Boom or Bust Draft

[OSUfan]

I think it was an outstanding draft and not a boom or bust type draft at all. The selections were extremely methodical and safe when looking at production/need selections. The least sexy drafts are usually the most productive. This draft was done with absolute direction and I for one loved it.

[Luvnit2]

My criteria is as follows:

Round 1 - Minimum needs to develop into solid starter by year #2
Round 2 - Starter by year 3
Round 3 - May never be a starter, but major contributor in on special teams and always active game day after year 1.

Round 4 - Anything after round 3, a plus if they make the team. Huge bonus if they start in 1st 3 years or become major ST solid contributor
Round 5 - Make the team and be active in all games by year 3

Round 6 and Round 7 - No expectation so any contribution is a major plus

Looking at my criteria, I see:
Williams will start at some point in year one and be solid by year 2 minimum.
#2 Sample - I see Sample getting at least 50% of the TE package snaps in year one and being a solid starter by year 2.
#3 - Pratt - I hope he can develop into starter by year #3 and great ST years #1

3 Picks round 4
#4 - Finley - I see him as a career backup better than what we had so an inexpensive option to back up starter and capable in time of winning games in the back up role
#5 - Wren - To expect him to be star drafting in round 4 is not realistic, so the only way I call him a bust is if he is not on roster by year #3
#6 Jordan - See Wren


Round 6 - Williams, Davis, Anderson - Making the team active roster is a plus, being active on games days is a plus. No potential for a 6th round pick to bust.

Round 7 = Brown No expectation, so if he makes the team a plus. If he or any 6th round pick contribute their 1st 3 years a major plus


I like our draft, I see very little chance for a bust draft. I think it is rated just average due to no WR's, QB's or RB's taken in first 3 rounds, the sexy picks are not there for the fantasy lovers. But, I think it will pan pout to be a better than average draft over the years.

[3wt]

(05-16-2019, 08:08 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: If you want to call it "meh".  It depends...

I'd call it middle of the road.

Some high points, low points, and average.

Nothing wrong with a balanced draft that fills out some spots and lands a few starters.

Definitely doesn't feel like a busted draft to me.

Just nothing exhilarating, but the blocking potential upgrade alone could spark our players on the offense side quite a bit.

Defense seems kinda lackluster by free agency and this draft.

That side of the ball I'm concerned about mostly because of LBers.

If the pass rush improves it will help.  Fingers crossed.

Yeah I am not happy with the free agency portion of the offseason - on either side of the ball, but especially with regard to the defensive side.

[3wt]

(05-16-2019, 10:30 PM)JWW1971 Wrote: Big Lap said something in his post draft analysis which I found really interesting, what he said was -

This might not look like a standout draft for us but this year we have a huge advantage.
With our new coaching staff that came in, a lot came from College football and either coached a few of these guys or coached against them.
They have first hand knowlege of a lot of these guys and already know what they can do.

I think a lot of people and other teams are going to get a surprise by a lot of our draft guys

I think you're right.   That's part of my take on the draft - Kool-aid aside - I think Taylor was very intentional in who he drafted, what their upside is and what kind of roster he's putting together.

He does not seem to shoot from the hip, but carefully evaluates the options and makes really good choices - and goes after what he wants as evidenced by the 2nd and 4th rounds.

Someone told me he thought the Davis pick was a throwaway pick.   That just does not seem like Taylor.

Two comments made by other posters stand out to me:  one that it is not flashy, but will be foundational;  and the other was that the draft is a crapshoot - which is really is.

But I love their process (draft wise) this year, and I think it is going to be, as you say, surprisingly successful

[3wt]

3wt Wrote: [url=http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Boom-or-Bust-Draft?pid=718251#pid718251][/url]

1. Germaine Pratt - Liked by most but loved by none.  Former safety with good production but stiff hips and limited athleticism;  BUT superior production, excellent speed, demonstrated ability to cover and a great tackler.
2. Renell Wren - Inconsistent performance.  Raw.  BUT - Big time size/ length, great quickness, motivated (late) towards practice and film work, when he's performing up to his capabilities is dominant.  I read that as he's inconsistent because of lack of experience not motivation or brains.  Deemed very coachable.
   
