Someone is tearing up the senior bowl

[BengalChris]

(01-24-2019, 03:56 PM)Jpoore Wrote: He has like 7 inch hands. Not a fan when we already have Boyd.

Boyd will be a free agent at the end of 2019.

[Jpoore]

(01-26-2019, 12:33 PM)BengalChris Wrote: He can do what Ross has failed to do.

Ross just had a good rookie season. Let's not count him out just yet.

(01-26-2019, 12:36 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Boyd will be a free agent at the end of 2019.

Yes but he'll be resigned.

[BengalChris]

(01-26-2019, 01:06 PM)Jpoore Wrote: Ross just had a good rookie season. Let's not count him out just yet.
Yes but he'll be resigned.

Two rookie years. Had the leagues worst catch percentage by a long ways. Does he get a 3rd rookie season if he doesn't shine this year?

No guarantee the team re-signs Boyd. They didn't re-sign Sanu or Marvin Jones.

[McC]

(01-26-2019, 01:21 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Two rookie years. Had the leagues worst catch percentage by a long ways. Does he get a 3rd rookie season if he doesn't shine this year?

No guarantee the team re-signs Boyd. They didn't re-sign Sanu or Marvin Jones.

I looked around for his number of drops and found one sourxe saying 4 and one site saying 7 but that might have been career, and another saying 4.

Wouldn't catch pct. be at least partially determined by the QB?  I saw him underthrown and overthrown a lot.  Usually, when the ball was to him, he caught it.  Not always,  Bust most of the time,  In fact, he made a few very good catches.  And he was open a lot.

He can't beat press, a lot say.  If you're beating your man badly in the end zone for a three yard touchdown, how far away could your man hve been?  

The way I look at him is, he's not as good as you'd hope he would be but he's not as  bad as his haters make him out to be.  And it seems like no coincidence that most of his haters hated the pick to begin with and can't allow themselves to believe that he's anything but a lost cause.

There's lion in him.  You can see it.  But for whatever reason, there's lamb in there too.  Somebody just needs to find a way to get the lamb out of him and get him back to that college guy who knew nobody could cover him.

[fozzie11]

honestly being an Ohio State fan McLaurin never really caught my eye, but that's not really a bad thing, seems to me like he could be a very good ST guy and could develop into a very good #3/#2 option for a lot of NFL teams.

the guy who caught my eye at the senior bowl is Terrill Hanks OLB New Mexico state. he's drawing Darius Leonard comparisons, which would be awesome.

[samhain]

(01-24-2019, 10:02 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: He's always been a dangerous receiver.  Many weren't aware of him, because there were so many good weapons on the team at Ohio St., and they tried to spread the ball around.

I'm surprised he wasn't more highly regarded already.  He seemed like he was making plays all the time at OSU.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-26-2019, 03:05 PM)McC Wrote: Wouldn't catch pct. be at least partially determined by the QB?  I saw him underthrown and overthrown a lot.  Usually, when the ball was to him, he caught it.  Not always,  Bust most of the time,  In fact, he made a few very good catches.  And he was open a lot.

Determining catch percentage would be kind of tough.  We don't know how many plays the ball was designed to thrown to a spot, rather than to the actual man.  Andy doesn't strike me as the type of individual that would divulge material to make a teammate look bad, so we may never know the statistical truth.

Anyway, I feel like the team would be foolhardy to rely on John Ross for serious production, at this point.  I think that he still has some developing and proving to do.  However, I do believe it is time for the team to start planning for life post AJ Green.  He's absorbed a ton of physical punishment over the years, all of those collisions and injuries add up.  I would completely expect Tyler Boyd to be given at least a 3 year extension, as he has more than proven himself as a reliable go-to-guy, and even clutch at times.  To run a prolific offense like they do in LA, they're going to need some extra receiving weapons.  I wouldn't be surprised at all, if the Bengals add 1-2 receivers capable of threatening the starting lineup, either through free agency or the draft.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-26-2019, 03:20 PM)samhain Wrote: I'm surprised he wasn't more highly regarded already.  He seemed like he was making plays all the time at OSU.

Yeah, he didn't have a ton of touches, but it seemed like every time he touched the ball, he made something big happen.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3121422/terry-mclaurin

11 TDs and 705 yds, on 35 catches for a 20/ypc avg.  Not too shabby


Just for comparison's sake, here's Hunter Renfrow's stats.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3135321/hunter-renfrow

1 TD on 49 catches, for only an 11/ypc avg.  You can clearly see that Renfrow did much less with a lot more opportunity.

[BengalChris]

(01-26-2019, 03:05 PM)McC Wrote: I looked around for his number of drops and found one sourxe saying 4 and one site saying 7 but that might have been career, and another saying 4.

