AD better deep ball than u think

[Shake n Blake]

(04-13-2018, 08:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Exactly.  All they see is highlights of other QBs where they always complete the long pass.  But when you look at every pass thrown by every QB you will see that none of them hit the deep pass consistently.

You made a post recently where you said you always watch our opponent's QB and a small handful of other games. It's the same for me, and you always see them make mistakes or bad throws. All of them. People see the ESPN highlights of the best throws of the day, and I think that's what they judge Dalton against. Dalton has made some highlight worthy deep throws, but most of them don't look like a frozen rope leading straight between the receivers numbers, perfectly in stride.

Expecting that every time is unrealistic, and that's what people expect of Dalton. If it's not a perfectly placed ball on a rope, Dalton gets ripped and all credit goes to the receiver.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(04-13-2018, 08:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Exactly.  All they see is highlights of other QBs where they always complete the long pass.  But when you look at every pass thrown by every QB you will see that none of them hit the deep pass consistently.

Yup, otherwise, every route would be a post or go route.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-13-2018, 08:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Exactly.  All they see is highlights of other QBs where they always complete the long pass.  But when you look at every pass thrown by every QB you will see that none of them hit the deep pass consistently.

Bingo !

[*PhilHos*]

(04-13-2018, 04:51 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Bingo !

[wolverine515151]

(04-11-2018, 04:46 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So now you are claiming that you do not even need to know any numbers on deep throws to determin which QB is best at throwing deep?  All you have to do is look at his total numbers and that tells you how well he throws the deep ball?

I thought the wholoe point of this discussion was to look at deep throw sseperate from all the others to decide who was the best at throwing the deep pass.  But now you are trying to say "Just look at all the throws.  The deep throws will be exactly the same."

That isn't what I said, so don't start twisting my words around. I said if a qb throws a  ball that is overthrown or underthrown, it is much more likely to happen on a deep ball than a short ball. Since when is a 5 yard or 7 yard throw ever overthrown or underthrown. ALMOST NEVER!!

Of the approximately 400 balls Dalton threw about 100 were over 10 yards. So it is safe to assume almost ZERO balls were overthrown or under thrown within 10 yards. That means 17% of 400 throws or around 68 bad balls were thrown of the 100 balls he threw over 10 yards.

It is like when you cherry picked two stats for Kirkpatrick in 2015 and said he was a good corner that year. You forgot to mention his 15 penalties that year which were at least 10 above average, if added to his stop rate and yard per play it would plummet him, from 30 out of 110, to 90 out of 110, on both.

You also forgot to mention Kirkpatrick had zero interceptions in 2015, had a horrible run stop percentage, got picked on more than almost any corner in the league and had a PFF score that ranked him almost last in the league. Now 2015 PFF still was using a fairly accurate formula.

[wolverine515151]

(04-11-2018, 05:06 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Here is the perfect example of what is wrong with your argument.  Any stat that does not agree with your opinion is "garbage".  So basically you don't care about stats.  You just want to state your opinion and ignore any stat that says you are wrong.

How was Fitz able to complete 5 passes over 40 yards past the line of scrimmage if he can't even throw it 40 yards?

You like to make a lot of false statements and accusations don't you toast. I never said I don't care about stats that I don't agree with, only formulas that are very inaccurate!! The qb rating is not a stat, it is a formula that puts a subjective weight on the td!!!!!!! Talk about a hypocrite coming from someone who cherry picks stats worse than I have ever seen. You should change your name to cherry pick toast.

It means I was surprised that Fitzpatrick was able to even throw it 40 yards because he has a very weak arm and watching him play he struggles with any sort of deep ball.The fact that the worst deep thrower in the league, Fitzpatrick, has a high deep ball rating over 40 yards since 2012 indicates a deeply flawed qb rating formula that cannot be trusted on deep balls.

Formulas, not stats, are only garbage only if they obviously show something that is vastly different than what most experts opinion would agree is true. I never said  throw out all formulas I don't agree with, but only would throw out formulas in circumstances when they obviously aren't accurate at all.

It is not like I'm throwing away a players stats, when he's batting 100 out of 300, which is a .333 batting average, because I don't like how he swings the bat. The fact is he put up a good stat that is not weighted and manipulated by some flawed formula.

Like I have said a million times and won't keep saying it because it is a waste of time, the qb rating is very inaccurate for deep balls. It allows a qb to go 3 for 16 with 2 td's like Dalton did and still score high with a 106 rating.

Furthermore, it is you who thinks that input cannot be subjective but formula weights can be subjective. It is not for you to decide what is subjective or not. You either allow it all the time or you never allow it. 

