Bobby Hart-ejection

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-25-2019, 09:15 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Pressures probably are that simple.

For other positions, I've seen a qb make what's deemed a bad throw that gets caught that negatively shows on the qb.

RBs making bad blocks. For instance, Mixon never grades out well on a season.

DT is weird. No matter who we rotated in last year, seems like they graded atleast 70.

I'd be interested in where we had a thread and posted things we found about grading, etc.

Those are the kinds of things that bug me, when they're used as a measuring stick. QBR is an example where they use hard to define, subjective opinions that affect a rating. There are just too many elements involved to do that properly. 

A QB is throwing a spheroid at a moving target and they're going to negatively grade if it's not perfectly or almost (whatever that means) perfectly thrown? I've always been a fan of the K.I.S.S. principle.

re: The last highlighted sentence. That's where i had trouble with the numbers i posted earlier. They weren't exactly JN material--more like Around the NFL--but i didn't want to put it there because fewer would see it. So when Hart's name came up, it was a perfect time to just throw it in there--which could also lead it to getting buried or not seen as much--but it's better than in AtNFL. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-25-2019, 03:35 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I think that as a 3rd Tackle he'll be valuable. He's just mis-cast as a starter.

I would have loved to see Jonah and Glenn as the Tackles with Hart as #3.

But, they viewed Hart as a Tackle and Glenn as a RG. Glenn did surrender a large amount of pressures last year.

I am not sure of how many pressures, etc, but Hart has only given up one sack and has faced some real talent (at least Seatte and SF had it on their line).  I think he is progressing to becoming a quality starter.  

The offensive line has some decent pieces with Hopkins at Center, Miller/Price at RG, Jordan for LG, and Hart as he keeps improving.  I think Cordy may have played his last down.  He wasn't that good last year and that was healthy.  I fear his injury might end his career.  

The problem is they are now down to their 4th string T, 3rd string LG, and they haven't played together at all.  If they can get everyone healthy, I think the unit can be solid.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-25-2019, 04:45 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I've been wondering where to put this and this looks like as good a place as any. We've all had discussions about PFF grades, pro and con (mostly con because there aren't too many Bengals with good grades), so i wanted to do an analysis of their grading--if it looked consistent in regards to what players are doing--to see if how they are producing equates objectively to their grade, and along with that, are the grades consistent from player to player on different teams. 

To answer your question first, he's grading out below average; that is, he's not one of the top 32 OTs currently. He's grading in about the 65th(maybe slightly better) percentile with an overall grade of 57.1. To give some context...
68.0 or better is in the top 25% (top 16)
61.0 or better is in the top 50% (top 32)
55.3 or better is in the top 75% (top 48), and, 
40.0 is the bottom (64th)

I've been as skeptical as anyone on their grading system. Always loved their raw numbers and the different statistical breakdowns they have. That's the reason i wanted to see how "fair" their grading system is; not necessarily based on how well or bad they played but if it looked consistent based on other players of the same position. I, surprisingly, found that they are (based on these limited examples) fair in how players graded, compared to their peers. 

Looking at starting OTs, i based this on hurries and pressures given up. I wanted to find players that had similar numbers so that i could look at their grades to see if they were consistent. The first group here gave up a hight number of each (by high, i mean they were near or at the worst). 

M.Moses WAS---147pbsn---RT---2sk---3hit---10hur---15pr---3pn---57.1pbgr---53.4rbgr---55.3ogr
G.Ifedi ---SEA---132pbsn---RT---2sk---0hit---11hur---13pr---5pn---47.7pbgr---66.3rbgr---54.8ogr
A.Smith --CIN---112pbsn---LT---2sk---1hit---10hur---13pr---4pn---56.4pbgr---52.0rbgr---51.2ogr
B.Hart  ---CIN---149pbsn---RT---1sk---0hit----9hur---10pr---1pn---62.7pbgr---50.9rbgr---57.1ogr
KEY: pbsn=pass block snaps, sk=sacks, hit=hits on QB, hur=hurries, pr=pressure, pn=penalties, pbgr=pass block grade, rbgr=run block grade, ogr=overall grade

From these four, Bobby Hart has the best pbgr @62.7, giving up the least amount, across the board, of sacks, hits, hurries, pressure and penalties while having the most snaps played. The others pretty much fall in line, giving up more or less in different categories. The overall grade looks to be pretty close to taking the pbgr and rbgr together and dividing it by two, with a slight variance...when snap count or other minor issues are added(maybe ?). I don't know exactly how their formula works.

The next group of four gave up a lesser amount in these categores.

