Please pass on Montez Sweat

[SunsetBengal]

Beware those combine phenoms. He put up unreal numbers in the combine, and then had a heart condition discovered. This team doesn't need another Tyler Eifert situation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-draft-2019-de-montez-sweat-to-skip-event-amid-heart-concerns/ar-BBW9m8n?ocid=spartandhp

[*Synric*]

Montez Sweat wasnt just a combine phenomenon. He was the best edge defender against the run according to PFF and put up 22 sacks and 30 TFL in his two seasons in the SEC.

As for the heart condition your article says it best...

Quote:"Because of privacy issues we are not allowed to comment specifically. But I will tell you that this is not news," his agent said in a statement at the time. "Montez is the same person that was medically cleared to play and dominate the SEC, the Senior Bowl, and the NFL combine. No change in health and no change in domination!"

[SunsetBengal]

(04-21-2019, 09:22 PM)Synric Wrote: Montez Sweat wasnt just a combine phenomenon. He was the best edge defender against the run according to PFF and put up 22 sacks and 30 TFL in his two seasons in the SEC.

As for the heart condition your article says it best...

Ha!  His agent would say that, now wouldn't he?  

[Au165]

The heart condition isn’t just a throw away thing. From what I have seen no current NFL player has ever had it but a couple soccer players in Europe do. Some teams think it can be managed but it could be through limiting snaps which I have not interest in for the 11th overall pick. It would not surprise me if he had a Maurice Hurst type fall.

Aside from that his pass rushing isn’t as great as people have liked to proclaim. He is stiff turning the corner and wins on a quick first step, especially against average and below average tackles. The fact he got shut out two years in a row against Alabama should scare people. His best production this past season came against inferior competition. He will be a solid run defender early in his career but I’m not sure he ever translates into a consistent double digit sack guy.

I personally believe Lawson still has more upside as a pass rusher with Hubbard being the early down run defender.

[*Synric*]

(04-21-2019, 09:26 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Ha!  His agent would say that, now wouldn't he?  

And true he was medically cleared to play in the SEC and to take part in all of the draft process even after medical exams. 

[SunsetBengal]

(04-21-2019, 09:28 PM)Au165 Wrote: The heart condition isn’t just a throw away thing. From what I have seen no current NFL player has ever had it but a couple soccer players in Europe do. Some teams think it can be managed but it could be through limiting snaps which I have not interest in for the 11th overall pick. It would not surprise me if he had a Maurice Hurst type fall.

Aside from that his pass rushing isn’t as great as people have liked to proclaim. He is stiff turning the corner and wins on a quick first step, especially against average and below average tackles. The fact he got shut out two years in a row against Alabama should scare people. His best production this past season came against inferior competition. He will be a solid run defender early in his career but I’m not sure he ever translates into a consistent double digit sack guy.

I personally believe Lawson still has more upside as a pass rusher with Hubbard being the early down run defender.

I deduced a similar opinion, simply by studying his game by game stats for the past two seasons.  I'll give one great example, Arkansas.  In 2017 Sweat lit Arkansas up for 2.5 sacks, and plenty of tackles.  This year, they pretty much shut him down.  I picked Arkansas, because they have really been a non-factor in the SEC, in recent years.  The fact that once they knew about him, they were able to game plan him right off the stat sheet, speaks much.  He also did very little versus Auburn, Florida, and Bama this year, either.  

[*Synric*]

(04-21-2019, 09:38 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I deduced a similar opinion, simply by studying his game by game stats for the past two seasons.  I'll give one great example, Arkansas.  In 2017 Sweat lit Arkansas up for 2.5 sacks, and plenty of tackles.  This year, they pretty much shut him down.  I picked Arkansas, because they have really been a non-factor in the SEC, in recent years.  The fact that once they knew about him, they were able to game plan him right off the stat sheet, speaks much.  He also did very little versus Auburn, Florida, and Bama this year, either.  