The brickwallblitz ratings, if they are subjective, are far less subjective than the qb rating is. For example, they break down how open a wide receiver is into 7 different levels; from wide open, to very open,to slightly open, to open, to covered, to very covered, to blanketed.

This means ,that if subjectivity is applied, it only is to decide between say slightly open to open. It isn't like the qb rating, which puts monstrous weight on the td, and allows a horrible completion percentage to still have a high rating.

If the qb rating would adjust the weight for distance thrown then it would be a lot more accurate. It should have different td weights for balls between 0-10, 11-21 , 21- 30, 31- 40 and over 40 yards.  If it did this it would not allow Dalton to go 3 for 16 with 2 td's on throws over 30 and score a very high rating.

[wolverine515151]

(04-12-2018, 04:58 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Ahem, wolverine, I just want to make sure you re-read this gem from Shake. Thanks.

Do you mean the production that allowed Dalton to go 3 for 16 with 2 td's and give him a 106 rating because that's garbage production.  You are not differentiating between actual production which is his 3 for 16 or 18.75% and some horribly flawed formula, that puts huge weight on the td and gives him a 106 rating. This means it isn't the throw itself that counts as production but where it was thrown.  

Nobody ever said Green has to be superhuman to catch Daltons throws because that is obviously an exaggeration to make a false point. Green has to be very acrobatic to catch those shanks Daltons known for on deep balls. We just know that, without AJ Green, Dalton would be Blaine Gabbert on deep throws.

[fredtoast]

(04-17-2018, 06:07 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Like I have said a million times and won't keep saying it because it is a waste of time, the qb rating is very inaccurate for deep balls. It allows a qb to go 3 for 16 with 2 td's like Dalton did and still score high with a 106 rating.

The only way I will conceed that point is if yoiu point to a better forumla.

But it has to be based on objective stats only.  None of this "open window" and "adjusting receiver" subjective stuff that has too much grey area.  

Here are some stats that you have already requested.

(04-11-2018, 08:27 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 2. No, most QB's do not have a high rating on 31+ yard throws. You're making this up. Tom Brady has a 67.0 rating on these throws since 2011. I showed you that. Ben has an 87.0 rating. Both are well behind Dalton's 101.7. 

3. I did show the completion percentages. Here they are again (since 2011) and I'll even throw in a few more QB's:

Aaron Rodgers- 39.5%
Andy Dalton- 34.8%
Pig Ben: 27.2%
Flacco: 25.7%
Newton: 24.9%
Brady: 22.5%

Now passer ratings:

Rodgers: 112.7
Dalton: 101.7
Newton: 95.2
Pig Ben: 87.0
Flacco: 86.0
Brady: 67.0

Complete stats:

Dalton: 55-158-2599-20-8 (101.7) 34.8%

Brady: 32-142-1542-9-9 (67.0) 22.5%
Ben: 58-213-2793-25-16 (87.0) 27.2%
Cam: 47-189-2012-21-6 (95.2) 24.9%
Rodgers: 47-119-2242-23-4 (112.7) 39.5%
Flacco: 49-191-2242-17-9 (86.0) 25.7%

So either put up another objective formula that you think accurately rates QBs throwing over 30 yards past the line of scrimmage, or stop whining about the formula used by the NFL to determin the top ranked passer.

[fredtoast]

(04-17-2018, 05:51 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: It is like when you cherry picked two stats for Kirkpatrick in 2015 and said he was a good corner that year. You forgot to mention his 15 penalties that year which were at least 10 above average,.

A lot is made about the nuber of penaties he draws, but when you look at CBs and penalties many times the best CBs in the league are also among the most penalized. For example

...2017 Dre had 7 penalties. There were 23 other CBs who had at least 7 penalties (including William jackson and Josh Shaw). The league leader among CBs was All-Pro Marcus Peters with 9. Fellow All Pros Xavier Rhodes and Patrick Peterson also had 7 penalties just like Dre.

...2016 Dre had 9 penalties. Only 7 CBs had as many as 9 penalties that year, but All Pro Patrick Peterson and A.J. Bouye (who got a $5 yr $68 million contract based on his '17 performance) had more penalties that Dre. Xavier Rhodes, Richard Sherman, and Pro Bowler Vontea Davis all had just one fewer penalty than Dre.

...2015 Dre led all CBs with 13 penalties, but All Pro Aqib Talib was second, Xavier Rhodes was 3rd, Richard Sherman and Marcus Peters tied for 5th, Vontae Davis was 6th and Patrick Peterson 10th.

