Head coaching grades for all 32 current HC's (updated)

[*PhilHos*]

(05-21-2018, 07:52 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Explanation of grading:

A few years ago (on the old boards) - in response to a certain poster who claimed that Marvin Lewis was one of the most successful coaches - I created a grading system to compare Marv's entire tenure to how the rest of the teams fared over the same stretch. I graded each season and added all the points together. The grading system looked like this:

+8 points for 12-16 regular season wins
+5 points for 10-11 wins
+3 for a 9-7 season
0 points for 8-8
-3 for a 7-9 season
-5 for 5-6 wins
-8 for 4 or fewer wins

I added the following bonuses:

+10 for a division title
+10 for each playoff win
+50 for a Super Bowl title

For example, Marv accumulated +18 points in 2015 without winning a playoff game, while he got a -3 grade for 2017. A 9-7 team that fails to win it's division, but wins 1 playoff game would accumulate a +13 score. Championship teams usually rack up a +85 score or higher. Not a perfect system, but IMO it's fair. Obviously if you make a deep playoff run or win a title, you should be heavily rewarded. You can also rack up points by winning in regular season and capturing division titles.

The last 2 years, I finally took Berserker's advice, and make it more of a coach to coach comparison. In order to do this, I graded every single season by every single current Head Coach. Fortunately, Pro Football Reference has all the information I needed on each coach's page, as it made accumulating the grades go much faster. In order to make the grades fair for comparison, I took each coach's total career points and divided them by total years coached. So the grades are a per season average for their career.

So here's the grades:

UPDATED RANKINGS WITH NEW COACHES:

^ means the coach moved up in ranking
v means the coach moved down
= means they stayed the same, obviously


^ 1. Doug Pederson: +42.5 (2 seasons)
v  2. Bill Belichick: +31.9 (23 seasons with Browns, Pats)
=  3. Mike Tomlin: +21.3 (10 seasons)
v  4. Mike McCarthy: +20.1 (12 seasons)
v  5. John Harbaugh: +19.2 (10 seasons)
v  6. Pete Carroll: +18.4 (12 seasons with Jets, Pats, Seahawks)
v  7. Dan Quinn: +16.7 (3 seasons)
= 8. Sean Payton: +15.9 (10 seasons)
^ 9. Sean McVay +15 (1 season)
 10. Jon Gruden +14.2 (11 seasons with Raiders, Bucs)
v 11. Andy Reid: +13.2 (19 seasons with Eagles, Chiefs)
^ 12. Doug Marrone +11.0 (3 seasons)
^ 13. Mike Zimmer: +10.0 (4 seasons)
v  14. Ron Rivera: +9.2 (6 seasons)
v  15. Bill O'Brien: +7.8 (4 seasons)
v  16. Jim Caldwell: +7.6 (7 seasons with Colts, Lions)
v  17. Jason Garrett: +5.9 (7 seasons)
^ t18. Marvin Lewis: +3.0 (15 seasons)
^ t18. Anthony Lynn +3 (1 season)
^ t18. Sean McDermott +3 (1 season)
=  21. Jay Gruden: +0.5 (4 seasons)
v  t22. Adam Gase: 0 (2 seasons)
  t22. Frank Reich - Colts
  t22. Matt Nagy - Bears
  t22. Steve Wilks - Cardinals
  t22. Pat Shurmur - Giants
  t22. Mike Vrabel - Titans
v  28. Dirk Koetter: -1.0 (2 seasons)
v  29. Todd Bowles: -1.7 (3 seasons)
v t30. Kyle Shannahan -5 (1 season)
v t30. Vance Joseph -5 (1 season)
= 32. Hue Jackson -5.3 (3 seasons with Raiders, Browns)
_________________

Replaced coaches who didn't get another HC gig for whatever reason:

Chuck Pagano: +10.4 (5 seasons)
John Fox: +9.2 (16 seasons with Panthers, Broncos, Bears)
Bruce Arians: +8.3 (6 seasons with Colts, Cardinals)
Ben McAdoo: +5.0 (1 season) *Fired after 2-10 start that I didn't count in grade
Mike Mularky: +1.6 (5 seasons with Bills, Jags, Titans)
Jack Del Rio: +1.1 (14 seasons with Jags, Raiders)


(Old) Notes:

- This is not a ranking of who is the better coach, it's only meant to judge past success.
- I gave Arians credit for the 2012 Colts, when he coached 12 games with Pagano out.
- keep in mind that Marv's first 8 seasons featured as many 4 win seasons as playoff berths. That hurt his grade, but it happened.