   
   
   • • What in the world is "STIFF HIPS"?????!?!?!?
     • The ability to change direction fluidly, facilitated by hips that tend to turn independently of  the upper torso
     • Did Renell start playing football in his freshman year of college??!?!?!!? What kind of lack of experience does he lack??????
     • Starting experience - consistent and numerous reps
       
3. Rodney Anderson - Talented and well sized running back with a significant history of injuries; BUT the film when he's healthy is excellent and has the potential to be the perfect backup to Mixon
   
   
   • • This is just horrific. A RB selected to be a backup. With this mentality we'll never win. We want a RB that CAN REPLACE Mixon or pay equal to him. What is this backup none sense. The back up should always be your star RB who will age and slow down with tear & wear in a couple of years. 
     • Rudi was a backup for years as Dillon was slowly starting to decline.  And with the attrition d/t injuries throughout the season we want someone who at least approximates Mixon's abilities.   Getting Anderson where we did puts us at least in the same ballpark.  Thus a good pick.
       

• 
    The rest of the analysis was pretty good. Price was believed to have been 1 of the 2 best Centers in the draft, he disappointed the first season and even by pre-season he was really struggling. Hopkins did a better job. Maybe time to scratch out Price as the future Center. Wasn't too impressed by Price at all.
  
  

[3wt]

(05-17-2019, 10:39 AM)OSUfan Wrote: I think it was an outstanding draft and not a boom or bust type draft at all. The selections were extremely methodical and safe when looking at production/need selections. The least sexy drafts are usually the most productive. This draft was done with absolute direction and I for one loved it.

This.  That's one of the things I liked about it.

[XenoMorph]

(05-17-2019, 11:00 AM)3wt Wrote: Yeah I am not happy with the free agency portion of the offseason - on either side of the ball, but especially with regard to the defensive side.

me either but the defense did play better down the stretch after the DC was canned...  getting some guys back healthy

and a new aggressive attitude and they might be good enough to keep us in it.  we wont know.  A lot of last years issue was scheme as it was mainly the same personel as the year before.

[BengalChris]

For a team like the Bengals that gets 87% of its starters from the draft, it needs two upgrade starters at a minimum from each draft for the team to improve.

If the team's first round pick becomes a starter, but is a down grade, then the team didn't improve and got worse. You cannot build through the draft with picks like that.

Just consider these stats:

A. On defense the only starter the team didn't draft is Preston Brown.

B. On offense the only starters the team didn't draft are Cordy Glenn (trade) and Miller (assuming Miller actually starts). The only reason the team traded for Glenn was because they whiffed so badly on OL draft picks. Both Glenn and Miller are down grades from the regulars they ultimately replaced (Whitworth and Zietler).

C. 19 drafted starters out of 22 starting players is ~87%.

D. This is how many starting players you need to draft each year to turn over the roster.

i. To turn over a roster in 6 years you would need 19/6 = 3.2 new starters from each draft over that 6 years.
ii. To turn over a roster in 7 years you would need 19/7 = 2.7 new starters from each draft over that 7 years.
iii. To turn over a roster in 8 years you would need 19/8 = 2.4 new starters from each draft over that 8 years.

This is assuming only the regular starting players, not part time starters due to injury.

The Bengals start these players from the draft whether or not they are an upgrade to the last guy if the last guy is gone simply because they have to start someone. They drafted Ogbuehi and even though the team knew full well that he wasn't getting it done they trotted him out there because they had no one else.

In addition the team is often behind the curve. Marvin Jones left after the 2015 season and his production wasn't replaced until last year with Boyd, 2018. That was 2 years of down grade at a position.

Mixon was a great pick in that he was an immediate upgrade to Hill and Bernard, and Mixon is a 3 down back you don't need to take off the field, except to rest him. There is really no need to go to a 3rd down back with Mixon as he can run routes and catch as well as any other back on the field and even better than a number of our WRs, who specialize in that.

To grade the draft we really should be looking at the number of upgraded starters, the number of down graded starters, non-starters and off-the-roster guys the team gets from it, as the Bengals will be starting guys, even if they suck. You can't grade a draft this way until you are a couple of years in though. It takes a couple of years.

