Quick 3 round mock

[Whatever]

(01-23-2019, 10:09 PM)ochocincos Wrote: What teams are using safeties in a LB role? Perhaps I haven’t paid close enough attention because the only one who I can think of is Deone Bucannon.


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Morgan Burnett has been playing nickel LB for the Steelers.  He's requested his release as a result.  The Chargers played 7 DB's for 58 of 59 defensive snaps in their WC win over the Ravens, using S's as LB's.  They didn't put a single LB on the field 2/3 of the time.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-23-2019, 11:01 PM)Whatever Wrote: Morgan Burnett has been playing nickel LB for the Steelers.  He's requested his release as a result.  The Chargers played 7 DB's for 58 of 59 defensive snaps in their WC win over the Ravens, using S's as LB's.  They didn't put a single LB on the field 2/3 of the time.

Ok. But that’s 3 (including AZ) out of 32 teams. I don’t consider that “a lot.” I would consider a lot to be at least half the league. At minimum, 10 teams. Are there 10 teams doing this?


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[Whatever]

(01-23-2019, 11:21 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Ok. But that’s 3 (including AZ) out of 32 teams. I don’t consider that “a lot.” I would consider a lot to be at least half the league. At minimum, 10 teams. Are there 10 teams doing this?


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I can research more, but the Ravens and Pats have also done this to a lesser extent this year.  The Rams, Raiders, and Colts throw it in on occasion.  The Browns and Broncos run it a good deal.  

[Jpoore]

(01-23-2019, 02:33 PM)ochocincos Wrote: LB is still a huge need IMO. You have two veterans LBs set to hit FA in Rey and Brown. Evans did not look good. Jefferson wasn't put on the field hardly at all. Burfict didn't show signs of improving as the season went on. You shouldn't gamble solely on Burfict and Vigil staying on the field.

I'm also expecting to sign cj Mosley in free agency.

(01-23-2019, 10:43 PM)Synric Wrote: Adderley is gonna end up as a slot corner he reminds me of Minkah Fitzpatrick from last year. If the Bengals don't resign Dennard Adderley would be a great pick but if they do Adderley wouldn't have a role to start early.

They said the same thing when we drafted Bates last year as we had iloka and Williams.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-23-2019, 10:22 AM)Jpoore Wrote: Or stick with what we have for now. Get a solid rg rt isn't as big an issue. A solid rg is one less thing for the rt to worry about not to mention rt would feed off the rg.

I actually believe the other way around.  I think the RG can be manned by Redmond and/or Christerman but the RT position was the glaring weakness.   The run blocking on that side was ok, but the pass blocking around the right side was not.  

[Au165]

(01-23-2019, 11:01 PM)Whatever Wrote: Morgan Burnett has been playing nickel LB for the Steelers.  He's requested his release as a result.  The Chargers played 7 DB's for 58 of 59 defensive snaps in their WC win over the Ravens, using S's as LB's.  They didn't put a single LB on the field 2/3 of the time.

Chargers then tried it again the next week and got run over in embarrassing fashion. The reason it was ran against Baltimore was they needed to match Jackson's speed. The reason it wasn't exposed against Baltimore is that the Raven never attacked it with a power running game instead choosing to run more finesse concepts. The gimmick of the Safety at LB was short lived across the league after popping up a bit a few years back. Buchanon has kind of washed out with rumors Arizona wants to move on from him. An occasional sub package isn't bad but trying to play a safety at LB long term won't work because those guys have never had to stack and shed playing the secondary really. There only real engagement with linemen in the secondary is sealing the edge and when they want to seal the edge they will normally cut the offensive linemen. LB's have to use their hands to get off blocks and it something that is often why LB's fail but just hoping a safety can learn it is wishful thinking in most cases.

In terms of Adderly I see they are playing him at CB a bit at the senior bowl. That interests me a bit with versatility wise of CB/S. We can go with a big nickle package, so a 2nd round pick for him I'd be open to.

[McC]

(01-24-2019, 03:18 AM)Jpoore Wrote: I'm also expecting to sign cj Mosley in free agency.
They said the same thing when we drafted Bates last year as we had iloka and Williams.