I find it interesting - but not surprising - that all of the coaches with 10 or more years experience are at the top of the list ... except 1.

[*bfine32*]

Man this forum sure does like to argue about the merits of an 18th ranking.

As to the OP: 18th seems about right.

[BenZoo2]

(05-22-2018, 12:59 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I find it interesting - but not surprising - that all of the coaches with 10 or more years experience are at the top of the list ... except 1.

Things that make you go hmmm


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[fredtoast]

(05-22-2018, 12:53 PM)depthchart Wrote: Just admit that you cannot say that Mike Brown was the "worst owner" in each and every one of Marvin's 15 seasons here.

Mike outperformed many NFL Owners during at least some of those 15 seasons.

If you want Fairness for Marvin then give Fairness to Mike.

Mike was not the 32nd (worst performing owner) each and every one of those 15 Marvin years.

I don't give owners any credit for draft picks.  In fact I give our coaches more credit than other teams because they are more involved in the scouting than coaches on other teams.

Owners (on teams with no GM) get credit for trades and signing free agents.  Mike Brown did nothing but sign and trade for bargain bin players who were not working out under other NFL coaches.

I would give credit to Mike for getting two high picks fro Palmer, except I think Mike is the reason Palmer left in the first place.

[WeezyBengal]

(05-22-2018, 10:45 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes, I agree.

But don't you agree that it is better to make the playoffs and lose than to not make the playoffs

I agree. 

Making the playoffs shouldn't be the standard, though. The fact that it is tells you everything you need to know about this organization and fan base.

[WeezyBengal]

(05-22-2018, 12:59 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I find it interesting - but not surprising - that all of the coaches with 10 or more years experience are at the top of the list ... except 1.

Thats because the rankings are skewed. More coaching time under the belt = more playoff wins, more division titles, more super bowls. Thats what makes Marvin's ranking even worse than it really is. 

I get what the OP is trying to do, but it there is a flaw in the system. 

[fredtoast]

(05-22-2018, 01:53 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I agree. 

Making the playoffs shouldn't be the standard, though. The fact that it is tells you everything you need to know about this organization and fan base.

Name one person here who claims making the playoffs is the standard.

This kind of crap is silly.  

[depthchart]

(05-22-2018, 01:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't give owners any credit for draft picks.  In fact I give our coaches more credit than other teams because they are more involved in the scouting than coaches on other teams.

Owners (on teams with no GM) get credit for trades and signing free agents.  Mike Brown did nothing but sign and trade for bargain bin players who were not working out under other NFL coaches.

I would give credit to Mike for getting two high picks fro Palmer, except I think Mike is the reason Palmer left in the first place.

Mike Brown is also the GM.

You want to dance around the issue which was your proclamation that Mike was in effect the "worst owner" in the NFL during each and every one of Marvin's 15 seasons here.

If as you say the credit for Draft picks goes to the Coaches then Mike would also get credit for being willing to listen to the Coaches, especially since he is the GM.

Trying to limit Mike's role to just trades and Free Agency as a way to define him as the "worst owner" during all 15 seasons avoids other criteria that must be used when ranking owners on a season by season basis. Jowczarski has confirmed in Posts that while Mike does not spend a lot on Free Agents, he does spend to retain players and during many of Marvin's 15 seasons, Mike as Owner has spent more on player salaries than many other NFL owners did during many Marvin seasons.

Do you still claim that in each of the last 15 Marvin seasons, Mike should be ranked 32nd & "worst owner" in each and every one of those 15 Marvin seasons given the entire sphere of influence NFL Owners have ? 

He couldn't outperform any other owner even once in 15 Marvin seasons ?

If you do, then you are carrying way too much water in your vigorous defense of Marvin's reputation.

Be Fair.

Mike has not been a constant weight around Marvin's neck 15 straight times. Instead, there have been seasons where Marvin has had more to work with than many other NFL Coaches had. Seasons where Mike rose up the Owner ranking Board for that specific season way above a 32nd ranking. Even if he may have mainly did it by listening to advice & being willing to spend to retain players versus using Free Agency.

The Marvin as victim game needs to stop or at least be limited to specific seasons when his owner may have actually hamstrung him.

Not all 15 seasons. No way...

[fredtoast]

(05-22-2018, 01:59 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Thats because the rankings are skewed. More coaching time under the belt = more playoff wins, more division titles, more super bowls. Thats what makes Marvin's ranking even worse than it really is. 

