Who do you think will have a better future in the NFL at QB?

[CornerBlitz]

Simple question. Answer the poll.

Thank you

[Wes Mantooth]

Most likely Andy Dalton. Even putting up a higher pick (Round 2 and up) against him, the odds are going to be stacked in Dalton's favor. The success rate of younger QB's in this league, when measured against starting caliber veterans, is just so low.

Any of us can ramble all off a slew of recent names like: Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Geno Smith, BJ Manuel, Christian Ponder, Jarmarcus Russell. And those are just the higher pick names, and a fraction of them at that.

Middle round picks have an even harder time gaining footing. Even when they play decently, many times teams are already looking ahead of them for that magic draft pick. See Zach Mettenberger and Mike Glennon for examples of this.

I've never quite understood the hopes for McCarron. I guess it's probably best explainable by many of our fans wanting so much to find a replacement for Dalton. Hey, I get it. But stacking the odds in favor of a 5th round pick is akin to being hopeful that you just hit at least $100 on that scratch off ticket.

The guy was a 5th round pick for a reason. I saw someone recently try to explain this slide as due to him being labeled as cocky in the interview process. I got news for you, there are plenty of "cocky" prospects that go in round 1, 2, 3, 4. There are plenty of prospects that come into the league with injury concerns that don't go in late rounds. The reason AJ McCarron went in the 5th round is because that's where his skillset left him. And I would argue that his name, program success and noteriety only helped him. Had he gone to, say, San Diego State, with that same arm, same measureables, same everything, we're probably looking at UDFA instead.

Just spitballing, I think AJ McCarron probably has about a 25% chance of starting more than 12 games in a single season, for any team, ever. I think he has about a 15% chance of having multiple starting seasons in the legue. And think he probably has under a 10% of posting a mid 80's and up QB rating while doing it.

Having a hot wife and success in college, that is thrown out the window once you get to the NFL, is not going to make like his chances any more than I liked Jeff Rowe's. Gino Toretta and Ken Dorsey had a ton of college success and we're drafted late. What to know how they did in the NFL? Unfortunately, the numbers just aren't in his favor. And is much as I dislike Dalton at times, this doesn't change the fact that his chances at seeing long term starts are very, very, very slim.

[Sweetness]

(09-02-2015, 08:55 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Most likely Andy Dalton. Even putting up a higher pick (Round 2 and up) against him, the odds are going to be stacked in Dalton's favor.  The success rate of younger QB's in this league, when measured against starting caliber veterans, is just so low.

Any of us can ramble all off a slew of recent names like: Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Geno Smith, BJ Manuel, Christian Ponder, Jarmarcus Russell.  And those are just the higher pick names, and a fraction of them at that.

Middle round picks have an even harder time gaining footing.  Even when they play decently, many times teams are already looking ahead of them for that magic draft pick.  See Zach Mettenberger and Mike Glennon for examples of this.

I've never quite understood the hopes for McCarron.  I guess it's probably best explainable by many of our fans wanting so much to find a replacement for Dalton.  Hey, I get it.  But stacking the odds in favor of a 5th round pick is akin to being hopeful that you just hit at least $100 on that scratch off ticket.  

The guy was a 5th round pick for a reason.  I saw someone recently try to explain this slide as due to him being labeled as cocky in the interview process.  I got news for you, there are plenty of "cocky" prospects that go in round 1, 2, 3, 4.  There are plenty of prospects that come into the league with injury concerns that don't go in late rounds.  The reason AJ McCarron went in the 5th round is because that's where his skillset left him.  And I would argue that his name, program success and noteriety only helped him.  Had he gone to, say, San Diego State, with that same arm, same measureables, same everything, we're probably looking at UDFA instead.

Just spitballing, I think AJ McCarron probably has about a 25% chance of starting more than 12 games in a single season, for any team, ever.  I think he has about a 15% chance of having multiple starting seasons in the legue.  And think he probably has under a 10% of posting a mid 80's and up QB rating while doing it.  

Having a hot wife and success in college, that is thrown out the window once you get to the NFL, is not going to make like his chances any more than I liked Jeff Rowe's.  Gino Toretta and Ken Dorsey had a ton of college success and we're drafted late.  What to know how they did in the NFL?  Unfortunately, the numbers just aren't in his favor.  And is much as I dislike Dalton at times, this doesn't change the fact that his chances at seeing long term starts are very, very, very slim.

