Moving Forward: My Thoughts on Andy, AJ + Co.

[Wes Mantooth]

It's a pretty self explanatory title, but to explain further; here are my thoughts on various players and my opinions on the best approach moving forward with them. I would love to hear your thoughts too; on these guys, any others, and/or just the general approach from this day on. Discussion and debate is always welcome, just try not to kill eachother over some of these talking points.  Fwiw, I will be doing these in parts, just to clean it up a little and make for easier discussion.  

And here we go...

Andy Dalton


The man, the myth, the legend. The name that puts asses in seats around these parts; a mortal man who has his own dedicated forum here on JN, and the QB who has probably caused quit a few Thanksgiving tables to become heated enough to be more uncomfortable than current politics...

                  You love him, you hate him, you can't stop talking about him... Andy MF'n Dalton!


--- Not only do I keep this guy, I resign him to a new deal. I extend him. NOW. The sooner the better.


Yeah, you heard that right. I'm sure this opinion is bound to create the most discussion (Why we're leading off with him).  Let me explain my thoughts here a little:

The biggest thing to consider here (IMHO) is who are you going to replace him with, and what will be their cost?

See, here's the deal; I've personally never been a fan of paying a high priced veteran FA QB. NEVER.  It's almost always an act of desperation, and there's always a reason said QB was allowed to leave their former team.  Usually it's because they're not that good. And yet almost always you overpay. (See Cousins, Kirk; Smith, Alex; Foles, Nick)

Very few of these vet types elevate your QB play into the top tier , and rarely are they long-term solutions.  Most often you pay a huge premium because your current situation is a total mess, hoping and praying that a mid level guy maybe takes that next step, and/or is good enough to pull your whole team up a notch.  The problem is the rarely work their way into elite status, they're never young and full of untapped potential, yet your left paying a rate similar rate to guys that are elite, and/or are signing a potential driven, 2nd contract.

So here's the thing; most vet QB's allowed to hit the market are pretty average. We have average now. Argue all you want about whether you think he belongs in the 7-12 range, 16-20, whatever.  You basically have your great QB's, really good QB's, bad to awful QB's and then a huge chunk somewhere in the middle.  From like 7 or 8 to 22 or so it's just a clusterfrack of similarly capable QB's.  Andy is somewhere in that middle.

What you can find in FA, at a good value, are what I, and many others, like to call Band-Aids. Stop-gaps. Guys, vets you can bring in that are decent enough to give you a chance to win, while you search for that guy for the future.  These players generally see mid-level contracts, short in years, with manageable guarantees should you cut bait.

Guys, that's where I put a guy like Andy Dalton now, whether he's in house or not.  He's on that level, of that of a band-aid, stop gap QB.  That doesn't mean I want him long-term, and it doesn't mean I think he's a great QB. It just means I think he's capable veteran.

I'm of the opinion that signing a big FA is stupid, and that we won't find anyone better than Andy as a cheaper option in that mid tier range. So that leaves us with going the route of drafting are next QB.   And the beauty of rookie deals, even first round deals is they're cheap, and you've got a guy locked in to a 4-5 year deal.  Pairing Andy with even a first round rookie deal is more than manageable financially.

One of my biggest complaints with this franchise has been their lack of investment into the backup QB position. I've griped pretty much since Kitna left.  Jordan Palmer was an absolute embarrassment, and a blatant display of both nepotism and laziness.  Guys like Leflevor, Josh Johnson, Driscoll... Turd, turd, turd.  McCarron may have been adequate, but as soon as investment was needed to be made he was out. 

It's a pretty damn important position, and there is nothing wrong with investing in a safety net, should your guy godown.  There's no reason to sacrifice an entire season, just because you were either too lazy or too cheap to find a better backup than a Jordan Palmer or Josh Johnson.

So here's where I finally get to the point (Sorry!!!); What would I do?

I sign Andy to a short term extension. And I do it now, early, because it gives us a great deal of leverage.  The exact years aren't as important as are the cap hits and guaranteed dollars. But just for an example; A 2 or 3 year extension at about 12-14 per, with the first full season guaranteed, and sizable roster bonuses the following years.

