AJ Green - Probably his last season as a Bengal

[TopSix]

(08-05-2019, 07:59 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Mike Brown openly expressed his desire to keep AJ Green a Bengal. Green will be offered an extension of some sort. I do not remember the stats but I believe the Bengals winning percentage is significantly increased with Green compared to games without Green on the field. Green is a freak athlete that when healthy is very difficult to cover by most CB. I agree his health is a concern and the cost may be high to keep Green. I am curious to see how Green plays this year and if he suffers any other injuries or set-backs.

Well that isn’t a good sign

Mike brown isn’t a competent football decision maker

[HarleyDog]

There may have been negotiation, but sure all that was halted when he got hurt. If the team is smart (not banking that they are) then they should not move on a deal unless he’s able to stay healthy the rest of the year.

[THE PISTONS]

(08-05-2019, 08:14 PM)TopSix Wrote: Well that isn’t a good sign

Mike brown isn’t a competent football decision maker

On the other side of the coin, IF they don't extend or re-sign Green...they'll have more cap space...but it's not like they have been using that wisely.

They had $50+ million cap space this past offseason and the only guy they signed that could possibly be considered an upgrade was Miller.

As much as fans don't want to hear it, IF AJ leaves and a guy like Ross doesn't blossom into a star...we're entering rebuilding and probably 4-12, 5-11 type years.

[THE PISTONS]

(08-05-2019, 08:19 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: There may have been negotiation, but sure all that was halted when he got hurt. If the team is smart (not banking that they are) then they should not move on a deal unless he’s able to stay healthy the rest of the year.

This is a team that keeps bringing Eifert back. We say that about Eifert every year too.

Not you, but fans always seem to turn on the Bengals best players. The Pickens, Dillons, Palmers, and Spikes of the world. The issue isn't the players, it's the management.

[*psychdoctor*]

(08-05-2019, 08:14 PM)TopSix Wrote: Well that isn’t a good sign

Mike brown isn’t a competent football decision maker

I tend to agree, but I hope there is input by others including coaching staff so that there is a reasonable decision regarding Green's future as a Bengal.  I believe this will be Green's 9th season.  So a 3-4 year extension would appear reasonable given the nature of WR decline with the exception of Jerry Rice who was also a freak athlete.  

Here are some compelling stats regarding a players decline in the NFL...

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1683775-when-does-age-catch-up-to-nfl-players

Here is an interesting quote:

"From year two to year 10, the typical production of starting receivers basically doesn't change. There's an upward trend in the peak AVs, but that's it.

Year 10 begins a steep, steady decline in peak AV and a rise in average AV. This is the same effect we've seen before: Mediocre starters are stop playing, and the remaining elites are showing their age.
From Year 14 on, the small sample size starts making things squirrely. Also, there's the Jerry Rice Effect to contend with: He was so very good for so very long, the last three data points are all him.
If we go by age, the effect is even more pronounced:


Again, a big jump from year one to year two, then shockingly similar production until top AV peaks at 32 and begins a steep decline. Average AVs get a big bump as the decent starters fall off, but then they decline as well. After age 38, it's all Jerry Rice."

[TopSix]

(08-05-2019, 08:20 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: On the other side of the coin, IF they don't extend or re-sign Green...they'll have more cap space...but it's not like they have been using that wisely.

They had $50+ million cap space this past offseason and the only guy they signed that could possibly be considered an upgrade was Miller.

As much as fans don't want to hear it, IF AJ leaves and a guy like Ross doesn't blossom into a star...we're entering rebuilding and probably 4-12, 5-11 type years.

They are 19-28-1 over the last 3 years

Ross isn’t going to be a star. He can’t complete a catch and get tackled.

But sinking disproportionate money to a declining 32 year old won’t win games either.

I guess I sorta get why Mike looks to always extend their good draftees. He feels vindicated in his football decision making and wants to hold onto
Them forever.

[*jason*]

(08-05-2019, 07:59 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Mike Brown openly expressed his desire to keep AJ Green a Bengal. Green will be offered an extension of some sort. I do not remember the stats but I believe the Bengals winning percentage is significantly increased with Green compared to games without Green on the field. Green is a freak athlete that when healthy is very difficult to cover by most CB. I agree his health is a concern and the cost may be high to keep Green. I am curious to see how Green plays this year and if he suffers any other injuries or set-backs.