This seems to be a staistical anomaly that the best CBs would be the league leaders in penalties, but I think it has to do with the fact that they are close enough to receivers to make those tight plays that draw penalties. The guys that can't cover don't end up attempting as many plays on the ball.

(04-17-2018, 05:51 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote:  if added to his stop rate and yard per play  it would plummet him, from 30 out of 110, to 90 out of 110, on both.

According to ProFootballOutsiders his stop rate against the pass was 18th in the league.  He had a horrible stop rate against the run, but that was only 11 total plays in 16 games.  Still just dropped himto 43rd overall.

And his "yards per play" against the pass was 28th.  Terrible yards per play on 11 runs dropped him to 53rd overall.

Don't see how that drops him to #90.  Especially since he was 32nd in success rate and top 25 in completion percentage allowed.

(04-17-2018, 05:51 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote:  got picked on more than almost any corner in the league

Not Dre's fault that PacMan was a top 4 CB in the league that year.

(04-17-2018, 05:51 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote:   had a PFF score that ranked him almost last in the league. Now 2015 PFF still was using a fairly accurate formula.

Wrong.  PFF was usuing a formula that would allow a player to be ranked behind another who both played fewer snaps and messed up more often.

But another big problem was the subjective part of the grading.  Two players could both do their job on a play but one would get subjective "bonus points".

[wolverine515151]

(04-17-2018, 09:36 PM)fredtoast Wrote: A lot is made about the nuber of penaties he draws, but when you look at CBs and penalties many times the best CBs in the league are also among the most penalized. For example

...2017 Dre had 7 penalties. There were 23 other CBs who had at least 7 penalties (including William jackson and Josh Shaw). The league leader among CBs was All-Pro Marcus Peters with 9. Fellow All Pros Xavier Rhodes and Patrick Peterson also had 7 penalties just like Dre.

...2016 Dre had 9 penalties. Only 7 CBs had as many as 9 penalties that year, but All Pro Patrick Peterson and A.J. Bouye (who got a $5 yr $68 million contract based on his '17 performance) had more penalties that Dre. Xavier Rhodes, Richard Sherman, and Pro Bowler Vontea Davis all had just one fewer penalty than Dre.

...2015 Dre led all CBs with 13 penalties, but All Pro Aqib Talib was second, Xavier Rhodes was 3rd, Richard Sherman and Marcus Peters tied for 5th, Vontae Davis was 6th and Patrick Peterson 10th.

This seems to be a staistical anomaly that the best CBs would be the league leaders in penalties, but I think it has to do with the fact that they are close enough to receivers to make those tight plays that draw penalties. The guys that can't cover don't end up attempting as many plays on the ball.


According to ProFootballOutsiders his stop rate against the pass was 18th in the league.  He had a horrible stop rate against the run, but that was only 11 total plays in 16 games.  Still just dropped himto 43rd overall.

And his "yards per play" against the pass was 28th.  Terrible yards per play on 11 runs dropped him to 53rd overall.

Don't see how that drops him to #90.  Especially since he was 32nd in success rate and top 25 in completion percentage allowed.


Not Dre's fault that PacMan was a top 4 CB in the league that year.


Wrong.  PFF was usuing a formula that would allow a player to be ranked behind another who both played fewer snaps and messed up more often.

But another big problem was the subjective part of the grading.  Two players could both do their job on a play but one would get subjective "bonus points".

I don't give a dam if other players who got a lot of penalties made the pro bowl . What does that have to do with his stop rate and yards per play. I'll answer that for you. It has nothing to do with those two stats!! 

If you add 10 more burns to his stop rate ,because he got 10 more penalties than the average corner, then his stop rate would plummet in percentage. The same goes if you add 10 extra penalties worth of yards to his total yards, his yards per play would plummet. 

He still got ZERO INTERCEPTIONS!!!  Had a horrible run stop percentage no matter how many opportunities he had. You could use the same argument for Dalton on the deep balls. He didn't throw it many times over 30 yards, so there not enough data to prove anything.

Quit cherry picking when a small data set is important and when it isn't . He got picked on more than corner and PFF ranked him nearly last in the league and they had an accurate rating system in 2015. 

So what if Pacman was the other corner, they could have thrown it to the slot or tight ends more and they didn't because they obviously felt Kirkpatrick was easy pickings.

You can spin the fact any way you want, but the facts stand for themselves. Who gives a  dam about how many players with a lot of penalties made the pro bowl. They certainly didn't have as many as Kirkpatrick did. 

[wolverine515151]

(04-17-2018, 09:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The only way I will conceed that point is if yoiu point to a better forumla.

But it has to be based on objective stats only.  None of this "open window" and "adjusting receiver" subjective stuff that has too much grey area.  

