Starting to Think We Go QB Early

[grampahol]

(04-18-2019, 08:52 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: You essentially have one side saying "anything's possible" and one side saying "nope, never, zero chance". I'll let y'all decide which side is more reasonable.

There's a small subset saying that Taylor is the greatest coaching hire in Bengals history before he first snap is even played. I don't happen to belong in that particular subset.. "Anything's possible" is essentially hedging your bets in most cases. More often than not I go with anything's possible just because the occasional fluke does happen. In the Bengals case it's usually the competition that gets the lucky fluke. We get the fluke injury and a would-be superstar with one injury after another. (See Eifert) 
I'm not predicting QB @ 11, but...anything's possible and it's possible we get the greatest QB ever with more injuries than a civil war battlefield. I'm leaning more toward defense @ 11.

[Essex Johnson]

(04-19-2019, 11:02 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: He didn't have to. That's how hype works. People were excited before the season began, because we hired a hyped HC candidate and drafted the consensus top QB and Heisman winner. Just knowing we had a franchise QB on the bench waiting to take over got people hyped. I can still vividly remember Carson's preseason debut against the Jets. People were stoked to see him for the first time. 

I bought my first Bengals tickets in 2003, when the Bengals were off to a 1-4 start. They weren't "winning", yet the ticket sales were already up by 4.1% over the previous year. Average attendance in the first 3 home games of 2002 was 58,279. Average attendance in the first 3 home games of 2003 was 60,656. 

2002 schedule:

Chargers
Bucs
Steelers

2003 schedule:

Broncos
Steelers
Ravens

2003 new HC and first pick of draft , so two variables that would support believe the "HYPE" our attendance should have really went up, well i think 10 percent and that still was very low end overall attendance.  I would account some of that interest to winning.. 4-12 to 8-8 finally breaking the long season losing streaks.  Im going with our Davis quote "Win Baby" over Hype.  Pick the player you feel best helps our team at this point to win..... 

[grampahol]

Anyone remember the rise in ticket sales and hype when TO was brought in to match with 85? Yeah, plenty of hype that lead to that memorable 4-12 season.. 
I really don't care how many tickets get sold. I'd be perfectly happy if the stadium was completely empty as long as they're winning. Winning always takes care of ticket sales. "Maybe" players sometimes sells tickets, but guarantees us nothing other than a lot of maybe's..

[Shake n Blake]

(04-19-2019, 01:14 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: 2003 new HC and first pick of draft , so two variables that would support believe the "HYPE" our attendance should have really went up, well i think 10 percent and that still was very low end overall attendance.  I would account some of that interest to winning.. 4-12 to 8-8 finally breaking the long season losing streaks.  Im going with our Davis quote "Win Baby" over Hype.  Pick the player you feel best helps our team at this point to win..... 

But our attendance was up by over 2000 on average during a 1-4 start, coming off of 2-14.

Some might shrug at 2000 tickets, but I doubt the Brown family does. That's significant.

Of course hype is fickle and disappears pretty quickly if winning doesn't follow, but I wonder how many people bought season tix due to Marvin/Carson heading into 2003? 

[Whatever]

(04-18-2019, 04:38 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I honestly don't know if Browns fans were excited by new QBs or not. If they weren't, I'd wager their track record had something to do with it. 

You weren't excited when we drafted Palmer? In general I think Palmer and Lewis were why people were excited going into 2003...and that was before we started winning.

I watch people throw up new QBs on the boards literally every year and you guys don't think some people would be excited if we finally pulled the trigger? Guess I'll have to just disagree there.

And no, I didn't help your point. Re-read the post. I said that a new QB could learn behind Andy AND we could trade Andy next year.

It's a different situation.  The Bengals didn't have a decent QB when Palmer was drafted, so obviously there was a lot of hype and hope around Palmer.  There was a good chance he would be better than guys like Akili Smith and Gus Frerrotte.  It's a lot less likely that a rookie will be better than Dalton.  There will be some excitement if it's Haskins, mainly because there's a large number of Ohio State fans that will go nuts for any highly rated OSU player the Bengals take.