This. I was going to say something similar to this. I don't see McCarron getting a chance to start 4 full seasons and taking his team to the playoffs 4 years. I'll be surprised if he even sniffs 40 wins as a starter.

[djs7685]

Let me preface this by saying that I chose Andy.

Anyway, I do find it hilarious that some people probably think CB is an idiot for this and that it's obviously Andy because "we haven't seen AJM enough", which is acceptable if that's your thought process for all of the younger guys. HOWEVER, I'd bet any amount of money that some of these same people would vote for Paul Dawson if we made a thread called "Who do you think will have a better future in the NFL at LB?" with Dawson and say, Rey Maualuga as the options.

Heh. Thinking about things like that makes me chuckle.

[Marlon23]

Wow this is a loaded question.... I am thinking if AJ McCarron has the chance to play for us or any other team he will have a better future. Honestly I think if Andy Dalton was playing somewhere else in the NFL his chances of receiving a big contract like he did here would not have happen, and also perhaps would have more competition than Josh Johnson etc... I think AJ has so much potential and could possibly be better than Andy Dalton in the future. I also think once Andy is done here there will not be a lot of interest in him from around the league. Other teams, and other fan base have a different perspective than what we do of Andy. Most think he is Mediocre and over paid... which a lot here do as well, but he is our QB... so we are going support the guy!! Also Aaron Rodgers did not play until year 3 and he will be a HOF.... QB... (Not saying AJ is this at all) *Gawd I hate having to explain every detail of every post due to being attacked like a barracuda......) Any who... this is my take, Andy has to prove it this year... or I think there will be a change with him as our QB honestly... I have said week 3-4 will be a telling sign for Andy and his future here.. in my opinion..... Not bashing Andy just stating what I believe...


Who Dey!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Marlon23]

(09-02-2015, 09:10 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Let me preface this by saying that I chose Andy.

Anyway, I do find it hilarious that some people probably think CB is an idiot for this and that it's obviously Andy because "we haven't seen AJM enough", which is acceptable if that's your thought process for all of the younger guys. HOWEVER, I'd bet any amount of money that some of these same people would vote for Paul Dawson if we made a thread called "Who do you think will have a better future in the NFL at LB?" with Dawson and say, Rey Maualuga as the options.

Heh. Thinking about things like that makes me chuckle.

I like these types of post, cause it opens the mind up to a different realm of possibilities and doesn't limit our thinking I will with AJ McCarron...  is this a right answers WHO KNOWS!!!!!!!!!!!!  I like these types of questions, cause it is up in the air!! What is and what could be is cool in my opinion... Nice Thread!! for sure!!  


WHO DEY!!!

[Marlon23]

(09-02-2015, 04:01 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: Simple question. Answer the poll.

Thank you

Nice Thread CornerBlitz!!!!!!!!!!!!!  BOOM!!!

[Wes Mantooth]

(09-02-2015, 09:10 AM)djs7685 Wrote: HOWEVER, I'd bet any amount of money that some of these same people would vote for Paul Dawson if we made a thread called "Who do you think will have a better future in the NFL at LB?" with Dawson and say, Rey Maualuga as the options.

Heh. Thinking about things like that makes me chuckle.

Well, to be fair, Andy Dalton has had more success as a starting QB than Rey Mauluga has had as a LB.  This was a guy, who at one point, graded out to be the very worst starting LB in the NFL.  Not to mention that the success rate for 3rd LB's (where Dawson was taken) is much higher than that of 5th round QB's.  I do get where you're going with this though, but I just wanted to point out that the comparison is not apples to apples.

In my time as a football fan, I've never seen more hype surrounding a 5th round QB from a fanbase.  I don't know if it's because Alabama was so good during his time there, him and his wife are well known, or that some hate Andy Dalton so much.  It just doesn't make sense to me for people to be that much more hopeful for AJ McCarron than they were for Donald Hollas (4), John Walsk (7), Scott Covington (7), Casey Bramlet (7) and Jeff Rowe (5).

Someone explain it to me, why do we spend so much time on this guy?  As much as some homers hyped Dan Lefevour, I'd have to guess he saw about a 1/4 the talk that McCarron does.  Why?

