very good games in KC for Reid as well. 

It's also fair to note that Foles was injured up til Wentz got hurt, and had virtually no practice time in the offense...which may explain the fade down the stretch and the more heavy reliance on RPO in the playoffs. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

TL/DR: If we throw out this year and his time with Chip - attributing all of Foles' success to RPO - it's only fair to also throw out his year with Jeff Fisher, who sucks with QB's. That leaves out most of Foles' career, leaving only his time with Andy Reid (the guy that drafted him). He showed plenty of promise in that time, but that only entails 8 games in 2 seasons. 

If you look at all this, it's tough to properly gauge Foles either way. I feel good about the guy, but I understand not being fully sold.

It was never going to be a TD.  It would have been a nice gain and moved the chains, but there was no way in hell he was going to make it into the end zone. 

[Shake n Blake]

For anyone interested (probably not many), here's every game Foles played for Andy Reid - who as far as I know - didn't run RPO:

22-32-219-1-0 (85.3 rating)
21-46-204-0-2 (40.5)
16-21-119-0-0 (89.2)
22-34-251-1-0 (96.6)
32-51-381-2-0 (98.6)
16-33-180-1-1 (62.7) *vs Bengals
32-48-345-1-1 (85.9)

This was all as a rookie. Then he had these 2 games for Reid in KC:

16-22-223-2-0 (135.2 rating)
20-33-187-1-0 (86.3)

Totals for Reid: 197-320-2109-9-5 (83.7 rating)

Not bad considering most of it was as a rookie...and he was running a traditional offense.