I don't think it happens for a number of reasons.  If Mike Brown made big changes for the purposes of pumping up the fans and pushing ticket sales, Marvin would have been gone a long time ago.  He just doesn't run the team that way.  Mike said he wanted to give Dalton a year under Taylor and I think that's exactly what he does.  I also think that after Zac would lose a large chunk of the locker room if they went QB after he talked Andy up so much.  He would come off as two faced and many of the players wouldn't trust him.  Plus, if there's a QB at 11, I'm sure the Dolphins and or Redskins will be calling.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-20-2019, 01:56 AM)Whatever Wrote: It's a different situation.  The Bengals didn't have a decent QB when Palmer was drafted, so obviously there was a lot of hype and hope around Palmer.  There was a good chance he would be better than guys like Akili Smith and Gus Frerrotte.  It's a lot less likely that a rookie will be better than Dalton.  There will be some excitement if it's Haskins, mainly because there's a large number of Ohio State fans that will go nuts for any highly rated OSU player the Bengals take.

I don't think it happens for a number of reasons.  If Mike Brown made big changes for the purposes of pumping up the fans and pushing ticket sales, Marvin would have been gone a long time ago.  He just doesn't run the team that way.  Mike said he wanted to give Dalton a year under Taylor and I think that's exactly what he does.  I also think that after Zac would lose a large chunk of the locker room if they went QB after he talked Andy up so much.  He would come off as two faced and many of the players wouldn't trust him.  Plus, if there's a QB at 11, I'm sure the Dolphins and or Redskins will be calling.

Fair points and I'd add that we're drafting at #11 not #1 overall. You're also right that I think Andy has a backing in the locker room. Especially from AJ Green. Then again, the players loved Marvin, too. 

Fwiw, the only QB's that I think would bring excitement to the fanbase are Murray and Haskins. 

Also fair point on Mike not bending to fans, but after awhile, I think he does at least consider the fans when PBS has looked empty for a few years. I'm not saying that he would make moves directly based on what fans want, but I do believe the front office could feel pressure or motivation to make moves to bring fans back. 

Not sure if I buy the 2 faced thing. Coaches lie in the sports all the time. Some of the best ones do. It's all about the team, not the individual. That's why when a new coach throws support behind the QB, it's often called the kiss of death. Same deal with new GM's supporting coaches, but we're not used to an actual GM.  

Tbh, unless by some miracle Murray is sitting at 11, I hope we trade back with a QB needy team. 

[The Real Deal]

WATCH THESE 3 MINUTES with @dh_simba7 I PROMISE YOU ITS WORTH IT... ? on ? #NFLDraft @getupespn @espngreeny @albertbreer @laurarutledge pic.twitter.com/g8ZPZWAbnS

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) April 19, 2019

[Atomic Orange]

"The Bengals didn't have a decent QB when Palmer was drafted"

Actually and especially by Bengals standards they did. Kitna was a micro revelation after the misery of Akili Smith and put up pretty decent numbers in 03, built a nice connection with Chad himself - and led the team to 8-8, which again by Bengals standards was pretty great.

He then led the team to 2-1 in 2004 before being replaced by Golden boy who i wasn't really that excited about until 2005 due to the  Klingler and Akili busts. I even remember thinking it may be a mistake when they pulled Kitna in 04 for Palmer because he was winning.

Here's the numbers:
Kitna
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KitnJo00.htm
Palmer
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PalmCa00.htm
Chad:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnCh01.htm

Again, mostly talking about 03/04 here

[Whatever]

(04-20-2019, 01:02 PM)Atomic Orange Wrote: "The Bengals didn't have a decent QB when Palmer was drafted"

Actually and especially by Bengals standards they did. Kitna was a micro revelation after the misery of Akili Smith and put up pretty decent numbers in 03, built a nice connection with Chad himself - and led the team to 8-8, which again by Bengals standards was pretty great.