Uh, no.

(05-21-2018, 07:52 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote:  In order to make the grades fair for comparison, I took each coach's total career points and divided them by total years coached. So the grades are a per season average for their career.

The guys with more years are at the top because all the bad coaches don't last that long.

[BenZoo2]

(05-22-2018, 02:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Uh, no.



The guys with more years are at the top because all the bad coaches don't last that long.

And if mike were a more competent owner marv wouldn’t have been here this long because every other team would have canned him by now.

They deserve each other


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[fredtoast]

(05-22-2018, 02:50 PM)depthchart Wrote: Mike Brown is also the GM.

You want to dance around the issue which was your proclamation that Mike was in effect the "worst owner" in the NFL during each and every one of Marvin's 15 seasons here.

If as you say the credit for Draft picks goes to the Coaches then Mike would also get credit for being willing to listen to the Coaches, especially since he is the GM.

Trying to limit Mike's role to just trades and Free Agency as a way to define him as the "worst owner" during all 15 seasons avoids other criteria that must be used when ranking owners on a season by season basis. Jowczarski has confirmed in Posts that while Mike does not spend a lot on Free Agents, he does spend to retain players and during many of Marvin's 15 seasons, Mike as Owner has spent more on player salaries than many other NFL owners did during many Marvin seasons.

Do you still claim that in each of the last 15 Marvin seasons, Mike should be ranked 32nd & "worst owner" in each and every one of those 15 Marvin seasons given the entire sphere of influence NFL Owners have ? 

He couldn't outperform any other owner even once in 15 Marvin seasons ?

If you do, then you are carrying way too much water in your vigorous defense of Marvin's reputation.

Be Fair.

Mike has not been a constant weight around Marvin's neck 15 straight times. Instead, there have been seasons where Marvin has had more to work with than many other NFL Coaches had. Seasons where Mike rose up the Owner ranking Board for that specific season way above a 32nd ranking. Even if he may have mainly did it by listening to advice & being willing to spend to retain players versus using Free Agency.

The Marvin as victim game needs to stop or at least be limited to specific seasons when his owner may have actually hamstrung him.

Not all 15 seasons. No way...

Hilarious how EVERYONE agrees that Mike's free agency policy is so bad for the team until someone suggest it might have effected Marvin's ability to win.

The ONLY way Marvin could get decent players was to develop draft picks or turn around players that had not produced under other coaches.  If you want to claim Mike was a good GM just for re-signing his own players then tell me which GMs were worse.

Allso there is this....

Mike Brown with Marvin Lewis as head coach..... .527 winning %, playoffs 7 of 15 years,  5 losing seasons in 15 years.
Mike Brown with all other head coaches............. .286 winning %, playoffs 0 of 12 years, 11 losing season in 12 years.

[fredtoast]

(05-22-2018, 03:07 PM)BenZoo2 Wrote: They deserve each other

All the evidence points to Mike Brown being the worst owner in the league.

All the evidence also points to Marvin being a better than average coach.

I don't know why you think Marvin deserves Mike as an owner.  Don't you agree that Marvin would have been more successful working for a different owner?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-22-2018, 11:46 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I fully agree Mike Brown is at the very top of the worst owners in sports. And indeed Marvin has had a giant yoke around his neck because of Mike's meddling. 

But you yourself argue that nearly every Bengal player is better than he gets credit for. In fact you argue many are/have been very good to great ! The fact is Marvin has fielded a few pretty good teams and should easily have at least a couple playoff wins.

But this team folds time and again when the heat is on, under pressure, under the lights, playoffs. Mike isn't calling the plays, changing or not the personnel on the field, wasting timeouts, going conservative before halftime, and on and on.

That stuff is on MARVIN, he doesn't get a pass or special handicap.

Sadly, you know what you are talking about as usual.

There should be no excuses for Marv's teams under the big lights. It be bad.

[TheUberHuber]

(05-22-2018, 12:53 PM)depthchart Wrote: Just admit that you cannot say that Mike Brown was the "worst owner" in each and every one of Marvin's 15 seasons here.

Mike outperformed many NFL Owners during at least some of those 15 seasons.

If you want Fairness for Marvin then give Fairness to Mike.

Mike was not the 32nd (worst performing owner) each and every one of those 15 Marvin years.

Yeah it's an absurd argument imo. There are plenty of worse owners out there.

Making the Mike brown excuse for marvin is well, just that, an excuse. And frankly, probably the only thread left to hold onto for the marvin homers.. 