C.Hubbard CLV---92pbsn---RL---2sk---0hit---1hur---3pr---3pn---73.8pbgr---42.8rbgr---55.1ogr
G.RobinsonCLV--101pbsn---LT---0sk---2hit---1hur---3pr---4pn---73.9pbgr---65.5rbgr---68.0ogr
M.McGlinch SF----99pbsn---RT---1sk---1hit---1hur---3pr---3pn---69.5pbgr---45.9rbgr---48.9ogr
T.Brown   OAK----91pbsn---RT---1sk---0hit---2hur---3pr---2pn---75.6pbgr---79.8rbgr---75.1ogr

This group seems to follow the previous group in that Brown has given up the least amount of sk, hit, hur, pr, pn in total but doesn't follow that formula strictly as you can see that McGlinchy has the worst of the 4, but not the overall worst numbers; though the grades are close enough that you can't claim any kind of bias or unfairness. 

The next group of four are the top 4 overall grades.

L.Collins DAL-----107pbsn---RT---0sk---0hit---1hur---1pr---2pn---79.3pbgr---91.2rbgr---90.6ogr
M.Schwartz KC---137pbsn---RT---0sk---2hit---2hur---4pr---1pn---78.8pbgr---83.5rbgr---84.6ogr
T.Smith   DAL----107pbsn---LT---0sk---0hit---0hur---0pr---1pn---90.3pbgr---73.2rbgr---83.6ogr
A.Castonz IND----111pbsn---LT---0sk---1hit---3hur---4pr---0pn---78.3pbgr---73.8rbgr---79.1ogr

If you look at 'given up', you can see that Smith has the highest pbgr because he's given up zilch on pressures and the rest, and the only thing that stands out to me is that Collins has a grade similar to Schwartz and Castonzo even though he's only given up 2 hur/pr while the other two have given up a total of 6 and 7 hur/pr and each have given up hits while Collins has zero there. Even though Smith has given up nothing as far as pressures, Collins has the overall top grade when you factor in his run block grade. 

So, i was a bit surprised to find that even though i may still not agree with how they say someone has played, and the grade they were given, at the very least they are fair across the board, the majority of the time, and consistent. So, i'd say i'm leaning towards looking at their grading system in a more positive light and i'll be more willing to cite it in the future. 

EDIT: I originally had "not leaning" when i meant that i am leaning.

Great stuff, man.  Thanks for taking the time.  Very interesting.  Since I seem to have wavered from defending Dalton to Ross and now to Hart, here is one other argument I would make in his, and the entire offensive line's, defense.  The Bengals have been behind in every game.  They have had very few rushing attempts...probably the fewest in the league.  When an opposing defense doesn't have to worry about defending the rush at all, they are teeing off every snap with no fear of being caught in overpursuit and leaving their rushing lanes. 

That is why I have been saying I hope the Bengals line up with two TEs and pound the steelers with a lot of rushing attempts.  Even when there is only moderate success, they have to get them THINKING about run defense.  I was shocked to see that the Bengals didn't run ONE play-action fake in the first half against Buffalo...even if they are just faking a rush, it helps.  It helped provide one of the worst offensive halves of football in the Dalton-Green Era.  

One other quick note about your stats.  A lot of people wanted us to draft McGlinchey.  Looks like he isn't the all-world prospect many thought he was and I thought he was drafted as a LT.  Regardless, it goes to show that Hart is producing just as well in a less-balanced offense.  

[THE PISTONS]

(09-26-2019, 09:33 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I am not sure of how many pressures, etc, but Hart has only given up one sack and has faced some real talent (at least Seatte and SF had it on their line).  I think he is progressing to becoming a quality starter.  

The offensive line has some decent pieces with Hopkins at Center, Miller/Price at RG, Jordan for LG, and Hart as he keeps improving.  I think Cordy may have played his last down.  He wasn't that good last year and that was healthy.  I fear his injury might end his career.  

The problem is they are now down to their 4th string T, 3rd string LG, and they haven't played together at all.  If they can get everyone healthy, I think the unit can be solid.  

Price and MJ have been really bad...but they could and should improve.

Hart started the year ok, but his grade took a hit after last game. I'd say he's almost improved to a below average tackle. If he could keep improving to average, that would be nice.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-26-2019, 09:45 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Great stuff, man.  Thanks for taking the time.  Very interesting.  Since I seem to have wavered from defending Dalton to Ross and now to Hart, here is one other argument I would make in his, and the entire offensive line's, defense.  The Bengals have been behind in every game.  They have had very few rushing attempts...probably the fewest in the league.  When an opposing defense doesn't have to worry about defending the rush at all, they are teeing off every snap with no fear of being caught in overpursuit and leaving their rushing lanes. 

That is why I have been saying I hope the Bengals line up with two TEs and pound the steelers with a lot of rushing attempts.  Even when there is only moderate success, they have to get them THINKING about run defense.  I was shocked to see that the Bengals didn't run ONE play-action fake in the first half against Buffalo...even if they are just faking a rush, it helps.  It helped provide one of the worst offensive halves of football in the Dalton-Green Era.  