 

[fredtoast]

(05-17-2019, 11:50 AM)BengalChris Wrote: In addition the team is often behind the curve. Marvin Jones left after the 2015 season and his production wasn't replaced until last year with Boyd, 2018. That was 2 years of down grade at a position.

Not true.  In 2016 Brandon LaFell had a better year (64 rec, 862 yds) than Marvin Jones ever had with the Bengals...….And here we go again, another thread about one topic (Bengals 2019 draft) derailed by a poster who can't do anything but complain about the Bengals front office and past moves.

Before we get into how many playoff games other teams have won in the last 27 years let me give you my prediction regarding the '19 draft......Some of them will underachieve and disappoint while some of them will succeed.  The draft is a crap shoot.  Even the best teams have high picks that flop, and every year there are some players from the lower rounds who become stars.

Personally I feel that Williams is one of the safest picks we have made in a long time.  I predict he will be a long time starter somewhere on the O-line.  After that who knows?  Traeyvon Williams could be a huge star like last year's undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsey (1065 yds, 5.4 avg) or 5th rounder Jordan Howard in 2016 (1313, 5.2).  Renell Wren was the 125th pick of the draft while Geno Atkins was the 120th.

Literally anything could happen with any of these players.

[sandwedge]

(05-17-2019, 12:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Not true.  In 2016 Brandon LaFell had a better year (64 rec, 862 yds) than Marvin Jones ever had with the Bengals

I never understood the love for Jones? Sure he was a good receiver, but he disappeared when he left because he didn't have AJ lined opposite of him.

[fredtoast]

(05-17-2019, 12:23 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I never understood the love for Jones? Sure he was a good receiver, but he disappeared when he left because he didn't have AJ lined opposite of him.

In 2017 Jones had over 1100 receiving yards and led the entire league in average per catch (18.0)

[Whodey614]

Anyone who disagrees that Marvin Jones's absence left a hole in this offense didn't watch 2015. Having two or more guys that can get open off the snap is a difference maker as we saw with Boyd stepping into LaFell's spot last year. Jones isn't a superstar, but he got paid for a reason and he's been more than adequate in Detroit. Yes, LaFell had good stats and he wasn't any scrub, but he was far from a threat that Jones possessed with his speed and ability to move in space.

People will bring up the offensive line being a mess (which it was) but it was the exact same lineup except for Andre Smith. Smith wasn't Ogbuehi awful but he had his fair share of drive killing penalties/sacks in 2015. Matter of fact, there are people on this forum that will disagree with the notion that the Bengals had a great OL in 2015 and say they only looked good because they had great weapons that could get open. Who was one of those weapons?? Enter LaFell and a rookie and the offense gets worse and opponents are able to attack the weak O-line more? Not a coincidence.

If we at least kept Sanu and still drafted Boyd, we would've fared much better. You don't reach for John Ross either in 2017 and you draft a better player in that scenario. That's a topic for another day, though.

[BengalChris]

(05-17-2019, 12:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Not true.  In 2016 Brandon LaFell had a better year (64 rec, 862 yds) than Marvin Jones ever had with the Bengals...….And here we go again, another thread about one topic (Bengals 2019 draft) derailed by a poster who can't do anything but complain about the Bengals front office and past moves.

Before we get into how many playoff games other teams have won in the last 27 years let me give you my prediction regarding the '19 draft......Some of them will underachieve and disappoint while some of them will succeed.  The draft is a crap shoot.  Even the best teams have high picks that flop, and every year there are some players from the lower rounds who become stars.

Personally I feel that Williams is one of the safest picks we have made in a long time.  I predict he will be a long time starter somewhere on the O-line.  After that who knows?  Traeyvon Williams could be a huge star like last year's undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsey (1065 yds, 5.4 avg) or 5th rounder Jordan Howard in 2016 (1313, 5.2).  Renell Wren was the 125th pick of the draft while Geno Atkins was the 120th.

Literally anything could happen with any of these players.

I think you are missing my point a little. If you replace a departing player with a less productive player then the team declines. If you replace them with a more productive player then the team improves.