[djs7685]

(09-02-2015, 09:25 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Well, to be fair, Andy Dalton has had more success as a starting QB than Rey Mauluga has had as a LB.  This was a guy, who at one point, graded out to be the very worst starting LB in the NFL.  Not to mention that the success rate for 3rd LB's (where Dawson was taken) is much higher than that of 5th round QB's.  I do get where you're going with this though, but I just wanted to point out that the comparison is not apples to apples.

I'd say the part that makes it less apples to apples would be Dawson likely playing in the WILL spot opposed to Maualuga playing in the middle and at SLB early in his career.

Let's play a game.

This player has been widely considered average at his position if you look at his career as a whole compared to his peers. He has his strengths in part of the game but also has glaring weaknesses that lead to being a very polarizing player. He gets bashed waaay too much by a portion of the fanbase and the media, but he also has some devout followers that excuse his mistakes and pass them onto others. Most view him as average and are fine with that critique. He plays the position that is deemed the "most important" on his side of the field, and is usually where the team leadership should be, even though he has been questioned as a leader by many. He has graded out near the bottom of his position group by sites like PFF in at least 1 year in the past, but he's usually somewhere in the middle overall. He grades highly in certain aspects of the game but his big weakness holds him back from being talked about when it comes to the better players at the position. He was drafted highly enough to expect better performance, and if he doesn't play well this year, we could be seeing him on a different team in the near future.

Who am I talking about? If you guessed Andy Dalton, then you're correct. If you guessed Rey Maualuga, then you're correct.

You say 5th round QB as if AJM didn't have the injury either, even if you're going to ignore what has been said about his interviewing. Sure, many cocky players have been drafted higher, but how many were also injured? I don't know how I feel about AJM yet, but I will say he's looking like a better prospect than most of the usual backup QBs that the boards hype up. There are a lot of 3rd round LBs that don't pan out, how many great 3rd round LBs from TCU are there? I'm not sure, but I'd guess it's somewhere near the number of Alabama QBs from the 5th round that are great players right now. I don't have a problem with people if they want to go in depth on why certain guys may or may not be good. I just think it's funny that some people will say "we haven't seen anything from X yet!!!" while posting about another player being the next best LB or CB or OT in the league in another thread when that guy has the same amount of time on the field.

Maybe it's a little more apples to apples than it may appear to be at first.

[BANJAXED]

AJ McCARRON = THE NEXT TOM BRADY!

[Luvnit2]

(09-02-2015, 04:01 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: Simple question. Answer the poll.

Thank you

I think AD is a lot better than some of our fans think.

I hope AJ and AD have great NFL careers. I see 2 guys with similar skill sets, I think they both are talented, but neither have elite talent like Rodgers, Brady, Luck or others.

I think the part some fans ignore is AD is a smart QB and guys like Griffin who are much more talented physically lack the brain power so in the end, they fail even with more natural ability physically.

[CJD]

Ultimately, I think Dalton will be more successful, primarily because I don't think the coaches will ever back down from him.

Plus, McCarron has not shown nearly enough to justify the question yet. I'll wait to see him play in the regular season before I christen him the next big thing.

[kevin]

(09-02-2015, 04:01 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: Simple question. Answer the poll.

Thank you

I don't think it's a simple question...I don't think it's a loaded question as someone said, but I don't think it is simple either. This really is more of a Who Do You Like. We can guess on the future but Dalton has started 64 regular season games and produced 4 straight winning seasons for first time in franchise history. Ken Anderson or Boomer Esiason or Carson Palmer never did it.  Now McCarron has played in 2 preseason games, period.  I'm glad he looks good, we needed depth in case of injuries. ...The Future ???....It could be Dalton or McCarron down the road, who knows, nobody can really know....This is Dalton's team going into 2015, that is without question....The years to come are anybody's guess. The future QB may not be either of them.....I'm hoping the future of the Bengals is bright, whoever the QB is in years to come. I never saw Carson wanting out after 2010, but I gave my full support to the guy that was forced right into action to replace him. I will do this in the future if team changes from Dalton. 

So I like Dalton, but anybody can be replaced.....and I like McCarron but it has only been 2 preseason games, and he didn't start either of them. McCarron has yet to start any kind of an NFL game. .....I can't vote because I don't see how anybody can predict the future based on 2 preseason games.  I remember Bengals fans getting excited over a WR named Yeast in preseason about 15 years ago. He never played in a regular season game for Bengals.  I'm going to try to remember it is only preseason. 