Andy is not going to see a big deal once his deal is up, he's just not. While you think he might be on par with Foles, he won't see that type of deal once 2021 rolls around.  Not to mention, he's getting his money now instead of 18 months out, and it's coming from a franchise that has been loyal and more gracious to him than most would have been. So I think, could be wrong, but I think, it's a fair, and reasonable deal for both parties.

So where does that leave us (if done)?

Well, you now have Andy locked up for the next 3-4. You also have the ability to cut bait early, if a couple years in if it's apparent his replacement has been found.  You would have him at a rate similar to that of now, at less than the starting QB veteran average, and at an amount and length that does not hinder you in any way from drafting and resigning a kid coming in via the draft.

To me, that sounds about the best you can do right now.  Like I said earlier, why unload the money truck for a vet in FA, who may not even be much of an improvement?  Why look at Band-Aids when you basically already have one right, here right now?  Why draft someone number 1, then invest little to nothing in their backup should he get injured or bust out?


Invest in the position as a whole, look to the draft for top tier talent, and perhaps even develop in house.  And in the meantime, invest elsewhere. OL, LB, DL, etc.  Do NOT, do NOT overpay for a vet, and do NOT go cutting bait with your only QB has meaningful experience!!!  I don't care if you draft Tua at #1 or not. Andy Dalton still has immense value in that scenario.


Lastly, and I really can't understate this, I'm not sure you could ask for a better mentor or vet presence than Andy Dalton? What makes Andy an average, capable starting caliber QB is certainly not sheer talent.  It's a knowledge of the game and what he's asked to do. And it's work ethic too. The guy works hard and understands the position. He's not just skating by on arm strength and/or athleticism.

I think he makes for a great teacher, and role model for a young guy coming into the league. He's great in the locker-room, great in the community, and seemingly works extremely hard.  What better type of guy for a young guy to mirror? He's an everage starter, and makes for a great backup. The point is, he serves a lot of potential roles, which in turn allows for flexibilty in approach.

And that's why, after all of that, I extend him. It's not as simple as just moving on immediately and automatically getting better immediately.  It doesn't work that way, or everyone would do.  He still has value, and I think he needs to be here beyond next season.

Just my .02.  

[Clark W Griswold]

My understanding is that Dalton has another year on his contract so why re-sign him? If the team ends up with a high draft pick then Zac can take his QB in the first round and Andy can work with him for a year then let Andy go.

I am also leaning towards not giving AJ a new contract. If Ross and Boyd continue to shine then the age/injury/cost doesn’t make sense for AJ. I love the guy but he will be in his 30s.

This team needs to try and find a couple of good LBs through trades/FA/draft.
I also think they need to draft another lineman - maybe a guard in the second round and at least one more tackle. They have shown that you can’t have too many good O linemen but you can have too many mediocre ones.

[2MinutesHate]

(09-19-2019, 03:24 PM)Clark W Griswold Wrote: My understanding is that Dalton has another year on his contract so why re-sign him?  If the team ends up with a high draft pick then Zac can take his QB in the first round and Andy can work with him for a year then let Andy go.

I am also leaning towards not giving AJ a new contract. If Ross and Boyd continue to shine then the age/injury/cost doesn’t make sense for AJ. I love the guy but he will be in his 30s.

This team needs to try and find a couple of good LBs through trades/FA/draft.
I also think they need to draft another lineman - maybe a guard in the second round and at least one more tackle. They have shown that you can’t have too many good O linemen but you can have too many mediocre ones.

The Colts gave Brissett $15 million a year, so Dalton could possibly be had for similar money.  I think this team has way too many holes for a Top 5 QB to be very effective here anytime soon.  I say let Dalton continue to QB the team until the OL can be fixed enough to upgrade at QB.  The OL is ruining Mixon and they'd do the same to a rookie QB.  I don't see anyone worth much on this OL besides Jonah and that's if/when he recovers from injury.  Glenn is probably done, Smith walked in off the street and hell, Price is starting to look like a bust as well.  