Wouldn't catch pct. be at least partially determined by the QB?  I saw him underthrown and overthrown a lot.  Usually, when the ball was to him, he caught it.  Not always,  Bust most of the time,  In fact, he made a few very good catches.  And he was open a lot.

He can't beat press, a lot say.  If you're beating your man badly in the end zone for a three yard touchdown, how far away could your man hve been?  

The way I look at him is, he's not as good as you'd hope he would be but he's not as  bad as his haters make him out to be.  And it seems like no coincidence that most of his haters hated the pick to begin with and can't allow themselves to believe that he's anything but a lost cause.

There's lion in him.  You can see it.  But for whatever reason, there's lamb in there too.  Somebody just needs to find a way to get the lamb out of him and get him back to that college guy who knew nobody could cover him.

nfl.com has the stats.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#catch-percentage

[McC]

(01-26-2019, 04:02 PM)BengalChris Wrote: nfl.com has the stats.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#catch-percentage

Still didn't see anything about the throws.  Or how many drops.  What I see is an incomplete picture.  And a lot of really bad throws in his direction.  Or sort of in his direction.

We'll see what Zac and company can do with him.   Maybe those everybody go beat your man schemes are a thing of the past.

[SunsetBengal]

(01-26-2019, 04:02 PM)BengalChris Wrote: nfl.com has the stats.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#catch-percentage

Wow, Boyd had a 70% catch rate, and AJ Green only 59%.

[BengalChris]

(01-26-2019, 04:16 PM)McC Wrote: Still didn't see anything about the throws.  Or how many drops.  What I see is an incomplete picture.  And a lot of really bad throws in his direction.  Or sort of in his direction.

We'll see what Zac and company can do with him.   Maybe those everybody go beat your man schemes are a thing of the past.

Catch percentage is catch percentage CTCH%. Targets is TAR. Receptions or catches is REC. The guy either did or did not catch the ball thrown to him. Drops are an arbitrary stat somebody makes up based on their opinion and doesn't take into account the receiver running the wrong route, giving up on the route, being out fought for the ball.

We can compare to other Bengals receivers to see if QB accuracy was a problem.

AJ Green had a catch percentage of 59.7%. 

Boyd was at 70.4%.

Uzomah was at 67.2%.

No other Bengals receivers had enough targets to qualify for the list.

So there you have it, 36% catch percentage. It leaves a lot for him to work on. He was dead last in the league. Not second to last or in the bottom 20%, but absolutely the last.

[BengalChris]

(01-26-2019, 04:18 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Wow, Boyd had a 70% catch rate, and AJ Green only 59%.

Yeah. I happen to believe some of that is Andy forcing the ball to Green, but obviously that can't account for all of it. I've seen Green go low and pick balls off the turf, which is really hard for a guy his height. So we get the good with the bad I guess.

Uzomah's 67% is also nice. I would like to see the team re-sign him. He won't draw a lot of attention from other teams but he did turn out to be a serviceable backup.

[McC]

(01-26-2019, 04:34 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Catch percentage is catch percentage CTCH%. Targets is TAR. Receptions or catches is REC. The guy either did or did not catch the ball thrown to him. Drops are an arbitrary stat somebody makes up based on their opinion and doesn't take into account the receiver running the wrong route, giving up on the route, being out fought for the ball.

We can compare to other Bengals receivers to see if QB accuracy was a problem.

AJ Green had a catch percentage of 59.7%. 

Boyd was at 70.4%.

Uzomah was at 67.2%.

No other Bengals receivers had enough targets to qualify for the list.

So there you have it, 36% catch percentage. It leaves a lot for him to work on. He was dead last in the league. Not second to last or in the bottom 20%, but absolutely the last.

Still didn't answer my question but I'm not gonna derail the thread any further.   So, if I target you a hundred times and the ball is nowhere near you and you catch none of them, does that make your reception pct zero?

Bottom line, I believe he's fixable.

[BengalChris]

(01-26-2019, 04:45 PM)McC Wrote: Still didn't answer my question but I'm not gonna derail the thread any further.   So, if I target you a hundred times and the ball is nowhere near you and you catch none of them, does that make your reception pct zero?

Bottom line, I believe he's fixable.

I believe such a poor QB would show up in the other receivers' stats as well. You can compare Ross to the other receivers on the same team with he same QBs.

If the receiver is suppose to be at spot X and the ball is at spot X, but receiver isn't at spot X it's still a target and a non-catch. If the receiver is at spot X but the ball isn't, then it's still a target and a non-catch. Nobody catches 100% of their targets.

The receiver's #1 job is to catch the ball. Playing games with the stats that having arbitrary justifications for him not catching the ball is bogus. If the receiver is not where he's suppose to be and the ball is it won't count as a drop because he couldn't have caught it. It's a target and a non-catch.

