4th and 1... Where is the Media backlash?

[fredtoast]

(10-15-2018, 10:16 PM)YsCascadia Wrote: No one blamed the Falcons for going for it. 

I guarantee the falcon fans on their message board did.

And if Marvin had gone for it and failed there would be a long line of people here calling Marvin stupid for not punting.  This game was mnot a shoot out.  It was 14-14 in the second half.

[CJD]

(10-15-2018, 04:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: When it is a 14-14 tie and we just got stuffed on 3rd and 1.

Better to make the Steelers drive 90 yards than 60.

And anyone who thinks we should have tried NOT TO SCORE a td at the end of the game when we had scored ZERO POINTS in the entire second half is crazy.

Why is that crazy? The Steelers seemingly allowed Mixon to score. It was their best chance of winning that the Bengals score that easily. Why play into their game?

 The Bengals should have done their absolute best to down it at the 1 and then taken more time off the clock. If you can't pound the ball into the endzone in 4 tries from the 1 yard line, you don't deserve to win anyway.

And that's not even accounting for just managing the clock better on that drive to begin with. Like...why snap the ball with 15 seconds on the play clock? If they ran into time trouble, they had 2 time outs themselves.

Not burning more clock or at least forcing the steelers to use their timeouts gave Roethlisberger the entire field on his final drive, which made stopping him an absolute pipe dream.

I get trusting your defense, but when a team is in 4 down territory, it's really hard to stop them from gaining 40 yards. And with 1:18 and 3 TOs, time was not a factor at all.

[wolfkaosaun]

Since 2003, Marvin Lewis has faced this situation 79 times. Marvin Lewis has gone for it just 13 times and kicked a FG once.
They've gained a first down on 9 of 13 attempts.
The league average is creeping closer to 50-50 since 2015, but CIN has punted last 9 times.

The situation being between 40-40 in a game that's within 10 points.

The last time Marvin Lewis went for it was against the Steelers in 2014, on Pittsburgh's 40 and in the third quarter also. Andy Dalton up the middle for 2 yards.

[wolfkaosaun]

(10-16-2018, 08:51 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I guarantee the falcon fans on their message board did.

And if Marvin had gone for it and failed there would be a long line of people here calling Marvin stupid for not punting.  This game was mnot a shoot out.  It was 14-14 in the second half.

The Bengals punted on the Steelers 45, 43, and 40.
It's obvious that Marvin's "field position" battles against the Steelers never work. So. Again. You need to change the formula when you're 8-24. Now 8-25.
Oh, and haven't scored more than 21 points against the Steelers since 2009. Where they scored 23.
The Bengals haven't scored 24+ points against the Steelers since 2006.


The Steelers have scored 24+ against the Bengals 12 out of their last 18 games.

So. Yeah. Maybe TRYING to score more points than a team that routinely scores on you would have been a good idea.

Marvin deserves all the criticism in the world for failing time and time again against the Steelers.

[wolfkaosaun]

(10-15-2018, 08:57 PM)jfkbengals Wrote: I found it funny that posters in the Game Day thread were pissed that Marvin did not go for it, and kept saying Tomlin would do it in that position.

Then Tomlin found himself in that position.

He punted, too...

When did the Steelers punt on a 4th and 1 inside the Bengals territory? Cause that never happened.

[fredtoast]

(10-16-2018, 09:34 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The Bengals should have done their absolute best to down it at the 1 and then taken more time off the clock. If you can't pound the ball into the endzone in 4 tries from the 1 yard line, you don't deserve to win anyway.

You will never see a team trailing by 6 points do this ever.  That is the dumbest idea I have ever heard.

[jfkbengals]

(10-16-2018, 03:46 PM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: When did the Steelers punt on a 4th and 1 inside the Bengals territory? Cause that never happened.

Because they took the delay of game penalty to have a better shot at pinning us deep...

[wolfkaosaun]

(10-16-2018, 08:55 PM)jfkbengals Wrote: Because they took the delay of game penalty to have a better shot at pinning us deep...

You're still wrong, because it was a 4th and 5, the penalty made it a 4th and 10.

