Quick 3 round mock

[Hammerstripes]

(01-23-2019, 02:33 PM)ochocincos Wrote: LB is still a huge need IMO. You have two veterans LBs set to hit FA in Rey and Brown. Evans did not look good. Jefferson wasn't put on the field hardly at all. Burfict didn't show signs of improving as the season went on. You shouldn't gamble solely on Burfict and Vigil staying on the field.

Completely agree, but the way this team looks at it, I wouldn't be surprised if they again draft for depth at the position.

I think the only way that changes is if they decide to move on from Burfict.

[Hammerstripes]

(01-23-2019, 02:36 PM)Jpoore Wrote: A good rg makes a rt much better. Simple as that less to worry about. .lindstrom would transform this oline bc of the impact it would have on Hart. 

Not even a chance.  Boling didn't make Ced improve at all.  You can't have a liability on the outside of the line, they'll kill the offense every time.

[Whatever]

(01-24-2019, 08:54 PM)Au165 Wrote: Looking at the game by game logs it appears the Chargers added the third safety beyond 20% a game or so once Perryman got hurt. Reading back to articles it sounds like it was a bit of necessity due to coverage concerns with their Lbs.

My point was you claimed they “ran it all year” and they really didnt. They ran a little more big nickle than most but again it’s skewed a bit when they  lost Perryman injury. To my point teams will run over light personnel like the patriots did. Part of the issue at times is people like to do what they Do vs what teams give them versus the Pats who attack your weaknesses. I’d imagine if they show a ton of dime personnel next year they will get attacked.

Again, the Cards are ready to punt on the Buccanon experiment same with the Burnett thing in Pitt. Chargers got away with it a to an extent I wouldn’t go chasing it, especially as colleges are producing more smaller LBs who can run but already know how to stack and shed.

As a side note football outsiders does a really good analysis of this every off season. I’ll be interested to see how the break down their personnel groupings week by week and see how it matches with what I see looking at individual game logs.

That still doesn't explain away the vast snap count differences.  While they did rely on it more after the Perryman injury, they used it quite a bit before, depending on the opponent.  For example, look at the snap counts from their week 6 win over Cleveland...


James, FS 100%
Addai, SS 92%
Hayward, CB 91%
Phillips, SS 88%
King, CB 85%
Williams, CB 80%
Perryman, LB 66%
Jenkins, FS 34%
Davis, CB 30%
Emmanuel, LB 20%
Nwoso, LB, 15%
Facyson, CB 3%

Only 3 LB's saw defensive snaps the entire game, playing 66, 20, and 15% of the snaps, respectively.  Meanwhile, 3 CB's and 3 S's all played over 80% of the snaps.  The total percentage by group looks like...

S-314%
CB-289%
LB-101%

That would make their statistical average personnel grouping 3 S's, 3 CB's, and 1 LB.

The Chargers and Steelers both had top 10 defenses incorporating this concept.  The Steelers aren't giving up on it, per say.  Burnette just doesn't want to play the position.  They also toyed with using Polamalu in this fashion at the end of his career.  

[Au165]

(01-24-2019, 10:37 PM)Whatever Wrote: That still doesn't explain away the vast snap count differences.  While they did rely on it more after the Perryman injury, they used it quite a bit before, depending on the opponent.  For example, look at the snap counts from their week 6 win over Cleveland...


James, FS 100%
Addai, SS 92%
Hayward, CB 91%
Phillips, SS 88%
King, CB 85%
Williams, CB 80%
Perryman, LB 66%
Jenkins, FS 34%
Davis, CB 30%
Emmanuel, LB 20%
Nwoso, LB, 15%
Facyson, CB 3%

Only 3 LB's saw defensive snaps the entire game, playing 66, 20, and 15% of the snaps, respectively.  Meanwhile, 3 CB's and 3 S's all played over 80% of the snaps.  The total percentage by group looks like...

S-314%
CB-289%
LB-101%

That would make their statistical average personnel grouping 3 S's, 3 CB's, and 1 LB.

The Chargers and Steelers both had top 10 defenses incorporating this concept.  The Steelers aren't giving up on it, per say.  Burnette just doesn't want to play the position.  They also toyed with using Polamalu in this fashion at the end of his career.  

And again context, Jatavis Brown and Kyzir White were both hurt week 6. Their linebackers were hurt often throughout the year. They ended up deciding often their 3rd safety was better than their 5th LB.

Edit: as a side I’m aware of sub packages, I’m pointing out though that it’s not sustainable anything more than an occasional gimmick. Your not going to move a safety there full time and get positive results against 12 personnel and bigger. Against teams that go 11 mostly you’d be okay but if that becomes a go to for a team they will go heavier.

[Whatever]

(01-24-2019, 11:25 PM)Au165 Wrote: And again context, Jatavis Brown and Kyzir White were both hurt week 6. Their linebackers were hurt often throughout the year. They ended up deciding often their 3rd safety was better than their 5th LB.

Edit: as a side I’m aware of sub packages, I’m pointing out though that it’s not sustainable anything more than an occasional gimmick. Your not going to move a safety there full time and get positive results against 12 personnel and bigger. Against teams that go 11 mostly you’d be okay but if that becomes a go to for a team they will go heavier.

That still doesn't explain it.  Perryman and Nwosu both played their 3rd lowest snap count % of the year that game and Emanuel played his 7th lowest.  If it was due to being short, those guys would logically play more snaps, not less

White and Brown were both healthy for the Bills game, along with Perryman.  White and Perryman played only 61 and 60% of the snaps. Brown played 37% and Emanuel 27%.  That's still only 185%, and less than 2 LB's on the field on average.  Both starting S's and CB's all played 95% or more of the snaps.  King played 73% as the nickel CB.  S's Phillips and Jenkins played 44% and 16%.  This was something that was part of their gameplan that they expanded on due to injury, but it did largely work.  They were a Top 10 defense, beat KC, advanced in the playoffs, and beat all 3 of division rivals with it.

Nickel has become the default base defense because 3 WR's has become the new base offense.  The defense is always going to change based on the offensive personnel.  If you're running nickel and the offense comes out with an extra T lined up as a TE and a FB, you have to sub, too.  I don't think having the flexibility with our personnel to mix in some of what SD does, or big nickel, is really a bad thing.

[Jpoore]

(01-24-2019, 10:11 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Not even a chance.  Boling didn't make Ced improve at all.  You can't have a liability on the outside of the line, they'll kill the offense every time.

Ced was much better at left tackle than rt. But ced had no talent. Hart is just inconsistent. 

[*ochocincos*]

(01-24-2019, 10:10 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Completely agree, but the way this team looks at it, I wouldn't be surprised if they again draft for depth at the position.

I think the only way that changes is if they decide to move on from Burfict.

You can't really make that determination now given a whole new crop of coaches are coming in. We don't know how this new regime will focus on the LB position. I'm trying not to make any assumptions.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-24-2019, 05:50 PM)grampahol Wrote: Burfict is a guy you really don't know how or if he'll respond well to another coach. If he gets back his old form he could be a force to be reckoned with, but it's a big if.  Back to his old form with the right coach could be a defensive wet dream. Just plodding him out there for name sake could be a disaster..  I'm not sure how I feel about him. It's real easy to bash him, call him names, say he's fat, lazy, stupid, injury prone, whatever, but when he's on top of his game he's about as good as they get at his position. When he's not he's about as useless as a wet tissue pocket knife. 

That's fair, but I think it's fair to compare him to Eifert. He still can be elite, but he can also just as easily be bad or not available. Is that something the team should gamble on?