Will they really pick a LBer in 1st round ?

[Hammerstripes]

As usual with the Bengals, their needs are obvious. So, if White goes at 5, I guarantee someone trades into the 10 spot to take Bush.

[*bengalfan74*]

(03-28-2019, 07:14 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I will be somewhat nervous on draft day.  I think it is important for Taylor to hit several solid picks for the Bengals to have a chance to turn things around.  I have no ideal who they are targeting.  They may target White but Oliver would be hard to pass up.  I still think TE is in play.  

I fear they may select a QB which I understand but man, that would mean the season is in rebuild mode.  They need two backers even with the Brown signing and they need probably two OT.  I do not think they go CB at 11.

The way they've basically sat on their hands in free agency, again. I think if this getting older core is to have any chance they have to nail picks 1-3 !

(03-28-2019, 07:31 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: If you wanted Hopkins over Price at that time i don't know what to say to you. It was the right pick even if Price got injured and didn't play the way everyone expected him to. He still has great upside and i know he will be much better than Hopkins. We needed a Center and we got one finally, he should be the answer down the road.

Disagree on Bush not being a 1st round talent as well. If White isn't there i would trade back and take him in the first no prob. If we ignore Linebacker early after only re-signing Preston in FA we will regret it. Tem has only so much talent to work with and this was by far the biggest weakness on this team last year.

We can get a decent RT in the 2nd round like Risner.

Agree

After the top 3 LBers there's a pretty steep drop in talent ! Brown and Vigil are ok, but we need a real impact player to shore up that struggling middle of the field defense.

[Hammerstripes]

(03-28-2019, 10:42 PM)PlayadLc Wrote: I’m still going Oline in the 1st.

Depends on how it shakes out.

If Jonah Williams and Jawan Taylor are gone, then there's not a guy worth that pick.

[Goalpost]

So Kiper gave out an interview and said in his newest mock, he has Bush going to us. Says that Bush has jumped 19 spots on his big board and could be listed as 9th overall on his board. Not a reach according to him. Cites the trend of offenses and need for speedy linebackers.

[THE PISTONS]

I think size is the big concern with Bush. Has freak athletic numbers which is nice. Will he be able to shed blocks in the Pros?

If he can, he could be a really good LB.

I see him forecasted to play OLB in the Pros.

[yang]

(03-28-2019, 02:54 PM)Ravage Wrote: It's actually 5 LB's, not 4 (see below). That's actually a decent percentage if you think about it. Excluding special teams (K/P), fullback, and generalizing S's and LB's into one position group each, there's 12 main positions for a football team to draft: QB, RB, WR, TE, T, G, C, DE, DT, LB, CB, S. So, over 30 1st round picks across 27 drafts (this'll be MB's 28th draft coming up) if all things were equal you'd figure for about 2.5 of each position over those 30 picks and 27 years, and they've taken 5 LB's. So LB's are actually double the expected rate and tied with CB's as the most frequently drafted position under MB. And we've seen at least one of each of those positions under MB (all drafts '92-present). 

QB: Klingler, Smith, Palmer (3)
HB: Carter, Perry (2)
WR: Warrick, Green, Ross (3)
TE: Gresham, Eifert (2)
T: Willie Anderson, Levi Jones, Andre Smith, Ogbuehi (4)
G: Zeitler (1)
C: Price (1)
DE: John Copeland, Justin Smith (2)
DT: Dan Wilkinson (1)
LB: Reinard Wilson*, TKO, Simmons, Pollack, Rivers (5)
CB: Jonathan Joseph, Hall, Kirkpatrick, Dennard, WJIII (5)
S: Darryl Williams (1)

* Don't forget, while Reinard Wilson was a DE in college, the Bengals were playing a 3-4 back then and switched him to LB just like they did with David Pollack years later. So they've taken 5, not 4 LB's. I remember that draft vividly because I was listening to it on the radio while at work and when the pick was announced it was "LB, FSU, Reinard Wilson" and I got pissed...in front of customers. Got in a bit of trouble at work for that pick. They flipped him back and forth but Wilson was taken to be a LB in our 3-4.
Or a CB...Jonathan Joseph in 2006 was the first 1st round CB the Bengals ever took save for the CB/S hybrid that was Rickey Dixon. And I remember Dixon as a S, not a CB while in Cincy.

ugh, aside from just linebackers this makes me wonder whey even pay attention to the draft.  Damn we suck at it. This explains all the years of abysmal play.    