With AJ Green making $15 mil/year and missing extensive time the last 3 of 4 years, to give him a raise seems crazy.  I think if this team falls to 0-3, they should look to try to trade him for OL/LB help.  With Ross and Boyd doing well, I think we have a decent bargaining chip here, not to mention AJ could go to a possible contender before he retires.  By next week it could very well be time to start seriously trying to rebuild this team for 2020.  After last week, I think the blueprint on how to dismantle the Bengals is pretty evident.  I'm expecting very little going forward, but I didn't have much hope for this season after they signed Hart to the big extension and were unable (or unwilling) to upgrade at LB or OL.

[J24]

I like Andy but dude is going to be expensive for this upcoming season and further on out. Why not trade him and get something of value. He should be able to get a third or fourth RD pick right?
Also use that money that you would spend on him on a Tackle( Bulaga) or/& a LB(Littleton) in free agency. This team isn't that far away from being a championship caliber team but they need to show the willingness to improve the bad spots on the roster by any means.

[*PhilHos*]

In all honesty, if we get a high draft pick, I think we do go QB in the first round this upcoming draft. Even if we don't, I think the coaches probably think highly enough of Finley that they would roll with him instead of re-signing Dalton.

I honestly don't see the Bengals re-signing Dalton when his current contract is up unless he plays lights out this and next season.

[WhodeyRay]

(09-19-2019, 05:24 PM)2MinutesHate Wrote: The Colts gave Brissett $15 million a year, so Dalton could possibly be had for similar money.  I think this team has way too many holes for a Top 5 QB to be very effective here anytime soon.  I say let Dalton continue to QB the team until the OL can be fixed enough to upgrade at QB.  The OL is ruining Mixon and they'd do the same to a rookie QB.  I don't see anyone worth much on this OL besides Jonah and that's if/when he recovers from injury.  Glenn is probably done, Smith walked in off the street and hell, Price is starting to look like a bust as well.  

With AJ Green making $15 mil/year and missing extensive time the last 3 of 4 years, to give him a raise seems crazy.  I think if this team falls to 0-3, they should look to try to trade him for OL/LB help.  With Ross and Boyd doing well, I think we have a decent bargaining chip here, not to mention AJ could go to a possible contender before he retires.  By next week it could very well be time to start seriously trying to rebuild this team for 2020.  After last week, I think the blueprint on how to dismantle the Bengals is pretty evident.  I'm expecting very little going forward, but I didn't have much hope for this season after they signed Hart to the big extension and were unable (or unwilling) to upgrade at LB or OL.

Could not have typed it better myself. Agree with it all except I haven't given up on Price yet. Waiting to see how he plays at guard. Remember how bad Boling sucked his first 2 years then turned out pretty good.

[WestCoastBengalsFan]

Stopped reading after sign him to a new deal and do it now, that makes zero sense. I took the time I saved by not reading the rest to take OP's mom out to a nice seafood dinner and never call her again.

Seriously though, no way I'm resigning Dalton to anything this year.

[THE PISTONS]

(09-19-2019, 06:05 PM)PhilHos Wrote: In all honesty, if we get a high draft pick, I think we do go QB in the first round this upcoming draft. Even if we don't, I think the coaches probably think highly enough of Finley that they would roll with him instead of re-signing Dalton.

I honestly don't see the Bengals re-signing Dalton when his current contract is up unless he plays lights out this and next season.

Probably all of that. I think their ideal scenario would be to draft one of Tua or Herbert. I think odds of either of those guys being a great Pro QB are fairly low though.

I think Lawrence is the next great QB.

The Pro of drafting a QB is a lot of our coaches have QB coaching experience so that should help him develop. The Con is drafted QB's have a high flop rate.

[Daddy-O]

(09-19-2019, 10:36 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Probably all of that. I think their ideal scenario would be to draft one of Tua or Herbert. I think odds of either of those guys being a great Pro QB are fairly low though.

I think Lawrence is the next great QB.

The Pro of drafting a QB is a lot of our coaches have QB coaching experience so that should help him develop. The Con is drafted QB's have a high flop rate.

The old saying "better the devil you know than the devil you don't".  