Here are some stats that you have already requested.



So either put up another objective formula that you think accurately rates QBs throwing over 30 yards past the line of scrimmage, or stop whining about the formula used by the NFL to determin the top ranked passer.

I used brickwallblitz formula. I've been saying it over and over. I'm not whining about anything, I'm making a point about the qb rating formula. You are the one squealing and throwing hissy fits because some fans don't believe the qb rating on deep balls.

[fredtoast]

(04-17-2018, 09:50 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I used brickwallblitz formula. I've been saying it over and over.  I'm not whining about anything, I'm making a point about the qb rating formula. 

The brickwallblitz formula is flawed because of all the subjective judgement involved.  What defines a "tight window" or "receiver adjustment"?  Those are just subjective judgement calls.

And you have not made any point at all about the NFL QB rating formula.  All you have said is that you don't like it because it makes Dalton look good.  Again, nothing but a sunbjective judgement.  To me the formula does not matter that much as long as it is applied equally and objectively to all QBs.

[fredtoast]

(04-17-2018, 09:49 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I don't give a dam if other players who got a lot of penalties made the pro bowl . What does that have to do with his stop rate and yards per play. I'll answer that for you. It has nothing to do with those two stats!! 

I never said it had anything to do with those stats.  Neither did you.  So what is your point?  All I did was prove that a high number of penalties seesm to be common among the best CBs in the league so it should not be used as a stats to prove a CB is bad.

(04-17-2018, 09:49 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Quit cherry picking when a small data set is important and when it isn't . 

I am not cherry picking small data stes.  I included the overall stop rate including the running plays.  Dre still ranks in the top 40-50 in stop rate and yards per play.

(04-17-2018, 09:49 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote:  PFF ranked him nearly last in the league and they had an accurate rating system in 2015. 

The PFF formula from 2015 was garbage.  It was basedon subjective input and the formula itself was so flawed that a player could be ranked BEHIND another player who both played FEWER SNAPS and messed up MORE OFTEN.  It was a complete joke.

[*PhilHos*]

(04-17-2018, 07:06 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Do you mean the production that allowed Dalton to go 3 for 16 with 2 td's and give him a 106 rating because that's garbage production.  You are not differentiating between actual production

There's no such thing as "garbage" production. There's just production. 

BTW, where are you getting the 3 for 16 stat? Just curious.

(04-17-2018, 07:06 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Do you mean the production that allowed Dalton to go 3 for 16 with 2 td's and give him a 106 rating because that's garbage production.  You are not differentiating between actual production which is his 3 for 16 or 18.75% and some horribly flawed formula, that puts huge weight on the td and gives him a 106 rating.

The QB rating stat may be flawed, but it's not "horribly" flawed. And, sure, it puts more weight on TDs, but if you think about it, games are decided by which team has the most POINTS, not which one had the most yards or the better completion percentage.

Also, allow me to point out that the creator of the QB rating forumla has stated that it was designed to judge QBs on full seasons worth of stats and not individual games or even stat splits like passes thrown over 40 yards in the air.

(04-17-2018, 07:06 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: This means it isn't the throw itself that counts as production but where it was thrown.  

No, what it means is that points matter most, but that having a lot of yards and being efficient also play a part in being a "good" QB.

(04-17-2018, 07:06 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Nobody ever said Green has to be superhuman to catch Daltons throws because that is obviously an exaggeration to make a false point.  Green has to be very acrobatic to catch those shanks Daltons known for on deep balls. We just know that, without AJ Green, Dalton would be Blaine Gabbert on deep throws.

This just isn't true. Green has caught more passes in stride than he has made circus catches on deep passes thrown by Dalton. Green is also not the only WR that Dalton has thrown deep to so we already know that even without Green, Dalton would NOT be Blaine Gabbert on deep throws.

[*PhilHos*]

(04-17-2018, 09:50 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I used brickwallblitz formula. I've been saying it over and over.  I'm not whining about anything, I'm making a point about the qb rating formula. 

You hate the QB rating formula because it weighs TDs more than any of the other stats, but you have no problem with brickwallblitz's formula that includes subjective criteria? 

[wolverine515151]

(04-18-2018, 12:01 PM)PhilHos Wrote: You hate the QB rating formula because it weighs TDs more than any of the other stats, but you have no problem with brickwallblitz's formula that includes subjective criteria? 

 I use it because it is much more detailed than a one size fits all qb formula that puts a huge emphasis on the td and where the ball was thrown.  It breaks the windows down into several categories and that takes out a lot of its subjectivity.