He then led the team to 2-1 in 2004 before being replaced by Golden boy who i wasn't really that excited about until 2005 due to the  Klingler and Akili busts. I even remember thinking it may be a mistake when they pulled Kitna in 04 for Palmer because he was winning.

Here's the numbers:
Kitna
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KitnJo00.htm
Palmer
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PalmCa00.htm
Chad:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnCh01.htm

Again, mostly talking about 03/04 here

Kitna was the starter for the disastrous 2-14 campaign that led to the #1 overall pick and posted a 79 QBR.  He had a career year in '03 while Palmer rode the pine, but he was a journeyman at best.  

[grampahol]

Kitna was never anything special. He was at best a serviceable backup who just happened to be a starter. I'd still take Andy any day over Kitna. If the Bengals do take a QB early I'll be surprised and it guarantees nothing other than the possibility of Andy's eventual replacement or a wasted pick. Either way that's iffy.. 

[Shake n Blake]

(04-20-2019, 03:25 PM)Whatever Wrote: Kitna was the starter for the disastrous 2-14 campaign that led to the #1 overall pick and posted a 79 QBR.  He had a career year in '03 while Palmer rode the pine, but he was a journeyman at best.  

I'd say he was decent. Far better than what we were dealing with before him, for sure.

That 79 rating ranked him 20th in passer rating, which was respectable. He was 12th in yards/game and 7th in completion %.

We inserted Kitna in week 3, and after the BYE, he and Chad had a pretty great 9 game stretch. During that time:

- We averaged 24.3 points 
- Kitna averaged 259 yards, 1.7 TD's with a 90.5 rating
- Chad averaged 91.3 yards on a whopping 18.3 yards per catch

Despite their performance down the stretch, we only went 2-7 in these games, thanks to our league worst scoring defense. 

Kitna and Chad flashed their chemistry in 2002 though, so it wasn't a surprise that they blew up in 2003.

[fredtoast]

(04-19-2019, 10:32 AM)depthchart Wrote: I would agree if just going by how good the prospect is. Palmer may have even seemed like a more "can't miss" than Murray.

There seems to be a hip, new, cool or circus atmosphere factor that gets attached to certain players over others.

A "pizzazz" factor that generates interest.

Andy Dalton has somewhat run his course in the area of generating National Media interest and would likely have to make a deep Playoff run to get ESPN, NFL Network etc to fawn all over him.

Meanwhile, I expect plenty of fawning over Kyler Murray due to his aura & playing style from the National Media similar to fawning over Baker Mayfield.

This should boost the number, length etc of National Media stories and programming which in turn should influence fan interest in the Bengals Nationally & locally.

Jersey sales, interest by kids & young people in Kyler etc.

If Kyler spends a few years sucking, however, then the glimmer could wear off but I would expect an initial spike in National Media attention, fan interest and ticket sales should Kyler become the face of the Bengals.

Similar to how Baker Mayfield has been received and maybe even more of an impact given Kyler's unusual playing style.

2010 was the biggest pre-season hype the Bengals have received in my recent memory.  Yet they finished 28th in home attendence because they did not win.

We have a new coach.  If fans are going to get excited over something new they will buy tickets for a new coach.  Other than that  new QB won't make any difference.

Winning is what matters and the best chance of us winning the most going forward is to improve the team, and right now QB is not one of our major problems.

[Benton]

(04-21-2019, 10:40 AM)fredtoast Wrote: 2010 was the biggest pre-season hype the Bengals have received in my recent memory.  Yet they finished 28th in home attendence because they did not win.

We have a new coach.  If fans are going to get excited over something new they will buy tickets for a new coach.  Other than that  new QB won't make any difference.

Winning is what matters and the best chance of us winning the most going forward is to improve the team, and right now QB is not one of our major problems.