No way the Ravens let him go.  He is the key to their defense.

[Jpoore]

(01-24-2019, 11:29 AM)McC Wrote: No way the Ravens let him go.  He is the key to their defense.

According g to the Ravens beat writers the lrganizaorga dosent wanna pay him more than 9 or 10

[Whatever]

(01-24-2019, 10:55 AM)Au165 Wrote: Chargers then tried it again the next week and got run over in embarrassing fashion. The reason it was ran against Baltimore was they needed to match Jackson's speed. The reason it wasn't exposed against Baltimore is that the Raven never attacked it with a power running game instead choosing to run more finesse concepts. The gimmick of the Safety at LB was short lived across the league after popping up a bit a few years back. Buchanon has kind of washed out with rumors Arizona wants to move on from him. An occasional sub package isn't bad but trying to play a safety at LB long term won't work because those guys have never had to stack and shed playing the secondary really. There only real engagement with linemen in the secondary is sealing the edge and when they want to seal the edge they will normally cut the offensive linemen. LB's have to use their hands to get off blocks and it something that is often why LB's fail but just hoping a safety can learn it is wishful thinking in most cases.

In terms of Adderly I see they are playing him at CB a bit at the senior bowl. That interests me a bit with versatility wise of CB/S. We can go with a big nickle package, so a 2nd round pick for him I'd be open to.

In fairness, the Chargers got run over by the Patriots, and the Pats are one of the few teams that still carry a FB.  They have a good power game when they need it.  And well, it was the Patriots in the playoffs.  I don't know if there is a defensive concept the Pats haven't wrecked in the playoffs.

I wouldn't like it used anywhere near as much as the Chargers.  However, on obvious passing downs and situations I think it would be good to use.  

[Whatever]

(01-24-2019, 01:26 PM)Jpoore Wrote: According g to the Ravens beat writers the lrganizaorga dosent wanna pay him more than 9 or 10

That would put him in the 2-5 range as far as pay scale.  Kuechley makes over $12 mil.  Mosely could get more than that on the open market, but his FT# falls right in the Ravens confort zone.

[Au165]

(01-24-2019, 01:26 PM)Whatever Wrote: In fairness, the Chargers got run over by the Patriots, and the Pats are one of the few teams that still carry a FB.  They have a good power game when they need it.  And well, it was the Patriots in the playoffs.  I don't know if there is a defensive concept the Pats haven't wrecked in the playoffs.

I wouldn't like it used anywhere near as much as the Chargers.  However, on obvious passing downs and situations I think it would be good to use.  

Doesn't matter you can run power without a FB. You can run power from single back with just the backside guard pulling and then kicking down. A lot of teams not do it with a TE motioning across the line and sealing then pulling the guard. Either way they went old school down hill running and any scheme that got linemen to the second level would have worked. It was a cute gimmick, but it wasn't sustainable. In all honesty the Ravens lost that game because their OC refused to mix it up and go back to their power running game.

Teams have ran quarter defenses before (1 Linebacker/7 DBs) but it's just not something you make a living doing. The issue is even on 3rd and 10 there is always a chance a team with a good veteran QB checks to a run play and then you are left out on the field in a mismatch especially if they hurry it up with the personnel stuck there. A lot of spread teams in college, including OSU, have done a lot of cool stuff with power running from spread looks which have made small personnel very dangerous to go to. Most teams are moving to Big Nickle personnel with a Safety playing as the slot CB as a counter to this.

[Whatever]

(01-24-2019, 01:42 PM)Au165 Wrote: Doesn't matter you can run power without a FB. You can run power from single back with just the backside guard pulling and then kicking down. A lot of teams not do it with a TE motioning across the line and sealing then pulling the guard. Either way they went old school down hill running and any scheme that got linemen to the second level would have worked. It was a cute gimmick, but it wasn't sustainable. In all honesty the Ravens lost that game because their OC refused to mix it up and go back to their power running game.

Teams have ran quarter defenses before (1 Linebacker/7 DBs) but it's just not something you make a living doing. The issue is even on 3rd and 10 there is always a chance a team with a good veteran QB checks to a run play and then you are left out on the field in a mismatch especially if they hurry it up with the personnel stuck there. A lot of spread teams in college, including OSU, have done a lot of cool stuff with power running from spread looks which have made small personnel very dangerous to go to. Most teams are moving to Big Nickle personnel with a Safety playing as the slot CB as a counter to this.