The Bengals have to turn over a certain portion of their starters each year and since they won't go out get top flight starters in free agency those guys have to come from the draft.

"Could be", "potential", "might become", "maybe will be the next ____" are meaningless descriptions really. We have to see if these guys improve the team or not.

I too believe Williams was a safe pick and believe he'll be the best OT on the team by mid-season, if not before. That would be one upgrade though. Still need two more out of this draft and I'm just not seeing who two upgrades are just yet, which isn't odd given that they haven't played a season yet.

 

[SunsetBengal]

(05-17-2019, 08:19 PM)BengalChris Wrote: I think you are missing my point a little. If you replace a departing player with a less productive player then the team declines. If you replace them with a more productive player then the team improves.

The Bengals have to turn over a certain portion of their starters each year and since they won't go out get top flight starters in free agency those guys have to come from the draft.

"Could be", "potential", "might become", "maybe will be the next ____" are meaningless descriptions really. We have to see if these guys improve the team or not.

I too believe Williams was a safe pick and believe he'll be the best OT on the team by mid-season, if not before. That would be one upgrade though. Still need two more out of this draft and I'm just not seeing who two upgrades are just yet, which isn't odd given that they haven't played a season yet.

 

Which picks are you talking about?  Seems to me like every pick was pointed toward upgrading a specific position, save for the final 3 picks.  Davis, Anderson and Brown, are the only "flyer" picks I see, and even they seem to have good upside to them.

If Zac Taylor and his staff worked in concert with Duke Tobin to orchestrate that draft?  I'd say that Taylor and co. knocked it out of the park, as far as getting quality upgrades at positions that have been floundering.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-16-2019, 05:33 PM)3wt Wrote: Ross Tucker called our draft "Meh";   Kiper & McShay graded our draft out at A-

So we have a boom or bust draft here:

1. Jonah Williams - Dropped because no one could certify he'd be a quality tackle and because of ordinary measurable and athleticism; BUT superior production against elite competition, superior intelligence, love of the game, superior technique and mental toughness
2. Drew Sample - Roundly criticized pick because of paltry production in the receiving game and the belief he'd be there as late as the 4th round; BUT film showed that he was frequently open, caught everything thrown to him, was the consensus best blocking TE in the 2019 class and would not have been there in the 3rd Round
3. Germaine Pratt - Liked by most but loved by none.  Former safety with good production but stiff hips and limited athleticism;  BUT superior production, excellent speed, demonstrated ability to cover and a great tackler.
4. Ryan Finley - Meh QB in this class.   Tucker calls him, "Dalton Lite".   Average to below average arm.  Inconsistent.  BUT - when he's on he's VERY accurate, has great intelligence and is a big time competitor.
5. Renell Wren - Inconsistent performance.  Raw.  BUT - Big time size/ length, great quickness, motivated (late) towards practice and film work, when he's performing up to his capabilities is dominant.  I read that as he's inconsistent because of lack of experience not motivation or brains.  Deemed very coachable.
6. Michael Jordan - Has poor techniques and sluggish feet and is prone to quick combination moves; BUT has great size, was smart enough to make the calls as center and is likely to grow into his size as he cleans up his technique
7. Trayveon Williams - Smaller back with limited power and limited vision;  BUT gained mentally and physically in his last season, has great production is an alpha player that sparks the rest of the team.
8. Deshaun Davis - Smaller linebacker with average to slow speed;  BUT is very smart, knows where to be, sheds well and gets there quicker than faster linebackers - and hits like a tank
9. Rodney Anderson - Talented and well sized running back with a significant history of injuries; BUT the film when he's healthy is excellent and has the potential to be the perfect backup to Mixon
10. Jordan Brown - Good sized corner who is perceived as not being physical and a poor tackler;  BUT has terrific size/ speed ratio, has really good ball skills and can "smother" underneath routes
    

It's the Kool-Aid, rose colored glasses and homer time of the year I realize.  But I think the draft has the potential to be excellent.  And I'm intrigued by the UDFA QB as well.   I particularly am excited about the first 3 picks and Wren, Jordan and Davis.  They have the potential to be game changers by the end of the season.  So I'm saying BOOM.

What say you?  Boom or bust?

