Starting to Think We Go QB Early

[RunKijanaRun]

I've been reading a lot of draft reports.

Currently, WAS appears to be the favorite to land Rosen. This will probably change 189 times before an actual move is made, and it really doesn't matter unless the team who acquires him is CIN. Point is, if he is dealt, it removes one entry from the list of teams in the market for a QB.

So let's examine who could or should be considering QB in the 1st.

ARI - obviously all in on Murray
NYG - they should have done this 2 years ago but amazingly it's no sure thing they go QB with either 1st rd pick
DEN - This franchise desperately needs a QB and recent news has them zeroing in on Lock
MIA - Possibly the most qb-needy team in the draft
WAS - Discussed briefly above; they would no longer be here if the Rosen deal consummates
Other possibilities: OAK, GB, TB

So let's take WAS off the board for the time being and assume they trade for Rosen.

CIN picks at 11, 1 spot behind DEN, 5 spots behind NYG's 1st and 6 spots ahead of NYG's 2nd.
MIA picks at 13.

If GB/TB/OAK/Wildcard decide to go QB it probably won't be in the first round.

So with Murray off the board at 1 and assuming DEN takes Lock at 10 (which is a hell of an assumption), we're left with Haskins unless NYG takes him at 6, which no one seems to think will happen. Some noise out there that Haskins is slipping and may go 4th out of the 4 projected 1st round QBs (Murray/Lock/Jones/Haskins).

It's not outrageous to think that MIA or NYG (with their 2nd pick) could try to trade up with us to assure themselves of landing Haskins/Lock/possibly even Jones. If they don't trade up with us, they certainly could with someone else.

If one of those teams trades up and all the teams who could be looking QB draft that way, we'd still be looking at one of Jones/Haskins/Lock at 11, depending on which guys the other teams choose. That's worst case, and I don't think Jones is worthy of the 11th pick, but that's not the point of this post.

If more than one team trades ahead of us and a truly remarkable run on QBs occurs, taking all the 1st round-types off the board, we'd have some good options in the 2nd - most notably, my guy Will Grier.

However, if most of the prevailing mocks are correct, neither MIA nor NYG will address QB in the first. In a truly crazy world, DEN could punt with their pick as well, leaving us with 3 options at 11. If DEN takes Lock, we'd still be staring at Haskins and Jones.

I don't think Devin White will be there at 11. Jawaan Taylor is probably the best OL in the draft, and he'll be gone before we pick. Both Iowa TEs are off the board as we re-signed Eifert. If the non-qb route is chosen by the teams ahead of us or if someone trades up for someone other than a QB, players at other positions of need could be scooped up.

So we will likely have legit QB options staring us in the face with both our 1st and 2nd round picks. It's possible that we could have a choice of all 3 (Jones, Lock, Haskins) at 11 and I don't think we let that opportunity pass.

Even if we don't take one of them we'll still likely have Grier or another good QB waiting in the 2nd (Ryan Findley, possibly Jarret Stidham or they fall in love with that oaf from Buffalo).

Lot of mocks are trending this way for us as well.

[Luvnit2]

(04-08-2019, 11:08 AM)RunKijanaRun Wrote: I've been reading a lot of draft reports.

Currently, WAS appears to be the favorite to land Rosen. This will probably change 189 times before an actual move is made, and it really doesn't matter unless the team who acquires him is CIN. Point is, if he is dealt, it removes one entry from the list of teams in the market for a QB.

So let's examine who could or should be considering QB in the 1st.

ARI - obviously all in on Murray
NYG - they should have done this 2 years ago but amazingly it's no sure thing they go QB with either 1st rd pick
DEN - This franchise desperately needs a QB and recent news has them zeroing in on Lock
MIA - Possibly the most qb-needy team in the draft
WAS - Discussed briefly above; they would no longer be here if the Rosen deal consummates
Other possibilities: OAK, GB, TB

So let's take WAS off the board for the time being and assume they trade for Rosen.

CIN picks at 11, 1 spot behind DEN, 5 spots behind NYG's 1st and 6 spots ahead of NYG's 2nd.
MIA picks at 13.

If GB/TB/OAK/Wildcard decide to go QB it probably won't be in the first round.

So with Murray off the board at 1 and assuming DEN takes Lock at 10 (which is a hell of an assumption), we're left with Haskins unless NYG takes him at 6, which no one seems to think will happen. Some noise out there that Haskins is slipping and may go 4th out of the 4 projected 1st round QBs (Murray/Lock/Jones/Haskins).

It's not outrageous to think that MIA or NYG (with their 2nd pick) could try to trade up with us to assure themselves of landing Haskins/Lock/possibly even Jones. If they don't trade up with us, they certainly could with someone else.