I don't remember it either, but I wanna say it's something like 5-11 without him. Not to stir the pot, but we must also remember that Dalton missed a chunk of those same games too...

[TopSix]

(08-05-2019, 07:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Why?

I choose Hines Ward.  He had a few 1000 yard seasons then had a 3 year stretch from age 29-31 where he never played a full season or had 1000 yard receiving.  Then he came back and had back-to-back 1000 yards seasons at age 32 and 33.

why is Roddy White a good comp for AJ Green. 

Age 31 season.

White had 8800 career yards

Aj Green Green has 8900

The both came in the league at age 23/34 - Took White 2 years to start

At age 31, White had 599 Career Receptions .   AJ has 602 at the same age.

White had 6 straight prime years of 1000+ yards, AJ had 5

53 to 63 career TDs at age 31. AJ wins

Both identical career 57.8% catch percentages

And Entering age 31 season, both averaged exactly 80 yards per game played. 

Then from age 32-34 . Whites production plummeted. He became a WR2-3 on the Falcons

That is all. 

[BengalChris]

(08-05-2019, 05:03 PM)TopSix Wrote: I hope the new regime can start to implement some forward thinking, strategic moves based around contracts and personel moving forward.

Cincinnati, as a Pro Sports City, has a long history of over paying veterans for past performance.   Fans and the teams becoming enfranchised with long term players, to the point where they want the player to 'Write their own ending' -  based on some misguided sense of loyalty.

The reality is the players, on the whole, have not contributed to much collective success.  And the feeling that they are 'owed' anything is a bad way to run a sports team.

The Bengals have to make tough decisions.  Even in the Trade Gio thread, there are posters saying 'I hope we keep him even though he is expensive, he is one of the good guys' - What does that even mean?  If you want to put feelings and niceties  above winning, then I guess that is how you want to operate.

AJ Green.

Going to miss the first 4 games this season.

That will put him at 21 missed games over their last 85 games.

And 11 of the teams last 20 games for 2018 and this season, respectively.

Is he the best WR to wear a Bengals uni ever?  Yes, without a doubt.    He is the most talented Bengal WR of all time.

Will he be 32 next year?  Yes

The bengals need to get used to the idea that AJ will not be here next year.  If he has a 12 game end of the season, and is fully healthy back from injury and does his typical 1000 yards, 8 TDs, 75 Grabs in 12 games - Fine, then consider a one year Franchise.


But that is the ONLY way I would have AJ on the team for 2020 - Extending him would be a big mistake at this point in his career. They need that money to go elsewhere, and paying a 31 YO,  oft injured WR 40-60 million for 3 more years is the exact wrong way to stay competitive in the NFL.

There's really no reason not to keep AJ Green. The team can extend him this season and Willie Jackson and Mixon next season.

It's easy to say to move on, but to move on to whom exactly?

They moved on from Whit and had no one to replace him and still don't have a comparable replacement, which has cost them badly. Until Jonah actually gets out there and does it, he's only a potential.

Just remember that Mike Brown will never sign a top flight free agent from another team, so if you have dreams of the team bringing in a young super star in free agency, just realize it's a wet dream and not the real thing.

 

[guyofthetiger]

I think the Bengals will try to extend AJ for another few years. AJ may decline a lowball offer though. However, I see AJ puts fans in the seats so the Bengals will pay him enough IMO. Lets hope he stays healthy regardless.

[BengalChris]

(08-05-2019, 08:14 PM)TopSix Wrote: Well that isn’t a good sign

Mike brown isn’t a competent football decision maker

So, what exactly is the solution to replacing Green's production on the field?

Do we just pray and hope that Ross becomes a football player? Do we lose to get a top 5 pick so we can draft another Green, if there is even one in next year's draft?

Do you believe that Mike Brown will spend big to bring in another team's top WR free agent?

 

[McC]

This will not be AJ's last season as a Bengal. To even think so is just ridiculous.

[TopSix]

(08-06-2019, 04:35 PM)McC Wrote: This will not be AJ's last season as a Bengal.  To even think so is just ridiculous.

Yes, it is ridiculous to discuss the Bengals second most expensive current player, who will be 32 next year and not under contract, who has missed 33% his games over the last 3 years, and who plays a position that historically declines right at this stage of his career.  