Barring injuries and growth it is definately a BOOM!

The Steelers Draft was meh....

[*jason*]

(05-17-2019, 09:49 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Barring injuries and growth it is definately a BOOM!

The Steelers Draft was meh....

I think our first 3 picks make somewhere between decent and major contributions this season. There's gotta be a guy that develops somewhere down the line outta the rest of the picks

[BengalChris]

(05-17-2019, 08:41 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Which picks are you talking about?  Seems to me like every pick was pointed toward upgrading a specific position, save for the final 3 picks.  Davis, Anderson and Brown, are the only "flyer" picks I see, and even they seem to have good upside to them.

If Zac Taylor and his staff worked in concert with Duke Tobin to orchestrate that draft?  I'd say that Taylor and co. knocked it out of the park, as far as getting quality upgrades at positions that have been floundering.

I'm not saying there isn't potential in this year's draft. I'm saying that the potential needs to materialize for 3 of these players for this draft to upgrade the team overall.


 

[OSUfan]

(05-17-2019, 08:19 PM)BengalChris Wrote: I think you are missing my point a little. If you replace a departing player with a less productive player then the team declines. If you replace them with a more productive player then the team improves.

The Bengals have to turn over a certain portion of their starters each year and since they won't go out get top flight starters in free agency those guys have to come from the draft.

"Could be", "potential", "might become", "maybe will be the next ____" are meaningless descriptions really. We have to see if these guys improve the team or not.

I too believe Williams was a safe pick and believe he'll be the best OT on the team by mid-season, if not before. That would be one upgrade though. Still need two more out of this draft and I'm just not seeing who two upgrades are just yet, which isn't odd given that they haven't played a season yet.

 

Guess what? You have the same situation when acquiring free agents. Because I player was productive in one scheme does not mean he is productive in another scheme and that seems to be lost upon many of the "we have to get bigger free agents" group. For every difference making free agent signing I believe you could easily find 3 complete bust free agent signings.

Williams - No brainer

Sample - Best blocking TE we have had since Reggie Kelly already and should immediately be on the field.

Pratt - Should instantly be the WLB for this team and be an upgrade in coverage.

No different than if you had 3 free agents coming from other teams. Because until the chips are down you do not know how those free agents are going to adapt to your team.

[Luvnit2]

(05-17-2019, 08:19 PM)BengalChris Wrote: I think you are missing my point a little. If you replace a departing player with a less productive player then the team declines. If you replace them with a more productive player then the team improves.

The Bengals have to turn over a certain portion of their starters each year and since they won't go out get top flight starters in free agency those guys have to come from the draft.

"Could be", "potential", "might become", "maybe will be the next ____" are meaningless descriptions really. We have to see if these guys improve the team or not.

I too believe Williams was a safe pick and believe he'll be the best OT on the team by mid-season, if not before. That would be one upgrade though. Still need two more out of this draft and I'm just not seeing who two upgrades are just yet, which isn't odd given that they haven't played a season yet.

 

I see what you are saying, but very hard to evaluate. Let's take 2018 production:

Williams versus ? Hart or A. Smith? Or will it be Glenn? If Glenn, will Glenn move to RT or guard so then that has to be thrown into the analysis.

Sample - Eifert was our starting TE and we got nothing so does that make Sample an automatic upgrade if he is a big part of the TE packages by his being there to block at a minimum?

Pratt - If Pratt replaces Burfict, almost anything will be an upgrade.

Very hard to factor in injuries and PT of the prior starters into the analysis because a lot of those starters are back also or could be switched to a different role on the team.

But using your criteria, Williams, Sample and Pratt are 3 guys that should be better than the production in 2018 by those starters/players.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-18-2019, 12:23 AM)jason Wrote: I think our first 3 picks make somewhere between decent and major contributions this season. There's gotta be a guy that develops somewhere down the line outta the rest of the picks

Agreed, of those later picks i expect Traveon Williams to contribute a lot if Mixon or Gio have an injury.

Wren also has crazy upside and Jordan is versatile and a good player that may surprise.

Deshaun Davis knows how to diagnose plays and he is smart. Overall just a great Draft with solid players to go with a bit of flash.