If one of those teams trades up and all the teams who could be looking QB draft that way, we'd still be looking at one of Jones/Haskins/Lock at 11, depending on which guys the other teams choose. That's worst case, and I don't think Jones is worthy of the 11th pick, but that's not the point of this post.

If more than one team trades ahead of us and a truly remarkable run on QBs occurs, taking all the 1st round-types off the board, we'd have some good options in the 2nd - most notably, my guy Will Grier.

However, if most of the prevailing mocks are correct, neither MIA nor NYG will address QB in the first. In a truly crazy world, DEN could punt with their pick as well, leaving us with 3 options at 11. If DEN takes Lock, we'd still be staring at Haskins and Jones.

I don't think Devin White will be there at 11. Jawaan Taylor is probably the best OL in the draft, and he'll be gone before we pick. Both Iowa TEs are off the board as we re-signed Eifert. If the non-qb route is chosen by the teams ahead of us or if someone trades up for someone other than a QB, players at other positions of need could be scooped up.

So we will likely have legit QB options staring us in the face with both our 1st and 2nd round picks. It's possible that we could have a choice of all 3 (Jones, Lock, Haskins) at 11 and I don't think we let that opportunity pass.

Even if we don't take one of them we'll still likely have Grier or another good QB waiting in the 2nd (Ryan Findley, possibly Jarret Stidham or they fall in love with that oaf from Buffalo).

Lot of mocks are trending this way for us as well.

I have been doing a lot of QB research. The best deep ball is Lock. In fact Lock is top 3 in mobility, pocket presence, short/medium throws and almost every category evaluated.

Assuming my 1st choice Murray is gone, I would have no issue with Lock being of QB of the future. On the other hand, Haskins really concerns me as not good with mobility, a 1st round pick in today's NFL needs to be able to help win with his movement and hos legs. Haskins does not and will not do that.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-08-2019, 11:16 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I have been doing a lot of QB research. The best deep ball is Lock. In fact Lock is top 3 in mobility, pocket presence, short/medium throws and almost every category evaluated.

Assuming my 1st choice Murray is gone, I would have no issue with Lock being of QB of the future. On the other hand, Haskins really concerns me as not good with mobility, a 1st round pick in today's NFL needs to be able to help win with his movement and hos legs. Haskins does not and will not do that.

Disagree on Haskins.  While he might not have straight line speed, he is just elusive enough and keeps his eyes downfield and has the best vision in the QB class.  I hate to say it, but it reminds me a bit of Piggy how he will wait until a downfield option becomes available and will extend plays if his first read isn't available.  I would put him in the same mobility class as Dalton.  Good enough, but his arm talent and vision is outstanding.  

That being said, I think Murray, Haskins, and Lock are all gone when the Bengals pick.  I have no idea who Miami would want to trade up for at that point, so things could get interesting above #11.  It is all good for the Bengals.  If three QBs go early, then some outstanding defensive talent and offensive line talent might be there at #11. 

[depthchart]

(04-08-2019, 11:23 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: That being said, I think Murray, Haskins, and Lock are all gone when the Bengals pick. 

The Bengals are in a very good position to either Trade Up (for a QB or other player they really want) or Trade Down & get a sweet deal from someone.

I agree that all three of the QB's you mentioned will likely be gone when the Bengals pick which means they have to Trade Up if they really want one of those three.

Duke's Daniel Jones could still be on the Board when the Bengals pick. They could simply take him if he is their man or Trade Down with a team that wants Jones. (maybe trade down with the Giants to pick #17)

If Zac has some say on what they do (and is really an Innovator), then maybe we will see some maneuvering either up or down given that the Bengals are sitting in a decent spot for trading at pick #11.

[XenoMorph]

(04-08-2019, 11:08 AM)RunKijanaRun Wrote: I've been reading a lot of draft reports.

Currently, WAS appears to be the favorite to land Rosen. This will probably change 189 times before an actual move is made, and it really doesn't matter unless the team who acquires him is CIN. Point is, if he is dealt, it removes one entry from the list of teams in the market for a QB.

So let's examine who could or should be considering QB in the 1st.

ARI - obviously all in on Murray
NYG - they should have done this 2 years ago but amazingly it's no sure thing they go QB with either 1st rd pick
DEN - This franchise desperately needs a QB and recent news has them zeroing in on Lock
MIA - Possibly the most qb-needy team in the draft
WAS - Discussed briefly above; they would no longer be here if the Rosen deal consummates
Other possibilities: OAK, GB, TB

So let's take WAS off the board for the time being and assume they trade for Rosen.

CIN picks at 11, 1 spot behind DEN, 5 spots behind NYG's 1st and 6 spots ahead of NYG's 2nd.
MIA picks at 13.

If GB/TB/OAK/Wildcard decide to go QB it probably won't be in the first round.