As I keep telling all my friends in regards to Dalton, who are you going to replace him with?  If you're going to move on you better be damn sure the replacement is as good or better than what you have.  Dalton is a good QB and still in his prime (I didn't say great).  Good QB's can win championships if the right pieces are in place around them.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(09-19-2019, 03:07 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: It's a pretty self explanatory title, but to explain further; here are my thoughts on various players and my opinions on the best approach moving forward with them. I would love to hear your thoughts too; on these guys, any others, and/or just the general approach from this day on. Discussion and debate is always welcome, just try not to kill eachother over some of these talking points.  Fwiw, I will be doing these in parts, just to clean it up a little and make for easier discussion.  

And here we go...

Andy Dalton


The man, the myth, the legend. The name that puts asses in seats around these parts; a mortal man who has his own dedicated forum here on JN, and the QB who has probably caused quit a few Thanksgiving tables to become heated enough to be more uncomfortable than current politics...

                  You love him, you hate him, you can't stop talking about him... Andy MF'n Dalton!


--- Not only do I keep this guy, I resign him to a new deal. I extend him. NOW. The sooner the better.


Yeah, you heard that right. I'm sure this opinion is bound to create the most discussion (Why we're leading off with him).  Let me explain my thoughts here a little:

The biggest thing to consider here (IMHO) is who are you going to replace him with, and what will be their cost?

See, here's the deal; I've personally never been a fan of paying a high priced veteran FA QB. NEVER.  It's almost always an act of desperation, and there's always a reason said QB was allowed to leave their former team.  Usually it's because they're not that good. And yet almost always you overpay. (See Cousins, Kirk; Smith, Alex; Foles, Nick)

Very few of these vet types elevate your QB play into the top tier , and rarely are they long-term solutions.  Most often you pay a huge premium because your current situation is a total mess, hoping and praying that a mid level guy maybe takes that next step, and/or is good enough to pull your whole team up a notch.  The problem is the rarely work their way into elite status, they're never young and full of untapped potential, yet your left paying a rate similar rate to guys that are elite, and/or are signing a potential driven, 2nd contract.

So here's the thing; most vet QB's allowed to hit the market are pretty average. We have average now. Argue all you want about whether you think he belongs in the 7-12 range, 16-20, whatever.  You basically have your great QB's, really good QB's, bad to awful QB's and then a huge chunk somewhere in the middle.  From like 7 or 8 to 22 or so it's just a clusterfrack of similarly capable QB's.  Andy is somewhere in that middle.

What you can find in FA, at a good value, are what I, and many others, like to call Band-Aids. Stop-gaps. Guys, vets you can bring in that are decent enough to give you a chance to win, while you search for that guy for the future.  These players generally see mid-level contracts, short in years, with manageable guarantees should you cut bait.

Guys, that's where I put a guy like Andy Dalton now, whether he's in house or not.  He's on that level, of that of a band-aid, stop gap QB.  That doesn't mean I want him long-term, and it doesn't mean I think he's a great QB. It just means I think he's capable veteran.

I'm of the opinion that signing a big FA is stupid, and that we won't find anyone better than Andy as a cheaper option in that mid tier range. So that leaves us with going the route of drafting are next QB.   And the beauty of rookie deals, even first round deals is they're cheap, and you've got a guy locked in to a 4-5 year deal.  Pairing Andy with even a first round rookie deal is more than manageable financially.

One of my biggest complaints with this franchise has been their lack of investment into the backup QB position. I've griped pretty much since Kitna left.  Jordan Palmer was an absolute embarrassment, and a blatant display of both nepotism and laziness.  Guys like Leflevor, Josh Johnson, Driscoll... Turd, turd, turd.  McCarron may have been adequate, but as soon as investment was needed to be made he was out. 

It's a pretty damn important position, and there is nothing wrong with investing in a safety net, should your guy godown.  There's no reason to sacrifice an entire season, just because you were  either too lazy or too cheap to find a better backup than a Jordan Palmer or Josh Johnson.

So here's where I finally get to the point (Sorry!!!); What would I do?

I sign Andy to a short term extension. And I do it now, early, because it gives us a great deal of leverage.  The exact years aren't as important as are the cap hits and guaranteed dollars. But just for an example; A 2 or 3 year extension at about 12-14 per, with the first full season guaranteed, and sizable roster bonuses the following years.