The Chargers ran that all year and were a Top 10 unit.  Their top 3 LB's only played 67, 37, and 25% of their defensive snaps on the year.  Power run is an obvious counter, but power run is the obvious counter to any "small" personnel group.  There is no perfect defense that's good against everything.  It's always a chess match.  This is just another piece to use.

After watching it for years, if Ben Roethlisberger wants to check to a run on 3rd and 10, I'll take my chances that someone is going to make the tackle short of the sticks.  

[Au165]

(01-24-2019, 02:46 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Chargers ran that all year and were a Top 10 unit.  Their top 3 LB's only played 67, 37, and 25% of their defensive snaps on the year.  Power run is an obvious counter, but power run is the obvious counter to any "small" personnel group.  There is no perfect defense that's good against everything.  It's always a chess match.  This is just another piece to use.

After watching it for years, if Ben Roethlisberger wants to check to a run on 3rd and 10, I'll take my chances that someone is going to make the tackle short of the sticks.  

This is where stats without context get you in trouble. Perryman got hurt mid year which is why he only played 37% of TOTAL SNAPS, however before he got hurt he played on average around 70% of the snaps in each game with most far beyond 70%. When you take into account the commonly held understanding that nickle is the new base the fact you have two backers who averaged about 70% playing time then sprinkled in another 3 or 4 guys with significant playing time you can discern that they played a lot of nickle with occasional base. They also used James as a sub LB at times, especially after Perryman went down.

Playing nickle or even dime is a far cry from NO BACKERS, which is what they ran in the playoffs. It's a gimmick and it got exposed and would have gotten exposed by any decent O coordinator. 

[*Synric*]

(01-24-2019, 03:18 AM)Jpoore Wrote: They said the same thing when we drafted Bates last year as we had iloka and Williams.

Completely different situations. They were looking all offseason for a safety to replace Iloka who was in the middle of his contract. If they resign Dennard it's because they want him to play.

[*Synric*]

(01-24-2019, 01:26 PM)Whatever Wrote: In fairness, the Chargers got run over by the Patriots, and the Pats are one of the few teams that still carry a FB.  They have a good power game when they need it.  And well, it was the Patriots in the playoffs.  I don't know if there is a defensive concept the Pats haven't wrecked in the playoffs.

I wouldn't like it used anywhere near as much as the Chargers.  However, on obvious passing downs and situations I think it would be good to use.  

(01-24-2019, 01:42 PM)Au165 Wrote: Doesn't matter you can run power without a FB. You can run power from single back with just the backside guard pulling and then kicking down. A lot of teams not do it with a TE motioning across the line and sealing then pulling the guard. Either way they went old school down hill running and any scheme that got linemen to the second level would have worked. It was a cute gimmick, but it wasn't sustainable. In all honesty the Ravens lost that game because their OC refused to mix it up and go back to their power running game.

Teams have ran quarter defenses before (1 Linebacker/7 DBs) but it's just not something you make a living doing. The issue is even on 3rd and 10 there is always a chance a team with a good veteran QB checks to a run play and then you are left out on the field in a mismatch especially if they hurry it up with the personnel stuck there. A lot of spread teams in college, including OSU, have done a lot of cool stuff with power running from spread looks which have made small personnel very dangerous to go to. Most teams are moving to Big Nickle personnel with a Safety playing as the slot CB as a counter to this.

It's a situational thing. The Bengals used Fej as the nickle linebacker at times most notably the Saints game. 

[Jpoore]

(01-24-2019, 03:31 PM)Synric Wrote: Completely different situations. They were looking all offseason for a safety to replace Iloka who was in the middle of his contract. If they resign Dennard it's because they want him to play.

I'm saying he would replace Williams

[*Synric*]

(01-24-2019, 03:55 PM)Jpoore Wrote: I'm saying he would replace Williams

I don't see Adderley as a full time safety. I see him as a Minkah Fitzpatrick type who is more of a slot corner. Which is an important position because of how much teams are running 11 personnel. 