All those pick and AJ Green might be the only possible HoFer.    A couple decent corners and lineman.  But damn.  It is weird how few DE and DT's we take as well.    We suck

[depthchart]

(03-29-2019, 01:26 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I think size is the big concern with Bush. Has freak athletic numbers which is nice. Will he be able to shed blocks in the Pros?

If he can, he could be a really good LB.

I see him forecasted to play OLB in the Pros.

Yeah,  Devin Bush worries me some.

He ran a 4.43 forty at the combine at around 5' 11 inches tall and 234 pounds.

Malik Jefferson ran a 4.52 forty at around 6' 2 inches tall and 236 pounds.

Malik is a little slower yet is a larger framed man at 6' 2.

I like Devin Bush's speed but wonder how well he will adapt with his shorter stature.

I would probably take someone else at pick #11 that seems like more of a sure thing than Bush and that would probably not be a Linebacker (unless Devin White is there)

Don't want a Malik 2.0 experience with Bush using a 1st round pick instead of the 3rd rounder used on Malik.

I still have hopes that Malik will pan out though.

[Hammerstripes]

(03-29-2019, 01:38 PM)yang Wrote: ugh, aside from just linebackers this makes me wonder whey even pay attention to the draft.  Damn we suck at it. This explains all the years of abysmal play.    

All those pick and AJ Green might be the only possible HoFer.    A couple decent corners and lineman.  But damn.  It is weird how few DE and DT's we take as well.    We suck

It's cyclical for most teams.  Hell, even the team that's won the most Super Bowls in the past 10 years hasn't killed the draft.  I will say this, the Bengals have had some pretty good picks over the past years.   I read a long time ago that the typical roster turns over every 7 years - so you need to be able to add 3 staters in each draft to be successful building a team.  We've had a few like that, but the misses on Fisher and Ced REALLY hurt this team.

(03-29-2019, 01:44 PM)depthchart Wrote: Yeah,  Devin Bush worries me some.

He ran a 4.43 forty at the combine at around 5' 11 inches tall and 234 pounds.

Malik Jefferson ran a 4.52 forty at around 6' 2 inches tall and 236 pounds.

Malik is a little slower yet is a larger framed man at 6' 2.

I like Devin Bush's speed but wonder how well he will adapt with his shorter stature.

I would probably take someone else at pick #11 that seems like more of a sure thing than Bush and that would probably not be a Linebacker (unless Devin White is there)

Don't want a Malik 2.0 experience with Bush using a 1st round pick instead of the 3rd rounder used on Malik.

I still have hopes that Malik will pan out though.

Huge difference between the two.  Bush has played at a very high level and has shown that he is an instinctive playmaker.  I never really felt that Malik did that in college.  He had some flashes, but it's like the light never really turned on for him.

The more I watch Bush, the more I think he would be a perfect fit in Cincy.  Sure, he's short, but he has the speed and awareness to cover tight ends and backs.  That's been the black hole for this defense for years.  That being said, I would still rather go O-line or D-line (or even TE with Hock at #11)

[depthchart]

(03-29-2019, 01:51 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Huge difference between the two.  Bush has played at a very high level and has shown that he is an instinctive playmaker.  I never really felt that Malik did that in college.  He had some flashes, but it's like the light never really turned on for him.

The more I watch Bush, the more I think he would be a perfect fit in Cincy.  Sure, he's short, but he has the speed and awareness to cover tight ends and backs.  That's been the black hole for this defense for years.  That being said, I would still rather go O-line or D-line (or even TE with Hock at #11)

The difference better be huge if Bush goes in the Top half of round one versus Malik in round 3.

It would be devastating, however, should we swing and Whiff of Bush and Malik remains a Whiff also.

I'm with you in that there are other players at other positions that I would prefer over Bush right now.

[I_C_DeadPeople]

(03-29-2019, 10:18 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: As usual with the Bengals, their needs are obvious.  So, if White goes at 5, I guarantee someone trades into the 10 spot to take Bush.

I can guarantee that there are no guarantees in the draft

[Hammerstripes]

(03-29-2019, 02:11 PM)I_C_DeadPeople Wrote: I can guarantee that there are no guarantees in the draft

Hah, so true.....

But how many times does Lapham get on the radio and blurt about who he things we will pick and then magically......