So with Murray off the board at 1 and assuming DEN takes Lock at 10 (which is a hell of an assumption), we're left with Haskins unless NYG takes him at 6, which no one seems to think will happen. Some noise out there that Haskins is slipping and may go 4th out of the 4 projected 1st round QBs (Murray/Lock/Jones/Haskins).

It's not outrageous to think that MIA or NYG (with their 2nd pick) could try to trade up with us to assure themselves of landing Haskins/Lock/possibly even Jones. If they don't trade up with us, they certainly could with someone else.

If one of those teams trades up and all the teams who could be looking QB draft that way, we'd still be looking at one of Jones/Haskins/Lock at 11, depending on which guys the other teams choose. That's worst case, and I don't think Jones is worthy of the 11th pick, but that's not the point of this post.

If more than one team trades ahead of us and a truly remarkable run on QBs occurs, taking all the 1st round-types off the board, we'd have some good options in the 2nd - most notably, my guy Will Grier.

However, if most of the prevailing mocks are correct, neither MIA nor NYG will address QB in the first. In a truly crazy world, DEN could punt with their pick as well, leaving us with 3 options at 11. If DEN takes Lock, we'd still be staring at Haskins and Jones.

I don't think Devin White will be there at 11. Jawaan Taylor is probably the best OL in the draft, and he'll be gone before we pick. Both Iowa TEs are off the board as we re-signed Eifert. If the non-qb route is chosen by the teams ahead of us or if someone trades up for someone other than a QB, players at other positions of need could be scooped up.

So we will likely have legit QB options staring us in the face with both our 1st and 2nd round picks. It's possible that we could have a choice of all 3 (Jones, Lock, Haskins) at 11 and I don't think we let that opportunity pass.

Even if we don't take one of them we'll still likely have Grier or another good QB waiting in the 2nd (Ryan Findley, possibly Jarret Stidham or they fall in love with that oaf from Buffalo).

Lot of mocks are trending this way for us as well.

most mock drafts are completely wrong just remember that as they are all just someones opinion

[*Nately120*]

(04-08-2019, 11:16 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I have been doing a lot of QB research. The best deep ball is Lock. In fact Lock is top 3 in mobility, pocket presence, short/medium throws and almost every category evaluated.

Assuming my 1st choice Murray is gone, I would have no issue with Lock being of QB of the future. On the other hand, Haskins really concerns me as not good with mobility, a 1st round pick in today's NFL needs to be able to help win with his movement and hos legs. Haskins does not and will not do that.

I've pointed out before that I like Drew Lock because he sounds so much like the RC-cola to Andrew Luck's Coke/Pepsi.  Who is your QB?  Drew Lock.  WOW, did you say Andrew Luck?  Well, no but this is his bootleg and unlicensed knock-off version!  He's the Robert Cop to Luck's Robocop.

(04-08-2019, 11:39 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: most mock drafts are completely wrong just remember that as they are all just someones opinion

Meh, well that's part of trying to make an educated guess on what is going to happen.  If being 100% right is the only thing that matters we would be making mock drafts now for the 2018 draft. Baker Mayfield goes #1 overall to the Browns...bank on it!

[RunKijanaRun]

(04-08-2019, 11:39 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: most mock drafts are completely wrong just remember that as they are all just someones opinion

thanks

[fredtoast]

I don't think we go QB.

If three QBs are already off the board we better not take number 4. If 3 QBs are taken in the top 10 then there will be some VERY good tlent left for us at other positions.

[yang]

Keep in mind Arizona could just be blowing smoke to entice a monster trade and they have a young first round QB with Rosen. And really, everyone could be blowing smoke with Murray given his size.


I think the Bengals are happy with Dalton and think he can do better in Zach's system, more like 2015. It is very system oriented and doesn't call for a lot of QB play after things break down.

Lock and Haskins both have upside and potential buy have worries as well. None of them project like can't miss and at this pick we "can't miss".

With that said, if we took one of them you get behind it and just hope for the best.

[*Nately120*]

(04-08-2019, 12:28 PM)yang Wrote: Keep in mind Arizona could just be blowing smoke to entice a monster trade and they have a young first round QB with Rosen.  And really, everyone could be blowing smoke with Murray given his size.  

True, but AZ also has a desperate GM on his last chance and a somewhat absurd HC coming in.  It's not too absurd to think of the two of them going all-in on a new QB, logic be damned.  Hell, I bet people were sure Mike Brown was bluffing about taking Akili Smith when all logic and a mountain of picks said he wouldn't dare.

[jj22]

They would have had to do a lot more in Free agency to spend the pick on a QB. All signs point to an LB.

And good. We need our 1st round pick to contribute. Unless we are rebuilding and again, no signs this offseason point to a rebuild.

We have to try to remember how bad a qb class this is. As time gets closer these qb's will be pushed up, but NO ONE had Murray going number 1 until Zona hired Kliff. He was basically a day 2 prospect. All other qb's in this class would have been day 2 picks if they were in last years class.