[yang]

(08-05-2019, 09:24 PM)TopSix Wrote: They are 19-28-1 over the last 3 years

Ross isn’t going to be a star.  He can’t complete a catch and get tackled.

But sinking disproportionate money to a declining 32 year old won’t win games either.

I guess I sorta get why Mike looks to always extend their good draftees.   He feels vindicated in his football decision making and wants to hold onto
Them forever.

I don't totally disagree with your assesement of signing Green since it would likely put dedicating more money to position group than is typical of how successful franchises do it.  Looking at it a while back a large contract for AJ puts us in the top 5 likely in percentage of pay for WR's.  I's just an awful lot of the percentage of your cap room. 

With that said, I completely disagree with your assessment of Ross.  Joe Goodberry did an excellent video series of every pass thrown his way and thn broke down the percentage of catchable balls and his is very respectable.   Given so many were deep balls thrown off target it's not really his fault.   I would be surprised if we don't see a massive 3rd year turnaround in the sytem which is perfect for him.   He will be a weapon teams will have to deal with.  Zach will get him in space and room to run.  He opens things up for Boyd and Green.....errr Malone. 

I also think Malone breaks out a bit too.  That makes Green expendable.   The fact is he will get a long term deal though.  This is the Bengals after all/

[fredtoast]

(08-06-2019, 05:33 PM)yang Wrote:  Joe Goodberry did an excellent video series of every pass thrown his way and thn broke down the percentage of catchable balls and his is very respectable.   Given so many were deep balls thrown off target it's not really his fault.

The passes were not off target.  Ross was in the wrong place.

If bad passes were the problem then we would see a horrible catch percentage from ALL of our receivers.  But that just did not happen.

[coachmcneil71]

I didn't quote anyone in particular, not looking for argument. Ts, he plays extremely hard, hence injuries are going to happen.
They should have never been on that field in Dayton. That is/was a foolish PR stunt that has cost us a game changing player, for a few weeks.

I'm going to let the season play out before I go jumping to any conclusions.

I can tell you this much, Josh Malone, Cody Core, and John Ross aren't striking fear in any NFL secondary.

[THE PISTONS]

(08-05-2019, 09:24 PM)TopSix Wrote: They are 19-28-1 over the last 3 years

Ross isn’t going to be a star.  He can’t complete a catch and get tackled.

But sinking disproportionate money to a declining 32 year old won’t win games either.

I guess I sorta get why Mike looks to always extend their good draftees.   He feels vindicated in his football decision making and wants to hold onto
Them forever.

It's a no win. It's the Whitworth scenario.

Option 1 ) Sink money into an aging star that is injured a lot and likely declining.
Option 2) Take the press hit letting him walk and have cap space that you will likely foolishly spend.

[Whatever]

(08-05-2019, 08:20 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: On the other side of the coin, IF they don't extend or re-sign Green...they'll have more cap space...but it's not like they have been using that wisely.

They had $50+ million cap space this past offseason and the only guy they signed that could possibly be considered an upgrade was Miller.

As much as fans don't want to hear it, IF AJ leaves and a guy like Ross doesn't blossom into a star...we're entering rebuilding and probably 4-12, 5-11 type years.

As much as I love AJ, a rebuild isn't going to depend on him.  It's going to depend on whether Taylor is a bit or a miss as a HC and the QB situation.  

[TopSix]

(08-06-2019, 08:51 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: It's a no win. It's the Whitworth scenario.

Option 1 ) Sink money into an aging star that is injured a lot and likely declining.
Option 2) Take the press hit letting him walk and have cap space that you will likely foolishly spend.

Ross is 5 Mill next year
Boyd will be 8 mill

They can not give a 32 year old, oft injured WR another 16 million/year  based on what he did in 2012-2017

They need to Build around OL and Defense via Free Agency.    They are tracking for 3-5 wins this year - Hopefully we dont win enough to miss out on Fromm, Hebert or Tua

[BengalChris]

(08-07-2019, 02:33 PM)TopSix Wrote: Ross is 5 Mill next year
Boyd will be 8 mill

They can not give a 32 year old, oft injured WR another 16 million/year  based on what he did in 2012-2017

They need to Build around OL and Defense via Free Agency.    They are tracking for 3-5 wins this year - Hopefully we dont win enough to miss out on Fromm, Hebert or Tua

Why not?

This team never builds via free agency.

How old are you, exactly?