Will Fuller goes right before us
Frank Ragnow goes right before us

Those are off the top of my head, but it's happened more to us than anyone.

[I_C_DeadPeople]

(03-29-2019, 02:17 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Hah, so true.....

But how many times does Lapham get on the radio and blurt about who he things we will pick and then magically......

Will Fuller goes right before us
Frank Ragnow goes right before us

Those are off the top of my head, but it's happened more to us than anyone.

More than anything that speaks to the team not doing it's homework on other teams draft needs. If they wanted Ragnow and thought the Lions may take him, they should have tried to jump ahead and given up on of those 'precious' mid round comp picks. But more times than not we sit back and wait to see who falls. I would prefer if they targeted players and moved up and down when needed in a more active manner. 

[Whatever]

(03-29-2019, 01:51 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: It's cyclical for most teams.  Hell, even the team that's won the most Super Bowls in the past 10 years hasn't killed the draft.  I will say this, the Bengals have had some pretty good picks over the past years.   I read a long time ago that the typical roster turns over every 7 years - so you need to be able to add 3 staters in each draft to be successful building a team.  We've had a few like that, but the misses on Fisher and Ced REALLY hurt this team.



Huge difference between the two.  Bush has played at a very high level and has shown that he is an instinctive playmaker.  I never really felt that Malik did that in college.  He had some flashes, but it's like the light never really turned on for him.

The more I watch Bush, the more I think he would be a perfect fit in Cincy.  Sure, he's short, but he has the speed and awareness to cover tight ends and backs.  That's been the black hole for this defense for years.  That being said, I would still rather go O-line or D-line (or even TE with Hock at #11)

How was Bush more of a playmaker?  Malik had more sacks, generated more turnovers, scored more TD's, had more tackles, more TFL, and had almost as many solo tackles as Bush had total tackles for their careers.  The only stats Bush has the edge in are picks(1 to 0) and PD'S (11 to 5).

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2019, 02:23 PM)I_C_DeadPeople Wrote: More than anything that speaks to the team not doing it's homework on other teams draft needs. If they wanted Ragnow and thought the Lions may take him, they should have tried to jump ahead and given up on of those 'precious' mid round comp picks. But more times than not we sit back and wait to see who falls. I would prefer if they targeted players and moved up and down when needed in a more active manner. 

You have no idea if they try to trade up or not.  Maybe there just were not any teams willing to move back in the draft.  You can't just force other teams to trade with you.

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2019, 01:38 PM)yang Wrote: ugh, aside from just linebackers this makes me wonder whey even pay attention to the draft.  Damn we suck at it. This explains all the years of abysmal play.    

All those pick and AJ Green might be the only possible HoFer.    A couple decent corners and lineman.  But damn.  It is weird how few DE and DT's we take as well.    We suck

Right.  We have a winning record over the last 16 years because of all the free agents we signed.  


 

[Ravage]

(03-29-2019, 01:38 PM)yang Wrote: ugh, aside from just linebackers this makes me wonder whey even pay attention to the draft.  Damn we suck at it. This explains all the years of abysmal play.    

All those pick and AJ Green might be the only possible HoFer.    A couple decent corners and lineman.  But damn.  It is weird how few DE and DT's we take as well.    We suck

It isn't that bad. Palmer, AJ, Gresham, Eifert (if healthy), Willie, Levi, Andre Smith, Zeitler, Justin Smith, Wilkinson, Spikes, Simmons, J Joe, Hall, WJIII, Dre (kinda), Dennard, and Williams all were/are good players. That's 18/28 (Price and Ross it's too early to call). Then you have to wonder what Pollack would have done if not for the neck injury, same could be said of Rivers (he wasn't the same after Ward broke his jaw). If you add those two you're at 20/30 and while 66.6% hit rate on picks isn't unbelievable, it's better than average.

Missing on the 2 QB's (Klingler and Smith) really set them back because of how important QB is; doubly so for Akili since they turned down Ditka's 'take all my picks' trade offer. Ki-Jana really hurt them due to not just being the #1 pick, but the extra picks they gave up to move from #5 to #1. And we're still reeling from the aftermath of what drafting Ogbuehi (and Fisher) brought down upon us. That's the real problem. Whiffing on a pick is bad; but whiffing on a pick that has catastrophic ramifications is back breaking, and the Bengals have had at least 4 of them in the last 27 years.