Which is kind of funny, because you brought up pinning the Bengals back by taking that penalty.
Meanwhile, the Bengals didn't do that either.

[Hoofhearted]

(10-16-2018, 03:43 PM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: The Bengals punted on the Steelers 45, 43, and 40.
It's obvious that Marvin's "field position" battles against the Steelers never work. So. Again. You need to change the formula when you're 8-24. Now 8-25.
Oh, and haven't scored more than 21 points against the Steelers since 2009. Where they scored 23.
The Bengals haven't scored 24+ points against the Steelers since 2006.


The Steelers have scored 24+ against the Bengals 12 out of their last 18 games.

So. Yeah. Maybe TRYING to score more points than a team that routinely scores on you would have been a good idea.

Marvin deserves all the criticism in the world for failing time and time again against the Steelers.

It's not just him deciding when to punt either. He simply doesn't know when to be aggressive and when to play smart. Mixon carried the ball, what, 5 or 6 times from second quarter on? The all-out blitz when they were around the 30 yard line? And yes, even the punting are all clear signs that he just doesn't know when to roll the dice and when to play smart. 

[Hoofhearted]

(10-16-2018, 03:43 PM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: The Bengals punted on the Steelers 45, 43, and 40.
It's obvious that Marvin's "field position" battles against the Steelers never work. So. Again. You need to change the formula when you're 8-24. Now 8-25.
Oh, and haven't scored more than 21 points against the Steelers since 2009. Where they scored 23.
The Bengals haven't scored 24+ points against the Steelers since 2006.


The Steelers have scored 24+ against the Bengals 12 out of their last 18 games.

So. Yeah. Maybe TRYING to score more points than a team that routinely scores on you would have been a good idea.

Marvin deserves all the criticism in the world for failing time and time again against the Steelers.

It's not just him deciding when to punt either. He simply doesn't know when to be aggressive and when to play smart. Mixon carried the ball, what, 5 or 6 times from second quarter on? The all-out blitz when they were around the 30 yard line? And yes, even the punting are all clear signs that he just doesn't know when to roll the dice and when to play smart. 

[jj22]

Under Marvin, have we ever failed on a fake punt? Seems to me they are pretty good at them.

Something has to change.

[Interceptor]

(10-15-2018, 04:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually that is usually exactly how championships are won.

When was the last time you saw a Super Bowl champion go for it on fourth down in a tie game on the first possession of the second half?

Maybe if you are at the goal line and want to score a statement TD instead of a FG, but in that situation the opposing team is pinned down if you don't make it.

Championship coaches just don't go for it at the forty in that situation.

How about an onside kick to start the 2nd half?

Or a touchdown toss from a TE to his QB?

[fredtoast]

(10-18-2018, 01:29 PM)Interceptor Wrote: How about an onside kick to start the 2nd half?

Or a touchdown toss from a TE to his QB?

What about them?

When was the last time there was "media backlash" when a team didn't try an onside kick or a pass from TE to QB?

An overwhelming number of Championships are won with anything like that happening.

[fredtoast]

(10-17-2018, 01:14 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: It's not just him deciding when to punt either. He simply doesn't know when to be aggressive and when to play smart. Mixon carried the ball, what, 5 or 6 times from second quarter on? The all-out blitz when they were around the 30 yard line? And yes, even the punting are all clear signs that he just doesn't know when to roll the dice and when to play smart. 

So simple for a fan to say something like this because they assume that their decisions would always be correct and there is no way to prove them wrong.

I don't but that.  I think if the blitz had worked at the end of the game you all would have been calling it a great decision.  Funny how you all want Marvin to be more aggressive and then when he is and it does not work you grill him for being too aggressive.

Like I said.  easy to be right all the time when you have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight and the ability to claim your plan would always have worked.

[wolverine515151]

(10-15-2018, 02:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Tie game.  Defensive playing well.  The reason their is no media backlash is because it was the right decision.  

Mixon had just gotten stuffed on 3rd and 1. If we go for it and fail you all would be crying about how stupid it was to go for it.

Stop embarrassing yourself, the math indicated you go for it.  We have gone for it 13 of 79 times in the last 5 years for an average of 16.4%. 