[*Nately120*]

(04-08-2019, 12:46 PM)jj22 Wrote: They would have had to do a lot more in Free agency to spend the pick on a QB. All signs point to an LB.

And good. We need our 1st round pick to contribute. Unless we are rebuilding and again, no signs this offseason point to a rebuild.

How many good LBs are in this draft?  I've seen the top LB not making it past #5 or so.

[RunKijanaRun]

(04-08-2019, 12:49 PM)Nately120 Wrote: How many good LBs are in this draft?  I've seen the top LB not making it past #5 or so.

Not a bunch. We all want White but I see no way he drops to us.

And folks, I did not write this post to advocate taking a QB at 11. I don't necessarily think that's the right move, although I do want Grier in RD 2. 

Just reading the tea leaves a bit. 

[NKURyan]

I wouldn't be shocked if they took a QB, but I do wonder if we aren't overthinking this a bit. I still think in the end it's LB, and maybe multiple times in the first 3 rounds.

[J24]

The only way I would be willing to draft a QB is if they make a major trade down with a team like the Colts for multiple 2nd Rd picks.

[Hammerstripes]

(04-08-2019, 12:28 PM)yang Wrote: Keep in mind Arizona could just be blowing smoke to entice a monster trade and they have a young first round QB with Rosen.  And really, everyone could be blowing smoke with Murray given his size.  


I think the Bengals are happy with Dalton and think he can do better in Zach's system, more like 2015.  It is very system oriented and doesn't call for a lot of QB play after things break down.  

Lock and Haskins both have upside and potential buy have worries as well.  None of them project like can't miss and at this pick we "can't miss".  

With that said, if we took one of them you get behind it and just hope for the best.

Nobody, and I do mean nobody, is going to give up a monster trade for any QB in this draft.

The only one that I've heard smoke around is Oakland and Kyler Murray.  If that's the case (and Arizona does't really want him) the Raiders are going to stay put.  The Jets and the 49ers aren't going QB and I don't see anyone else that would move up for him,

[*Synric*]

(04-08-2019, 12:55 PM)RunKijanaRun Wrote: Not a bunch. We all want White but I see no way he drops to us.

And folks, I did not write this post to advocate taking a QB at 11. I don't necessarily think that's the right move, although I do want Grier in RD 2. 

Just reading the tea leaves a bit. 

Will Grier at 42 would be a perfect pick for the Bengals...

[CJD]

I wouldn't mind it.

I am not one of those people who thinks Andy Dalton is the worst thing ever. I think he is a good QB who is capable of winning games.

The problem is...this is a QB driven league now. Especially now that rookie contracts are so insanely affordable. So, back in the early 2000s, a team could draft a star QB, but then they'd have to immediately have a lot of cap space wrapped up in that QB. Nowadays, with players like Jared Goff making a measly 4 million dollars a year, it's much harder to compete with teams that are getting elite production out of their QB without paying a premium for it (as they did pre-Bradford, who was the last #1 overall pick to make an absurd amount of money.)

With that in mind, it will be incredibly difficult for us, as a team, to ever truly compete with those teams unless we just have the most amazing (and cheap) defense ever. Which will be very difficult because, in order for Dalton to be good, he "needs" several weapons built around him.

Now, I'm not saying elite QBs don't need good pass catchers to be good. But they aren't as reliant on them Dalton is. Without good receivers, Dalton is actually just a bad QB. We've seen that every year Green or Eifert (or both) gets injured.

So, if your odds of ever being successful with Dalton are incredibly low, even with an amazing team built around him, why not just replace him? Does finishing 8-8 or 9-7 even do anything for you at this point?

I want a playoff win...and it seems like that is something Dalton is just incapable of providing for us.

[fredtoast]

(04-08-2019, 01:40 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Now, I'm not saying elite QBs don't need good pass catchers to be good. But they aren't as reliant on them Dalton is. Without good receivers, Dalton is actually just a bad QB. We've seen that every year Green or Eifert (or both) gets injured.

This just is not true.

2016 Green and Eifert were both out with injury yet Dalton had 4200+ yds and a 92 passer rating.

In 2013 when Tom Brady was missing Gronk and had no other decent receivers his passer rating was lower than Dalton's.

[Shouldamapads]

I think it would be a terrible move to draft a QB first round when the defense is the obvious glaring hole on this team. We were torched repeatedly on third and long last season because we couldn't cover anyone with a LB in the middle of the field. We didn't address the need in the FA market, now we have to address it.

I am not saying ignore the QB future, but QBs can play into their 40s, Dalton is 32. We are not pressed to make that decision until next year when Dalton is up for contract.

If this team does not make marked improvement in the defensive personnel, expect a season no better than last year.