Mike brown had absolutely nothing to do with Marvin's team giving the game away to the Steelers in the playoffs. We had plenty of talent to win that game.

[depthchart]

(05-22-2018, 03:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hilarious how EVERYONE agrees that Mike's free agency policy is so bad for the team until someone suggest it might have effected Marvin's ability to win.

The ONLY way Marvin could get decent players was to develop draft picks or turn around players that had not produced under other coaches.  If you want to claim Mike was a good GM just for re-signing his own players then tell me which GMs were worse.

Allso there is this....

Mike Brown with Marvin Lewis as head coach..... .527 winning %, playoffs 7 of 15 years,  5 losing seasons in 15 years.
Mike Brown with all other head coaches............. .286 winning %, playoffs 0 of 12 years, 11 losing season in 12 years.

You are the one that needs to prove that during each and every season that Marvin has coached here (15 total), Mike Brown performed the worst (32nd overall) when compared to all other owners during each and every one of those Marvin seasons.

Just admit that there have been seasons where Marvin has had more to work with than at least some other NFL owners were able to provide their Coaches during that particular season.

Marvin does not start out in 32nd place year after year when it comes to Ownership provided resources.

Get real...

[WeezyBengal]

(05-22-2018, 02:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Name one person here who claims making the playoffs is the standard.

This kind of crap is silly.  

Then you shouldn't be happy with Marvin Lewis as your head coach. 

I know this is hard to believe...but there COULD be a coach out there that...I know this is SHOCKING...BETTER than Marvin Lewis. 

I've seen all I need to see from Marvin Lewis. Hes been here 15 years and has never advanced past the first round of the playoffs. Really think about that...15 YEARS. Incredible. 

You sit here and roast Mike Brown but you're hypocritical. You both share a complacency for mediocrity.

[TheUberHuber]

(05-21-2018, 07:52 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Explanation of grading:

A few years ago (on the old boards) - in response to a certain poster who claimed that Marvin Lewis was one of the most successful coaches - I created a grading system to compare Marv's entire tenure to how the rest of the teams fared over the same stretch. I graded each season and added all the points together. The grading system looked like this:

+8 points for 12-16 regular season wins
+5 points for 10-11 wins
+3 for a 9-7 season
0 points for 8-8
-3 for a 7-9 season
-5 for 5-6 wins
-8 for 4 or fewer wins

I added the following bonuses:

+10 for a division title
+10 for each playoff win
+50 for a Super Bowl title

For example, Marv accumulated +18 points in 2015 without winning a playoff game, while he got a -3 grade for 2017. A 9-7 team that fails to win it's division, but wins 1 playoff game would accumulate a +13 score. Championship teams usually rack up a +85 score or higher. Not a perfect system, but IMO it's fair. Obviously if you make a deep playoff run or win a title, you should be heavily rewarded. You can also rack up points by winning in regular season and capturing division titles.

The last 2 years, I finally took Berserker's advice, and make it more of a coach to coach comparison. In order to do this, I graded every single season by every single current Head Coach. Fortunately, Pro Football Reference has all the information I needed on each coach's page, as it made accumulating the grades go much faster. In order to make the grades fair for comparison, I took each coach's total career points and divided them by total years coached. So the grades are a per season average for their career.

So here's the grades:

UPDATED RANKINGS WITH NEW COACHES:

^ means the coach moved up in ranking
v means the coach moved down
= means they stayed the same, obviously


^ 1. Doug Pederson: +42.5 (2 seasons)
v  2. Bill Belichick: +31.9 (23 seasons with Browns, Pats)
=  3. Mike Tomlin: +21.3 (10 seasons)
v  4. Mike McCarthy: +20.1 (12 seasons)
v  5. John Harbaugh: +19.2 (10 seasons)
v  6. Pete Carroll: +18.4 (12 seasons with Jets, Pats, Seahawks)
v  7. Dan Quinn: +16.7 (3 seasons)
= 8. Sean Payton: +15.9 (10 seasons)
^ 9. Sean McVay +15 (1 season)
 10. Jon Gruden +14.2 (11 seasons with Raiders, Bucs)
v 11. Andy Reid: +13.2 (19 seasons with Eagles, Chiefs)
^ 12. Doug Marrone +11.0 (3 seasons)
^ 13. Mike Zimmer: +10.0 (4 seasons)
v  14. Ron Rivera: +9.2 (6 seasons)
v  15. Bill O'Brien: +7.8 (4 seasons)
v  16. Jim Caldwell: +7.6 (7 seasons with Colts, Lions)
v  17. Jason Garrett: +5.9 (7 seasons)
^ t18. Marvin Lewis: +3.0 (15 seasons)
^ t18. Anthony Lynn +3 (1 season)
^ t18. Sean McDermott +3 (1 season)
=  21. Jay Gruden: +0.5 (4 seasons)
v  t22. Adam Gase: 0 (2 seasons)
  t22. Frank Reich - Colts
  t22. Matt Nagy - Bears
  t22. Steve Wilks - Cardinals
  t22. Pat Shurmur - Giants
  t22. Mike Vrabel - Titans
v  28. Dirk Koetter: -1.0 (2 seasons)
v  29. Todd Bowles: -1.7 (3 seasons)
v t30. Kyle Shannahan -5 (1 season)
v t30. Vance Joseph -5 (1 season)
= 32. Hue Jackson -5.3 (3 seasons with Raiders, Browns)
_________________