The league average is to go for it around 50% in that situation. This right away indicates that the league is much less conservative on average than we have been.

More importantly, we have converted 9 of 13 when we go for it, that's close to 70%. There was a much greater chance of converting the fourth down than holding them to less than the 40 yard line and getting the ball back. 

It would, number one, assume that the punt doesn't go into the end zone, which could happen, and would give them the ball at the 20. Two, it would assume they don't bust out a big punt return. 

Then, if those two things go our way, hold them to 30 yards or less and get the ball back.  With our depleted defense due to injuries , that had been giving up a lot of yards, that was not a likely outcome. 

I would say there was a less than 20% chance for those  things to happen, good punt not into end zone, no big return, and hold them to less than 30 yards.  

Since 70% > 20% you absolutely go for it that situation. 

This is not all about being  too conservative, this is about understanding the percentages and playing the percentages. 

[grampahol]

(10-15-2018, 04:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Playing not to lose is smart. 

Claiming that you know we would have gotten it is absurd.  You have no idea what would have happened.

Ironically winning is the same as not losing except for a tie..Since I know of no coaches nor players who plan to tie games ahead of time I have to assume they all play to not lose. So...to review , winning is not losing unless the winners are all killed soon as the game is over in which case winning is losing.  Damned Marvin! He plays to not get killed after the game!  

[YsCascadia]

(10-18-2018, 02:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So simple for a fan to say something like this because they assume that their decisions would always be correct and there is no way to prove them wrong.

I don't but that.  I think if the blitz had worked at the end of the game you all would have been calling it a great decision.  Funny how you all want Marvin to be more aggressive and then when he is and it does not work you grill him for being too aggressive.

Like I said.  easy to be right all the time when you have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight and the ability to claim your plan would always have worked.

OK, so you are telling me that Mixon couldn't get 1 yard on 2 tries, he didn't get it on the 1st try, so you that means he can't get it on his 2nd try?  That Dalton is unable to keep the ball and get 1 yard?  The the Steelers defense is just so freaking awesomely amazing that they would stop us on 4th down no matter what?  Get real.

No, I don't know if going for it on 4th and 1 would have worked.  However I have seen Dalton use the hard count to get people to jump offsides pretty regularly.  I have seen teams line up to go for it on 4th down, and take a penalty when they failed to get the needed movement.  I also know that in snapping the ball and failing to convert isn't the worst thing to happen at this point in the game and even with it tied. 

Plenty of coaches go for it on 4th and 1 when past mid field and outside of FG range.  Even with the game tied. 

You should stop with the 20/20 hindsight BS because in this situation I, and many others, would have preferred that we go for it no matter what the outcome was.  We just have enough of an understanding to realize that odds are, we convert more than we don't.  I would have been happy if we just LINED up like we were going to go for it to try to get Watt or someone else to jump again, if not, take a 5 yard penalty, then punt.  Nope, the kicking unit went out immediately and there was no thought to going for it or not.

[SladeX]

(10-15-2018, 02:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Tie game.  Defensive playing well.  The reason their is no media backlash is because it was the right decision.  

Mixon had just gotten stuffed on 3rd and 1. If we go for it and fail you all would be crying about how stupid it was to go for it.

I would not! Really tired of marviMar close to the vest stuff. We were 4 and 1 by being uncharacteristically bold... . 

[fredtoast]

(10-18-2018, 03:52 PM)YsCascadia Wrote: OK, so you are telling me that Mixon couldn't get 1 yard on 2 tries, he didn't get it on the 1st try, so you that means he can't get it on his 2nd try?  That Dalton is unable to keep the ball and get 1 yard?  The the Steelers defense is just so freaking awesomely amazing that they would stop us on 4th down no matter what?  Get real.

So you think we should have gone for it even if we were at our own 10 yard line because it wasimpossible for us NOT to convert?

And I am the one that needs to "get real"?

[grampahol]

I think I'm just going to play it safe and go with the conspiracy theories that say Cincinnati has to lose to Pittsburgh every time as per NFL rules we never get to see.