That said, go ahead and vote and have fun with it, but it is more of a Who Do You Like question. I'm not calling it a loaded question as others, but there just isn't enough data to form an opinion on this yet.  We could use both of them if the goal is to get to The Super Bowl this season.

[Marlon23]

(09-02-2015, 11:13 AM)kevin Wrote: I don't think it's a simple question...I don't think it's a loaded question as someone said, but I don't think it is simple either. This really is more of a Who Do You Like. We can guess on the future but Dalton has started 64 regular season games and produced 4 straight winning seasons for first time in franchise history. Ken Anderson or Boomer Esiason or Carson Palmer never did it.  Now McCarron has played in 2 preseason games, period.  I'm glad he looks good, we needed depth in case of injuries. ...The Future ???....It could be Dalton or McCarron down the road, who knows, nobody can really know....This is Dalton's team going into 2015, that is without question....The years to come are anybody's guess. The future QB may not be either of them.....I'm hoping the future of the Bengals is bright, whoever the QB is in years to come. I never saw Carson wanting out after 2010, but I gave my full support to the guy that was forced right into action to replace him. I will do this in the future if team changes from Dalton. 

So I like Dalton, but anybody can be replaced.....and I like McCarron but it has only been 2 preseason games, and he didn't start either of them. McCarron has yet to start any kind of an NFL game. .....I can't vote because I don't see how anybody can predict the future based on 2 preseason games.  I remember Bengals fans getting excited over a WR named Yeast in preseason about 15 years ago. He never played in a regular season game for Bengals.  I'm going to try to remember it is only preseason. 

That said, go ahead and vote and have fun with it, but it is more of a Who Do You Like question. I'm not calling it a loaded question as others, but there just isn't enough data to form an opinion on this yet. 

Sheww I thought it was a loaded question, but I have a pea brain! LOl..  Nice response enjoyed reading..  

[XenoMorph]

(09-02-2015, 09:10 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Let me preface this by saying that I chose Andy.

Anyway, I do find it hilarious that some people probably think CB is an idiot for this and that it's obviously Andy because "we haven't seen AJM enough", which is acceptable if that's your thought process for all of the younger guys. HOWEVER, I'd bet any amount of money that some of these same people would vote for Paul Dawson if we made a thread called "Who do you think will have a better future in the NFL at LB?" with Dawson and say, Rey Maualuga as the options.

Heh. Thinking about things like that makes me chuckle.

I voted for andy... Just because if your not installed as a starter right away usually starts are hard to come by unless there is an injury or you're an heir apparent like Rodgers was in green bay for 3 years.

Im willing to guess lots of talent has come and gone thru the NFL that never even got a real chance to play quality time on the field.

Mccarron could have a good career if he ever gets a chance to take the reigns of a quality team. But those chances will be few and far between as they are for most QB backups in the league.

[BURROWorBUST]

If I we based our answer on the weight of AD's first preseason game as a rookie and AJ's first preseason game, I'd say AJ.

Based on Andy's status as a 4/5 year starter compared to AJ's 1 preseason game, I'd say it's hard to know. I guess you'd have to say Andy because he's the incumbent.

BUT . . . if we don't make the playoffs or don't win in the playoffs, I think/hope next year will be competitive and you have to give AJ a legitimate shot at wrestling the job from Andy. At that point, whose future is brighter would be a different question.

[BengalChris]

I voted Dalton for the simple reason that he is the starter and AJ isn't.

[Okeana]

If you ask who has the better upside. I think at this point we have to say AJ, but he's an unknown factor and dalton isn't. I however won't answer the poll because its irrelevant

[NKYRob]

When you're drafted into the league as a backup, it's hard to break out of that. Especially when you sitting behind a known commodity. I chose Andy based on this.

[CornerBlitz]

(09-02-2015, 08:55 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I've never quite understood the hopes for McCarron.  I guess it's probably best explainable by many of our fans wanting so much to find a replacement for Dalton.  Hey, I get it.  But stacking the odds in favor of a 5th round pick is akin to being hopeful that you just hit at least $100 on that scratch off ticket.  

This paragraph sums it up. McCaron is that lotto ticket everyone is hoping turns out to be a winner, when in reality we all know chances are it won't happen.