[grampahol]

(01-23-2019, 02:33 PM)ochocincos Wrote: LB is still a huge need IMO. You have two veterans LBs set to hit FA in Rey and Brown. Evans did not look good. Jefferson wasn't put on the field hardly at all. Burfict didn't show signs of improving as the season went on. You shouldn't gamble solely on Burfict and Vigil staying on the field.

Burfict is a guy you really don't know how or if he'll respond well to another coach. If he gets back his old form he could be a force to be reckoned with, but it's a big if.  Back to his old form with the right coach could be a defensive wet dream. Just plodding him out there for name sake could be a disaster..  I'm not sure how I feel about him. It's real easy to bash him, call him names, say he's fat, lazy, stupid, injury prone, whatever, but when he's on top of his game he's about as good as they get at his position. When he's not he's about as useless as a wet tissue pocket knife. 

[Whatever]

(01-24-2019, 03:17 PM)Au165 Wrote: This is where stats without context get you in trouble. Perryman got hurt mid year which is why he only played 37% of TOTAL SNAPS, however before he got hurt he played on average around 70% of the snaps in each game with most far beyond 70%. When you take into account the commonly held understanding that nickle is the new base the fact you have two backers who averaged about 70% playing time then sprinkled in another 3 or 4 guys with significant playing time you can discern that they played a lot of nickle with occasional base. They also used James as a sub LB at times, especially after Perryman went down.

Playing nickle or even dime is a far cry from NO BACKERS, which is what they ran in the playoffs. It's a gimmick and it got exposed and would have gotten exposed by any decent O coordinator. 

I don't think anyone is advocating no backers for a base defense.

I'm also not sure where you are arriving at your conclusions about the Chargers from.

Let's look at the snap count % by position group for a team we all watch a lot, the Bengals.

DL-402.38%
LB-228.70%
CB-262.44%
S-206.37%

No big surprises here.  The Bengals are almost always running 4 DL and 2 S's, and we know they run 3 CB nickel base over 2/3 of the time.  

Look at SD's

DL-382.82%
LB-159.28%
CB-275.87%
S-273.36%

Statistically speaking, the Chargers are running only 1 LB more often than the Bengals are running 3. They are running a 3rd S almost as much as a 3rd CB and more often than a 2nd LB, and they run a 3rd CB more than the Bengals do.

[Au165]

(01-24-2019, 06:26 PM)Whatever Wrote: I don't think anyone is advocating no backers for a base defense.

I'm also not sure where you are arriving at your conclusions about the Chargers from.

Let's look at the snap count % by position group for a team we all watch a lot, the Bengals.

DL-402.38%
LB-228.70%
CB-262.44%
S-206.37%

No big surprises here.  The Bengals are almost always running 4 DL and 2 S's, and we know they run 3 CB nickel base over 2/3 of the time.  

Look at SD's

DL-382.82%
LB-159.28%
CB-275.87%
S-273.36%

Statistically speaking, the Chargers are running only 1 LB more often than the Bengals are running 3. They are running a 3rd S almost as much as a 3rd CB and more often than a 2nd LB, and they run a 3rd CB more than the Bengals do.

Looking at the game by game logs it appears the Chargers added the third safety beyond 20% a game or so once Perryman got hurt. Reading back to articles it sounds like it was a bit of necessity due to coverage concerns with their Lbs.

My point was you claimed they “ran it all year” and they really didnt. They ran a little more big nickle than most but again it’s skewed a bit when they lost Perryman injury. To my point teams will run over light personnel like the patriots did. Part of the issue at times is people like to do what they Do vs what teams give them versus the Pats who attack your weaknesses. I’d imagine if they show a ton of dime personnel next year they will get attacked.

Again, the Cards are ready to punt on the Buccanon experiment same with the Burnett thing in Pitt. Chargers got away with it a to an extent I wouldn’t go chasing it, especially as colleges are producing more smaller LBs who can run but already know how to stack and shed.

As a side note football outsiders does a really good analysis of this every off season. I’ll be interested to see how the break down their personnel groupings week by week and see how it matches with what I see looking at individual game logs.