One other quick note about your stats.  A lot of people wanted us to draft McGlinchey.  Looks like he isn't the all-world prospect many thought he was and I thought he was drafted as a LT.  Regardless, it goes to show that Hart is producing just as well in a less-balanced offense.  

Yeah, average as he is (which is much better than bad) he's definitely underrated by Bengals fans. That's not to say he doesn't need to be replaced, just that he's not an immediate priority right now. Not as much as a couple other guys on the Oline and the LBs. 

I agree with you on the run game. I don't know how--because i don't really want to sacrifice drives with unproductive run after unproductive run--but they do need to try and get something going, better than they've attempted to this point. 

I'm gonna state this again, at risk of seeming like i'm beating a dead horse, but the QB position has a very large effect on the offense. Every first down pass gives the offense, potentially, three more plays, which in theory, gives you more opportunities to run the ball. It also keeps the defense off the field for that extra amount of time. Currently, the Bengals are 24th in ToP at 28:52. Against the Bills, they were down to 23:06. 

Re: McGlinchy, that is one that kind of makes me scratch my head. It's also something Pistons brought up, that i took a quick look at, and scratched my head a bit too. I can find instances where the grades don't seem to follow other grades, which leads me to assume that there are times in grading, where the eye test must come into play. If you look at McGlinchey's grade, he's done well in pass pro but he's been very poor in run blocking. When you average the two out, his overall grade is lower than you would expect for an average, so there must be something to a really poor grade dragging your score down more than just the average. 

When i look at the description of some of the grades, there will be a note like "weighted towards interceptions" which leads me to believe that negative things are more negative than positive things are positive, which would drage a grade down when taking those things into consideration. An example that comes to mind is the sack on Dalton, against the Bills, where he basically stepped right up into the sack. As a raw stat, it looks like someone else failed and Dalton got sacked, but by the eye test, Dalton caused the sack by running right into it. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-26-2019, 09:33 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I am not sure of how many pressures, etc, but Hart has only given up one sack and has faced some real talent (at least Seatte and SF had it on their line).  I think he is progressing to becoming a quality starter.  

The offensive line has some decent pieces with Hopkins at Center, Miller/Price at RG, Jordan for LG, and Hart as he keeps improving.  I think Cordy may have played his last down.  He wasn't that good last year and that was healthy.  I fear his injury might end his career.  

The problem is they are now down to their 4th string T, 3rd string LG, and they haven't played together at all.  If they can get everyone healthy, I think the unit can be solid.  

It's probably an unpopular opinion, but re-watching the SF game, i thought Jerry played well when he came in, in pass pro at least and i made a post that i would have started him against the Bills over Andre. When i check his grade, that's pretty much how PFF had him playing. Good in pass pro (76.5), poor in run blocking (49.9) and 66.6 overall. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-26-2019, 10:47 AM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Price and MJ have been really bad...but they could and should improve.

Hart started the year ok, but his grade took a hit after last game. I'd say he's almost improved to a below average tackle. If he could keep improving to average, that would be nice.

I'd agree that MJ has been really bad. Price has been below average, but better than MJ. I would keep him in at LG and try Jerry at LT.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

On Colin Cowherd I heard through 3 weeks they had Fitspatrick rated ahead of Lamar Jackson. It's hard to find their grades credible if that is the case.

[THE PISTONS]

(09-26-2019, 12:48 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: On Colin Cowherd I heard through 3 weeks they had Fitspatrick rated ahead of Lamar Jackson. It's hard to find their grades credible if that is the case.

Fitzpatrick grades out at 60.1 which is not good for a QB.
Lamar Jackson is at 70.8.
Andy Dalton is at 58.4.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-26-2019, 12:48 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: On Colin Cowherd I heard through 3 weeks they had Fitspatrick rated ahead of Lamar Jackson. It's hard to find their grades credible if that is the case.

If you're talking about PFF, i don't know where he got that. Fitzmagic is nowhere near Jackson. 60.1 to 70.8

[THE PISTONS]

(09-26-2019, 12:31 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: It's probably an unpopular opinion, but re-watching the SF game, i thought Jerry played well when he came in, in pass pro at least and i made a post that i would have started him against the Bills over Andre. When i check his grade, that's pretty much how PFF had him playing. Good in pass pro (76.5), poor in run blocking (49.9) and 66.6 overall. 

No doubt...Jerry held up well at Tackle. Actually better than Andre has on the season.