Never ever did I say it was a perfect formula. If I have to choose between two flawed formulas I'll choose the one that is less flawed.  

[wolverine515151]

(04-18-2018, 11:58 AM)PhilHos Wrote: There's no such thing as "garbage" production. There's just production. 

BTW, where are you getting the 3 for 16 stat? Just curious.


The QB rating stat may be flawed, but it's not "horribly" flawed. And, sure, it puts more weight on TDs, but if you think about it, games are decided by which team has the most POINTS, not which one had the most yards or the better completion percentage.

Also, allow me to point out that the creator of the QB rating forumla has stated that it was designed to judge QBs on full seasons worth of stats and not individual games or even stat splits like passes thrown over 40 yards in the air.


No, what it means is that points matter most, but that having a lot of yards and being efficient also play a part in being a "good" QB.


This just isn't true. Green has caught more passes in stride than he has made circus catches on deep passes thrown by Dalton. Green is also not the only WR that Dalton has thrown deep to so we already know that even without Green, Dalton would NOT be Blaine Gabbert on deep throws.

The whole point is that the qb rating allows a throw to made at the 50 yard line for a td and get 158 rating. If the deep throw was made at the 51 yard line, for 50 yards, and the ball is at the 1 yard line, then the qb rating is a 80.  The next play the team scores. 

This means a huge emphasis is made on where the ball is thrown. Of course the whole point is to score points but that shouldn't be part of whether it was a good accurate throw or not .

Green might not be the ONLY wide receiver Dalton throws to, but he catches around 70% of all of the deep throws , so he makes up a LARGE PART of any deep throws Daltons completes. He definitely makes top 5 in most acrobatic catches and probably the most acrobatic catches in the whole league.

I think as a whole the qb rating is ok as far as accuracy, it is when it used for specific throwing lengths, like throws over 30 yards, that it becomes inaccurate and should not be used.

The only fair analysis would be to first calculate completion % for all 32 qb starting in 2011 up until now , then adjust for offensive line ranking. 

Say a qb ranked 12 in completion % on throws over 30 yards, and the offensive line ranked 8 , then the qb ranking should be adjusted backwards by say 8 spots because the offensive line is 8 spots better than average.  The adjusted ranking would be 20 for the qb. This at least takes out any bias of the qb having a better offensive line than other qb's. 

I would make the same adjustment for receivers the qb has to throw the ball to, then add up all the rankings and get an average ranking for the qb. 

[wolverine515151]

(04-18-2018, 08:09 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I never said it had anything to do with those stats.  Neither did you.  So what is your point?  All I did was prove that a high number of penalties seesm to be common among the best CBs in the league so it should not be used as a stats to prove a CB is bad.



I am not cherry picking small data stes.  I included the overall stop rate including the running plays.  Dre still ranks in the top 40-50 in stop rate and yards per play.



The PFF formula from 2015 was garbage.  It was basedon subjective input and the formula itself was so flawed that a player could be ranked BEHIND another player who both played FEWER SNAPS and messed up MORE OFTEN.  It was a complete joke.

If it has nothing to with those stats then don't bring it up. It has no part in the argument. You are the one that brings up pointless arguments that have nothing to with anything. Stick to the subject and stop deviating away from it with useless facts

The bottom line is Kirkpatrick got 15 penalties  and the average penalties for the corners was 5. He got 15 - 5 which or 10 above average. So to make the stop rate accurate you add 10 burns and 10 penalties worth of yards. Now calculate his ranking. It plummets to the bottom.

There is zero difference between giving up a completion or grabbing a receiver and hauling him down just before he catches it.  They both count the same yards against the defense, so they must be added to those two stats. 

You are cherry picking when you think small data sets are ok for deep throws and not ok when it comes to run stops. 

PFF was good in 2015.  It was still being used by many experts to rate players and it was very accurate that year. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-24-2018, 07:09 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The whole point is that the qb rating allows a throw to made at the 50 yard line for a td and get 158 rating. If the deep throw was made at the 51 yard line, for 50 yards, and the ball is at the 1 yard line, then the qb rating is a 80.  The next play the team scores. 

The second scenario gives the QB a 118.8 rating, not 80. 

[Shake n Blake]

(04-24-2018, 10:10 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: The second scenario gives the QB a 118.8 rating, not 80. 

I don't see how that's not fair. A 51 yard TD is better than a 50 yard completion, and the difference between 158 and 119 seems like a fair difference.

Either way, this argument (of Wolverine's) loses merit when I was using 7 seasons worth of data and over 150 attempts. The QB rating formula can look a little whacky when you use it for one play, but it all evens out when you're looking at so many attempts.