Andy is not going to see a big deal once his deal is up, he's just not. While you think he might be on par with Foles, he won't see that type of deal once 2021 rolls around.  Not to mention, he's getting his money now instead of 18 months out, and it's coming from a franchise that has been loyal and more gracious to him than most would have been. So I think, could be wrong, but I think, it's a fair, and reasonable deal for both parties.

So where does that leave us (if done)?

Well, you now have Andy locked up for the next 3-4. You also have the ability to cut bait early, if a couple years in if it's apparent his replacement has been found.  You would have him at a rate similar to that of now, at less than the starting QB veteran average, and at an amount and length that does not hinder you in any way from drafting and resigning a kid coming in via the draft.

To me, that sounds about the best you can do right now.  Like I said earlier, why unload the money truck for a vet in FA, who may not even be much of an improvement?  Why look at Band-Aids when you basically already have one right, here right now?  Why draft someone number 1, then invest little to nothing in their backup should he get injured or bust out?


Invest in the position as a whole, look to the draft for top tier talent, and perhaps even develop in house.  And in the meantime, invest elsewhere. OL, LB, DL, etc.  Do NOT, do NOT overpay for a vet, and do NOT go cutting bait with your only QB has meaningful experience!!!  I don't care if you draft Tua at #1 or not. Andy Dalton still has immense value in that scenario.


Lastly,  and I really can't understate this, I'm not sure you could ask for a better mentor or vet presence than Andy Dalton?  What makes Andy an average, capable starting caliber QB is certainly not sheer talent.  It's a knowledge of the game and what he's asked to do. And it's work ethic too. The guy works hard and understands the position. He's not just skating by on arm strength and/or athleticism.

I think he makes for a great teacher, and role model for a young guy coming into the league.  He's great in the locker-room, great in the community, and seemingly works extremely hard.  What better type of guy for a young guy to mirror?  He's an everage starter, and makes for a great backup. The point is, he serves a lot of potential roles, which in turn allows for flexibilty in approach.

And that's why, after all of that, I extend him. It's not as simple as just moving on immediately and automatically getting better immediately.  It doesn't work that way, or everyone would do.  He still has value, and I think he needs to be here beyond next season.

Just my .02.  

Well thought out, and I agree. The reason you get a deal done now, is so you can get a dicount rate. I'd sign a similar deal to what he's got now....with the ability to get out with no cap hit. Get Lawrence in the next draft, and cut bait when the kid's ready.

[sandwedge]

(09-19-2019, 05:24 PM)2MinutesHate Wrote: The Colts gave Brissett $15 million a year, so Dalton could possibly be had for similar money.  I think this team has way too many holes for a Top 5 QB to be very effective here anytime soon.  I say let Dalton continue to QB the team until the OL can be fixed enough to upgrade at QB.  The OL is ruining Mixon and they'd do the same to a rookie QB.  I don't see anyone worth much on this OL besides Jonah and that's if/when he recovers from injury.  Glenn is probably done, Smith walked in off the street and hell, Price is starting to look like a bust as well.  

With AJ Green making $15 mil/year and missing extensive time the last 3 of 4 years, to give him a raise seems crazy.  I think if this team falls to 0-3, they should look to try to trade him for OL/LB help.  With Ross and Boyd doing well, I think we have a decent bargaining chip here, not to mention AJ could go to a possible contender before he retires.  By next week it could very well be time to start seriously trying to rebuild this team for 2020.  After last week, I think the blueprint on how to dismantle the Bengals is pretty evident.  I'm expecting very little going forward, but I didn't have much hope for this season after they signed Hart to the big extension and were unable (or unwilling) to upgrade at LB or OL.

Pretty spot on. Honestly, I don't think Glenn's heart is in playing more. We need to find another OT. I do disagree about AJ though.

[sandwedge]

(09-19-2019, 10:36 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Probably all of that. I think their ideal scenario would be to draft one of Tua or Herbert. I think odds of either of those guys being a great Pro QB are fairly low though.

I think Lawrence is the next great QB.