Replaced coaches who didn't get another HC gig for whatever reason:

Chuck Pagano: +10.4 (5 seasons)
John Fox: +9.2 (16 seasons with Panthers, Broncos, Bears)
Bruce Arians: +8.3 (6 seasons with Colts, Cardinals)
Ben McAdoo: +5.0 (1 season) *Fired after 2-10 start that I didn't count in grade
Mike Mularky: +1.6 (5 seasons with Bills, Jags, Titans)
Jack Del Rio: +1.1 (14 seasons with Jags, Raiders)


(Old) Notes:

- This is not a ranking of who is the better coach, it's only meant to judge past success.
- I gave Arians credit for the 2012 Colts, when he coached 12 games with Pagano out.
- keep in mind that Marv's first 8 seasons featured as many 4 win seasons as playoff berths. That hurt his grade, but it happened.

Cool system and thanks for doing it. An idea I have is giving 10 point boost only once in the wild card/division round. That way if someone has a bye it makes a little more fair and realistic. So someone could win 2 games but only receive 10 points. Then maybe  20 points for winning the conference and adjust superbowl win to 40. Idk just an idea.

[fredtoast]

(05-22-2018, 03:53 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Then you shouldn't be happy with Marvin Lewis as your head coach. 

(05-22-2018, 10:52 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I assumed Marvin was going to be fired after this last season, and I was fine with that.  But that does not mean that I think Marvin sucks as a coach.  I actually think he is a pretty good coach, but he has been handicapped by the worst owner in the NFL.

I agree Marvin should have been fired.  I'd rather have a coach who has a proven post season winning record, but there is not one available.

After two straight losing seasons I probably would not have complained about bringing in a new guy who has never been a head coach.  But I don't know for sure.  It depends on who they would have hired.

When you say "Anyone but Marvin Lewis" you are opening yourself up for some very bad head coaches.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-22-2018, 03:38 PM)TheUberHuber Wrote: Yeah it's an absurd argument imo. There are plenty of worse owners out there.

Making the Mike brown excuse for marvin is well, just that, an excuse. And frankly, probably the only thread left to hold onto for the marvin homers.. 

Mike brown had absolutely nothing to do with Marvin's team giving the game away to the Steelers in the playoffs. We had plenty of talent to win that game.

(05-22-2018, 03:53 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Then you shouldn't be happy with Marvin Lewis as your head coach. 

I know this is hard to believe...but there COULD be a coach out there that...I know this is SHOCKING...BETTER than Marvin Lewis. 

I've seen all I need to see from Marvin Lewis. Hes been here 15 years and has never advanced past the first round of the playoffs. Really think about that...15 YEARS. Incredible. 

You sit here and roast Mike Brown but you're hypocritical. You both share a complacency for mediocrity.

No doubt, both are to blame, cannot just blame Mikey Boy for our terrible performances in the Playoffs
and under the big lights. Once the team is on the field it is up to the coaches and the players, not the
owner. We can hate on Mike Brown all we want but in the end it is not all his fault.

Marvin Lewis deserves lots of the blame.

[BenZoo2]

(05-22-2018, 03:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: All the evidence points to Mike Brown being the worst owner in the league.

All the evidence also points to Marvin being a better than average coach.

I don't know why you think Marvin deserves Mike as an owner.  Don't you agree that Marvin would have been more successful working for a different owner?

Mike could give Marvin high school rejects. It wouldn’t change what is viewed as poorer game management, lack of discipline in his players, especially big games, etc. Marvin has the coach up what he’s been given too.


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