Expecting a 1st rounder (or any draft pick for that matter) to be a HoFer is setting yourself up for perpetual disappointment. And since the HoF is a deeply flawed institution to begin with, it should not be considered a measure of success for a team. Sure it LOOKS nice to have a bunch of HoFers, and it certainly is, but it's ultimately a popularity contest with no rhyme or reason to it. Any HoF that has Dan Fouts in it and Ken Anderson not in it, is a goddamn joke.

That being said, I think you're underselling the Bengals' quantity of HoF caliber players over the last 27 drafts. A.J. might be the best chance, but there are certainly others. Geno I'd say has a decent shot. Chad would likely be in if not for how things ended in Miami (and the HoF jacket stunt). Corey Dillon could & should get in. In a fair and just world Willie Anderson certainly would be in. And considering how well he played after leaving the Bengals, I could see an argument for Justin Smith being made, though personally I'd say no.

A better way to look at it is "Did the draft pick play well and contribute?" Because there's tons of guys who might not be HoF material that were/are instrumental to a team's success. Look at T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Was he a HoF caliber WR? Not by a long shot. But was Housh an insanely important contributor to some of the best Bengals offenses we've seen in 30 years? Absolutely! And I don't think you'll find many people around who would say T.J. wasn't an absolutely phenomenal 7th round draft pick.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-29-2019, 12:28 AM)Whatever Wrote: Price should develop into a better C than Hopkins with time.  However, he was already injured when he was drafted and it was a stretch to think he was going to come in play at a high level.  In time, hopefully the pick pays off.  However, the point is that we as fans often overestimate what rookie draft picks are going to do and underestimate what guys that have been in the league a few years can do.

Yeah, I totally disagree on Bush.  In three years in college, he generated one turnover and has only 10 more solo tackles than assisted tackles.  He's a good blitzer, but that's really the only thing that stands out on tape.

Agree with what you say about us fans overestimating what rookie draft picks are going to do to a point. But i was really high on Bates and Hubbard and both played even better than i thought they would for rookies.

Yes, we totally disagree on Bush, he is not only a great blitzer he is very good in coverage and can tackle well. We don't have a Linebacker on this team like this, would be a good pick in the 1st in my opinion at our greatest position of need. Center was our biggest position of need last season and i still love the Price pick and have high hopes for our Center position for the first time since we had Braham.

Kind of a big deal right there...

(03-29-2019, 01:06 AM)Joelist Wrote: I'm not worried about Price yet. He missed preseason time with injury recovery and yes he had one badly blown block early in the Colts game. But for the rest of that game he looked good. Then he was looking good against the Rats but got hurt early in the game and missed that game and the next 5 - not good for a rookie trying to learn the most complex position on the offensive line.

As to this year I really do hope we go LB in Round 1 and OT in Round 2. I would even consider trading up to ensure we get the player we need.

Completely agree with everything you say here Joelist, great post as usual.

(03-29-2019, 01:55 AM)Jakeypoo Wrote: There are a couple of sleepers at LB that you can get later in the drafts.

I like Sione Takitaki in the mid rounds out of BYU, can play MIKE and both outside spots.

[Joelist]

I think it will be interesting to see how the league reacts to what New England did in the playoffs to teams that embodied the "lighter, faster coverage LB" craze - played power football and just blew them off the line of scrimmage. I suspect that we will start to see teams keeping some bigger LBs around so they can change out when power football comes to town.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-29-2019, 05:52 PM)Joelist Wrote: I think it will be interesting to see how the league reacts to what New England did in the playoffs to teams that embodied the "lighter, faster coverage LB" craze - played power football and just blew them off the line of scrimmage. I suspect that we will start to see teams keeping some bigger LBs around so they can change out when power football comes to town.

Yes, have to keep some bigger Linebackers around no question just in case. That is the thing about the Patriots, they always keep you guessing. Right when you think you have them figured out they change it up. Man would i love to have that out of our coaching for once.

[J24]

(03-29-2019, 05:52 PM)Joelist Wrote: I think it will be interesting to see how the league reacts to what New England did in the playoffs to teams that embodied the "lighter, faster coverage LB" craze - played power football and just blew them off the line of scrimmage. I suspect that we will start to see teams keeping some bigger LBs around so they can change out when power football comes to town.

Teams will just spread out and isolate those guys one on one.