Personally, I think 03 was bigger than 10 from a fan excitement aspect. That was the first decent off-season we had had under Mike. 

As far as fans buying tickets, a lot of folks are torn right now. Some love the moves so far, some hate them. If the browns are just looking at tickets sales, they may try and lock down fans with a splashy draft. I don't think they will as brown has never been a splashy guy, but who knows. I don't think he likes empty seats 

[Shake n Blake]

(04-21-2019, 10:40 AM)fredtoast Wrote: 2010 was the biggest pre-season hype the Bengals have received in my recent memory.  Yet they finished 28th in home attendence because they did not win.

We have a new coach.  If fans are going to get excited over something new they will buy tickets for a new coach.  Other than that  new QB won't make any difference.

Winning is what matters and the best chance of us winning the most going forward is to improve the team, and right now QB is not one of our major problems.

If it's all about winning, not hype at all, then why did we finished 27th in home attendance in 2010, but dead last in 2011? 

2010 = hype but no wins
2011 = no hype, but wins

[fredtoast]

(04-21-2019, 12:28 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: If it's all about winning, not hype at all, then why did we finished 27th in home attendance in 2010, but dead last in 2011? 

2010 = hype but no wins
2011 = no hype, but wins

Long term winning sells more than hype.

This year's hype is the new coach.  For years fans have been telling the Mike they'd have hope with a new coach.  So now they have him.  That should be the hype needed to sell more seats.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-21-2019, 02:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Long term winning sells more than hype.

This year's hype is the new coach.  For years fans have been telling the Mike they'd have hope with a new coach.  So now they have him.  That should be the hype needed to sell more seats.

Of course long term winning sells more than hype.

But if you haven't been winning for a few years, you need as much hype as possible to sell tickets. I'm not sure a coaching change alone is enough. When we hired Marvin Lewis, we also drafted Palmer and signed Kevin Hardy, John Thornton, Duane Clemons, Tory James, Reggie Kelly, etc. It was a new coaching staff AND a good off-season in general.

This off-season pales in comparison.

[fredtoast]

(04-21-2019, 03:47 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Of course long term winning sells more than hype.

But if you haven't been winning for a few years, you need as much hype as possible to sell tickets. I'm not sure a coaching change alone is enough. When we hired Marvin Lewis, we also drafted Palmer and signed Kevin Hardy, John Thornton, Duane Clemons, Tory James, Reggie Kelly, etc. It was a new coaching staff AND a good off-season in general.

This off-season pales in comparison.

Well I think we have about beaten this to death.

I don't think we go QB in the first round.  I don't think we should.  But some draft "experts" have projected us taking a QB, so I am not saying it is impossible.  I just don't think it is the right move.

[grampahol]

(04-19-2019, 01:14 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: 2003 new HC and first pick of draft , so two variables that would support believe the "HYPE" our attendance should have really went up, well i think 10 percent and that still was very low end overall attendance.  I would account some of that interest to winning.. 4-12 to 8-8 finally breaking the long season losing streaks.  Im going with our Davis quote "Win Baby" over Hype.  Pick the player you feel best helps our team at this point to win..... 

In the same vein I wonder how quick Zac will be to cut underperforming players to replace with someone else during and before or after the season(s) as opposed to just hanging onto someone just because they've had good games in the past or were drafted high..
It seems in the past we've hung onto certain guys for reasons fans never quite got..

That said, I'm not sure we go QB early, but they do need to address the backup because I along with many other Bengals fans have little to no faith in Jeff Driskel to win if Andy goes down again.

[J24]

I doubt they get a QB early because some team will trade up to take one. I agree with Shake though Haskins would sell tickets but that doesn't make it the right move.

[grampahol]

(04-22-2019, 01:40 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: I doubt they get a QB early because some team will trade up to take one. I agree with Shake though Haskins would sell tickets but that doesn't make it the right move.

And of course short term ticket sales boosts win championships as evidenced by...nothing.. Nothing like zero evidence to point to the lack of evidence, eh?