He destroyed Auburn lol. His worst games as a pass rusher were against Bama and Florida and in both those games he was great against the run...not to mention Mississippi State didnt score a single point against Bama in 2018 which means less opportunities to rush the passer.

[Au165]

(04-21-2019, 09:41 PM)Synric Wrote: He destroyed Auburn lol. His worst games as a pass rusher were against Bama and Florida and in both those games he was great against the run...not to mention Mississippi State didnt score a single point against Bama in 2018 which means less opportunities to rush the passer.

To be fair everyone destroyed Auburn last year, hence Stidhams down year. He had over 20 pass rushing chances against Bama and over 30 for Florida. He is for sure a plus run defender but his pass rush is so basic and dependent on being physically dominant.

I honestly think he is Sam Hubbard with more upside. Throw in the heart plus past character issues and I just can’t get behind him at 11. You tell me we move back to 25 and get him and I am pumped, just too risky for 11 in my mind.

[*Synric*]

(04-21-2019, 09:50 PM)Au165 Wrote: To be fair everyone destroyed Auburn last year, hence Stidhams down year. He had over 20 pass rushing chances against Bama and over 30 for Florida. He is for sure a plus run defender but his pass rush is so basic and dependent on being physically dominant.

I honestly think he is Sam Hubbard with more upside. Throw in the heart plus past character issues and I just can’t get behind him at 11. You tell me we move back to 25 and get him and I am pumped, just too risky for 11 in my mind.

You cant call passing attempts pass rushing chances. Just like you cant say every pass attempt is a pass protection set.

[Au165]

(04-21-2019, 09:56 PM)Synric Wrote: You cant call passing attempts pass rushing chances. Just like you cant say every pass attempt is a pass protection set.

Your claim was based on the score he didn’t have many chances. Now maybe you based that off watching each attempt, but I’d guess you based it on stats similar to how I just did. Point being he has never been affective against top tackle prospects. Even when he played K State Risner did fine against him, which some believe he will have to play guard in the pros (not me). You watch Dillard at the Senior Bowl against him and he did good as well.

I just see a guy who if he doesn’t win on first step he doesn’t win, and that’s a rare way to win consistently in the NFL.

[Whatever]

(04-21-2019, 09:28 PM)Au165 Wrote: The heart condition isn’t just a throw away thing. From what I have seen no current NFL player has ever had it but a couple soccer players in Europe do. Some teams think it can be managed but it could be through limiting snaps which I have not interest in for the 11th overall pick. It would not surprise me if he had a Maurice Hurst type fall.

Aside from that his pass rushing isn’t as great as people have liked to proclaim. He is stiff turning the corner and wins on a quick first step, especially against average and below average tackles. The fact he got shut out two years in a row against Alabama should scare people. His best production this past season came against inferior competition. He will be a solid run defender early in his career but I’m not sure he ever translates into a consistent double digit sack guy.

I personally believe Lawson still has more upside as a pass rusher with Hubbard being the early down run defender.

From my point of view, it's a very strong DL draft.  Why take the risk with his heart condition at 11 when there will be similar caliber players there?

I think he'll wind up like a Carlos Dunlap type player if his heart doesn't become an issue.  In other words, 7-9 sacks a year and a strong run defender.  I will say that a lot of the knocks on him are eerily similar to the knocks against Myles Garrett.

[*Synric*]

Quote:MONTEZ SWEAT, MISSISSIPPI STATE – 86.2 OVERALL GRADE

One of the best all-around defenders in the SEC, Sweat is solid against the run and pass. His 47 total pressures and 20.2% pass-rush win percentage both ranked second in the SEC. More importantly, Sweat brought the heat on third down as his 26.6% pressure percentage on third down was first in the SEC (min. 50 third down pass-rush snaps). In run defense, Sweat was at the top of the SEC as his 13.3% run-stop percentage ranked first among edge defenders with 150 run-defense snaps. His ability to get off blocks in the run game, coupled with his ridiculous wingspan (84.5 inches), make him a fierce defender no matter the down or distance.