Coaching comes into play in a big way. Receiver needs to be coach to run right route. QB needs to be coached to throw ball to right spot. Team needs to play as a coordinated unit.

Catch percentage compared with the catch percentage of other receivers on the team tell us exactly how that receiver played. It's a really simple concept.

Look at it like this: If running back A had a 2.2 yard per carry average for a season you really don't know if the line was bad or the RB was bad. But if the other RBs on that same team gained say 4.5 and 3.9 yards per carry, then you can tell right there that this one RB had a significantly lower yards per carry and you would want to figure out why that was and fix it.

[*Synric*]

(01-26-2019, 05:04 PM)BengalChris Wrote: I believe such a poor QB would show up in the other receivers' stats as well. You can compare Ross to the other receivers on the same team with he same QBs.

If the receiver is suppose to be at spot X and the ball is at spot X, but receiver isn't at spot X it's still a target and a non-catch. If the receiver is at spot X but the ball isn't, then it's still a target and a non-catch. Nobody catches 100% of their targets.

The receiver's #1 job is to catch the ball. Playing games with the stats that having arbitrary justifications for him not catching the ball is bogus.

Catch percentage compared with the catch percentage of other receivers on the team tell us exactly how that receiver played. It's a really simple concept.

Look at it like this: If running back A had a 2.2 yard per carry average for a season you really don't know if the line was bad or the RB was bad. But if the other RBs on that same team gained say 4.5 and 3.9 yards per carry, then you can tell right there that this one RB had a significantly lower yards per carry and you would want to figure out why that was and fix it.

Except you are missing one huge variable. Dalton was getting the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds (2.3 through 9 weeks) meaning he was throwing to a spot. If the receiver does not win off the line and get to that spot it effects the outcome of the play.

[BengalChris]

(01-26-2019, 05:15 PM)Synric Wrote: Except you are missing one huge variable. Dalton was getting the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds meaning he was throwing to a spot. If the receiver does not win off the line and get to that spot it effects the outcome of the play.

So receiver needs to do his job and get to that spot and be coached on how to get off the line. It's the receiver's job to get there. It's not the QB's job to change the trajectory of the ball while it's in the air to account for the receiver not getting out of a jam at the line.

There's a lot that goes into coaching and the last Bengals staff didn't do a good job with Ross or Ross just doesn't get it or a combination of both or maybe they all gave up.

[*Synric*]

(01-26-2019, 05:18 PM)BengalChris Wrote: So receiver needs to do his job and get to that spot and be coached on how to get off the line. It's the receiver's job to get there. It's not the QB's job to change the trajectory of the ball while it's in the air to account for the receiver not getting out of a jam at the line.

I think I misread your post so we are arguing the same point. 

Alot of it was the actual plays called. Lazor didnt scheme guys open giving QB or WRs space to work. It didnt help that Alex Redmond had allowed a bunch of pressures in less than 2.5 seconds. 

[BengalChris]

(01-26-2019, 05:21 PM)Synric Wrote: I think I misread your post so we are arguing the same point. 

Alot of it was the actual plays called. Lazor didnt scheme guys open giving QB or WRs space to work. It didnt help that Alex Redmond had allowed a bunch of pressures in less than 2.5 seconds. 

The coaching really left a lot to be desired as did personnel selection on the OL and LB.

We don't know how the players will respond to the new coaching staff. Hopefully they all respond well.

[Whatever]

(01-26-2019, 04:34 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Catch percentage is catch percentage CTCH%. Targets is TAR. Receptions or catches is REC. The guy either did or did not catch the ball thrown to him. Drops are an arbitrary stat somebody makes up based on their opinion and doesn't take into account the receiver running the wrong route, giving up on the route, being out fought for the ball.

We can compare to other Bengals receivers to see if QB accuracy was a problem.

AJ Green had a catch percentage of 59.7%. 

Boyd was at 70.4%.

Uzomah was at 67.2%.

No other Bengals receivers had enough targets to qualify for the list.

So there you have it, 36% catch percentage. It leaves a lot for him to work on. He was dead last in the league. Not second to last or in the bottom 20%, but absolutely the last.

This really doesn't give a great picture if you're trying to use it to determine how good a receiver is.  If every route had the same chance of success, teams would just run go routes every play.  Part of the reason Boyd has a higher % than AJ is that he was used primarily in the slot running short routes that result in high % throws.  Ross was primarily sent on deep routes to clear things out for guys like Boyd underneath.  It's like saying one basketball player is better than another because he has a higher FG % when he's mostly shooting lay ups and the other guy is mostly shooting 3 pointers.

Nobody is saying Ross doesn't need to improve, but I don't see how anyone can be totally down on a guy with 7 TD catches, either.