I don't know IF Jerry could hold up at Tackle for a whole game, but I'd be all for putting him out there trying it.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(09-26-2019, 12:31 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: It's probably an unpopular opinion, but re-watching the SF game, i thought Jerry played well when he came in, in pass pro at least and i made a post that i would have started him against the Bills over Andre. When i check his grade, that's pretty much how PFF had him playing. Good in pass pro (76.5), poor in run blocking (49.9) and 66.6 overall. 

Not unpopular here, I thought he played much better than Andre did myself.

[THE PISTONS]

I will say that IF you look at Fitzpatrick's stats and then Dalton's...that it's hard to believe Fitz is graded higher.

They must think the team around him is terrible and the reason for his bad stats.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-26-2019, 02:02 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I will say that IF you look at Fitzpatrick's stats and then Dalton's...that it's hard to believe Fitz is graded higher.

They must think the team around him is terrible and the reason for his bad stats.

Overall, yes. As a passer, they have Dalton higher (though, not enough higher IMO) and what is bringing Dalton way down is his running and fumble grades. Huge difference there between fitz and Dalton. 

Don't know though...i don't recall off-hand when Dalton's fumbles occurred and how their 'sacks taken' look, side by side. Dalton's stats are much better, even considering Dalton's lower than average comp% and almost the same number of INTs...seems like a lot of 'eye test' grading in some of the aforementioned areas. 

[THE PISTONS]

(09-26-2019, 02:31 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Overall, yes. As a passer, they have Dalton higher (though, not enough higher IMO) and what is bringing Dalton way down is his running and fumble grades. Huge difference there between fitz and Dalton. 

Don't know though...i don't recall off-hand when Dalton's fumbles occurred and how their 'sacks taken' look, side by side. Dalton's stats are much better, even considering Dalton's lower than average comp% and almost the same number of INTs...seems like a lot of 'eye test' grading in some of the aforementioned areas. 

Yep. IF you take out some of the Bengals drop that should be catches...his completion % would be a little better too.

[Roland]

(09-23-2019, 06:51 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Like I said to the moron on Twitter, Ceej and Hopkins are also standing around doing **** all; why aren't you giving them the same treatment?

Its clearly the END of the play, give it up.

This is what has been puzzling about the run game this year.   I've seen more linemen blocking nobody than I've ever seen.  Sometimes you'll see a lineman intent on heading downfield ignoring a free hitter that just goes right past him.  Hopefully this just goes to what Taylor has said about the problem being a different guy on each play missing an assignment and at some point it will click with them.  Not saying they'll become good, but maybe good enough to avoid so many negative plays and that would help.

On Hart's ejection I went back and looked at the coaches film.  The clip ends before he makes contact with any official (he did block his man on the play with help from a chip by Gio btw).  He's walking off toward the sideline looking down into the endzone where the Bills are celebrating.  Not surprised that he might have bumped into an official but it would have been just an accident.  He wasn't being animated or aggressive with anyone.  Maybe he didn't see it was an official and gave it one of those reflexive push-offs you see when they run into each other.

   

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-26-2019, 02:33 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Yep. IF you take out some of the Bengals drop that should be catches...his completion % would be a little better too.

Yessir. His 'adjusted completion percentage' takes him up to 16th, if you set minimum drop backs at 50% of 158 (most db up to now).  

Better than 21st, unadjusted. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-26-2019, 02:38 PM)Roland Wrote: This is what has been puzzling about the run game this year.   I've seen more linemen blocking nobody than I've ever seen.  Sometimes you'll see a lineman intent on heading downfield ignoring a free hitter that just goes right past him.  Hopefully this just goes to what Taylor has said about the problem being a different guy on each play missing an assignment and at some point it will click with them.  Not saying they'll become good, but maybe good enough to avoid so many negative plays and that would help.

On Hart's ejection I went back and looked at the coaches film.  The clip ends before he makes contact with any official (he did block his man on the play with help from a chip by Gio btw).  He's walking off toward the sideline looking down into the endzone where the Bills are celebrating.  Not surprised that he might have bumped into an official but it would have been just an accident.  He wasn't being animated or aggressive with anyone.  Maybe he didn't see it was an official and gave it one of those reflexive push-offs when they run into each other.

I've seen a few of those too and "WTF?"d. Sometimes, that's the assignment, get to the second level and trust the back to make them miss. Sometimes it's a missed assignment and sometimes they're supposed to chip, then get to the second level. 

Always something though...

[THE PISTONS]

This will be unpopular, but I think a certain percentage of the running issues is on the RB's. Mixon did a tremendous job of making something out of nothing last year.

Last game we saw glimpses of that.

I wonder if the 'easy' training camp and not playing him much in the preseason contributed?

When I say a certain percentage is on the backs I mean maybe 25-35%. The run blocking is bad. I just don't know that it's this bad.

[bonesaw]

Self Star Check

Edit: Lookie there...I got some stars too