Best edge defender in the draft against the run...best 3rd down pressure percentage in the SEC....Enough Said.

[Au165]

(04-21-2019, 10:18 PM)Synric Wrote: Best edge defender in the draft against the run...best 3rd down pressure percentage in the SEC....Enough Said.

Weird thing with PFF sometimes, he can lead all those categories and still only be ranked by them as the 83rd best player in college last year according to their article right after the season. Interesting enough he is behind 10+ edge guys with many of them in this very draft. It’s almost like PFF let the combine numbers influence their most recent discussions about being the best prospect and so on.

...or maybe they took into account he mainly dominated bad players across from him and disappeared against the good ones.

[*Synric*]

(04-21-2019, 10:35 PM)Au165 Wrote: Weird thing with PFF sometimes, he can lead all those categories and still only be ranked by them as the 83rd best player in college last year according to their article right after the season. Interesting enough he is behind 10+ edge guys with many of them in this very draft. It’s almost like PFF let the combine numbers influence their most recent discussions about being the best prospect and so on.

...or maybe they took into account he mainly dominated bad players across from him and disappeared against the good ones.

Best edge defender against the run. 2nd best in pressures in the SEC and first in pressures on 3rd down in the SEC...best conference in College.

Numbers back me up. You keep saying disappeared against better competiton but the only stat you are using is sacks. What were his pressure run stop percentage QB hits against Alabama and Florida?

[Au165]

(04-21-2019, 10:51 PM)Synric Wrote: Best edge defender against the run. 2nd best in pressures in the SEC and first in pressures on 3rd down in the SEC...best conference in College.

Numbers back me up. You keep saying disappeared against better competiton but the only stat you are using is sacks. What were his pressure run stop percentage QB hits against Alabama and Florida?

Not sure, I can probably grab that for you Tuesday when I’m in the office and can watch the tape again.

I pointed out that the service who has made these claims ranks him behind 10+ edge defenders including multiple guys in the SEC. how does one lead all these statistics yet get placed behind multiple guys at the same position in the same conference? This isn’t even in a draft ranking it’s a “top players in college” ranking.

You presented it as if it was some sort of cased close mic drop lol. I’m countering that it simply isn’t. I think the guy is limited in what he can do as a rusher when he can’t out athletic opponents . Watch his Florida and Bama tape, hell watch his K state tape against Risner (spoiler, Risner had the better day)

[SunsetBengal]

(04-21-2019, 10:51 PM)Synric Wrote: Best edge defender against the run. 2nd best in pressures in the SEC and first in pressures on 3rd down in the SEC...best conference in College.

Numbers back me up. You keep saying disappeared against better competiton but the only stat you are using is sacks. What were his pressure run stop percentage QB hits against Alabama and Florida?

A 13% stop rate vs. the run isn't good, no matter which defensive position you play.  You realize that means that when he had the opportunity to stop the runner, he was only successful 13% of the time, right?  That's plain shitty...

[Au165]

My thing is I don’t think he is terrible, I just don’t think he is great. I thought Barnett was a better prospect coming out of Tennessee a couple years ago and his success has been limited. I’d rather have Ferguson in the 2nd as I think his pass rushing upside is higher.

[*Synric*]

This is Montez Sweat vs Alabama.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BNg_Lv1qh8

Yea he disappears...

[Au165]

(04-21-2019, 11:19 PM)Synric Wrote: This is Montez Sweat vs Alabama.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BNg_Lv1qh8

Yea he disappears...

He gets washed past the pocket because of bad bend multiple times. He shows the lack of an inside counter move often in doing so as he could easily beat the over setting Tackle. He does do well chasing plays down from behind. Again, I got my notes at the office I’ll get them for you Tuesday.

[*Synric*]

(04-21-2019, 11:16 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: A 13% stop rate vs. the run isn't good, no matter which defensive position you play.  You realize that means that when he had the opportunity to stop the runner, he was only successful 13% of the time, right?  That's plain shitty...

It ranked him as the best edge run defender in the entire draft class...