The Pro of drafting a QB is a lot of our coaches have QB coaching experience so that should help him develop. The Con is drafted QB's have a high flop rate.

Not to make this a draft discussion, but what does everyone see in Herbert? Big kid, throw the ball a mile, but has a pitcher's wind up. Behind this line he will be killed.

[corpjet]

I don't resign any of them and also look to unload Geno and Dunlap.

I appreciate everything Andy has done but his new contract will require $20 mill plus and until we get the O-line fixed it doesn't matter who's back there

AJ has been a model citizen while here but his injuries are starting to take a toll, I flip hi before this years deadline if at all possible.

Correct me if Im wrong but we front load most of our contracts so getting rid of Carlos and Geno will sting a bit but not terribly. These guys have had a great careers in stripes but its time to go young. Mr Hubbard you are now the leader on the D-line, lead the troops!

At the end of the day we have a lot of holes to fill at OL, DT, LB and safety. We are a couple of years away, why resign any of these guys for the money they will and should demand

[*ochocincos*]

I am fine with keeping Dalton if Dalton continues to perform well in spite of not having a good run game.
I am fine with AJ leaving after this season as long as Ross continues to show he's emerged as a starting WR.
Next year's draft should be very offensive-heavy in the first round, so that's where I would expect the pick to go. Either OL, QB, or WR.
Get a LB (or two) in FA, as there look to be some good options.

[THE PISTONS]

(09-20-2019, 12:20 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I am fine with keeping Dalton if Dalton continues to perform well in spite of not having a good run game.
I am fine with AJ leaving after this season as long as Ross continues to show he's emerged as a starting WR.
Next year's draft should be very offensive-heavy in the first round, so that's where I would expect the pick to go. Either OL, QB, or WR.
Get a LB (or two) in FA, as there look to be some good options.

IF the plan is to let AJ walk after this year for nothing...then you trade him now for a 1st or 2nd Round pick to a team like the 49ers.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-20-2019, 12:52 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: IF the plan is to let AJ walk after this year for nothing...then you trade him now for a 1st or 2nd Round pick to a team like the 49ers.

Gonna be hard to do that when AJ Green isn't even healthy enough to play.

[Socal Bengals fan]

(09-20-2019, 11:39 AM)sandwedge Wrote: Not to make this a draft discussion, but what does everyone see in Herbert? Big kid, throw the ball a mile, but has a pitcher's wind up. Behind this line he will be killed.

Not a fan at all. Big kid with a big arm but awareness is off. Not very accurate at all . Oregon hasn’t produced a good pro since Dan Fouts.

[*PhilHos*]

(09-20-2019, 01:45 PM)Socal Bengals fan Wrote: Not a fan at all.   Big kid with a big arm but awareness is off.   Not very accurate at all .  Oregon hasn’t produced a good pro since Dan Fouts.

Better or worse than Dolegala?

[2MinutesHate]

(09-20-2019, 11:37 AM)sandwedge Wrote: Pretty spot on. Honestly, I don't think Glenn's heart is in playing more. We need to find another OT. I do disagree about AJ though.

Let's jump the gun here and say John Ross explodes this year.  He's going to want more money after the season as well, even though we have him for 2020 and the 5th year option in 2021 (which would be expensive for sure).

How would we pay all 3?  If we were to do so, would that come at the expense of other positions?  I think it would.  The Rams have Cooks, Woods and Kupp.  Cooks and Woods make good money, whereas Kupp does not.  My point is that I think it makes good business sense to pay 2 receivers big money and focus cap resources elsewhere.

Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if the FO is already considering letting AJ go either by trade or releasing him.  With his injuries becoming more frequent, I think they would've never waited this long to sign him if he was healthy.  I believe they have to wait to see what they have in John Ross first at this point and also see what they get out of AJ this year.  If Green gets over 750 yards for the season, I'd be surprised. 

[treee]

I agree. I think Andy is valuable to keep around whether you think he is the way forward or not. He's a proven commodity. He's a mirror of the team you build around him. Keep the guarentee low but the incentives competitive with whatever the league is dictating these days. And look for the next up-and-comer from the draft.